Nix/Whaley Thinking

[sllib olaffub]

As much as this team could use the first pick in the first round - I just don't think playing that badly would benefit them, even considering the first pick. They really need to play hard, smart, tough football this year. Teams have to look at Buffalo as a team they're going to have to scrap with to beat. Teams should fear coming to Buffalo. It'll take time for that to happen, but I think we end up with more like somewhere between 6-10 wins this year. Of course, 10 is if Edwards regains his pre-injury form (which was considerable, and more than capable of playing playoff caliber football), or if Brohm has a break out year. Then again, we could win 5 or 6 games and still be a tough, young team on the rise.

As long as we have the mentality of playing relentless, never-give-up football, knock 'em in the mouth, this is our house kind of football, then I think we'll all be happy with things. Gailey and Nix have to change the old attitude of losing is excusable.

It is not.

[Kelly the Dog]

Here is where I am a little confused.

 

 

Sum it up they neglected need in the first round and picked the BPA and then in the 2nd round they picked a player by need over the BPA.

 

Did same thing with Easley in the 4th and Wang in the 5th...Picked for need instead of BPA.

 

Am I missing something...To this day, I still don't understand the logic/philosophy behind this years draft? Good thing is I don't have too.

Every single pick, in every single round, by every single team, in every single draft, is a battle between BPA available and Best Player at Need Position available. It's not hard to understand.

 

Every team has their board of best player available and cross names off as soon as they are chosen. When their turn comes they look at that BPA and say to themselves, this is the best guy. Is HE going to help our team the most or is the guy just below him who happens to play a need position going to help us more. Is he A LOT better in our minds than the best player available at a need position, CLEARLY better, just a LITTLE better or simply MARGINALLY better.

 

If he is a lot better, they'll usually take him. If he is somewhere between clearly better and only a little better they may lean toward the best position of need player. If he is only marginally better they may have an easy decision to go with the player in need position.

 

If the second or third or fourth best player available is also not a critical need position, but more of a need position than the guy just above him, they go through that same exercise. If the best player at the most important need position is 13-15 notches below, but still not that far behind in total evaluation, they may go need over BPA.

 

It's a pretty simple strategy and virtually every team uses the same theory, every pick, every round, every draft. Some teams may lean toward the BPA a little heavier and others toward the need position a little heavier. But it's still the same process.

 

So in the Bills case, in round one, they knew Spiller was the BPA. Far and above anyone else, especially at the need positions of QB and LT and NT, etc.

 

In round two, they probably had more than one guy rated ahead of Troup. Probably numerous. But they said to themselves is that guy going to help us more than the top guy at the real need position of NT (which IMO was the biggest need in the draft, more than LT and QB). And so they chose Troup.

 

In the third round, the same thing likely happened. They probably had a few players rated ahead of Carrington, but they werent SO much better or higher rated that they thought the guy would help us more than Carrington. So it was an easy choice.

 

And so on, and so on.

[genericmattbillsfan]

John clayton loved the spiller pick because the bills need playmakers and he's the best one out of the draft. The line is going to luck better with him bursting through. Has anyone seen Sean Salsbury lately? Remember the feuds they used to have?

[BillsPhan]

John clayton loved the spiller pick because the bills need playmakers and he's the best one out of the draft. The line is going to luck better with him bursting through. Has anyone seen Sean Salsbury lately? Remember the feuds they used to have?

 

What a perfect misspelling. I know you meant to type "look" and I'm not posting this just to call that out. But the Bills line could absolutely use a lot of LUCK this season too! For one thing, wouldn't it be lucky and fantastic, if NONE of the starters that line up against the Dolphins in September are either already replacing injured starters, or end up going out on IR for all 16 games?? Yes I know I'm asking for miracles here. But other NFL teams' offensive lines do manage to play together all 16 games, and those are usually the ones in the playoffs.

 

And good point about Salsbury. Maybe he's on vacation due to the fact that this is the 30 day nothing period in the NFL where most NFL players and coaches and executives take some time off too. I do love watching Salsbury mock the hell out of nerdy Clayton though.

[CarolinaBill]

What a perfect misspelling. I know you meant to type "look" and I'm not posting this just to call that out. But the Bills line could absolutely use a lot of LUCK this season too! For one thing, wouldn't it be lucky and fantastic, if NONE of the starters that line up against the Dolphins in September are either already replacing injured starters, or end up going out on IR for all 16 games?? Yes I know I'm asking for miracles here. But other NFL teams' offensive lines do manage to play together all 16 games, and those are usually the ones in the playoffs.

 

And good point about Salsbury. Maybe he's on vacation due to the fact that this is the 30 day nothing period in the NFL where most NFL players and coaches and executives take some time off too. I do love watching Salsbury mock the hell out of nerdy Clayton though.

Salisbury was fired for sexual harrasment

[Cynical]

jim kelly might have been run out of town had he started off as a Bills player, imo

 

 

Either you are not old enough to have seen Kelly play in his younger years, or you are old enough but the ugliness from the past 10 years has clouded your memory.

 

As DarthIce said, Kelly had "it" from day one.

[mpl6876]

Every single pick, in every single round, by every single team, in every single draft, is a battle between BPA available and Best Player at Need Position available. It's not hard to understand.

 

Every team has their board of best player available and cross names off as soon as they are chosen. When their turn comes they look at that BPA and say to themselves, this is the best guy. Is HE going to help our team the most or is the guy just below him who happens to play a need position going to help us more. Is he A LOT better in our minds than the best player available at a need position, CLEARLY better, just a LITTLE better or simply MARGINALLY better.

 

If he is a lot better, they'll usually take him. If he is somewhere between clearly better and only a little better they may lean toward the best position of need player. If he is only marginally better they may have an easy decision to go with the player in need position.

 

If the second or third or fourth best player available is also not a critical need position, but more of a need position than the guy just above him, they go through that same exercise. If the best player at the most important need position is 13-15 notches below, but still not that far behind in total evaluation, they may go need over BPA.

 

It's a pretty simple strategy and virtually every team uses the same theory, every pick, every round, every draft. Some teams may lean toward the BPA a little heavier and others toward the need position a little heavier. But it's still the same process.

 

So in the Bills case, in round one, they knew Spiller was the BPA. Far and above anyone else, especially at the need positions of QB and LT and NT, etc.

 

In round two, they probably had more than one guy rated ahead of Troup. Probably numerous. But they said to themselves is that guy going to help us more than the top guy at the real need position of NT (which IMO was the biggest need in the draft, more than LT and QB). And so they chose Troup.

 

In the third round, the same thing likely happened. They probably had a few players rated ahead of Carrington, but they werent SO much better or higher rated that they thought the guy would help us more than Carrington. So it was an easy choice.

 

And so on, and so on.

Thanks for a well tought out clearly written post.

[mpl6876]

What a perfect misspelling. I know you meant to type "look" and I'm not posting this just to call that out. But the Bills line could absolutely use a lot of LUCK this season too! For one thing, wouldn't it be lucky and fantastic, if NONE of the starters that line up against the Dolphins in September are either already replacing injured starters, or end up going out on IR for all 16 games?? Yes I know I'm asking for miracles here. But other NFL teams' offensive lines do manage to play together all 16 games, and those are usually the ones in the playoffs.

 

And good point about Salsbury. Maybe he's on vacation due to the fact that this is the 30 day nothing period in the NFL where most NFL players and coaches and executives take some time off too. I do love watching Salsbury mock the hell out of nerdy Clayton though.

 

Go figure "to each its own" because I like nerdy John Clayton.

[sllib olaffub]

When it comes to Buffalo's current philosophy on drafting - Nix basically explained that if the players on the board couldn't come in and potentially start, then they weren't going to draft them merely because they needed a guy at a certain position. I like the reasoning there.

I guess we'll see with Troupe - I like his motor, but there was Cam Thomas, Terrance Cody, Linval Joseph available, so Troupe is going to have to outperform those guys for that pick to make sense. I think the Carrington pick could very well have been best player available, though - he looks like he might be a very solid, talented DE who, I think, will prove to have been worth a much higher pick.

[Thurman#1]

Denver drafted Time Tebow 2010, not likely

Carolina have Matt Moore, drafted Jimmy Claussen, not likely

Cleveland Jake Delhomme, likely but could be better than the Bills

Detroit Matthew Stafford, not likely

Kansas City paid a ton to get Cassel, not likely

Oakland Jason Campbell, likely, but with their

defense should finish higher than the Bills

Tampa Bay Freeman, not likely

St Loius Sam Bradford, not likely

 

Overall, I'd say the Bills will be in position for one of the top QB's, both considered first rounders

 

 

 

Denver, Cleveland, KC, Oakland, and the Bucs would all very likely take a good QB if their QB has a bad year. Plus there's always the possibility (likelihood, actually) of some team(s) that we don't expect stinking up the joint and being pretty lousy, and the QB would probably be a part of that.

 

Not to mention somebody trading up ahead of us.

 

Not to mention that both of the golden boys might have a terrible year like Jevan Snead did.

 

Way too early to talk about this.

[BuffFromBuffalo]

Denver, Cleveland, KC, Oakland, and the Bucs would all very likely take a good QB if their QB has a bad year. Plus there's always the possibility (likelihood, actually) of some team(s) that we don't expect stinking up the joint and being pretty lousy, and the QB would probably be a part of that.

 

Not to mention somebody trading up ahead of us.

 

Not to mention that both of the golden boys might have a terrible year like Jevan Snead did.

 

Way too early to talk about this.

 

You believe it's too early, apparently (Nix/Whaler probably included) do not. Think ahead!!

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/7/13/...-draft-scouting

[Spiderweb]

remember that brian brohm was a great qb junior year and not so hot senior year..... many qbs emerge or disappear in their senior season...that being said, with the exception of ryan, rothlisberger, and a few others, qbs have a developmental period where they are not effective for the first season or two in the nfl. i dont know which free agents are going to be available next season but im sure the guys you mention in the title do.

 

jim kelly might have been run out of town had he started off as a Bills player, imo

 

"Not so hot senior year", yeah, that's the line. Yet, in living in the Lousiville area and watching most of the Cardinals games

Brohm's senior year, I'd have to say he still played well. He was over shadowed by a defense that couldn't stop a team of 80 year olds.

 

Of note (wikipedia source):

 

Brohm had an injury-free season in 2007, completing 308 of 473 passes for 4,024 yards for 30 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, giving him a QB Rating of 152. However, Louisville struggled and finished 6-6, failing to make a bowl game for the first time in 10 years.

[Thurman#1]

You believe it's too early, apparently (Nix/Whaler probably included) do not. Think ahead!!

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/7/13/...-draft-scouting

 

 

 

If Nix and Whaley didn't take a QB this year because they think they can get one next year - that's what you're saying, isn't it? - then we are in for yet another lousy ten years or so. Because only a genuinely stupid personnel guy would count on something in the future that may or may not happen. It's a loser's strategy. If they did that, it would be enough proof for any reasonable fan to understand that they don't have what it takes to be successful as NFL personnel men. Yet another failed administration.

 

Luckily, it's very unlikely that that's why they made the decisions they made. There are many far more reasonable explanations for why we picked who we did. And several of those reasonable explanations (we're rebuilding ... we understand that there's no way to fill all the positions we have large holes at in one draft ... we genuinely think our QBs deserve another year to show what they can do ... ) are exactly what the brain trust are actually saying.

[BravinSeattle]

The Bills sure have taken a lot of greif on NFL Network and ESPN for not addressing thier "needs" in the 2010 draft. I believe they have been doing exactly what they should. The QB's available (beyond Bradford) should not have taken where the Bills picked. I do believe CJ Spiller was the best available. Looking down the road to who might be available at QB in the draft next year, we have Jake Locker and Christian Ponder. Mr Nix and Mr Whaley have to be sharp enoough to know the Bills should be in position to get one of these guys. Here are the bottom ten teams in the NFL listed with their current QB, their chances of drafting a QB #1 and listed by their odds of reaching the Super Bowl this year. Bills fans, I think their is a franchise QB on the horizon.

 

Denver drafted Time Tebow 2010, not likely

Carolina have Matt Moore, drafted Jimmy Claussen, not likely

Cleveland Jake Delhomme, likely but could be better than the Bills

Detroit Matthew Stafford, not likely

Kansas City paid a ton to get Cassel, not likely

Oakland Jason Campbell, likely, but with their

defense should finish higher than the Bills

Tampa Bay Freeman, not likely

St Loius Sam Bradford, not likely

 

Overall, I'd say the Bills will be in position for one of the top QB's, both considered first rounders

I think if we miss out on drafting Jake the Snake that Ryan Mallet of Arkansas would be the next QB off the board.

 

Definitely not Ponder.

[BuffFromBuffalo]

If Nix and Whaley didn't take a QB this year because they think they can get one next year - that's what you're saying, isn't it? - then we are in for yet another lousy ten years or so. Because only a genuinely stupid personnel guy would count on something in the future that may or may not happen. It's a loser's strategy. If they did that, it would be enough proof for any reasonable fan to understand that they don't have what it takes to be successful as NFL personnel men. Yet another failed administration.

 

Luckily, it's very unlikely that that's why they made the decisions they made. There are many far more reasonable explanations for why we picked who we did. And several of those reasonable explanations (we're rebuilding ... we understand that there's no way to fill all the positions we have large holes at in one draft ... we genuinely think our QBs deserve another year to show what they can do ... ) are exactly what the brain trust are actually saying.

I'm saying the Bills know they need a quarterback at some point, but didn't believe the 2010 class had a QB worthy of their first, second or even third round pick. And the 2011 QB's look more promising. In addition, a 2010 win/loss finish in the bottom 3rd of the league is a reasonable guess at their finish.