Astrobot Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 (edited) Here is what I'm proposing for next week's Bills' Positional Needs at DraftTek: Current Needs are Here. On Offense, I'd like to move QB to P2 and TE to P3, RT to P3. On Defense, I'd like to move CB to P4. (Explanation of DraftTek computer draft sims: For each pick, the DRAFTSIM model refers to the Team Needs Matrix to assess the best player available to the team. In the months leading up to the draft, these codes are tweaked quite a bit in response to goings-on in the world of the NFL. Drafttek is able to produce a new simulation on a daily basis if events warrant, responding to real world trades or other news.) Explanation of Priority Codes P1, P2, P3, etc.: Team Needs Code Descriptions 1 (or P1) - This is the absolutely highest priority team positional need. If a player position (PP) is assigned a P1 code, the program will reach to fill the need. For example if a team is selecting 15th, the program will search to the 25th player (as an example) to fill the P1 need. A team can have only one P1 need. However it is acceptable to have no P1 needs. 2 (or P2) - PP's designated with P2 indicate that the that the team is in great need of starting calliber talent and will reach to fill the need. The reach isn't quite as great as P1. There can be multiple P2's identified per team. Regarding Reach, the reach limit changes as the selection number increases. 3 (P3) - PP's (Player Positions) designated with P3 indicate that the team is in need of starting caliber talent, but will not reach for it. Some teams use a "best available player" draft discipline, this fits the P3 code well. Two notes on P3: a) even though we say "will not reach", there is a little bit of reach. Selection #25 could reach to the #30 rated player to fill a P3 need. b) If the program cycles through all the P1, P2, P3 and P4 needs without finding a player, the program will add more reach to the P3 PP's and seach again for a P3 player. 4 (P4) - PP's tagged with a P4 code are depth needs. P4 is purely a value oriented selection, so there is no reach. 5 (P5) - The P5 code is used to identify positional needs that the team absolutely wants to fill (within reason), but does not want to invest a high draft pick. P5 PP's start the simulation as an equivalent to P4 (depth needs), but in the 4th round all P5 PP's are promoted to P3. Thus the chances of the PP's getting a player fill increase dramatically in the 4th round. 6(P6) - The P6 code is used to identify late round fill needs - like a kicker, fullback, or backup QB. P6's have very low priority in rounds 1-5 and will only fill a player under the most unlucky of circumstances for the team. In the 5th round, a conversion takes place and all P6 PP's convert to P4. P7 and P8 do not exist. They did once but were replicative and never seemed to fill. 9 (P9) - PP's tagged with a P9 code are positions where the team is absolutely set. But there are occurences where the program simply cannot find any player to fill the P1-P6 designations within a reasonable reach. In these cases the P9's will be sifted through and the best available selected. Edited February 12, 2011 by Astrobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 IMO...QB is more like a P4 of P5 need for this team at this point in the rebuilding process. This draft seems to be very thin with QB talent. In other words...either you shoot for the moon and take a QB (if you love him) with #3, or forget about it all together. Perhaps bring in a guy like Alex Smith to back up Fitz in the interim. I would put TE, ILB, OT, and probably even CB ahead of QB if I were ranking positional needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverOutNick Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Here is what I'm proposing for next week's Bills' Positional Needs at DraftTek: Current Needs are Here. On Offense, I'd like to move QB to P2 and TE to P3, RT to P3. On Defense, I'd like to move CB to P4. I agree with most of your moves except I'd make QB a P3 and RT a P2 or leave it P3...Our first overall pick needs to be BPA hopefully AJ Green, Fairley, or Dareus. Then hopefully we get ILB and Dline help also a Tackle in the 2nd or 3rd. Fitzpatrick is a fine stopgap QB and I don't think we should reach for one. If Newton or Mallett fell to us in the 2nd or Dalton or Ponder fell to us in the 4th then sure we should pull the trigger. Our first pick like I've said before needs to be a "Sure Thing" or as close to one as we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizard Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Call it whatever you want as far as priority, but I would be happy with the following draft. Rounds 1-7 DL LB OL Sure, I'd like a top flight QB, TE, another WR, more depth at CB, etc... but it is all about having a lot of talent and a lot of depth on both sides of the line. The only player in my opinion worth drafting that isn't on a line or near it is AJ Green. If the Bills are sold on him, then take him. Otherwise, I would be fine hearing nothing by DL, LB's, and OL taken to create a stronger running game, passing game, and to actually look like the Bills have some "interest in stopping the run." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Interesting, a team this bad has no P1 needs, and only a few P2's? I would say a DT or Linebacker are D1, and RT is a D2, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 I agree with most of your moves except I'd make QB a P3 and RT a P2 or leave it P3...Our first overall pick needs to be BPA hopefully AJ Green, Fairley, or Dareus. Then hopefully we get ILB and Dline help also a Tackle in the 2nd or 3rd. Fitzpatrick is a fine stopgap QB and I don't think we should reach for one. If Newton or Mallett fell to us in the 2nd or Dalton or Ponder fell to us in the 4th then sure we should pull the trigger. Our first pick like I've said before needs to be a "Sure Thing" or as close to one as we can get. The problem with getting ILB help in the 2nd is that there is nobody there. It's too early to take Kelvin Sheppard, and Martez Wilson, IMHO, will go to one of the last 7 in Round 1. Our LB coach let Sheppard make all the calls on the field in the Senior Bowl, so I think that's our 3rd Rounder. So I think Round 2 is the O-Line or TE, or possibly our backup QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Rob Johnson Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 The problem with getting ILB help in the 2nd is that there is nobody there. It's too early to take Kelvin Sheppard, and Martez Wilson, IMHO, will go to one of the last 7 in Round 1. Our LB coach let Sheppard make all the calls on the field in the Senior Bowl, so I think that's our 3rd Rounder. So I think Round 2 is the O-Line or TE, or possibly our backup QB. I'd like Rudolph to fall to the 2nd. Sheppard in the 3rd would be nice also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Interesting, a team this bad has no P1 needs, and only a few P2's? I would say a DT or Linebacker are D1, and RT is a D2, at least. Denver's highest need is ranked P3. Seems strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I'd like Rudolph to fall to the 2nd. Sheppard in the 3rd would be nice also. It'd be really nice if Rudolph fell to the 2nd (doubt it though), but do you think Colin McCarthy might slide to our pick in the 4th? If this were the case, I would prefer taking the best OT available in round 3 and then going with McCarthy in round 4. I'd like to see it play out like this... 1. Marcell Dareus DE Alabama 2. Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame 3. DeMarcus Love OT/OG Arkansas 4a. Colin McCarthy ILB Miami 4b. Rashad Carmichael CB Virginia Tech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverOutNick Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 It'd be really nice if Rudolph fell to the 2nd (doubt it though), but do you think Colin McCarthy might slide to our pick in the 4th? If this were the case, I would prefer taking the best OT available in round 3 and then going with McCarthy in round 4. I'd like to see it play out like this... 1. Marcell Dareus DE Alabama 2. Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame 3. DeMarcus Love OT/OG Arkansas 4a. Colin McCarthy ILB Miami 4b. Rashad Carmichael CB Virginia Tech I'd be ok with this draft! Don't really think we need a CB at the bottom of 4 and would rather double up on LBers but this would be a good draft. My preference would be: 1. Nick Fairley DE Auburn 2. Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin 3. Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU 4a. Luke Stocker TE Tenn 4b. Christian Ponder/Andy Dalton QT My realistic Mock would be: 1. AJ Green WR Georgia 2. Christian Ballard DE Iowa 3. Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU 4a. Cliff Matthews OLB SC 4b. Marcus Gilbert OT FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Here is what I'm proposing for next week's Bills' Positional Needs at DraftTek: Current Needs are Here. On Offense, I'd like to move QB to P2 and TE to P3, RT to P3. On Defense, I'd like to move CB to P4. Wow, I looked at the current needs and I see the needs as way different than you do. To me TE and RT are something like P2/P3, QB is way lower, like P4, center is a much lower need than RT or LT Likewise I don't see CB as the same degree of need as LB, and I see DE as a bigger need than DT But that's just me Be interested to know your thinking on the needs changes above and the current needs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Interesting, a team this bad has no P1 needs, and only a few P2's? I would say a DT or Linebacker are D1, and RT is a D2, at least. You can only have one P1 on positional needs. If we could agree on one position, I'd use it; otherwise, with a lot of needs, putting multiple P2's essentially gives you the BPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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