Orton's Arm Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 (edited) Interesting. We have screwed up the 8th, 9th, 11th and 12th. We never had the 10th to bust out on, but here come the speedy, ticket selling WR imo. 8th = Whitner 9th = Spiller 11th = Maybin 11th = McKelvin 12th = Lynch That's two running backs, two defensive backs, and a defensive player with the size and strength of a DB and the speed of a LB. At least a first round bust at WR would be something new. Edited January 2, 2012 by Edwards' Arm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 If they take a WR, just pencil them in for 5-7 wins next season as well. The wheels keep on spinning... Why just a WR? Look...If they blow the Pick, if they don't make good UFA moves, if the young players don't get better, if Fitz continues to be bad Fitz...If any or all of these things happen they could very well be right back picking in the Top 10 again... If they pick Alshon Jeffery at #10 overall and he turns out to be the next great thing at WR that is a HUGE upgrade and a piece of the puzzle...They got a stud in the 1st Round last year and they need another stud...They need to continue to get difference making players...They desperately need to get better Coaching on Defense or they are simply not going to be able to take the next step regardless... I don't really care much about what position the Bills Draft in 2012...They just need to Draft a stud and make a slew of other good moves to improve this Team...If they take a WR it better be a good one...I'm sure there were plenty of Detroit Lions Fans who felt they did not need to take another Top 10 WR when they Drafted Megatron...It's all relative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Why just a WR? Look...If they blow the Pick, if they don't make good UFA moves, if the young players don't get better, if Fitz continues to be bad Fitz...If any or all of these things happen they could very well be right back picking in the Top 10 again... I can only offer a respectful opinion..... Sometimes it doesn't matter if a draft pick is "good" in terms of a football team winning games. Spiller is good. Whitner might even be good. These players didn't help us win football games because we have no foundation. We have an average qb protected by a LT who is usually playing hurt or out. We have absolutely NO OLBs. Our pass rush is really sad. And looking at the games we did win, there was pressure and even sacks. Imo, if a kid such as Upshaw could bring us 7 or 8 sacks and provide steady pass pressure, it would translate to more wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thirty Year Fan Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 (edited) Only the Bills can lose twice to the Fish and finish with the same record and pick below them ! NON- PLAYOFF TEAM ORDER. . 1. Indianapolis (2-14) 2. St. Louis (2-14) 3. Minnesota (3-13) 4. Cleveland (4-12) 5. Tampa Bay (4-12) 6. Washington (5-11) 7. Jacksonville (5-11) 8. Carolina (6-10)* 9. Miami (6-10)* 10. Buffalo (6-10) 11. Kansas City (7-9) 12. Seattle (7-9) 13. Arizona (8-8) 14. Dallas (8-8) 15. Philadelphia (8-8) 16. NY Jets (8-8) 17. Oakland (8-8) 18. San Diego (8-8) 19. Chicago (8-8) 20. Tennessee (9-7) Edited January 2, 2012 by Thirty Year Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hater Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 (edited) We could trade up with the Rams or Vikings to pick RG3, yes its a pipe dream but there is no crime in hoping Edited January 2, 2012 by Matt183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjmac Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 We could trade up with the Rams or Vikings to pick RG3, yes its a pipe dream but there is no crime in hoping OK, come back to reality. It won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Not to worry - the Bills are positioning themselves for Matt Barkley in 2013 draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldstorage5 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 are you sue of the the 10 slot, its based on opponenets win %. Did you have the right data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTW2012 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 are you sue of the the 10 slot, its based on opponenets win %. Did you have the right data? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 (edited) Only the Bills can lose twice to the Fish and finish with the same record and pick below them ! NON- PLAYOFF TEAM ORDER. That's just wrong.... Then every draft, its like the teams right before the Bills pick gets the best players Then on top of that, Von Miller- AJ Green- Patrick Peterson all make the pro bowl Edited January 2, 2012 by Fear the Beard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I can only offer a respectful opinion..... Sometimes it doesn't matter if a draft pick is "good" in terms of a football team winning games. Spiller is good. Whitner might even be good. These players didn't help us win football games because we have no foundation. We have an average qb protected by a LT who is usually playing hurt or out. We have absolutely NO OLBs. Our pass rush is really sad. And looking at the games we did win, there was pressure and even sacks. Imo, if a kid such as Upshaw could bring us 7 or 8 sacks and provide steady pass pressure, it would translate to more wins. I agree with the point you're making, and would like to expand upon it. In my opinion, there are three pillars to a strong football team: the quarterback, the offensive line, and the defensive pass rush. A team which is strong in all three areas can then sprinkle in a few good skill players as needed. The last time the Bills had a real answer at quarterback, Jim Kelly was still wearing cleats. The last time the Bills had a good long-term offensive line, Kent Hull still donned a Bills uniform. And the last time the Bills had a real solution to the need for a pass rush, Bruce Smith was still a member of the team. The Bills' subsequent weakness in those three areas is why the last time the Bills won a playoff game, Kelly was under center. Another factor to consider is what I will call net player value. Suppose (for example) that Donte Whitner is a 45 (on a scale of 1 - 100) and George Wilson is a 55 on that same scale. In order to put Whitner on the field you have to put Wilson on the bench. The net player value of Whitner is 45 - 55 = -10. Spiller also has a low net player value, because putting him on the field typically involves putting Fred Jackson on the bench. This low net player value is not Spiller's fault--he is a good player. It's Nix's fault for using a top-10 pick on the one position where acquiring an elite talent was least necessary. If (for example) Nix had used the pick on a WR, then that WR and Stevie Johnson could have provided a good 1/2 combination. If that pick had been used on an offensive lineman, the offensive line could have been shuffled around as needed to allow the pick to become a starter, without having to bench a good lineman. The same could also be said about using the pick on a DL, a LB, or even a CB. Another flaw with the Bills' drafting strategy--at least inasmuch as they can be said to have a drafting "strategy"--is that there have been several times when they have drafted a player at a position at which they were strong already, only to allow an existing good player to leave via free agency a year or two later. For example, they drafted McKelvin 12th overall, and then proceeded to let Jabari Greer walk in free agency. They drafted Lynch, and then traded away McGahee. They drafted Spiller, and then traded away Lynch. This sort of thing is singularly stupid, at least if their objective is to win football games. It is not as though the Bills' rosters of the last ten years have been bursting with so much talent that they can afford to let some of their best players leave in free agency during the primes of their careers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Only the Bills can lose twice to the Fish and finish with the same record and pick below them ! NON- PLAYOFF TEAM ORDER. . 1. Indianapolis (2-14) 2. St. Louis (2-14) 3. Minnesota (3-13) 4. Cleveland (4-12) 5. Tampa Bay (4-12) 6. Washington (5-11) 7. Jacksonville (5-11) 8. Carolina (6-10)* 9. Miami (6-10)* 10. Buffalo (6-10) 11. Kansas City (7-9) 12. Seattle (7-9) 13. Arizona (8-8) 14. Dallas (8-8) 15. Philadelphia (8-8) 16. NY Jets (8-8) 17. Oakland (8-8) 18. San Diego (8-8) 19. Chicago (8-8) 20. Tennessee (9-7) I actually think the Bills offering three 1st round picks (for a franchise QB) in a trade up to the 1st or 2nd pick looks plausible. Vikings - they are not going to offer three firsts to move up one spot especially after burning a first last year on Ponder, that would be using four first round picks in a row to find their QB after giving their rookie QB only one season. Browns - Holmgren likes his GM position too much to not have first round picks the next couple of years. He seems like a guy who'd want to find a guy to develop if he's not sold on McCoy. Redskins - clearly Matt Flynn's destination. Jaguars - see Viking's entry. Dolphins - even if the Dolphins offered the same as the Bills team's would think the Bills' first round pick positions would be much higher up in the coming drafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Another flaw with the Bills' drafting strategy--at least inasmuch as they can be said to have a drafting "strategy"--is that there have been several times when they have drafted a player at a position at which they were strong already, only to allow an existing good player to leave via free agency a year or two later. For example, they drafted McKelvin 12th overall, and then proceeded to let Jabari Greer walk in free agency. They drafted Lynch, and then traded away McGahee. They drafted Spiller, and then traded away Lynch. This sort of thing is singularly stupid, at least if their objective is to win football games. It is not as though the Bills' rosters of the last ten years have been bursting with so much talent that they can afford to let some of their best players leave in free agency during the primes of their careers. Their objective is NOT to win football games - it is to put out a product that will sell as many tickets and merchandise as possible in July, August and September. I believe that is Bill From NYC's main point, and I agree with it. They're not building a foundation because they don't want to have to make the investment it would take to win long-term. The drafting history you've set forth is yet another indicia of that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thirty Year Fan Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Its not the tenth pick yet could be 8 or 9 or 10...... we could be picking 8th,.... fix title please wrong we are picking tenth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 (edited) I can only offer a respectful opinion..... Sometimes it doesn't matter if a draft pick is "good" in terms of a football team winning games. Spiller is good. Whitner might even be good. These players didn't help us win football games because we have no foundation. We have an average qb protected by a LT who is usually playing hurt or out. We have absolutely NO OLBs. Our pass rush is really sad. And looking at the games we did win, there was pressure and even sacks. Imo, if a kid such as Upshaw could bring us 7 or 8 sacks and provide steady pass pressure, it would translate to more wins. Don't get me wrong...I know The Bills need Pass Rush in the worst way...I'm REALLY uncertain if any Prospect from this coming Draft, especially at #10 overall, is going to be the answer to those woes...We'll see...The last time this Organization went out looking for Pass Rush help they Drafted Maybin...And despite the fact that it turns out Maybin can rush the passer a bit, it was a disaster for The Bills...What I see from this group of College Pass Rushers is a few guys with good ability who disappear WAY too often...There are good Prospects, but they are Prospects, and I don't see one worthy of the #10 Overall Pick...There will be no Marcell Dareus at #10 overall in the 2012 Draft...So IF The Bills decide this is going to be the Draft to fully address the Pass Rush, first off, I think Bills Fans will be disappointed with the results (again)...And secondly they better Trade Down (and we all know that is not happening)...In contrast if a Kid like Jeffery is there at #10 Overall I think your getting incredible value...And I also think there will be at least one REALLY good OT available at #10 as well...I'm going to go ahead and say it now, I don't think this is the year to be looking for high 1st Round Pass Rushers...Teams reach every year looking for magic in that department...The great ones are few and far between... All I'm saying is this...IMHO this Team is WAY closer to 5-10 than they are 10-5...And that means they have holes all over the field...And yes Defense and Pass Rush is a huge need, but if a player is available at another position of need that GREATLY upgrades that position...A player that will be a perennial Pro-Bowler well...They have to take him...WR, CB, DE, OLB, QB, O-Line...It does not matter...They just have to get the best guy and move forward... Edited January 2, 2012 by KOKBILLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ko12010 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 This is most likely esp given Wilson blaming fitz struggles on lack of Wes and rbs..... Proves he never watched a game this year. Hopefully upshaw in 1 and Tate in 2. I believe the correct name for rb's is "runners" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombstone56 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Don't get me wrong...I know The Bills need Pass Rush in the worst way...I'm REALLY uncertain if any Prospect from this coming Draft, especially at #10 overall, is going to be the answer to those woes...We'll see...The last time this Organization went out looking for Pass Rush help they Drafted Maybin...And despite the fact that it turns out Maybin can rush the passer a bit, it was a disaster for The Bills...What I see from this group of College Pass Rushers is a few guys with good ability who disappear WAY too often...There are good Prospects, but they are Prospects, and I don't see one worthy of the #10 Overall Pick...There will be no Marcell Dareus at #10 overall in the 2012 Draft...So IF The Bills decide this is going to be the Draft to fully address the Pass Rush, first off, I think Bills Fans will be disappointed with the results (again)...And secondly they better Trade Down (and we all know that is not happening)...In contrast if a Kid like Jeffery is there at #10 Overall I think your getting incredible value...And I also think there will be at least one REALLY good OT available at #10 as well...I'm going to go ahead and say it now, I don't think this is the year to be looking for high 1st Round Pass Rushers...Teams reach every year looking for magic in that department...The great ones are few and far between... All I'm saying is this...IMHO this Team is WAY closer to 5-10 than they are 10-5...And that means they have holes all over the field...And yes Defense and Pass Rush is a huge need, but if a player is available at another position of need that GREATLY upgrades that position...A player that will be a perennial Pro-Bowler well...They have to take him...WR, CB, DE, OLB, QB, O-Line...It does not matter...They just have to get the best guy and move forward... INTERESTING BUT YOU base everything on your own opinion..you repeat the same overused ,overworn ,"this organization".comment ..understand something please .TOM DONAHOE AND JOHN GUY ARE GONE! those guys were clowns, as useful as a rubber crutch,,nix is on the right track so try a original thought . parroting old comments is tiring to read ,is this sully? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffaloed in Pa Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 rd1 best olb rd2 best ilb sheppard is slow and doesn`t shed blockers period. rd3 best olb available. go the steelers route. Keep drafting them till you get a good one. rd4 center We need depth here. rd5 wr. Speed we need rd6 wr. another speed type. rd7 cb. can`t get enough. I need alittle more time to fill in the names. No QB you ask ? We are stuck with Fitz for a couple years,so deal with it. We also need a monster in the middle,run stuffer in free agency. a free agent Ilb and Q.B. also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Their objective is NOT to win football games - it is to put out a product that will sell as many tickets and merchandise as possible in July, August and September. I believe that is Bill From NYC's main point, and I agree with it. They're not building a foundation because they don't want to have to make the investment it would take to win long-term. The drafting history you've set forth is yet another indicia of that problem. I have seen evidence which supports the conclusion you have reached. If you are correct--as you very well may be--there are several possible reasons why. 1) Ralph is more interested in money than in winning. This seems odd, considering that he can presumably afford whichever luxuries he himself would want or desire anyway. His heirs will receive a very rich inheritance when he dies, regardless of how the team is run over the next few years. 2) Those running the organization are more confident in their ability to extract money from the fans than they are in their ability to create a long-term winning football program. In a perfect world they would like to win games and make money. But they figure this isn't a perfect world, and one of two isn't too terrible. 3) It is felt there is less risk, and therefore more job security, with a ploy to make money than with an effort to build a winning team. If you trade the house for a franchise quarterback--as I suggested in another thread--and if he soon experiences a career-ending injury, then there go all your carefully laid plans for a winning team. The Bills' marketing plans are less subject to this kind of random risk. It could be pointed out that a strong marketing effort and the creation of a winning team are not mutually exclusive. The Bills sold plenty of merchandise and tickets back when Polian was GM. While a winning team will probably require a higher payroll than a losing team, it is not exactly as though the Bills of the last ten years have been wise in their spending. The contracts given to Lawyer Milloy, Langston Walker, Cornell Greene, Peerless Price (the second time around), Chris Kelsay, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and others come to mind as examples of poor spending decisions. Some of those poor spending decisions--such as the Terrell Owens signing--are explicable in marketing terms. Most just seem like bad football decisions, and would seem to justify the views of those within the organization who lack confidence in the Bills' ability to field a good team. The problem with substituting hype for performance is that sooner or later you wear out your welcome with the fans. The Detroit Lions are a good example of this. Detroit is similar to Buffalo in that it's a mid-sized Northern Rust Belt city, with an industrial base long past its prime. Due to decades of ineptitude, the Lions do not have a fan base which is nearly as large or as supportive as is that of the Packers. In the '60s the Bills won some AFL championships. The '70s were not great, but at least they had OJ Simpson and the Electric Company. In the late '80s the team started coming into its own, followed by four consecutive Super Bowl appearances in the early '90s. Later in the '90s the team still had a good defense, and would have won a playoff game had it not been for the Music City Miracle. But the playoff drought has now reached its twelfth year. Memories of the Super Bowl years--or even the Wade Phillips era--are starting to fade. If this ineptitude is allowed to continue, then over the long run the Bills' fan base will likely become like that of the Lions, back when the Lions were in the midst of decades of ineptitude. On the other hand, given Ralph's age, he is not necessarily focused on the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I did not know Upshaw came with character concerns. I know, I know, charges dismissed, but still. Bill, what say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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