The quarterback of the future

[Just in Atlanta]

We have no idea how Luck, or anyone else will perform in the NFL. Many of the NFL's top QBs were nobodies. Brady for one. And many superstars did nothing when they came to the big leagues. I remember thinking Ryan Leaf was going to be amazing...Where the hell is he today?

 

I do believe Fitz has the tools to be a top QB in this league. He's not the reason why we're 4-11. I can only count two bad games he's played all year. I'm not saying we don't draft a QB, but our first need is a run stuffer. Let's not make the same mistake as earlier this year when we drafted a superstar in the first round and ignored our most glaring problems.

[DrDawkinstein]

We have no idea how Luck, or anyone else will perform in the NFL. Many of the NFL's top QBs were nobodies. Brady for one. And many superstars did nothing when they came to the big leagues. I remember thinking Ryan Leaf was going to be amazing...Where the hell is he today?

 

I do believe Fitz has the tools to be a top QB in this league. He's not the reason why we're 4-11. I can only count two bad games he's played all year. I'm not saying we don't draft a QB, but our first need is a run stuffer. Let's not make the same mistake as earlier this year when we drafted a superstar in the first round and ignored our most glaring problems.

 

I agree that defense is a bigger need, but what is the point in bringing in another lower tier QB?

 

There are plenty of defensive front 7 players that can be had in round 2-5 that can become good Pro players. I dont think the same can be said for the QBs. It's normally a case of "Get one right away, or dont bother at all"

 

Again, I understand the importance of drafting some D players, but I think that if we DONT draft a QB in the first round, we shouldnt bother wasting a pick on one later either.

 

Either get the QB right away, or dont even bother. I'm happy going either way.

[I hate the Bills !]

There seems to be lots of Defensive talent in this years draft and we need lots of it.

 

That being said if we pick 2nd and Carolina is Stupid enough to not draft Luck we absolutely grab him, no doubt about it. He would be a can't miss stud in the NFL and he can learn from Fitz.

 

If Carolina takes Luck then we go Defense end, DT or try to move down 1 spot or two and stock an extra pick.

[bkc]

There seems to be lots of Defensive talent in this years draft and we need lots of it.

 

That being said if we pick 2nd and Carolina is Stupid enough to not draft Luck we absolutely grab him, no doubt about it. He would be a can't miss stud in the NFL and he can learn from Fitz.

 

If Carolina takes Luck then we go Defense end, DT or try to move down 1 spot or two and stock an extra pick.

 

 

agreed never pass on a quater like luck, that said if Carolina did pass they would certainly trade the pick for a boat load of draft picks

[San-O]

We have no idea how Luck, or anyone else will perform in the NFL. Many of the NFL's top QBs were nobodies. Brady for one. And many superstars did nothing when they came to the big leagues. I remember thinking Ryan Leaf was going to be amazing...Where the hell is he today?

 

I do believe Fitz has the tools to be a top QB in this league. He's not the reason why we're 4-11. I can only count two bad games he's played all year. I'm not saying we don't draft a QB, but our first need is a run stuffer. Let's not make the same mistake as earlier this year when we drafted a superstar in the first round and ignored our most glaring problems.

 

 

You will be proven wrong.

 

He is very inaccurate, 57 % completion rate.

[DrDawkinstein]

You will be proven wrong.

 

He is very inaccurate, 57 % completion rate.

 

Does that stat include how many times he hit a WR right in the hands and they dropped it (Evans, Johnson, etc)?

 

Or does it include BOTH well thrown Touchdown passes on the opening drive that 1. Johnson couldnt drag his toe on, and 2. Johnson simply jumped 2 seconds too early for?

[K Gun Special]

I agree that defense is a bigger need, but what is the point in bringing in another lower tier QB?

 

There are plenty of defensive front 7 players that can be had in round 2-5 that can become good Pro players. I dont think the same can be said for the QBs. It's normally a case of "Get one right away, or dont bother at all"

 

Again, I understand the importance of drafting some D players, but I think that if we DONT draft a QB in the first round, we shouldnt bother wasting a pick on one later either.

 

Either get the QB right away, or dont even bother. I'm happy going either way.

 

Agreed. QB is the most importany position. Im not sure theres gonna be one available when the bills pick.

 

All of the best franchises in the league take the best player available, they dont reach to fill needs. This year it looks like when the bills pick one the needs will be one of the best available.

 

Maybe its just me but its hard for me to get excited about drafting a LB.

[DrDawkinstein]

Agreed. QB is the most importany position. Im not sure theres gonna be one available when the bills pick.

 

All of the best franchises in the league take the best player available, they dont reach to fill needs. This year it looks like when the bills pick one the needs will be one of the best available.

 

Maybe its just me but its hard for me to get excited about drafting a LB.

 

Not hard to get excited about adding a Ware/Suggs/Bennett type player to this team. At least not for me anyways.

 

Id love to see our D get a bad-ass OLB that can crush QBs and RBs, and make plays.

[K Gun Special]

Not hard to get excited about adding a Ware/Suggs/Bennett type player to this team. At least not for me anyways.

 

Id love to see our D get a bad-ass OLB that can crush QBs and RBs, and make plays.

 

 

Me too of course. Maybe its the maybin factor.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I dont think the same can be said for the QBs. It's normally a case of "Get one right away, or dont bother at all"

 

Either get the QB right away, or dont even bother. I'm happy going either way.

 

Seems evidence supports the opposite. As the OP mentioned Ryan Leaf, I'll add some other names that were top ten or so selections: Akili Smith, David Klingler, Tim Couch, David Carr, Jeff George, JaMarkus Russell, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, (many were upset that he got selected 3rd overall right befoe the Bills picked Mike Williams) Rick Mirer, Cade McNown, Heath Shuler (hey at least he's got elected to congress), Andre Ware, Dan McGwire, (at least he can say he has a famious brother) Todd Marinovich (admittedl not a top five/ten pic)

 

Were the GM's or all the above teams terrible to pick these guys? Mostly any team if they were draftign in the position would have made that same pick. If the Patriots were small smart they would hvae selected Brady earlier rather than take the chance he'd go elsewhere. They were just lucky.

 

Here's some names of lower level picks I found online that have easily out preformed everyone I listed above. One name missing fom this list some may have heard of was sixth round pick Joe Montana

 

Tom Brady (sixth round, 2000)

Kurt Warner (undrafted, 1994)

Tony Romo (undrafted, 2003)

Marc Bulger (sixth round, 2000)

Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round, 1998)

Jake Delhomme (undrafted, 1997)

Matt Cassel (seventh round, 2005)

Derek Anderson (sixth round, 2005)

Shaun Hill (undrafted, 2002)

 

 

I watched the Giants game yesterday and some of Eli's passes looked just as bad as Fitz. Eli is considered a star, though it may be tarnishing fast.

 

Do the Bill's need better play from the QB position, certainly, but so do about 20 to 25 other teams. I'm sure Miami, Oakland,, Tenn, Washington, Carolina, Minn, Seattle, Arizona, SanFran would all swap even up for Fitz in a second.

 

Some other teams; Cleveland, Cinn, Denver, have big question marks. They problably will keep going in the same direction they currently are, but odds are not in the favor of the current guy being the long term answer and being much better than Fitz

 

I'm sure if you went to the mssage boards of the following teams you'd find many posts implying that the biggest problem the team has and what is preventing them from being an elite team is QB play. They'd be some big ones like Giants, Jet's, Washington, & Dallas. I'd also throw Jax in that group.

 

Detroit and St Louis have two young guys, will they make it to the next level?? Already Detroit is questioning if he can stay healthy.

 

That leaves five to ten teams with good stable QB situations.

 

Someone has to win it every year, there aren't enough good QB's to go around, so I'd rather see the Bills improve elsewhere, draft a mid round QB who may be good or may not. If not and good, not much invested. All draft picks are gambles, but the jump from college to NFL for QB's just seems much tougher than other positions.

Edited December 27, 2010 by Ed_Roch

[K Gun Special]

Seems evidence supports the opposite. As the OP mentioned Ryan Leaf, I'll add some other names that were top ten or so selections: Akili Smith, David Klingler, Tim Couch, David Carr, Jeff George, JaMarkus Russell, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, (many were upset that he got selected 3rd overall right befoe the Bills picked Mike Williams) Rick Mirer, Cade McNown, Heath Shuler (hey at least he's got elected to congress), Andre Ware, Dan McGwire, (at least he can say he has a famious brother) Todd Marinovich (admittedl not a top five/ten pic)

 

Were the GM's or all the above teams terrible to pick these guys? Mostly any team if they were draftign in the position would have made that same pick. If the Patriots were small smart they would hvae selected Brady earlier rather than take the chance he'd go elsewhere. They were just lucky.

 

Here's some names of lower level picks I found online that have easily out preformed everyone I listed above. One name missing fom this list some may have heard of was sixth round pick Joe Montana

 

Tom Brady (sixth round, 2000)

Kurt Warner (undrafted, 1994)

Tony Romo (undrafted, 2003)

Marc Bulger (sixth round, 2000)

Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round, 1998)

Jake Delhomme (undrafted, 1997)

Matt Cassel (seventh round, 2005)

Derek Anderson (sixth round, 2005)

Shaun Hill (undrafted, 2002)

 

 

I watched the Giants game yesterday and some of Eli's passes looked just as bad as Fitz. Eli is considered a star, though it may be tarnishing fast.

 

Do the Bill's need better play from the QB position, certainly, but so do about 20 to 25 other teams. I'm sure Miami, Oakland,, Tenn, Washington, Carolina, Minn, Seattle, Arizona, SanFran would all swap even up for Fitz in a second.

 

Some other teams; Cleveland, Cinn, Denver, have big question marks. They problably will keep going in the same direction they currently are, but odds are not in the favor of the current guy being the long term answer and being much better than Fitz

 

I'm sure if you went to the mssage boards of the following teams you'd find many posts implying that the biggest problem the team has and what is preventing them from being an elite team is QB play. They'd be some big ones like Giants, Jet's, Washington, & Dallas. I'd also throw Jax in that group.

 

Detroit and St Louis have two young guys, will they make it to the next level?? Already Detroit is questioning if he can stay healthy.

 

That leaves five to ten teams with good stable QB situations.

 

Someone has to win it every year, there aren't enough good QB's to go around, so I'd rather see the Bills improve elsewhere, draft a mid round QB who may be good or may not. If not and good, not much invested. All draft picks are gambles, but the jump from college to NFL for QB's just seems much tougher than other positions.

 

 

Yes you can cherry pick Brady and Warner.

But look at the list of super bowl QBs http://football.about.com/cs/superbowl/a/sbquarterbacks.htm

 

see the pattern of first round QBs ? why? because thats where the best QBs are found. Yes they can be found elsewhere in the draft, but unlikely.

 

Since 1984 there have been only 2 super bowls that didn't have a first round QB playing. That is why people want a first round QB.

 

That is why teams continue to draft QBs in round 1 despite all the busts that you can name off the top of your head.

[San-O]

Does that stat include how many times he hit a WR right in the hands and they dropped it (Evans, Johnson, etc)?

 

Or does it include BOTH well thrown Touchdown passes on the opening drive that 1. Johnson couldnt drag his toe on, and 2. Johnson simply jumped 2 seconds too early for?

 

 

Yes it does include those as incompletes, just like every other QB in the league.

 

It does not include his 3 completions to the other team yesterday.

[Ramius]

We have no idea how Luck, or anyone else will perform in the NFL. Many of the NFL's top QBs were nobodies. Brady for one. And many superstars did nothing when they came to the big leagues. I remember thinking Ryan Leaf was going to be amazing...Where the hell is he today?

 

 

Yeah. (Peyton Manning) Many (Eli Manning) of (Drew Brees) the (Ben Rapelisberger) league's (Philip Rivers) top (Aaron Rodgers) QBs (Matt Ryan) were (Josh Freeman) lower (Jay Cutler) round (Joe Flacco) picks, (Brett Favre) and (Sam Bradford) most (Matt Stafford) top picks fail.

[It's in My Blood]

Yes you can cherry pick Brady and Warner.

But look at the list of super bowl QBs http://football.about.com/cs/superbowl/a/sbquarterbacks.htm

 

see the pattern of first round QBs ? why? because thats where the best QBs are found. Yes they can be found elsewhere in the draft, but unlikely.

 

Since 1984 there have been only 2 super bowls that didn't have a first round QB playing. That is why people want a first round QB.

 

That is why teams continue to draft QBs in round 1 despite all the busts that you can name off the top of your head.

 

+1

[DrDawkinstein]

Yes it does include those as incompletes, just like every other QB in the league.

 

It does not include his 3 completions to the other team yesterday.

 

So then, completion percentage is NOT a good indicator of Accuracy.

 

Not trying to just pick it apart for Fitz, but even QBs in general. A guy could deliver 20 perfect passes that are all dropped by WRs. Is the QB inaccurate, or do the WRs suck? Can you answer either simply by looking at percentages?

[San-O]

So then, completion percentage is NOT a good indicator of Accuracy.

 

Not trying to just pick it apart for Fitz, but even QBs in general. A guy could deliver 20 perfect passes that are all dropped by WRs. Is the QB inaccurate, or do the WRs suck? Can you answer either simply by looking at percentages?

 

 

So, Fitz has one of the lowest completion %'s in the league because the WR's drop passes?

 

The stats applies the same to everyone. It's an indicator.

 

You want to know what his career completion % is?

[RuntheDamnBall]

Does that stat include how many times he hit a WR right in the hands and they dropped it (Evans, Johnson, etc)?

 

Or does it include BOTH well thrown Touchdown passes on the opening drive that 1. Johnson couldnt drag his toe on, and 2. Johnson simply jumped 2 seconds too early for?

Took the words right out of my mouth.

 

Fitz's accuracy can be a concern, but it's played up more than it should be because his misses can be SO dreadful. The stats amp up our perceptions despite the fact that the stats don't show us everything.

 

Is anyone doing better advanced metrics a la baseball to account for individual QB performance (hitting receivers in stride but dropped, etc)? I think there are way too many variables for this to really be accomplished - far more than in baseball where there's really just one center of primary action at any given moment - but I'd love to see it tried. Still, I can't see it working. There are some times a receiver makes a great play on the ball and that that's the object of the play - to get it where no one else can pull it down. There are other times where the pass is exactly where it should be, and a smart DB anticipates the play. The truth is somewhere in-between "Fitz is inaccurate," and "Fitz can make all the throws."

 

The fact that he has improved this season leads me to believe that with an offseason of reps with the ones and some committed practice and self-study, he can be a serviceable #1. I agree with those who see improving the team around him as the best course of action, unless the FO feels they have the opportunity to get a guy the caliber of Peyton or Brady. RT needs to be stabilized, and until other teams can't run at will on the Bills, I think that will always be their #1 problem.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I looked at the list, don't see where it actually listed their draft round selection, but do recall many of the names were high draft picks.

 

Not sure that list actually supports your argument or mine as there are many of the same names on repeatedly. That's my point, there aren't enough good QB's to go around and the odds of getting one aren't very high. When you look at the lists of busts you'll also see a number of teams had multiple selections, Detroit, Cinncy, San Diego, and Seattle. That's why they were terrible for so many years, they keep taking a shot only to fail repeatedly. Can you fail with any other position player, sure, but it's not as likely to set you back years a a QB does. You almost have to give a QB four or five years to figure out if he gets it or not. Some may get it sorted out a little sooner (see Trent Edwards)

 

I'd also take everything from before the mid 80's and throw it out because it was a different game back then. I recall when I was a kid, almost every team had a decent QB, and if you didn't you could draft one. If it took five years for him to develop, not a problem, you'd just build the team around him. Your other postion players weren't going any where, there was no free agency. Now you need sucess within a couple of years, or the cycle keeps repeating.

 

Why is it so hard for QB's to do well? Here's my take on it. The game has got too fast, players too big, there are too many coaches on a team that spend hours planning how to stop the other team. While it's a team game, whe nthe offesne comes to the line it's all on te QB to figfure out what to do in a split second. The QB doesn't have a chance, the deck is stacked against him. Once is a great while and getting less frequent, the guy comes along who can look across the line and figure things out fast enough, and also has the physical skills to get it done. Fitz has the mental part down, it's the physical part that is slowing him up.

 

You want to improve the level of QB play in the NFL, limit the number of coaches teams can have, limit the hours of practice and meetings, eliminate all off season work other the fitness and strengthening. Don't all any off season studying of play books, require all players to turn them in after the last game and they don't get them back until June 1st. Will that improve the overall game? Not sure, but would give the QB a fighting chance.

 

So I'm all for drafting the QB 1st round if you can promise me he'll be the next great QB. Unfortunately odds are in his favor of joining the list of busts.

 

 

Yes you can cherry pick Brady and Warner.

But look at the list of super bowl QBs http://football.abou...uarterbacks.htm

 

see the pattern of first round QBs ? why? because thats where the best QBs are found. Yes they can be found elsewhere in the draft, but unlikely.

 

Since 1984 there have been only 2 super bowls that didn't have a first round QB playing. That is why people want a first round QB.

 

That is why teams continue to draft QBs in round 1 despite all the busts that you can name off the top of your head.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Yeah. (Peyton Manning) Many (Eli Manning) of (Drew Brees) the (Ben Rapelisberger) league's (Philip Rivers) top (Aaron Rodgers) QBs (Matt Ryan) were (Josh Freeman) lower (Jay Cutler) round (Joe Flacco) picks, (Brett Favre) and (Sam Bradford) most (Matt Stafford) top picks fail.

You're (Klingler) right (Couch), top (Akili Smith) picks (Druckenmiller) do (Leaf) succeed (David Carr) more (JP Losman) often (Alex Smith) than (Joey Harrington) not (Kyle Boller). Just some perspective. Both of us left out a lot of names that prove or disprove the case, too.

 

Basically, I see what you're doing here, but Freeman, Cutler, Stafford and Eli aren't yet elite QBs. They have had elite seasons, but so have players who have taken the less traditional path to starting QB jobs. Also, Rodgers, Freeman, Flacco, Favre, and Cutler weren't top-5 picks, and none of them were thrown into the fire from day one. That usually happens with a top-5 pick, and even with Bradford's success, he hasn't yet led a team to a winning record. I think it's paramount that the Bills identify and groom their next franchise QB, but the truth is that there are many paths to that result. You'd love a can't miss guy - even if you have to pay him - but few exist. Therein lies the challenge. I do hope Nix hits on his next QB, and at the very least he was involved in the scouting that led to the trade for Rivers, so that is promising. They need to draft a QB instead of a gimmick RB to start, though.

 

I'd add Vick to your list, also.

[DrDawkinstein]

So, Fitz has one of the lowest completion %'s in the league because the WR's drop passes?

 

Based on your definition of the stat, YES, the drops are included and therefore directly contribute to the low percentage.

 

The stats applies the same to everyone. It's an indicator.

 

Just because something applies to everyone, doesnt make it a good test.

 

My point is, that stat is effected by many other things besides simply the QB's accuracy. The only true way to judge accuracy is by watching a lot of games. In watching Fitz this year, I've seen him make MANY more good throws, than I've seen him completely miss people. I've seen him thread balls into places that only ACCURATE passers can make. The TD to Nelson last week, and the pass to Jackson between 2 defenders (that Freddie DROPPED) come to mind.

 

Im sure you can list some passes he missed people on too. Fine, Im not saying his accuracy is Top Tier worthy. But it's not nearly as bad as some people say/think. And the stat you keep throwing around is not a good indicator of the point you are trying to make.