After reading some comments and thinking about what the Bills might do

[The Senator]

The Bills will take Texas A&M OLB Von Miller, the most dominant pass-rusher in this year's draft, at #3 - as Miller's stock soars following up his impressive Senior Bowl week and an outstanding performance at the NFL Scouting Combine (which starts today). It's always fun, but - in reality - ridiculous to try predicting what will happen after that, as it'll be contingent upon what 30 other teams do before we pick again.

 

That said, what I think will happen is Mallett will slip to round 2 - whether Buddy takes him at the #34-spot will hinge on Mallett's interviews and performance at the combine. If Buddy's comfortable, Mallett could be 'warming the pine' for the next 2 seasons as Fitzpatrick's backup - but, again, that depends on what 30 other teams do before we pick again and who else has 'slipped' out of round one as we're on the clock in round 2. If Gabe Carimi is still there at the 34th pick, he'll be our next great LT.

 

If we don't take Mallett and Christian Ponder's still there in round 3, Ponder will be our developmental QB for the next 2-3 years.

 

With two picks in round four, the possibilities are myriad - guys I personally like include FB/ILB/ST Owen Marecic, OL John Moffitt, DE Greg Romeus, OLB Dontay Moch, and DT Sione Fua.

 

In the later rounds Nix will go BPA (I hope), with an eye on positional needs governing his choices - one guy that I do hope we have a shot at in maybe round 6 or 7 is Nebraska kicker Alex Henery, who can also punt and is a decent scrambler on 'trick' plays as well. (Lindell and Moorman are 34 and 35 years old, respectively, and - hate to say - beginning to show it.)

 

April 28-30 can't get here soon enough - also can't wait to hear some news from the combine this week...

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

[K Gun Special]

The Bills will take Texas A&M OLB Von Miller, the most dominant pass-rusher in this year's draft, at #3 - as Miller's stock soars following up his impressive Senior Bowl week and an outstanding performance at the NFL Scouting Combine (which starts today). It's always fun, but - in reality - ridiculous to try predicting what will happen after that, as it'll be contingent upon what 30 other teams do before we pick again.

 

That said, what I think will happen is Mallett will slip to round 2 - whether Buddy takes him at the #34-spot will hinge on Mallett's interviews and performance at the combine. If Buddy's comfortable, Mallett could be 'warming the pine' for the next 2 seasons as Fitzpatrick's backup - but, again, that depends on what 30 other teams do before we pick again and who else has 'slipped' out of round one as we're on the clock in round 2. If Gabe Carimi is still there at the 34th pick, he'll be our next great LT.

 

If we don't take Mallett and Christian Ponder's still there in round 3, Ponder will be our developmental QB for the next 2-3 years.

 

With two picks in round four, the possibilities are myriad - guys I personally like include FB/ILB/ST Owen Marecic, OL John Moffitt, DE Greg Romeus, OLB Dontay Moch, and DT Sione Fua.

 

In the later rounds Nix will go BPA (I hope), with an eye on positional needs governing his choices - one guy that I do hope we have a shot at in maybe round 6 or 7 is Nebraska kicker Alex Henery, who can also punt and is a decent scrambler on 'trick' plays as well. (Lindell and Moorman are 34 and 35 years old, respectively, and - hate to say - beginning to show it.)

 

April 28-30 can't get here soon enough - also can't wait to hear some news from the combine this week...

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

 

 

Yea maybe if Mallet could shake the drug use rumors that seem to follow him around. Word around the campfire is he will have to submit to testing for some teams.

 

And no chance we take Ponder, if the Bills are going QB its gonna be at #3.

[The Senator]

Yea maybe if Mallet could shake the drug use rumors that seem to follow him around. Word around the campfire is he will have to submit to testing for some teams.

 

And no chance we take Ponder, if the Bills are going QB its gonna be at #3.

Don't know if there's any truth to it but some are suggesting that Mallett will be given a hair-follicle test, in addition to the standard urine screening.

 

Interesting that you discount Ponder so strongly - Gailey & Modkins have watched him since H.S., recruited him hard for Georgia Tech, and - supposedly - loved him at the Senior Bowl.

[K Gun Special]

Don't know if there's any truth to it but some are suggesting that Mallett will be given a hair-follicle test, in addition to the standard urine screening.

 

Interesting that you discount Ponder so strongly - Gailey & Modkins have watched him since H.S., recruited him hard for Georgia Tech, and - supposedly - loved him at the Senior Bowl.

 

Who knows about Mallett, but it does little for his draft status on a team's board. Perhaps testing, if there is any, will clear him. It would sad to learn otherwise.

 

Ponder: what you say is just anecdotal evidence. Liking the guy and drafting him are totally different animals so lets not confuse the two.

[Mickey]

I won't even get into the MAJOR character issues concerning this guy. How about the 26-27-60 rule for evaluating NFL QB's? It may not be an exact scientific formula for predicting pro success, but Newton already fails the second requirement by a full season's worth of experience. Teams may be willing to roll the dice on this one particular deficiency, but not if he doesn't at least score in the 20's on the Wonderlic test. No amount of physical skill at the QB position can overcome an inability to mentally handle the speed and complexity of the NFL.

 

 

Ummm...didn't he start at Blinn? And won a championship there too? He has played 2 years, not one. You might not think much of the competition but form an experience standpoint, that year counts iin my book. Cam is no one year wonder. He started two years, for two different teams and won two championships. I am not crazy about us taking him with so many good defensive players on the board which we so badly need. But Cam Newton has major talent and he has produced wins. Lots of them. I wouldn't jump off a bridge if Chan decided Newton was too good to pass up.

[aristocrat]

either we take a qb top five or not at all...no more taking shots in the wind with these guys. if we don't take newton at 3 we need to trade down and get an extra playmaker or two in the top 3 rounds. its much easier to find playmakers at other postions late in the first and 2nd

[San Jose Bills Fan]

So your plan for improving is to keep drafting the same 2 positions in round 2 and 3??? And this gets us ahead now?? After you take a rookie QB who will probably be on the bench for at least a year.

 

And in their 3-4, Dwan Edwards, Torrell Troupe, and Alex Carrington are now on the bench? I'm assuming you're letting Kyle Williams stick around, right?

 

So basically in your construction, 4 of our 4 top personnel moves last season (picks 1,2,3 and top FA signing) resulted in backup players. Awesome.

 

Meanwhile, the team doesn't improve at LB, TE, OL, WR?? Arguably every one of those a position of need greater than DL or QB.

I have to disagree with you Bob, on this post.

 

This discussion distills down to drafting the best player available versus drafting for need.

 

Specifically, drafting more D-linemen high doesn't suddenly make Troup or Carrington reserve players or wasted draft picks (bolded above).

 

Firstly (sorry Jumbulaya) it depends on who you draft and how that player is used.

 

Also, Dwan Edwards is older and may become more and more injury prone.

 

If there's a treasure trove of D-linemen, you'd be foolish not to take one. The market for certain positions fluctuates year to year…this is a great year for D-linemen, and a team has to consider that.

 

Also, Nix has said that he employs the San Diego model where teams are not against "stacking talent" at positions. What this means to me is not so much that they try to stack talent but that they will take the best player available regardless of position.

 

Finally, while O-linemen typically play every snap, D-linemen are typically rotated…it takes more effort chasing as a defender than it does blocking. In that respect, even if Troup and Carrington become the players the Bills project them to be, the Bills still need more talent on the D-line. The best case scenario for a defense is to "attack in waves." I'd love to see the Bills with an endless supply of big nasties, wearing down the opponent.

 

Like Nix said recently about Troup and Carrington:

 

“We’re happy with (Torell) Troup. We’re happy with (Alex) Carrington. We just need a couple of more now.”

 

Don't know if there's any truth to it but some are suggesting that Mallett will be given a hair-follicle test, in addition to the standard urine screening.

 

Interesting that you discount Ponder so strongly - Gailey & Modkins have watched him since H.S., recruited him hard for Georgia Tech, and - supposedly - loved him at the Senior Bowl.

And Ponder was MVP at the Senior Bowl.

 

I've seen two criticisms of Ponder: Firstly (whoops) he has an average arm. No biggie, lots of great QBs have an average arm. Secondly, that he's a bit of an injury risk.

 

On the plus ledger, Ponder is said to be the most experienced pro-style QB in this draft, has a long college track record, is supposed to be VERY ACCURATE with his throws, is a great leader, and is very intelligent. I like Ponder a lot. I'm just not sure if I like him at #34…

 

 

[The Senator]

And Ponder was MVP at the Senior Bowl.

 

I've seen two criticisms of Ponder: Firstly (whoops) he has an average arm. No biggie, lots of great QBs have an average arm. Secondly, that he's a bit of an injury risk.

 

On the plus ledger, Ponder is said to be the most experienced pro-style QB in this draft, has a long college track record, is supposed to be VERY ACCURATE with his throws, is a great leader, and is very intelligent. I like Ponder a lot. I'm just not sure if I like him at #34…

Agree wholeheartedly - but I'd absolutely LOVE the guy at the #68-pick!

.

Edited February 23, 2011 by The Senator

[habes1280]

With Florence being a FA and McGee getting old and McKelvin not proving he's up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills Draft Patrick Peterson #3. He's got the size and strength at the CB position that he could be a very dominate player for the Bills. Oh and everyone will hate me for this. He's a good return guy

 

With respect, we've tried this approach and it hasn't worked. Between Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Terrence McGee, Jabari Greer, et al, we've had good-to-marquee players at CB for nearly the last decade, often with quality depth behind them; yet we haven't managed to build a reliable DEFENSE, let along a reliable franchise. Whatever their impact on other teams, steady-to-Pro Bowl play from CBs hasn't yielded much for our Bills (though for a little while, wicked return and coverage teams were nearly winning games by themselves, so your "return guy" comment, however tongue in cheek, does still carry water).

 

I'll only have minor cardiac arrest if the Bills draft away from the lines in the first round (I've already made the necessary arrangements-- found someone to administer the chest massage, charge the defibrillator paddles, so on-- so don't worry about me. I'll be fine). What I don't want is for them to draft a situational player, or a guy that has to stretch to fit the demands of this particular defense. I'd just like a player who is a natural fit, and has already enjoyed a measure of success, at a position he'll be playing here. And I'd like that position to be one that's on the field in the majority of packages, and capable of making a play on the majority of downs-- in other words, something other than a situational pass rusher who struggles against the run (or in space, or in coverage, or with most pass-rush techniques), or a change of pace scatback who doesn't have a place (or the trust of his coordinator/head coach) in standard sets and packages.

 

It's for these reasons that I'm in favor of Dareus at #3, and it's for these reasons that I wouldn't scoff at J.J. Watt (with or without a trade down). Both are natural 3-4 5-techniques that can move inside in a pinch and DON'T have to gain or lose a pound, or learn a new position, to make an EVERY DOWN contribution straight away. Both have a frame they could still grow into; both have shown game-changing ability; and both have played big in big programs and against premiere competition.

 

That said, I suppose I agree with you. I fully expect the Bills to draft Patrick Peterson. And I expect to cry real tears.

[CosmicBills]

With respect, we've tried this approach and it hasn't worked. Between Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Terrence McGee, Jabari Greer, et al, we've had good-to-marquee players at CB for nearly the last decade, often with quality depth behind them; yet we haven't managed to build a reliable DEFENSE, let along a reliable franchise. Whatever their impact on other teams, steady-to-Pro Bowl play from CBs hasn't yielded much for our Bills (though for a little while, wicked return and coverage teams were nearly winning games by themselves, so your "return guy" comment, however tongue in cheek, does still carry water).

 

I'll only have minor cardiac arrest if the Bills draft away from the lines in the first round (I've already made the necessary arrangements-- found someone to administer the chest massage, charge the defibrillator paddles, so on-- so don't worry about me. I'll be fine). What I don't want is for them to draft a situational player, or a guy that has to stretch to fit the demands of this particular defense. I'd just like a player who is a natural fit, and has already enjoyed a measure of success, at a position he'll be playing here. And I'd like that position to be one that's on the field in the majority of packages, and capable of making a play on the majority of downs-- in other words, something other than a situational pass rusher who struggles against the run (or in space, or in coverage, or with most pass-rush techniques), or a change of pace scatback who doesn't have a place (or the trust of his coordinator/head coach) in standard sets and packages.

 

It's for these reasons that I'm in favor of Dareus at #3, and it's for these reasons that I wouldn't scoff at J.J. Watt (with or without a trade down). Both are natural 3-4 5-techniques that can move inside in a pinch and DON'T have to gain or lose a pound, or learn a new position, to make an EVERY DOWN contribution straight away. Both have a frame they could still grow into; both have shown game-changing ability; and both have played big in big programs and against premiere competition.

 

That said, I suppose I agree with you. I fully expect the Bills to draft Patrick Peterson. And I expect to cry real tears.

:lol:

[The Senator]

I'll only have minor cardiac arrest if the Bills draft away from the lines in the first round (I've already made the necessary arrangements-- found someone to administer the chest massage, charge the defibrillator paddles, so on-- so don't worry about me. I'll be fine).

 

Just had an EKG and treadmill stress-test myself, this past Tuesday, and am hoping the doc says I'm ready for what the Bills will do in this draft!

 

(I'm at serious risk of acute myocardial infarction if they draft Kim Newton or Gabe Blabbert at #3 - will be at ease if it's Von Miller.)

[Donald Duck]

 

Just had an EKG and treadmill stress-test myself, this past Tuesday, and am hoping the doc says I'm ready for what the Bills will do in this draft!

 

(I'm at serious risk of acute myocardial infarction if they draft Kim Newton or Gabe Blabbert at #3 - will be at ease if it's Von Miller.)

 

 

Newtons probably going to the Panthers Senator so relax my friend.

[dave mcbride]

With respect, we've tried this approach and it hasn't worked. Between Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Terrence McGee, Jabari Greer, et al, we've had good-to-marquee players at CB for nearly the last decade, often with quality depth behind them; yet we haven't managed to build a reliable DEFENSE, let along a reliable franchise. Whatever their impact on other teams, steady-to-Pro Bowl play from CBs hasn't yielded much for our Bills (though for a little while, wicked return and coverage teams were nearly winning games by themselves, so your "return guy" comment, however tongue in cheek, does still carry water).

 

I'll only have minor cardiac arrest if the Bills draft away from the lines in the first round (I've already made the necessary arrangements-- found someone to administer the chest massage, charge the defibrillator paddles, so on-- so don't worry about me. I'll be fine). What I don't want is for them to draft a situational player, or a guy that has to stretch to fit the demands of this particular defense. I'd just like a player who is a natural fit, and has already enjoyed a measure of success, at a position he'll be playing here. And I'd like that position to be one that's on the field in the majority of packages, and capable of making a play on the majority of downs-- in other words, something other than a situational pass rusher who struggles against the run (or in space, or in coverage, or with most pass-rush techniques), or a change of pace scatback who doesn't have a place (or the trust of his coordinator/head coach) in standard sets and packages.

 

It's for these reasons that I'm in favor of Dareus at #3, and it's for these reasons that I wouldn't scoff at J.J. Watt (with or without a trade down). Both are natural 3-4 5-techniques that can move inside in a pinch and DON'T have to gain or lose a pound, or learn a new position, to make an EVERY DOWN contribution straight away. Both have a frame they could still grow into; both have shown game-changing ability; and both have played big in big programs and against premiere competition.

 

That said, I suppose I agree with you. I fully expect the Bills to draft Patrick Peterson. And I expect to cry real tears.

This is actually false. The Bills had the #2 defense in both 2003 and 2004, and in 2004, the defense was so good statistically in a variety of categories that stats geeks (i.e., Football Outsiders) rates as one of the best in memory.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2004

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3747949

 

They finished eighth last year as well: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2009

 

They were 28th in 2010.

Edited February 24, 2011 by dave mcbride

[habes1280]

This is actually false. The Bills had the #2 defense in both 2003 and 2004, and in 2004, the defense was so good statistically in a variety of categories that stats geeks (i.e., Football Outsiders) rates as one of the best in memory.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2004

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3747949

 

They finished eighth last year as well: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2009

 

They were 28th in 2010.

 

 

I take your point, and appreciate the research, but I never said the Bills defense was never effective. I said they weren't reliable. Not from one game to the next, not from one season to the next. There was seldom a time in recent memory when, if our defense was on the field with two minutes left protecting a five point lead, ANY of us could draw a confident breath (ask The Senator's cardiologist). That's not to say they never succeeded, it's saying that they failed more often than they should have, and too often for our team to win games that they could have. Our defense DID take over a few games, just as the cornerbacks I mentioned made some outstanding plays and had some fantastic seasons, but neither did enough to dominate (or even execute) on a CONSISTENT basis.

 

Statistics tell a different story, I know, but they don't always tell the right story. The 2004 defense that you mention-- which, you are right, was leaps and bounds better than many of the defenses that followed-- still gave up 32 points to a Dolphins offense that was averaging barely 17 per game, and still got dominated at the point of attack by Steelers depth players in a game that cost us a wildcard slot. Reliable defenses don't do that. The 2009 defense overachieved and played with heart, but gave up 27 point or more FIVE times (and 38 against the Dolphins, 31 against the Falcons and Texans, and 41 in a blowout loss against the Titans-- where, admittedly, 14 points came from pick-sixes). More often than not, the Bills have beaten the odds in reverse-- and instead of making plays when the chips were stacked against them, flubbed games when the odds were in their favor (ask Pitt in 2004, Dallas in 2007, or New England in 2009). Not all of this is on the defense and I'm not saying the defense is the biggest part of the problem; I'm saying they haven't been part of the solution, either. I'd just like whomever the Bills draft at #3 to be an important part of the solution, and someone that can contribute on more than just passing downs, that's all.