MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 People like you are why people like me short stocks... Interesting. I would have NEVER guessed that about you. Thanks for the advice gents. And do what you want with your stocks steve. Just remember that these guys were saying not to touch Sirius back when it was even half the price it is now. But I'm sure the bottom will drop out anyday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 Interesting. I would have NEVER guessed that about you. Thanks for the advice gents. And do what you want with your stocks steve. Just remember that these guys were saying not to touch Sirius back when it was even half the price it is now. But I'm sure the bottom will drop out anyday now. 151134[/snapback] Lots of people made a ton of money off Amazon when they weren't turning a profit. A greater majority lost their ass when it corrected. Continuing to invest in companies that don't have good balance sheets is a recipe for fiscal disaster. Don't invest what you can't afford to lose and keep your portfolio diversified. That way when you lose your ass on whim investments it won't hurt so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted December 7, 2004 Share Posted December 7, 2004 I'm getting even more sick--especially since I'm buying two more for Christmas gifts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Lots of people made a ton of money off Amazon when they weren't turning a profit. A greater majority lost their ass when it corrected. Continuing to invest in companies that don't have good balance sheets is a recipe for fiscal disaster. Don't invest what you can't afford to lose and keep your portfolio diversified. That way when you lose your ass on whim investments it won't hurt so much. 151136[/snapback] Gets back to something I told steve...know precisely what you expect from a stock. Sirius at $3 was a good buy for a short-term trade, but the underlying company is optimistically worth thirty cents a share, which means that buying at $9 as a long term investment is relatively insane. Just like Amazon...at its peak, it was valued at more than Borders and Barnes & Noble combined, with a twentieth the sales. Conservatively, the market was saying a sale at Amazon was twenty-five times more valuable than a sale at Borders, or an "Amazon dollar" was twenty-five times more valuable than a "Borders dollar"...which was luncay, even with a healthy balance sheet. And compared to Sirius, where you're paying $200 for every dollar in revenue (after today's close, it's probably more like $300), Amazon's peak valuation almost seems rational. At this point, to justify its valuation, Sirius would have to drive out of business and replace about a third of the broadcast stations in the country. Yeah...I think that's realistic... So hold on to that puppy forever; I'm sure it'll never go down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevbeau Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Sorry to get off topic, but.... Anyone else who has Sirius notice the music channels don't sound as good as an FM station? They tout their clear signal (which it is), but the music coming out of Sirius sounds flat compared to FM and especially CD's. If it makes a difference I have the older Audiovox reciever that has to use an FM transmitter. Also, I have noticed dead spots on the highways here in Atlanta. Reception goes out every time in particular locations. No bridges or overhead obstructions, the signal just kicks out. Not a big deal, it's only for a second...just wondering what might cause it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mvbillsfan Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Which one would you rather own? A is valued at $8,620,000,000. B is valued at $11,390,000,000. A had an operating income of $68,358,000 last quarter. B lost $167,237,000. B is SIRI. I will let You figure out which company is A Seems pretty obvious which one I would rather own!! A)All numbers in thousands PERIOD ENDING 26-Sep-04 27-Jun-04 28-Mar-04 28-Dec-03 Total Revenue 1,239,459 1,261,837 1,236,433 1,205,593 Cost of Revenue 738,026 783,069 768,840 778,507 Gross Profit 501,433 478,768 467,593 427,086 Operating Expenses Research Development 230,896 224,821 226,090 226,503 Selling Gen & Administrative 202,179 178,993 180,217 162,807 Non Recurring - - 2,514 - (8,039) Others - - - - Total Operating Expenses - - - - Operating Income or Loss 68,358 72,440 61,286 45,815 B) Total Revenue 19,116 13,230 9,291 4,950 Cost of Revenue (20,609) 85,384 22,124 20,764 Gross Profit 39,725 (72,154) (12,833) (15,814) Operating Expenses Research Development 12,457 6,655 5,119 10,763 Selling Gen & Administrative 170,694 30,593 77,868 (444) Non Recurring - - - 74,860 Others 23,811 23,583 23,688 24,124 Total Operating Expenses - - - 109,303 Operating Income or Loss (167,237) (132,985) (119,508) (125,117) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 It's not going to "go down quickly." 150757[/snapback] First bottled water, now pay radio. One a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 The same way I knew to buy the stock way back when. Sirius has better content than XM, and content is what attracts customers, not being bigger or already having more customers, or what analysts with their short-term/sighted opinions say. And with the recent deal with Toyota, and more with GM, Ford, and others surely on the way, the stock will keep going up and up. Then when Stern joins them in 2006, he'll pull more customers and...you get the picture. And by "go down quickly," I'm talking in terms of steve's parameters, i.e. more than $1. 150778[/snapback] I know nothing about XM's content but I can say that I am very happy with Sirius and will be a subscriber for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Lots of people made a ton of money off Amazon when they weren't turning a profit. A greater majority lost their ass when it corrected. Continuing to invest in companies that don't have good balance sheets is a recipe for fiscal disaster. Don't invest what you can't afford to lose and keep your portfolio diversified. That way when you lose your ass on whim investments it won't hurt so much. My portfolio is diversisfied, I consider invested money "lost," i.e. I can afford to lose it (but rather not), and I stopped buying Sirius over a month ago, and my average price per share is $4.48. If anyone has any legitimate reasons as to why the price will drop BELOW that, let me hear them. But as long as the price stays above it, and I think it will, I'll still have made a profit. Could it go below? Possibly, but unlikely. It's not like Sirius is doing nothing to attract new customers, which is the name of the game and will help the balance sheet look good in time. And no I don't expect it to go up everyday, much less go up as much as it has the past week. But to think the bottom will drop-out because the balance sheet doesn't look good isn't a legitimate reason to dump what is a wildly successful stock for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 My portfolio is diversisfied, I consider invested money "lost," i.e. I can afford to lose it (but rather not), and I stopped buying Sirius over a month ago, and my average price per share is $4.48. If anyone has any legitimate reasons as to why the price will drop BELOW that, let me hear them. But as long as the price stays above it, and I think it will, I'll still have made a profit. Could it go below? Possibly, but unlikely. It's not like Sirius is doing nothing to attract new customers, which is the name of the game and will help the balance sheet look good in time. And no I don't expect it to go up everyday, much less go up as much as it has the past week. But to think the bottom will drop-out because the balance sheet doesn't look good isn't a legitimate reason to dump what is a wildly successful stock for me. 151212[/snapback] It's only wildly successful if you sell it at a profit. Holding it makes you paper rich. I had a buddy who did the same thing with another similiar company. He had a chance to get out at around $100 a share. It Rosened at $1.00. Don't fall in love with marginal companies who are riding a wave of publicity and don't have the sheet to match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mvbillsfan Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 My portfolio is diversisfied, I consider invested money "lost," i.e. I can afford to lose it (but rather not), and I stopped buying Sirius over a month ago, and my average price per share is $4.48. If anyone has any legitimate reasons as to why the price will drop BELOW that, let me hear them. But as long as the price stays above it, and I think it will, I'll still have made a profit. Could it go below? Possibly, but unlikely. It's not like Sirius is doing nothing to attract new customers, which is the name of the game and will help the balance sheet look good in time. And no I don't expect it to go up everyday, much less go up as much as it has the past week. But to think the bottom will drop-out because the balance sheet doesn't look good isn't a legitimate reason to dump what is a wildly successful stock for me. 151212[/snapback] You should raise your stop loss based on the 25 35 50 moving day averages. When an extendsed stock breaks the 35 day moving average I would say bye bye!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stussy109 Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 This company has yet to turn a profit, its all hype and speculation. Check out TASR for a growth stock. Taser has zero competition, and a healthy profit margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 It's only wildly successful if you sell it at a profit. Holding it makes you paper rich. I had a buddy who did the same thing with another similiar company. He had a chance to get out at around $100 a share. It Rosened at $1.00. Don't fall in love with marginal companies who are riding a wave of publicity and don't have the sheet to match. I'm looking long-term with Sirius, so the balance sheet as it stands right now doesn't concern me. And Sirius is FAR from a "marginal" company anymore. Content is king in broadcast media, and Sirius (NBA, NFL, Stern, and recently March Madness) blows XM away, and that's why I decided to jump on their bandwagon. Adding a top broadcast exec like Karmazin only solidified their standing as a company with which to be reckoned in satellite radio. Sure XM is bigger and has a prettier balance sheet, but that's because they've been around longer. But again the name of the game is content, and content is what gets subscribers, and when someone is looking to go satellite radio and has a choice between XM with essentially just MLB (music and products are/will be the same among both companies) versus Sirius with the aforementioned content, who do YOU think people are more likely to choose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 This company has yet to turn a profit, its all hype and speculation. Check out TASR for a growth stock. Taser has zero competition, and a healthy profit margin. I'm not touching TASR. The reason? Impending lawsuits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mvbillsfan Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 I'm looking long-term with Sirius, so the balance sheet as it stands right now doesn't concern me. And Sirius is FAR from a "marginal" company anymore. Content is king in broadcast media, and Sirius (NBA, NFL, Stern, and recently March Madness) blows XM away, and that's why I decided to jump on their bandwagon. Adding a top broadcast exec like Karmazin only solidified their standing as a company with which to be reckoned in satellite radio. Sure XM is bigger and has a prettier balance sheet, but that's because they've been around longer. But again the name of the game is content, and content is what gets subscribers, and when someone is looking to go satellite radio and has a choice between XM with essentially just MLB (music and products are/will be the same among both companies) versus Sirius with the aforementioned content, who do YOU think people are more likely to choose? 151233[/snapback] If xmsr is bigger why is SIRI MARKET CAP LARGER?? No way company is worth 11 billion while losing 167 million last quarter. Look at NFLX That whats going to happen to this stock!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 If xmsr is bigger why is SIRI MARKET CAP LARGER?? No way company is worth 11 billion while losing 167 million last quarter. Look at NFLX That whats going to happen to this stock!! NetFlix? You gotta be kidding me! They had a failed business model from the start. Then Walmart and Blockbuster copied them and did them one better by not making people wait for their movies in the mail. I doubt they continue those services for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mvbillsfan Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 NetFlix? You gotta be kidding me! They had a failed business model from the start. Then Walmart and Blockbuster copied them and did them one better by not making people wait for their movies in the mail. I doubt they continue those services for very long. 151266[/snapback] Some reason will bring this crazy valuation down. Time will tell!! Stocks become grossly undervalued and overvalued. This is obviously the latter Look what happen in early 2000--remember names like Comerse One, Verisign, and Ariba. You would think people would learn. NFLX IS A recent example how fast things can change. I made money shorting this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 I'm looking long-term with Sirius, so the balance sheet as it stands right now doesn't concern me.151233[/snapback] How do you if there's even going to be a long term if you don't know whether the company can pay its bills or not? You don't even know how much long-term debt Sirius is carrying, but you're in it "for the long term"? That is all kinds of stupid. You're flying in "BF stupid" territory with that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 This company has yet to turn a profit, its all hype and speculation. Check out TASR for a growth stock. Taser has zero competition, and a healthy profit margin. 151231[/snapback] Taser's got a good future...but it's as overpriced as Sirius, PLUS they're facing a massive capital outlay for vastly increased production space (they've got one factory working three shifts right now, and they're not even close to meeting demand). Taser the company has great long-term prospects; Taser the stock is overpriced as it is, without having factored in the significant cost of future expansion (I heard $800 million quoted somewhere...though that seems awfully high to me). Anyone who's willingly holding on to TASR as a long term play right now is...well, is the reason people like me short stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 I'm not touching TASR. The reason? Impending lawsuits. 151236[/snapback] I love investors like you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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