sarmanuscg07 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 How is this team 6 wins better than last year? Pick me pick me...... Answer, they aren't 6 games better then last year. Its a 6-10 season... 7-9 at the absolute best. Our new found ability to be an average run defense will be the reason for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Please remember that most of the paid NFL guys like Peter King don't follow the NFL 32 times more closely than hardcore Bills fans do, but probably somewhere around 10 times more closely. With 32 teams for them to follow and about 20 of them way more important than the Bills (read: any of the teams who might get an NBC game Peter King writes about or a decent playoff shot), the math clears with him spending a lot less time following the Bills than we do. While I like whenever we get respect like his 8-8 prediction rather than Clayton thinking we will be in line for Luck, neither of those guys really brings much to the table in terms of Bills analysis. I think we are realistically a 7-9 team this year. It is very easy for a 7-9 team to finish 5-11 if things go wrong or 9-7 if things go well. It takes a whole lot of good for a 7-9 team to go 10-6, and it takes a whole lot of bad for a 7-9 team to finish 4-12. So I think we are a 7-9 team that I am rooting for to overachieve by a few wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Please remember that most of the paid NFL guys like Peter King don't follow the NFL 32 times more closely than hardcore Bills fans do, but probably somewhere around 10 times more closely. With 32 teams for them to follow and about 20 of them way more important than the Bills (read: any of the teams who might get an NBC game Peter King writes about or a decent playoff shot), the math clears with him spending a lot less time following the Bills than we do. While I like whenever we get respect like his 8-8 prediction rather than Clayton thinking we will be in line for Luck, neither of those guys really brings much to the table in terms of Bills analysis. I think we are realistically a 7-9 team this year. It is very easy for a 7-9 team to finish 5-11 if things go wrong or 9-7 if things go well. It takes a whole lot of good for a 7-9 team to go 10-6, and it takes a whole lot of bad for a 7-9 team to finish 4-12. So I think we are a 7-9 team that I am rooting for to overachieve by a few wins. Perfect..and if luck favors us, we may be able to sneak into the playoffs as a WC. It all starts with winning AT HOME and winning within the division.. The bills have to win @ home against their division rivals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Marcel Dareus +1 win Two new ILBs +1 win Shawne Merriman +1 win Dave Wannstedt +1 win Fitz preparing as #1 QB for first time +1 win CJ Spiller and/or Brad Smith +1 win really? what 10 games do they win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 really? what 10 games do they win? There are only a couple of games on the schedule I'd chalk up as "almost certain" losses -- meaning less than a 25% chance the Bills win. Those are the games @ San Diego and @ New England*. Otherwise, while the Bills will be underdogs in the majority of their games, any of them are "winnable." I could easily see 10 wins as follows: KC, OAK, CIN, NYG, WAS, MIAx2, TEN, DEN, and NYJ (in BUF) That presumes being swept by NE*, and also losing to NYJ (in NJ), SD, PHI, and DAL Mind you, almost any of these could go either way, as we all know, but if one is taking an optimistic viewpoint I think this is a plausible analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 There are only a couple of games on the schedule I'd chalk up as "almost certain" losses -- meaning less than a 25% chance the Bills win. Those are the games @ San Diego and @ New England*. Otherwise, while the Bills will be underdogs in the majority of their games, any of them are "winnable." I could easily see 10 wins as follows: KC, OAK, CIN, NYG, WAS, MIAx2, TEN, DEN, and NYJ (in BUF) That presumes being swept by NE*, and also losing to NYJ (in NJ), SD, PHI, and DAL Mind you, almost any of these could go either way, as we all know, but if one is taking an optimistic viewpoint I think this is a plausible analysis. eball, you never post nonsense but I would have to respectfully disagree that 10 wins is possible. I do see your point that there arent many sure losses and many games could be close. I think sometimes as Bills fans we are somewhat blind to the improvement other teams have made as well. Also this time of the season is the worst for message boards, just take a look at the Chiefs board, as no fan really knows what their team has in store and everyone is anxious. That being said, I really think the additions may add 2 wins. Anyone seriously stating 7-10 wins is being very optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 eball, you never post nonsense but I would have to respectfully disagree that 10 wins is possible. I do see your point that there arent many sure losses and many games could be close. I think sometimes as Bills fans we are somewhat blind to the improvement other teams have made as well. Also this time of the season is the worst for message boards, just take a look at the Chiefs board, as no fan really knows what their team has in store and everyone is anxious. That being said, I really think the additions may add 2 wins. Anyone seriously stating 7-10 wins is being very optimistic. 10 wins *isn't* possible? From a mathematical viewpoint, you're wrong. Is it improbable? Sure, until we win some games we won't be seen as anything other than mediocre at best. But to say 10 wins is *impossible* is simply false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 10 wins *isn't* possible? From a mathematical viewpoint, you're wrong. Is it improbable? Sure, until we win some games we won't be seen as anything other than mediocre at best. But to say 10 wins is *impossible* is simply false. Thats silly, of course its mathematically possible, its also technically possible that Jasper loses 80 pounds and turns into the reincarnation of Bruce Smith. So in the context of message board banter, you knew exactly what was meant when i said 10 wins isnt possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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