Bills 1st rd drafting history on front 7 of defense

[boyst]

There is a hypocrisy in blaming Nix for Maybin (when Nix was a scout) and not allowing that he had a strong positive effect on San Diego's drafts (when he was Assistant GM).

There was some great conversation on this type of issue today on Sirius.

 

What was discussed is the way scouting is done currently. That almost all of the franchises assign scouts regionally and often times these scouts are better at noticing a higher level of calibre player at some positions and faulter at others. I do not remember which show it was, but the guy said that in his tenure the team he was playing on had a scout who was cannot miss on a certain position (he would not name the team, guy, or position) but could not give accurate depictions of a players ability at another position. The head scout may have the ultimate say on who is better over another player - but his opinion is not as important as the GM's, coaches, or owners.

 

What I am saying is that we do not know Nix's opinion on Maybin, at least openly. We know some comments he has made that directly impact Maybin, and Gailey has said similar things. At this time, all we know is Maybin is on this roster and I am not ready to cut ties with him yet. Let him at least get through training camp, lets see how he looks at that point.

[Typical TBD Guy]

The history of drafting d-linemen in the 1st is filled with busts for every team. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=DL&type=position

 

Breaking news: drafting 20 to 23 year old college kids isn't an exact science, no matter how much hindsight people try to use.

 

With your fatalistic attitude, you are letting the Bills front office(s) off the hook for their gross incompetence. Could you provide some evidence to suggest that other teams have been as incompetent as the Bills have in drafting 1st round DL's and LB's? The info I provided in the OP - even without any comparison with other teams - looks pretty damning to me.

 

Since the AFL-NFL merger, the Bills have been 20% effective (2 of 10) at landing a 1st round DL or LB that was at least "mediocre." I'll define "mediocre" to mean capable of holding a starting NFL job about 3-4 years into his first contract...a pretty low expectation for a 1st rounder.

 

The 2 anomalies were Bruce Smith and Shane Conlan. Bruce Smith, of course, was a homerun pick. But I have a hard time giving the Bills' scouts too much credit here when 99% of casual football fans in 1985 would have made that same pick. Shane Conlan was an outstanding selection. We even traded down from 3rd to 8th to make this pick. If not for injuries, he might have been a Hall of Fame candidate. Guess who made that pick? None other than BILL POLIAN, one of the greatest GM's in modern NFL history. Polian went 1 for 1 in his selection of front-7 1st rounders.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

There was some great conversation on this type of issue today on Sirius.

 

What was discussed is the way scouting is done currently. That almost all of the franchises assign scouts regionally and often times these scouts are better at noticing a higher level of calibre player at some positions and faulter at others. I do not remember which show it was, but the guy said that in his tenure the team he was playing on had a scout who was cannot miss on a certain position (he would not name the team, guy, or position) but could not give accurate depictions of a players ability at another position. The head scout may have the ultimate say on who is better over another player - but his opinion is not as important as the GM's, coaches, or owners.

 

What I am saying is that we do not know Nix's opinion on Maybin, at least openly. We know some comments he has made that directly impact Maybin, and Gailey has said similar things. At this time, all we know is Maybin is on this roster and I am not ready to cut ties with him yet. Let him at least get through training camp, lets see how he looks at that point.

 

I think the biggest part of the problem is that they chase after a certain position and make desperate decisions and I don't think it is the scouting department (at least the lions share of the blame). And that after a player comes to Buffalo, he finds himself on a team without a good quarterback that loses lots of games, and a team that lacks leadership and motivation because it is so deep in a hole. I beleive that some of the players would have much better careers if they had been chosen by a better organization.

 

They haven't developed players well in Buffalo.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Thanks for replying Sisyphous.

 

I posted earlier that if you're gonna give Nix blame in one area, you have to give him credit too. There are posters here who want to blame him for the Maybin selection but don't want to give him credit for the drafting in San Diego. It was another way of saying what you said in your most recent post:

 

"But there is an inherent hypocrisy in giving one person all the credit for everything that is considered good and another person all the blame for everything that is considered less than good all the same."

 

There is a hypocrisy in blaming Nix for Maybin (when Nix was a scout) and not allowing that he had a strong positive effect on San Diego's drafts (when he was Assistant GM).

 

I don't really know how Nix will do as GM. I'm hopeful but it's been a mixed bag so far. On the other hand, no one is infallible…every organization has bad years…and it's too early to paint Nix as a failure, as some people here are willing to do.

Certainly, no one is infallible and I don't think Nix was a huge factor in the Maybin pick, fwiw.

 

Nix hasn't impressed me so far, but I'm obviously more skeptical and a tougher grader than some. That doesn't mean we're not both hoping he can put together a first-rate organization and that it will carry on in Buffalo well into the future. Hope and results often don't meet in the space of reality, though. <sigh>

[dave mcbride]

The Bills have had 54 first round draft picks in their history, and only 11 (about 20%) of those have gone to the DL and LB positions (which comprise about 30% of a roster). So right away, you can see that the Bills have not properly allocated first round resources to these 7 positions. The historical drafting percentage for a team's front 7 should really be closer to 40%, given the importance of stopping the run and rushing the passer to a team's success.

 

But now looking closer at these 11 picks:

 

1964, 6th overall - Carl Eller - a great pick and a Hall of Famer who unfortunately chose the NFL's Vikings over the AFL's Bills.

1970, 5th overall - Al Cowlings - oh boy.

1972, 1st overall - Walt Patulski - yikes.

1975, 19th overall - Tom Ruud - oops.

1977, 12th overall - Phil Dokes - d'oh.

1979, 1st overall - Tom Cousineau - terrible.

1985, 1st overall - Bruce Smith - finally!

1987, 8th overall - Shane Conlan - another solid pick!

2000, 26th overall - Erik Flowers - thanks a lot, Mr. Butler.

2006, 26th overall - John McCargo - thanks a lot, Mr. Levy.

2009, 11th overall - Aaron Maybin - thanks a lot, Dick.

 

Is it just me or are there a high number of epic draft busts in the above list? I'm not talking about sub-Pro Bowl play not commensurate with their draft spots; I'm talking about guys who could barely get on the field and stay in this league for more than a few years.

 

Two things stand out here:

 

1. The Bills could not scout a DL or LB worth a !@#$ throughout the 1970's.

2. From 1988-2010 (23 frigging years), the Bills only chose 1 DE, 1 DT, and 1 Maybin...all spectacularly legendary busts. Guess how many 1st round DB's the Bills took during that same 23-year period? EIGHT. Yep. EIGHT.

 

Just something to think about for this April's draft. Fairley, Bowers, Quinn, Dareus, Miller...do you think that Nix and Co. will pick one of them? And will they pick the right one?

 

P.S. For those interested, our other 43 first round picks went to the following positions: 3 QB, 10 RB, 6 WR, 3 TE, 10 OL, 11 DB.

Bruce Smith is probably the best DE in the history of the NFL, so I regard this as a rousing success story.

[Cash]

The Bills have had 54 first round draft picks in their history, and only 11 (about 20%) of those have gone to the DL and LB positions (which comprise about 30% of a roster). So right away, you can see that the Bills have not properly allocated first round resources to these 7 positions. The historical drafting percentage for a team's front 7 should really be closer to 40%, given the importance of stopping the run and rushing the passer to a team's success.

 

But now looking closer at these 11 picks:

 

1964, 6th overall - Carl Eller - a great pick and a Hall of Famer who unfortunately chose the NFL's Vikings over the AFL's Bills.

1970, 5th overall - Al Cowlings - oh boy.

1972, 1st overall - Walt Patulski - yikes.

1975, 19th overall - Tom Ruud - oops.

1977, 12th overall - Phil Dokes - d'oh.

1979, 1st overall - Tom Cousineau - terrible.

1985, 1st overall - Bruce Smith - finally!

1987, 8th overall - Shane Conlan - another solid pick!

2000, 26th overall - Erik Flowers - thanks a lot, Mr. Butler.

2006, 26th overall - John McCargo - thanks a lot, Mr. Levy.

2009, 11th overall - Aaron Maybin - thanks a lot, Dick.

 

Is it just me or are there a high number of epic draft busts in the above list? I'm not talking about sub-Pro Bowl play not commensurate with their draft spots; I'm talking about guys who could barely get on the field and stay in this league for more than a few years.

 

Two things stand out here:

 

1. The Bills could not scout a DL or LB worth a !@#$ throughout the 1970's.

2. From 1988-2010 (23 frigging years), the Bills only chose 1 DE, 1 DT, and 1 Maybin...all spectacularly legendary busts. Guess how many 1st round DB's the Bills took during that same 23-year period? EIGHT. Yep. EIGHT.

 

Just something to think about for this April's draft. Fairley, Bowers, Quinn, Dareus, Miller...do you think that Nix and Co. will pick one of them? And will they pick the right one?

 

P.S. For those interested, our other 43 first round picks went to the following positions: 3 QB, 10 RB, 6 WR, 3 TE, 10 OL, 11 DB.

 

First off, great post! Thanks for the research!

 

As to your questions, from the pre-draft comments, it sounds like the pick's either a DE or QB. (As long as Ralph keeps mentioning getting a QB every time he speaks, that has to be considered a frontrunner.) As much as people like to throw around the word smokescreen, Nix & Gailey's comments last year made it fairly clear that they were targeting Spiller. So far this year, there's been a lot of talk about needing 1 or 2 DEs. Plus, the Bills frequently do the move of cutting or trading the high-priced vet, then drafting his replacement in the first round. As for whether they'll pick the right one, I doubt it. It's too early to declare anyone a bust, but none of last year's top 3 picks have really shown anything yet, and 2 of those were on the D-line. Neither Troup nor Carrington showed anything last year. D-linemen frequently take a while to develop, so no judgments yet, but also no reason for confidence/faith. Out of last year's draft, only Moats showed something to suggest he's a good pick, and he didn't do that until he was moved to OLB. He was drafted to play ILB.

 

Now, obviously some of those guys were hurt, and some others might turn it around, and that's fine. But I'm just not seeing anything (other than blind faith or extreme optimism) to suggest that Nix is the guy who will reverse the Bills' horrible draft record. Hope I'm wrong, though.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Bruce Smith is probably the best DE in the history of the NFL, so I regard this as a rousing success story.

I was thinking more like woefully inconsistent, unfortunately.