CSBill Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yes scoring a TD to go ahead by 7 is insane. What were they thinking. like crazy Eddie insane . . . darn fools, trying to score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fezmid Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yes scoring a TD to go ahead by 7 is insane. What were they thinking. Right, we should've scored a TD against the Patriots as well, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Right, we should've scored a TD against the Patriots as well, huh? Totally different situations. We run the clock out in that situation. We kick the FG here we leave at least 3 mins. The way our defense was playing, you go for the kill shot. Fitzy missed the throw. It sucks but I liked the play call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fezmid Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Totally different situations. We run the clock out in that situation. We kick the FG here we leave at least 3 mins. The way our defense was playing, you go for the kill shot. Fitzy missed the throw. It sucks but I liked the play call You're assuming Freddy wouldn't be able to get a first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 You're assuming Freddy wouldn't be able to get a first? Seeing as after the 80 yard run he was averaging 2.7 YPC, 3 carries would net 8.1 yards, I would say there is definitely a chance he doesn't get the first. Not to mention our best interior lineman, Levitre, was at LT. Look, I feel like this has been argued to death, in the shout box, in threads. I just don't get were getting 7 points on the road, by throwing to a wide open receiver(by NFL standards), is such a terrible decision. The play was open. The Giants knew we were just gonna sit back and run, or at least thats what they thought. No overhead safety help meant SJ13 just had to beat his man, which he did. Great play call. Running into 8 men in the box, is not. And is playing to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Chan made the right call. If you dont understand it you are stuck in backwards NFL logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 You're assuming Freddy wouldn't be able to get a first? That only gets us to 2 mins when you kick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Everyone complaining about the call are the same people who would complain if we ran 3 times up the middle for 3 yards and missed a fg or if we made it and giants come back and get a TD for the win would complain Chan wasn't playing to win or was playing jauronball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 the call was fine. we have to remember this is a day where wind blew the ball out on a kickoff. as devils advocate it think we hit a 49 yarder. i didnt mind the call. it was ok. we lost the turnover battle there. naaman had a first down and dropped it either earlier in that series or the series prior. there where a number of things that went into that loss. i have less of an issue with the play call and more with how the ball was thrown. easy td if fitz leads his reciever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fezmid Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Chan made the right call. If you dont understand it you are stuck in backwards NFL logic This seemed like a good time to use my newly created NFL data warehouse to see what history tells us (473,000+ plays from 2000-2010 for the entire NFL). (see this thread for background: http://forums.twobil...ata-xml-format/ ) I ran the query to see how often a team runs vs. throws on 1st down, inside the 30 yard line, in a tie game, with 5 or less minutes left in the game. Turns out there have been 1,817 plays run in this situation. Of those plays, teams ran the ball 1,038 times, or 57.1% of the time. I then decided to look at how often teams go for a TD in that situation. Since 2006 (the time I have stats on whether the ball was thrown short or deep), there were 812 plays that fit the above specification, and only 47 of them were deep passes -- in other words, since 2006, teams have run a deep pass to the endzone only 5.8% of the time in that situation... And only 13 of those 47 passes ended up in a touchdown. So it looks like the NFL as a whole would prefer to run the ball or do short controlled passes to drain the clock in this type of situation. Doesn't make it right or wrong, just shows what the common logic is in that situation. (and it's easy to argue that the Giants wouldn't be expecting that type of play so it was a good call; I disagree, but it can go either way). EDIT: Hang on, looks like I forgot to filter on 4th quarter... Let me re-run the numbers... Ok, there were only 241 instances that fit the above, and of those 168 were runs (69.7%). Only 1 (since 2006) was a deep pass -- New England vs Indy in 2006, incomplete to Gaffney. PLAY_DESC YEAR WEEK AWAY HOME -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (4:39) T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to J.Gaffney. 2006 20 NE IND What's weird is that Buffalo has faced this situation 11 times since 2000, has knelt the ball once and has only passed the ball twice. PLAY_DESC YEAR WEEK AWAY HOME -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (:50) An.Smith up the middle to TEN 20 for no gain (J.Thornton). 2000 1 TEN BUF (:45) D.Flutie pass to S.Morris pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 9 yards (R.Mickens). 2000 9 NYJ BUF (:32) D.Flutie to NYJ 16 for -2 yards. QB kneels 2000 9 NYJ BUF (1:31) D.Bledsoe pass incomplete to E.Moulds. 2002 4 CHI BUF (4:49) T.Henry right guard to HOU 26 for 4 yards (J.Foreman, J.Sharper). 2002 6 BUF HOU (1:01) T.Henry right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2002 15 SD BUF (3:54) W.McGahee left end to CIN 14 for 3 yards (I.Ohalete). 2005 16 BUF CIN (2:00) W.McGahee left guard to CIN 5 for 2 yards (K.Kaesviharn; J.Thornton). 2005 16 BUF CIN (:10) J.Losman right guard to JAC 24 for no gain (M.Stroud). 2006 12 JAC BUF (1:54) A.Thomas right guard to MIA 25 for no gain (D.Pope). 2007 10 BUF MIA (:39) F.Jackson right tackle to NYJ 28 for -2 yards (S.Pouha, D.Harris). 2009 6 BUF NYJ 11 rows selected. Ok, enough of my database; I present my final project on Wednesday so I've been going a little stat crazy the past week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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