Buffalo Bills will not draft a QB...

[r00tabaga]

"Need a qb, need to protect the qb & need to get other teams qb" are nice...BUT...I'd rather be good at running the ball, stopping the run and if Rolando McClain is there at #9 I will shoot myself if he is not taken by us! This draft is deep at OT & DT and McClain is a future pro-bowler who is familiar in the 3-4 and would instantly upgrade our D.

[yungmack]

Whomever they pick, the Bills are going to need AT LEAST their top 3 picks to contribute immediately.

 

So, the key reason I don't think they will use the #9 pick on a QB is that he will not contribute this year, whether Clausen or Bradford (who are the only two QBs remotely close to being worth a #9 or better). If you look at teams where rookies have had success, they all share three characteristics: a very good defense, a good to very good offensive line, and a very good running game. When you have those 3 things, you can game plan in such a way that really what your asking your QB to do is NOT lose the game. How many passes per game did Sanchez average last year, especially in the first 8 games? How many were "go routes?" And in critical situations, how often did they ask him to make a high-risk/high-reward throw?

 

The Bills defense is so-so and, if the switch to the 3-4 doesn't go well, could actually be worse than last year (probably not, but it is a possibility). The O-line is below average and not likely to improve sufficiently until later in the season (that's if they find a solid LT, and Woods makes it back to last season's level and no one else gets badly dinged up). And the running game is dicey. Right now, it's basically Freddy.

 

By no stretch of the imagination are the Bills in a situation where they can start a rookie QB. So with the need for their top picks to begin contributing from day one, I think they'll stress the O-line and maybe the D-line.

[JPS]

Denver had a probowl LT, did they make the playoffs? The teams with top QB's made the playoffs, the two best went to the superbowl.

He's redundant as hell, but you have to give him that.

 

My only reply is: the Bills are not going to the SB next year. Probably not even the playoffs. So if you CAN'T get a Manning/Brees type QB, then why not plug some other hole instead of reaching for a need?? Bradford AND Claussen have major questions and I hope we're not blind to those questions if one falls to us or we go up and get one.

[yungmack]

I should have said, in my post a couple above, that trading the #9 (and probably others) for an established QB is not at all out of the question. But I think they're going to go linemen first, with either Brohm or Edwards as the QB.

[thewildrabbit]

I strongly disagree with your premise and actually feel like it's backwards. In general, the QB was and still is the most important ingredient for playoff bound teams...

 

Let's break down the final eight teams...

 

Brees - Saints OL ...great QB, average line-- The Saints have been sniffing around the playoffs since Sean Payton has been the HC and the O line is better then you think

Manning - Colts OL ...great QB, worst run game in the NFL and a QB who's the fastest at getting rid of the ball

Favre - Vikings OL ...great QB, very good OL

Sanchez - Jets OL ...rookie QB (not good yet), very good OL team that won with a strong defense

Warner - Cards OL ...great QB, average line

Romo - Cowboys OL ...good QB, good line, push- About the best O line in the NFL

Rivers - Chargers OL ...very good QB, very good line equals push

Flacco - Ravens OL ...average QB, very good line, team that won with a strong defense

 

The only two teams that support your contention that it is the better offensive line play rather than the QB play which propelled their team to the playoffs were the Jets and Ravens, with both teams getting there because of their defensive play.

 

The NFL is a passing league and having a great QB is by far more important than having a great offensive line. With few exceptions, this has been the superhighway path to success in this league since forever. With that being said, The Bills will not even given the chance to draft Bradford (the only guy who is franchise worthy) since the Rams will probably select him. In the end, the Bills will probably select an OT at #9. But that doesn't change the fact that finding a very good QB is the highest priority of any NFL team wishing to not only make, but have success in the playoffs.

Where are all the guys throwing out their sack stats when you need them?

 

Seriously, how can you say Payton Manning has a bad O line because they are bad running team when Manning was the least sacked QB in the entire league.

 

The Colts were last in the NFL in rushing because they had Payton Manning throwing it all over, he calls his own plays don't forget.

 

The fact that they relied on his arm to win games rather then building a balanced attack might have cost the Colts the super bowl, even though the Colts did run the ball well against the Saints. Then again the Saints were dropping into coverage in the second half.

[thewildrabbit]

Denver had a probowl LT, did they make the playoffs? The teams with top QB's made the playoffs, the two best went to the superbowl.

So did the Bills for two years and it did them no good when the rest of the line are overweight slugs.

[Orton's Arm]

If the goal is to build in 2 or 3 years, according, we should look into the possibility of trading down and acquiring an extra first round pick for 2011, right? Or, getting extra selections in this draft. It would appear that we could have done this last year, whereas the team that picked AFTER us in round 2 did exactly this (after we drafted Byrd).

 

To be honest, I don't like this draft very much unless McClain falls to us, which I don't think will happen.

Trading down is a possibility; and should be very strongly considered if there's no one we like at #9. My preferences for that pick are as follows:

 

1) Get a franchise QB

2) Get a franchise LT

3) Get a franchise RDE

4) Trade down

5) Get a franchise NT

. . .

 

50) Draft a RB or a DB.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Which scenario appeals to you more, a mediocre QB with a top flight Left Tackle, or a top flight QB with a mediocre LT?

[Orton's Arm]

I agree with the 1st two sentences and the focus on the next 2-3 years.

 

It appears that there were a lot of people influenced that draft, like DJ and RW. Remember we thought we were set with Losman at QB, so Cutler is pretty much hindsight 20-20. There's a good article by John Clayton of all people that explains why teams like the Bills choose players like Donte Whitner in the 1st round. I'm not saying this is fact, just that it makes total sense given the some of the choices. Bottom line - a safety as the 8th player chosen overall costs way less than a QB. Yeah, McCargo turned out to be a bad choice, and Youbouty not much better. We did get Kyle Williams though!

 

What bothers me most is that you want to get your franchise QB now and worry about protecting him later. Seems like a lot of "pretty good" QBs would improve this team behind a solid O-line, and beefing up the d-line would help win some games by making stops on 3rd down plays.

 

The bolded part IMO is a ridiculous reason to draft a franchise QB in April. In theory, you might have a case, but there's not enough justification to pull the trigger this year when there's so many holes in other places that you can't just trade for or get a FA to fill. Maybe the biggest reason is that this year's draft is so strong in OL/DL and so-so in QBs.

I read the Clayton article. He points out that teams at the top of the draft tend to take players at key positions (QB, LT, DE) even when there are better players at other positions. He opines that Taylor Mays is one of the three best players in the draft, but is unlikely to be taken in the top 3, because no one wants to pay top dollar for a strong safety. He also points out that some positions--most notably quarterback--have a far more influential impact on the outcomes of games than do others; thereby causing QBs to be taken earlier in the draft. He cites several defensive tackles who had good careers, but whose teams did little, to make that latter point. All of this would tend to underscore Marv's foolishness in reaching for a strong safety at 8th overall.

 

To address your other point--about the order in which one should acquire one's QB and OL--I think the Bills should do the following. 1) Take a franchise QB at 9th overall, if there's one available. 2) Take an OT in the second round. 3) Have that rookie QB be the #3 QB his whole rookie year, just like Carson Palmer was in Cincy. 4) Have that 2nd round OT start at LT, and have Meredith start at RT. 5) Have Brian Brohm be the starting QB for the 2010 season. 6) Take a LT in the first round of the 2011 draft, have him start from day 1, and move the 2nd round OT from 2010 to RT. 7) Have the franchise QB chosen in 2010 become the starter.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

I read the Clayton article. He points out that teams at the top of the draft tend to take players at key positions (QB, LT, DE) even when there are better players at other positions. He opines that Taylor Mays is one of the three best players in the draft, but is unlikely to be taken in the top 3, because no one wants to pay top dollar for a strong safety. He also points out that some positions--most notably quarterback--have a far more influential impact on the outcomes of games than do others; thereby causing QBs to be taken earlier in the draft. He cites several defensive tackles who had good careers, but whose teams did little, to make that latter point. All of this would tend to underscore Marv's foolishness in reaching for a strong safety at 8th overall.

 

To address your other point--about the order in which one should acquire one's QB and OL--I think the Bills should do the following. 1) Take a franchise QB at 9th overall, if there's one available. 2) Take an OT in the second round. 3) Have that rookie QB be the #3 QB his whole rookie year, just like Carson Palmer was in Cincy. 4) Have that 2nd round OT start at LT, and have Meredith start at RT. 5) Have Brian Brohm be the starting QB for the 2010 season. 6) Take a LT in the first round of the 2011 draft, have him start from day 1, and move the 2nd round OT from 2010 to RT. 7) Have the franchise QB chosen in 2010 become the starter.

 

That is a reasonable plan. If there is a QB that they feel could be a "franchise QB" you have to take him. Putting it off a year is just foolish. And, if the Bills improve ( the new regime is better, they will likely improve a bit) they will pick lower in the draft next year, and possibly fall enough to draft a Losman instead of a Rothelisberger again.

[manbeast]

I think like you. I would rather take a LT in the first to help any QB stay on his feet. Hopefully, the Bills feel the same way. The only way, however, I see them trying to grab a QB in the 1st possibly is if they sign some great OTs in FA.

QB is not an option in the 1st or 2nd. I don't want to see anything less than 8-8. We were 6-10 with the

QBs we had so they should be able to win more games behind a better O-line. I don't believe our D is really going to regress. Baring 10-20 players on IR I don't think that is much of a strech. They may take a shot on one in the fourth or maybe even 3rd. But I won't cry if they don't get one as long as they are willing to trade up next year.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

QB is not an option in the 1st or 2nd. I don't want to see anything less than 8-8. We were 6-10 with the

QBs we had so they should be able to win more games behind a better O-line. I don't believe our D is really going to regress. Baring 10-20 players on IR I don't think that is much of a strech. They may take a shot on one in the fourth or maybe even 3rd. But I won't cry if they don't get one as long as they are willing to trade up next year.

 

What are you gonna do with 8-8, and still no QB? We had 9-7 remember? That felt like progress? Gotta get a QB here and developing as soon as possible. A 3rd or 4th round guy MIGHT be a steal, but even if he is, it will likely take a few more years for him to develop (compared to a 1st round talent). That's why he is a 3rd rounder.

 

Playoffs 2015!

[Orton's Arm]

What are you gonna do with 8-8, and still no QB? We had 9-7 remember? That felt like progress. Gotta get a QB here and developing as soon as possible. A 3rd or 4th round guy MIGHT be a steal, but even if he is, it will likely take a few more years for him to develop (compared to a 1st round talent). That's why he is a 3rd rounder.

 

Playoffs 2015!

Good points. I just want to add a little to what you've written. Drew Brees was taken in the 2nd round, Matt Schaub in the 3rd, Tom Brady in the 6th, and Kurt Warner was an UDFA. But other than those four guys, I can't think of any good QBs taken outside the first round. Also, bear in mind that Tom Brady was chosen back in 2000, and Kurt Warner acquired in the late '90s. Those four guys represent about 10+ years' worth of non-first round QB success stories. Conversely, a good draft for QBs can see two or even three success stories in the first round. And it seems like there's usually at least one success story in the first round.

[reddogblitz]

Good points. I just want to add a little to what you've written. Drew Brees was taken in the 2nd round, Matt Schaub in the 3rd, Tom Brady in the 6th, and Kurt Warner was an UDFA. But other than those four guys, I can't think of any good QBs taken outside the first round. Also, bear in mind that Tom Brady was chosen back in 2000, and Kurt Warner acquired in the late '90s. Those four guys represent about 10+ years' worth of non-first round QB success stories. Conversely, a good draft for QBs can see two or even three success stories in the first round. And it seems like there's usually at least one success story in the first round.

Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselback took their respective teams to the SB and weren't first round picks. Also Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer won SB and I don't think they were #1 picks. Also Rich Gannon took his team to SB and wasn't round 1 pick.

 

I do tend to agree though. If you want a "franchise" QB, you're probably going to get him in the first round. Anything later is a crap shoot. 1st round guys a little less so.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselback took their respective teams to the SB and weren't first round picks. Also Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer won SB and I don't think they were #1 picks. Also Rich Gannon took his team to SB and wasn't round 1 pick.

 

I do tend to agree though. If you want a "franchise" QB, you're probably going to get him in the first round. Anything later is a crap shoot. 1st round guys a little less so.

 

Yes, but one of my BEST points is that it takes these guys longer to get good. Delhomme didn't become a starter until his 7th season! Hasselback was weird but it took 5 years for the guy to be good. Rich Gannon was 44 years old(haha) and was nothing for most of his career. It usually takes much longer for the 2nd 3rd round guys to get going. I don't wanna wait around 5 seasons for Dan Lafavarr to be competitive.

[Orton's Arm]

Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselback took their respective teams to the SB and weren't first round picks. Also Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer won SB and I don't think they were #1 picks. Also Rich Gannon took his team to SB and wasn't round 1 pick.

 

I do tend to agree though. If you want a "franchise" QB, you're probably going to get him in the first round. Anything later is a crap shoot. 1st round guys a little less so.

Yeah, I'd forgotten about some of those guys. Though I was thinking more in terms of guys still playing, which rules out Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon. Also Trent Dilfer was initially chosen in the first round (though never quite living up to his first round status). But that leaves Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme as QBs who weren't chosen in the first round, are still in the league, and who have done well. Good memory!

[billsfreak]

He's redundant as hell, but you have to give him that.

 

My only reply is: the Bills are not going to the SB next year. Probably not even the playoffs. So if you CAN'T get a Manning/Brees type QB, then why not plug some other hole instead of reaching for a need?? Bradford AND Claussen have major questions and I hope we're not blind to those questions if one falls to us or we go up and get one.

Peyton Manning had major questions coming out of college. Bill Polian was slammed by many of "experts" for not taking Ryan Leaf instead of Manning, the same type of people who claim Bradford and Claussen have all these "major questions" as you put it. If you look at anything long enough you will find flaws in anything. Every year that we don't draft a franchise quarterback, it is just another year longer until we are once again relevant in the NFL.

[Amstel]

While I would love to find our next franchise QB I am also hoping they draft a LT. Since 97 our O Line has been pretty bad and I, for one, would love to see it solidified. With that being said, I don't think anyone truly knows what Buddy and Chan are planning on doing. I mean there was a link (I believe it was Fox) to a report that the Bills want a QB and may trade up with Detriot. Honestly, with all the deception involved in the draft it could all just be a smoke screen. I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm just hoping for a good solid pick at number 9 that turns out to be a great player for us and contributes right away....

[StamerforPrez]

I know, I know...you all want links...but take this into consideration....

 

All the teams that made the playoffs had average to above average Offensive Lines.

 

Buffalo was way below average due to all the injuries sustained.

 

If your QB is getting hit on a 5 step drop consistently before he hits step 5. How do you expect him to be effective?

 

If he is constantly being harrassed, he will constantly dump it off.

 

Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst lines in the league and he managed to finish 4th in the league in passing (aka not a captain checkdown), and more importantly was in the playoffs.

 

I agree that O-Lines are one of the most important things to an offense, BUT a competent QB can get you a long way. Unfortunately we haven't had one of those in a looong time.

[murra]

Ravens - Top half of league Qb - average line at best - no playoffs

 

They won a playoff game.