Johnny Hammersticks Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 (edited) I realize that it is very difficult to trade down in the first round, particularly when you are picking in the top five. The thought of trading down a few spots really intrigues me, however, as I see a lot of defensive talent in the first few rounds of this years draft. I have been thinking a lot about possible trade down scenarios, and IMHO, I have come up with one that kind of makes sense. Here goes... Buffalo trades #3 overall to San Francisco. San Francisco selects Blaine Gabbert with the #3 overall pick. Harbaugh gets his franchise QB. In return Buffalo receives the #7 overall pick along with the 49ers' 2nd(#45) and 4th(#107) round picks. Again, I know this is highly unlikely, but after racking my brain, this trade seems to make sense for both teams for a few reasons. 1. We all know that Buffalo has a lot of holes to fill. Having that extra 2nd round pick makes it fairly likely that Buffalo walks away with 3-4 legitimate starting caliber players. 2. Harbaugh tried to recruit Gabbert to come to Stanford, as he felt Gabbert was the best pro-style QB coming out of high school. 3. The 49ers would be able to jump ahead of Arizona and Cincinnati....both teams that are in great need of a QB. 4. The 49ers have 10 picks in this years draft. Even after the trade, they would still be left with the #3 overall, their 3rd round pick, a 4th round pick (obtained in a trade with San Diego), their 5th round pick, 2 sixth round picks, and 2 seventh round picks. What do you think? In this scenario, would Buffalo be asking for too little in return? Am I crazy in assuming that Harbaugh covets Gabbert that much? Do the 49ers' decision makers like Gabbert as much as I think Harbaugh does? All of this is assuming, of course, that Gabbert makes it to the #3 pick. Thoughts? Edited March 16, 2011 by Johnny Hammersticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 If Gabbert is a franchise QB, then why would we be trading our pick and passing up on him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted March 16, 2011 Author Share Posted March 16, 2011 If Gabbert is a franchise QB, then why would we be trading our pick and passing up on him? Please read the OP again Bangarang. I never said that Gabbert is a franchise QB. A major part of the "trade scenario" was my speculation that Harbaugh covets Gabbert, and that the 49ers would be willing to trade up past Arizona and Cincinnati to get who they might perceive to be their franchise guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent H Jr Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 If Gabbert is a franchise QB, then why would we be trading our pick and passing up on him? Because we are the Bills, and if we are there at 3, we will either pick a CB (not named Peterson) or a RB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertpaul49 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Because we are the Bills, and if we are there at 3, we will either pick a CB (not named Peterson) or a RB You are wrong, the Bills will select someone who is rising fast on the draft charts due to buzz who could be available in the late first round or early second round then the Bills will trade back into the first round to select a position of need for a player that is not likely to pan out instead of the hall of famer they could have selected in the first round. On a more serious note, I really believe at this point that Buddy Nix is a real general manager, which the Bills have not had since Butler. I think we will learn a lot about Buddy with this draft. I am just praying that there aren't any surprises like Maybin or Eric Flowers, you know those what the heck were they thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haven Moses Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I think Washington may be a team willing to trade up to get a QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted March 16, 2011 Author Share Posted March 16, 2011 I think Washington may be a team willing to trade up to get a QB. I thought about this, but Washington doesn't have nearly the draft picks to play with that San Fran does. I believe they don't have a 3rd or 4th rounder this year. I'm not saying that they wouldn't mortgage their who draft, but I see it as unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Lets say the 1st pick is Newton and the second pick is Bower and SF wants to trade picks for Gabbert these are the players some people covet (Dareus, Fairley, Peteson, Miller, Quinn) so the choice is do you want your absolute choice or are you willing to have at least the choice of two out of the five (maybe more if Green or Amukamara are picked before us) and some picks if you add Cam Jordan and J.J Watts to the mix you could push all the way out to Washington at 10 and still be sure to get one of these (Dareus, Fairley, Peteson, Miller, Quinn, Jordan, Watts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 (edited) Does anyone have verification about trading future picks without a CBA in place? I've heard various sources report both that you CAN trade future picks without a CBA and that you CAN'T trade future picks. So I really don't know what's accurate. Without getting a 1st rounder next year, there's no scenario worth trading down for in my opinion. You cannot pass up on an elite prospect without getting a (high) first rounder in compensation next season. It's settling for mediocrity. Edited March 16, 2011 by tgreg99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Does anyone have verification about trading future picks without a CBA in place? I've heard various sources report both that you CAN trade future picks without a CBA and that you CAN'T trade future picks. So I really don't know what's accurate. Without getting a 1st rounder next year, there's no scenario worth trading down for in my opinion. You cannot pass up on an elite prospect without getting a (high) first rounder in compensation next season. It's settling for mediocrity. yeah except there is no consensus who is the elite player is, Bowers, Fairley, Peterson, Green, and now Dareus have all been on the big boards as #1 BPA and Both Newton and Gabbert have been #1 on different Mocks- also if you're talking about getting the best 3-4 DE there is no consensus there either with Dareus, Fairley, Jordan, Watts all getting votes OLB some like Miller and some like Quinn, WR many like Green but some like Jones the only consensus I've seen is Peterson is the #1 DB thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bring Back Kelly Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Washington, Minnesota, Miami, Seattle and possibly Cleveland could be after a QB in this draft. Any one of these teams can trade up to get a QB a head of our pick. Seattle probably would not do that since they lost a pick to us for the Lynch trade. but the others could. I do see Minnestoa as a team to watch out for. I would hate to see Miami move a head of our pick to get a QB. They have been terrible at evaluating QB's over the years, but They might be desperate enough to move up this year. Minnesota is not sold on Travereus Jackson. They I think would be the most obvious choice of teams on the move. They need a QB just as bad as we do. I do hope that we go D-Line first any way, but I hope all the good QBs are not gone. I like Kapernick out of Nevada. Ponder is good and I like the TCU QB too. If we get one of them, I hope we dont have to grab one in the second, because I think thats early for them, but if they are all getting picked up, we will need to get a good one. I dont want a guy like Devlin. Thats like getting another 3rd string QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UticaBill Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 (edited) Really simple, in a draft that is deep in talent at the very positions you covet you trade down a few spots and still grab a top player at his position and also pick up a quality role player or two. If someone offered us a 1+2 in the top 10 spots I would have to take it.... this year... A top 10 pick and two picks in the top 10 in the second round? I'll take that over a 1st next year any day! In the above example, Our #3 is worth 2200 on the NFL value chart.... the Niners 1+2 are worth 2010 for a difference of 190 or roughly a mid 3rd round pick. Knowing the 49ers have those extra late round picks and a desire to move up.... I'd ask initially for their 3rd.... comeback with their 4th, and the settle for one or two extra picks in the late rounds.... still just take a straight 1+2 but I'd make them sweat that one a little.... Now we aren't offering this trade to them, they are coming to us, so we have the position of power! Edited March 17, 2011 by UticaBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djrocks Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 If Gabbert is a franchise QB, then why would we be trading our pick and passing up on him? we need palyers,getting another 2 an4 and we could package those picks to get back into the second third of the first round and get a stud defensive player and we could possably still draft a QB @ 7 if cam falls or we would get a stud defensive player. of we could get a stud defensive player @ 7 and then get back into the first round and get our QB and still have our #34 pick in the second round and get a stud Defebsive player or ou startin RT. i think it would be a great trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 we need palyers,getting another 2 an4 and we could package those picks to get back into the second third of the first round and get a stud defensive player and we could possably still draft a QB @ 7 if cam falls or we would get a stud defensive player. of we could get a stud defensive player @ 7 and then get back into the first round and get our QB and still have our #34 pick in the second round and get a stud Defebsive player or ou startin RT. i think it would be a great trade. I think the Idea thing would be 1.Newton 2.Bower 3.Trade SF Gabbert 4. Green 5. Miller 6.Quinn 7. the Bills with the choice of Dareus, Fairley or Peterson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Really simple, in a draft that is deep in talent at the very positions you covet you trade down a few spots and still grab a top player at his position and also pick up a quality role player or two. If someone offered us a 1+2 in the top 10 spots I would have to take it.... this year... A top 10 pick and two picks in the top 10 in the second round? I'll take that over a 1st next year any day! In the above example, Our #3 is worth 2200 on the NFL value chart.... the Niners 1+2 are worth 2010 for a difference of 190 or roughly a mid 3rd round pick. Knowing the 49ers have those extra late round picks and a desire to move up.... I'd ask initially for their 3rd.... comeback with their 4th, and the settle for one or two extra picks in the late rounds.... still just take a straight 1+2 but I'd make them sweat that one a little.... Now we aren't offering this trade to them, they are coming to us, so we have the position of power! It's so simple, yet rarely happens. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 It's so simple, yet rarely happens. Makes sense. Bangarang, you're so droll. I enjoy you though. You're right, it's not at all simple to trade back when you are picking in the top five of the first round. That's why it very rarely happens. It's fun to imagine scenarios where this might happen, however, as having multiple picks in the 2nd round would be better for the Bills than picking a so called "top-tier" player at #3 (IMO). As I see it, there wouldn't be much of a drop off in talent when picking at #7 as opposed to picking at #3. A lowly Bills fan can dream....can't he? What else do we have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NastyNateSoldiers Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 (edited) With the rookie cap coming into play this year, teams will be more willing to move up. The lower the signing bonus, the lower risk. I can see the Pats trading up in this scenario The Pats have a young core of great players and will be facing a dilema if they were to use all there picks. They have 7picks in the first 4 rounds. 4 picks in the top 60. ( 17,28,33,60 ) the problem they will have is that they will have to much talent, and they will be forced to make some tough cuts come september. NE can trade up for a number of different players to name a few. Peterson, Dareus, Quinn, AJ Green, Von Miller. This will be my favorite scenario. We trade are #3 for there 17, 28, and 33. That leaves us with picks 17,28,33,34. #17-Ryan Kerrigan= edge rusher can play multiple fronts 3-4, 4-3 hybrid player #28-Phil Taylor= true Nose tackle. I call him Raji 2.0. #33-Justin Houston = let's go D again another hybid type player. I would love to see this but its more likely the Bills go RT here Gabe Carimi or Marcus Cannon. #34-Ryan Mallett or Kaepernick. I would take Mallett, and I'm still holding out hope that Buddy opens up his eyes on this kid but at the end of the day Kaepernick is a better fit for Chan ball. This scenario fills multiple needs for us and makes a lot of sense. I would do 10 back flips if we can pull this off Edited March 17, 2011 by DontCrossDaMoats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UticaBill Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 (edited) Well there is NO rookie cap for this year YET.... and we may not even have a season.... but either way it won't happen BEFORE the draft so NO... teams are NOT going to move up any more than in the past.... Edited March 17, 2011 by UticaBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsMagic1 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 You are wrong, the Bills will select someone who is rising fast on the draft charts due to buzz who could be available in the late first round or early second round then the Bills will trade back into the first round to select a position of need for a player that is not likely to pan out instead of the hall of famer they could have selected in the first round. On a more serious note, I really believe at this point that Buddy Nix is a real general manager, which the Bills have not had since Butler. I think we will learn a lot about Buddy with this draft. I am just praying that there aren't any surprises like Maybin or Eric Flowers, you know those what the heck were they thinking. Buddy was real astute last year taking Spiller and also getting Corny Green as a FA to solve opur RT issue so I am real relaxed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NastyNateSoldiers Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Well there is NO rookie cap for this year YET.... and we may not even have a season.... but either way it won't happen BEFORE the draft so NO... teams are NOT going to move up any more than in the past.... No, no no no no. Before the players decertified one of the key issues that they agreed with the owners was to implement a rookie cap. All teams know bout this and will act accordingly. Remember these rookies will just be drafted in April, but they will not be able to sign any contracts with the teams that drafted them until the labor deal is completed. And believe it there will not be any football next year if a rookie cap is not implemented first.. So take it for what its worth. ROOKIE CAP IS A GUARANTEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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