AJ GREEN

[LABills08]

Didn't the Lions take Suh last year? So wouldn't the defensive playmaker argument apply to him as well? So following your line of thinking the defensive playmaker route is a disaster also.

 

Apologies. I thought it was clear that I was referring to the Lions and their notorious years of spending high draft picks on wide receivers during the Matt Millen era. I thought that was obvious.

[truth on hold]

It sounds like you have a case of the Maybin's. Not every rushing OLB has to be huge. Look at Clay Matthews. Listen at 6-3, 250. Von is at 6-3, 240. They have the same build and Matthews is definitely not getting swallowed up. And lets not forget that Maybin and Miller played completely different positions in college.

 

And, again no offense, but first off, there likely isn't "Suh talent" at all in this draft and if there is, it won't last until #3, it will be gone in the first two picks. Fairley's talent does not "dwarf" everyone elses. I honestly don't know where this comes from. Fairley exploded on to the scene this year. Yea, I agree, he's really good and I'd love to have him but lets settle down with the hyperbole. And I'm not sure about the other judgments either. Bowers "screams slacker". Based on what? The fact that he only finally put it together this past year? That is unfortunately how it goes with NFL prospects. Very few of them are consistent throughout college and by the time they put up big numbers they declare for the draft anyways (thus unless they have terrific freshman/sophomore years, they'll generally be coming to the NFL with only one strong college season under their belts). That's why its important to give guys like Von Miller a lot of consideration. Not only has he dominated, but he is the only guy other than AJ Green to have dominated consistently.

The "Suh" of this draft is AJ Green. That is, an as close as possible "can't miss" HoF talent that comes out every 10 years at most.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack

[stony]

how many games has Suh won for detroit?

 

I never mentioned Suh as an alternative. I just was inferring taking skill positions as luxury picks for teams with serious needs along their lines is a dangerous game to play. FWIW, I really like Johnson, and as I mentioned above, I like Green too.

[LABills08]

The "Suh" of this draft is AJ Green. That is, an as close as possible "can't miss" HoF talent that comes out every 10 years at most.

 

I don't know if I buy that. I know of AJ Green's accolades, but why is he so much better than the other guys I listed (Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant)? You're saying Green is more of a stud than Calvin Johnson? Johnson's accolades coming out of college were off the charts if you remember.

 

I'm just blown away that after a year of bitching about CJ Spiller being a luxury pick, Bills fans are already going out of there way to endorse the same type of move. They need to address the defense!!!!! They need to! It's not about "we just need to take the best player available" anymore. Its about building a defense that can compete at the NFL level. AJ Green could very well be the next "Suh". But guess what, that doesn't mean jack **** if our defense can't get the offense back on the field. Just like last year, when we drafted Spiller despite RB being the deepest position on the team, we are going to draft Green despite having a myriad of young receiving talent? Who do you cut?

 

I agree with Nix and Gailey that they can't "miss" on a guy. But, I don't think you take what is arguably the biggest luxury item in a draft (a talented WR and their long learning curve) just bc he is the best player on the board. At some point you need to take into consideration what your franchise needs.

 

And yes, I have read scouting reports like this on Green Link And yes, it does sound like the second coming of Randy Moss. I just don't know how that type of player will help the Bills until they get a QB, a running game and a defense that is at the very least ADEQUATE! Otherwise, Green is on the bench.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Union2008

[Koufax]

What would upset you more the Patrick Peterson pick. Or the A.J. Green pick. These 2 ball players are widely regarded as rare talents. The 2 best ball players available in this years college draft. No one around here really seems to want them (granted ahead of time some people here would not mind). This is just a general feeling, I get from this board. As fans are we incorrect for not wanting the quick fix. Go for the fat guy where you need the absolute most help. Or do we realize the cubbard is really that bare at 1 Bills Drive and know how absoleutly crucial it is to get a special talent. The next Transformer.

 

If Peterson is Revis-like or Green is Calvin Johnson-like I would be happy with either of them. So if either of them is much better than the alternative a positions we crave, then I am happy with them.

 

Remember last year when we had to solve QB and LT. Now we have our QB (for now) and our LT without drafting those positions. We drafted d-line in 2nd and 3rd and still were a wreck. I think the guys we have now will go out there and do a lot better next year, with Troup and Carrington and Moats developing, Kyle becoming a star, and Merriman in the mix. We definitely will add more talent to the front 7 in the early rounds of the draft, and I love Dareus at #3. But if we don't go front 7 in the first round it is not the end of the world, especially if it is to get a better player.

[JohnC]

The rest I agree with, but to me the biggest issue with the McCargo situation was not picking him, but trading up for him (same with Losman). Panicking when your need areas appear to be draining from the draft board is probably the #1 way to lose on draft weekend, unless you're certain the guy can't bust (and are you ever?). I'm not saying he would have panned out, but those extra picks lost hurt more than the lack of production from the individual players drafted.

 

The truth of the matter with McCargo is that the Bills (as usual) simply misjudged his talent level. They rated him higher than most other teams. There is nothing wrong considering a team's need when drafting. If McCargo was a credible talent and was able to play and contribute then moving up can be justified, although I still disagree with the strategy. The same issue applied to Losman. There is nothing wrong giving up picks to move up to acquire a player who one hopes to be their franchise qb. Again, our flawed front office misjudged on an athletic qb with tools who had no football instincts.

 

Last year, the Jets moved up to take Sanchez. In my view, it has worked out for them. He is still developing but it is apparent that he is going to be a good starting qb in this league. The problem with the Bills is not so much what their intentions are but it is in their execution. It all comes down to the caliber of its scouting. Because it is so mediocre it undermines a lot of what this organization is attempting to do.

Edited January 31, 2011 by JohnC

[Koufax]

The rest I agree with, but to me the biggest issue with the McCargo situation was not picking him, but trading up for him (same with Losman). Panicking when your need areas appear to be draining from the draft board is probably the #1 way to lose on draft weekend, unless you're certain the guy can't bust (and are you ever?). I'm not saying he would have panned out, but those extra picks lost hurt more than the lack of production from the individual players drafted.

 

That's not my issue with him. My issue is with him being a useless football player. Taking useless football players in any round sucks, but in round 1 it is worse. Getting a good to great player at that pick (or where we were before the trade up) is what matters. We didn't and our roster is weak because of it. Every team will hit and miss. But the goal of each pick has to be getting a good football player and making your roster better. Do that often enough and good things happen, do that not so often and bad things happen.

[truth on hold]

I don't know if I buy that. I know of AJ Green's accolades, but why is he so much better than the other guys I listed (Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant)? You're saying Green is more of a stud than Calvin Johnson? Johnson's accolades coming out of college were off the charts if you remember.

 

I'm just blown away that after a year of bitching about CJ Spiller being a luxury pick, Bills fans are already going out of there way to endorse the same type of move. They need to address the defense!!!!! They need to! It's not about "we just need to take the best player available" anymore. Its about building a defense that can compete at the NFL level. AJ Green could very well be the next "Suh". But guess what, that doesn't mean jack **** if our defense can't get the offense back on the field. Just like last year, when we drafted Spiller despite RB being the deepest position on the team, we are going to draft Green despite having a myriad of young receiving talent? Who do you cut?

 

I agree with Nix and Gailey that they can't "miss" on a guy. But, I don't think you take what is arguably the biggest luxury item in a draft (a talented WR and their long learning curve) just bc he is the best player on the board. At some point you need to take into consideration what your franchise needs.

 

And yes, I have read scouting reports like this on Green Link And yes, it does sound like the second coming of Randy Moss. I just don't know how that type of player will help the Bills until they get a QB, a running game and a defense that is at the very least ADEQUATE! Otherwise, Green is on the bench.

We're talking about what to do with the #3 pick. Unfortunately a lot of our past failures have been motivated by drafting for need -- Lynch, Whitner, McCargo, McKelvin, Maybin. Had we taken BPA we'd almost certainly have been much better off. I dont see any front 7 defender that justifies such a high pick, so the table would be set for another "need" based failure. imo, a Green only comes out every decade at most. And when you have a chance to take someone of that caliber, just do it. Bills have 7 other picks in this draft and there's free agency. Also, the line will benefit from the maturation of Troupe and Carrington. Personally, I'd leave the line as is this year, and if we're lucky enough to get Green, then Id predominantly look for line backers in the other rounds.

 

His body of work on the field is mind boggling. And he combines that with a very mature and confident off field demeanor. Watch this and tell me this guy's not a stud.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKTm9oFWJNg

Edited January 31, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack

[stony]

We're talking about what to do with the #3 pick. Unfortunately a lot of our past failures have been motivated by drafting for need -- Lynch, Whitner, McCargo, McKelvin, Maybin. Had we taken BPA we'd almost certainly have been much better off. I dont see any front 7 defender that justifies such a high pick, so the table would be set for another "need" based failure. imo, a Green only comes out every decade at most. And when you have a chance to take someone of that caliber, just do it. Bills have 7 other picks in this draft and there's free agency. Also, the line will benefit from the maturation of Troupe and Carrington. Personally, I'd leave the line as is this year, and if we're lucky enough to get Green, then Id predominantly look for line backers in the other rounds.

 

His body of work on the field is mind boggling. And he combines that with a very mature and confident off field demeanor. Watch this and tell me this guy's not a stud.

 

youtube.com/watch?v=FKTm9oFWJNg

 

I'd never of thought about it like that. Good point.

 

But just imagine if they drafted for need and took Ngata 1st, and then traded up to get Whitner. Marv just had it backwards, and Whitner wouldn't want Ed Reed money. Instead we'd be resigning Ngata to a contract, getting Whitner signed reasonably w/o the past 6 months of vitriol, and, AJ Green would make perfect sense.

Edited January 31, 2011 by stony

[Mr. WEO]

We're talking about what to do with the #3 pick. Unfortunately a lot of our past failures have been motivated by drafting for need -- Lynch, Whitner, McCargo, McKelvin, Maybin. Had we taken BPA we'd almost certainly have been much better off. I dont see any front 7 defender that justifies such a high pick, so the table would be set for another "need" based failure. imo, a Green only comes out every decade at most. And when you have a chance to take someone of that caliber, just do it. Bills have 7 other picks in this draft and there's free agency. Also, the line will benefit from the maturation of Troupe and Carrington. Personally, I'd leave the line as is this year, and if we're lucky enough to get Green, then Id predominantly look for line backers in the other rounds.

 

His body of work on the field is mind boggling. And he combines that with a very mature and confident off field demeanor. Watch this and tell me this guy's not a stud.

 

youtube.com/watch?v=FKTm9oFWJNg

We hear that several times a decade, it seems (Dez Bryant, Mike Crabtree, Calvin Johnson--just this past half decade alone).

 

Bad teams shouldn't repeat the 1st round mistakes of other bad teams.

[billnutinphoenix]

I either want Fairley, Green, or Peterson....These guys are the best this draft has to offer!!!

[LABills08]

We're talking about what to do with the #3 pick. Unfortunately a lot of our past failures have been motivated by drafting for need -- Lynch, Whitner, McCargo, McKelvin, Maybin. Had we taken BPA we'd almost certainly have been much better off. I dont see any front 7 defender that justifies such a high pick, so the table would be set for another "need" based failure. imo, a Green only comes out every decade at most. And when you have a chance to take someone of that caliber, just do it. Bills have 7 other picks in this draft and there's free agency. Also, the line will benefit from the maturation of Troupe and Carrington. Personally, I'd leave the line as is this year, and if we're lucky enough to get Green, then Id predominantly look for line backers in the other rounds.

 

His body of work on the field is mind boggling. And he combines that with a very mature and confident off field demeanor. Watch this and tell me this guy's not a stud.

 

youtube.com/watch?v=FKTm9oFWJNg

 

 

It's a solid point and its not like I'll be totally let down if the Bills go back to back years with drafting the best offensive player available. And, he does look incredible. I just strongly disagree that no front 7 defender justifies a top 3 pick. Unless you were stating that with the assumption that Fairley and Bowers will be off the board. And even if that was your point, I still see Miller as legitimate player at #3.

 

And if we are really going for this BPA argument, why wouldn't the Bills draft Peterson? This is something I am completely opposed to, but he is arguably the 3rd best player in the draft.

[truth on hold]

It's a solid point and its not like I'll be totally let down if the Bills go back to back years with drafting the best offensive player available. And, he does look incredible. I just strongly disagree that no front 7 defender justifies a top 3 pick. Unless you were stating that with the assumption that Fairley and Bowers will be off the board. And even if that was your point, I still see Miller as legitimate player at #3.

 

And if we are really going for this BPA argument, why wouldn't the Bills draft Peterson? This is something I am completely opposed to, but he is arguably the 3rd best player in the draft.

I dont think any front 7 defensive player belongs anywhere near top 3. Not Fairley, not Bowers, etc. Peterson I just simply dont feel as strong about as I do Green.

[artmalibu]

If we had a game changer at wr this year we probably would have won 4 more games, the same amount as if we had a game changing front 7 D player. So, the sure thing is the best thing.

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

I either want Fairley, Green, or Peterson....These guys are the best this draft has to offer!!!

I might change the order due to positional need, but those seem to be the top 3. I'd go:

 

1. Peterson

2. Fairley

3. Green

[JohnC]

We hear that several times a decade, it seems (Dez Bryant, Mike Crabtree, Calvin Johnson--just this past half decade alone).

 

Bad teams shouldn't repeat the 1st round mistakes of other bad teams.

 

How are Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson considered mistakes? Bryant was hurt for a good portion of the season. But when he was out there he was an impact player. As for Calvin Johnson he is one of the top three receivers in the league. If that is a fair assessment, then how is drafting him at a high position considered a mistake?

[Orton's Arm]

If we did not give up like 350 yards per game on the ground I would agree perhaps. Right now sounds a lot like the Spiller pick, and Magahee Pick, and the Evans pick, and the Lynch Pick, and the Losmann pick where we went for skill/talent choice over size and need.

I disagree.

 

In 2002, the Bills' offense was great, especially for the first eight games. Part of that was the deep threat Peerless Price represented, and the way his presence helped stretch defenses. Price was traded away after the 2002 season, which is one of the reasons the offense languished in 2003. Going into the 2004 draft, speed receiver was therefore considered a need, which is one of the reasons the Bills took Lee Evans as early as they did. He was considered a bit of a reach, and he hasn't lived up to his draft position. (Though he's still a good player.)

 

Several factors may have played into the Spiller, Lynch, and McGahee picks. 1) Over-valuing the RB position. 2) The thought that it's easier to upgrade the running game with one position (RB) than five (the OL). That kind of quick-fix thinking would certainly be consistent with what we saw from TD and Marv as general managers. 3) Bad player evaluation. Neither McGahee nor Lynch came close to living up to their draft positions, and nothing we saw from Spiller in his rookie year suggests he'll be any different. 4) The thought that RB was a "need" position. Marv had obviously decided fairly early on to part ways with McGahee, which meant he had to use a first round pick on a replacement RB. (Heaven forbid that the Bills have anything less than a first round pick at RB as their opening day starter!) Gailey talked about the need for a "waterbug" player for his offense; and he seems to regard Spiller as a six-legged creature who lives atop ponds. Even McGahee might be seen as sort of a "need" pick, at least if TD had decided Travis Henry's career wouldn't last forever.

 

As for the Losman pick: TD knew that Bledsoe wasn't the long-term answer, and therefore wanted a QB. He'd tried, unsuccessfully, to trade up for Roethlisberger. Once that failed, he convinced himself that Losman's physical tools gave him plenty of "upside," and that he'd grow into the mental aspects of the position.

 

Several common themes emerge from those picks. 1) Reaching for need or perceived need. 2) Bad player evaluations. 3) Wishful thinking. 4) Over-valuing the RB position. 5) Short-sightedness.

 

None of those factors would seem to apply to AJ Green. Let's say (for the sake of argument) that he's the next Larry Fitzgerald. If we take him and keep him here his whole career, then ten years from now no one will point to that draft pick as a bad decision. (Any more than Cards fans point to the Fitzgerald pick as a bad move.) One could argue that if the Bills take Green, they might pass up some other, even better player at a more important position (such as RDE). If that's true, drafting Green would still be a solid use of the pick. Just not an optimal use. If you want to argue against the Green pick, argue against it on that basis. Or, if you feel he won't become a Pro Bowl level WR, then that's a perfectly good reason to argue against the pick! But I don't think that the Green pick has very much at all in common with the McGahee, Lynch, Spiller, or Losman picks.

[Orton's Arm]

The best available player analysis needs to account for whether you can get a comparable player in a later round. Assume AJ Green is the best WR and will get you 1500 yards and 10 TD's every year, if I can get a WR in Round 4 who can get me 900 yards and 6 TD's, then do you still take Green?

The impact a player like Green can have goes beyond just yards and TDs. If Green turns into an elite WR, defenses will either need to cover him with an elite CB, or they'll need to double-cover him. If you force them to double-cover, you take away options the defense would otherwise have had. That's one less defensive player who can be sent in on a blitz, or who can be sent to roam about the field, or who can be made available near the line of scrimmage to stop the run. An elite WR is supposed to force double coverage and still produce Pro Bowl numbers anyway!

 

I'm not saying the Bills should or shouldn't take Green. But it's important not to understate the advantages a player like that can bring!

[artmalibu]

Another factor to consider is who can they get as a free agent. I would like to see some of the D needs taken care of by proven players that can step in and produce from day one. As Nix said they wont be able to fix all the problems in one draft.

[footballmMcfootball]

Do we have any elite talent at any position? Kyle Williams maybe but at pick 3 you need to pick someone who is an elite talent. Green, Fairley, Bowers, and Peterson qualify. I'd take any. We're 4-12 no pick is a luxury pick you need the best player available regardless of position. Clearly we can upgrade at all positions on this team.