Brandon Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I believe in what many call "The First Rule of the Draft," which is simply this, "if your team doesn't have a franchise QB, and you have a chance to draft one, do it." The rub, of course, is who will become franchise QBs. As much as we need an LT, an LB and a DT, if you believe that one of those guys will be a franchise QB, and he's available when you pick, you have to take him. I agree. Its always a risky pick to select a QB in round one, but need I remind everyone of what happened the last time the Bills selected an OT in the first round? No draft pick is guaranteed to succeed in the NFL. If the Bills believe that there is a true franchise QB on the board when they pick, they'd be insane to pass on him. They've still got six more rounds to add to their OL and if they have any good sense, they'll have addressed it in free agency as well. This isn't an all-or-nothing decision and they can certainly afford to take a QB in round one if they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I am not going to copy Touchdown Jesus' post. But i think if anything it proves you take a qb in the top 15 picks of the first. Yes there are guys drafted in the 3-6th rounds. Most are not great qbs. The one exception is Brady. Warner was also a great qb (good now). The Bills should go after Bradford. He is the real deal. The next Matt Ryan type qb. He might be available at 8-10 in the draft due to his injury. Not sure though. At the end of the day the Bills need a true GM, a talent guy, to make this decision. But i am sick of project qbs and guys that fall to the third round. They take atleast 2-3 years to develope. You want to go thru another 3 years of 7-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lt. Dan's Revenge Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I wanted to get an idea of where QBs were generally selected so I listed all current starting QBs in the NFL and where and when they were drafted. I added up all their overall draft positions and divided it by 32 to get me an average draft position (ADP). For the sake of #'s, all 3 undrafted QBs were given an arbitrary value of 250. Here is a list of all current starting QBs in the NFL and where they were drafted: Tom Brady: 6th round/#199 overall Peyton Manning: 1st round/#1 overall Drew Brees: 2nd round/#32 overall Philip Rivers: 1st round/#4 overall Ben Roethlisberger: 1st round/#11 overall Eli Manning: 1st round/#1 overall Aaron Rodgers: 1st round/#24 overall Tony Romo: Undrafted Kurt Warner: Undrafted Carson Palmer: 1st round/#1 overall Donovan McNabb: 1st round/#2 overall Ryan Fitzpatrick: 7th round/#250 overall Jay Cutler: 1st round/#11 overall Brett Favre: 2nd round/#33 overall Matt Schaub: 3rd round/#90 overall Matt Cassel: 7th round/#230 overall Jake Delhomme: Undrafted Chad Henne: 2nd round/#57 overall Mark Sanchez: 1st round/#5 overall Matt Hasselbeck: 6th round/#184 overall Alex Smith: 1st round/#1 overall Mark Bulger: 6th round/#168 overall Brady Quinn: 1st round/#22 overall Josh Freeman: 1st round/#17 overall Matt Stafford: 1st round/#1 overall Jason Campbell: 1st round/#25 overall Bruce Gradkowski: 6th round/#194 overall Matt Ryan: 1st round/#3 overall Joe Flacco: 1st round/#18 overall Vince Young: 1st round/#3 overall David Garrard: 4th round/#108 overall Kyle Orton: 4th round/#106 overall The average draft position of starting QBs in the NFL is 79.7, which is about the 15th pick in the 3rd round. Of these starting QBs, 17 were drafted in the 1st round. Of those that were drafted in the 1st round, their average draft position was 8.8 overall. 3 QBs were taken in the 2nd round 1 QB was taken in the 3rd round 2 QBs were taken in the 4th round None were taken in the 5th round 4 QBs were taken in the 6th round 2 QBs were taken in the 7th round 3 QBs were undrafted I know the Bills have a lot of holes to fill, but if they get a top 10 pick, the numbers show that if they drafted a QB with that pick, they would be better off than waiting til the later rounds to try and find that franchise QB. Thanks for the research, TD Jesus. I think this surely points to the fact that you have a much better chance of drafting a viable starting QB in this league in the 1st round than waiting until later on in the draft. It seems that you have better than a coin flip of a chance of getting a pretty good starter if you do so. And since the last time we drafted one in the 1st was some guy named Losman in 2004....we must be due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Agree on Brohm. All the highly touted QBs in this years draft have some question mark associated with them, be it cold-weather, injury-prone, not NFL-ready, whatever. Think you're right - the Bills had something 'up their sleeve' when they grabbed Brohm, but think the Bills have seen enough of Edwards and will keep him as #3 on the depth chart if they don't release him outright. Let's build both lines and shore up the LB corps first. We can always draft Taylor Potts in round 7 next season. I really want to see what Brohm can do. I agree that the Bills might have something up their sleeve in terms of they expect he will compete for a starting job next year. I don't see Edwards on this team next year. The Bills (under the current leadership) probably wouldn't draft a QB in next year's draft after aquiring Brohm, but who knows what will happen with a new coach/gm/front office. Gotta love your consistency with promoting Texas Tech...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I wanted to get an idea of where QBs were generally selected so I listed all current starting QBs in the NFL and where and when they were drafted. I added up all their overall draft positions and divided it by 32 to get me an average draft position (ADP). For the sake of #'s, all 3 undrafted QBs were given an arbitrary value of 250. Here is a list of all current starting QBs in the NFL and where they were drafted: Tom Brady: 6th round/#199 overall Peyton Manning: 1st round/#1 overall Drew Brees: 2nd round/#32 overall Philip Rivers: 1st round/#4 overall Ben Roethlisberger: 1st round/#11 overall Eli Manning: 1st round/#1 overall Aaron Rodgers: 1st round/#24 overall Tony Romo: Undrafted Kurt Warner: Undrafted Carson Palmer: 1st round/#1 overall Donovan McNabb: 1st round/#2 overall Ryan Fitzpatrick: 7th round/#250 overall Jay Cutler: 1st round/#11 overall Brett Favre: 2nd round/#33 overall Matt Schaub: 3rd round/#90 overall Matt Cassel: 7th round/#230 overall Jake Delhomme: Undrafted Chad Henne: 2nd round/#57 overall Mark Sanchez: 1st round/#5 overall Matt Hasselbeck: 6th round/#184 overall Alex Smith: 1st round/#1 overall Mark Bulger: 6th round/#168 overall Brady Quinn: 1st round/#22 overall Josh Freeman: 1st round/#17 overall Matt Stafford: 1st round/#1 overall Jason Campbell: 1st round/#25 overall Bruce Gradkowski: 6th round/#194 overall Matt Ryan: 1st round/#3 overall Joe Flacco: 1st round/#18 overall Vince Young: 1st round/#3 overall David Garrard: 4th round/#108 overall Kyle Orton: 4th round/#106 overall The average draft position of starting QBs in the NFL is 79.7, which is about the 15th pick in the 3rd round. Of these starting QBs, 17 were drafted in the 1st round. Of those that were drafted in the 1st round, their average draft position was 8.8 overall. 3 QBs were taken in the 2nd round 1 QB was taken in the 3rd round 2 QBs were taken in the 4th round None were taken in the 5th round 4 QBs were taken in the 6th round 2 QBs were taken in the 7th round 3 QBs were undrafted I know the Bills have a lot of holes to fill, but if they get a top 10 pick, the numbers show that if they drafted a QB with that pick, they would be better off than waiting til the later rounds to try and find that franchise QB. Nice work. Lost of stats. What I take away from this is that over 50% of the starters were 1st round picks. You will always find some late round or free agent gems that kick around for a while and then reach stardom 3 - 8 years after college. I would be challenged to find a QB that did it for the team that actually drafted them or gave them their first undrafted free agent contract. If you want a good chance at getting a guy that can help you in his 1st or 2nd year you get your QB in the first round!!! How many of those non first round QBs helped their team in their first or second year? If you want to draft a starting QB, you get them in the first round every time!!! That is a more consistent recipe for success. If not ....get a free agent that somebody else drafted who is ready to step up to the next level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Nice work. Lost of stats. What I take away from this is that over 50% of the starters were 1st round picks. You will always find some late round or free agent gems that kick around for a while and then reach stardom 3 - 8 years after college. If you want a good chance at getting a guy that can help you in his 1st or 2nd year you get your QB in the first round!!! How many of those non first round QBs helped their team in their first or second year. This is of course skewed by 1st rd QBs sometimes being thrust into starting roles before they are ready but teams want to find out quickly if they have what it takes. If you look at just last year alone, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco both lead their teams to the playoffs after being thrust into the starting role their rookie years. And this year, Sanchez, albeit horrible at times, has lead his team to a .500 record and are currently in the playoff hunt. It was widely agreed upon that the Lions are in far worse shape and for Stafford to turn that team around in a year would be nothing short of a miracle. he has, however, set the rookie single game record for most passing yards in a game (422) and passing TDs (5) against the Browns a couple weeks back, and he showed a great level of toughness in doing so. No doubt a lot is going to change between now and the draft. I'm sure you're going to see some risers a la Cutler a few years back and the same can be said with Sanchez just last year. But this year is going to be really interesting with regard to QBs in the draft because there are so many that had a great deal of success at the collegiate level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I don't care where we draft the franchise QB, so long as we get him. Trying to slot the QBs is difficult before the combine and pro days because that's when scouts will really get a look at some of the raw data on these guys. But I think you're right in that there will be 4, maybe 5, QBs getting first round grades depending on how many of the Juniors come out. If the Bills have a high pick, which it looks like they will, then I'm all for taking the best rated overall player, regardless of position, at either OT, QB, LB or DL. If it's not a QB, there's a good chance they can get a good one in Round 2. If the QB class is as deep as some are predicting, then maybe even in Round 3. Either way, my order of importance as far as position would go in exactly that order. QB sadly is but one of 4 positions in dire need of play makers. I think we need to get the best QB in the first round when we pick which I am hoping will be high enough to land Locker, Clausen, Mallett or Pike. I am not interested much in Bradford and I definitely don't want Tebow or McCoy who I think are busts at the NFL level. You need a top QB to win a championship in this league. Yeah, once in a while someone wins with a Trent Dilfer at QB but that is the exception, not the rule. Usually, the champ has a QB like Brady, Manning, Favre, Big Ben or Montana. It would be nice to get players at those other positions and I do recognize the need at those positions but I am willing to wait on those. I don't want to face another season with a QB we know isn't an NFL starter running the show. God no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Nice work. Lost of stats. What I take away from this is that over 50% of the starters were 1st round picks. You will always find some late round or free agent gems that kick around for a while and then reach stardom 3 - 8 years after college. I would be challenged to find a QB that did it for the team that actually drafted them or gave them their first undrafted free agent contract. If you want a good chance at getting a guy that can help you in his 1st or 2nd year you get your QB in the first round!!! How many of those non first round QBs helped their team in their first or second year? If you want to draft a starting QB, you get them in the first round every time!!! That is a more consistent recipe for success. If not ....get a free agent that somebody else drafted who is ready to step up to the next level. I agree. I think these stats are a bit misleading in the degree to which they suggest that good QB's are available later in the draft. I guess I'd like to see the total number of QB's taken and how many from each round had significant careers. I think, intuitively, that they would show just how much of a long shot it is to get a late round gem at QB. For every Romo or Warner, there are dozens and dozens of nobodies that stayed nobodies. Sure, there are lots of first rounders who never became even servicable starters but compared to later rounds, the odds are actually much better the higher you draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I agree. I think these stats are a bit misleading in the degree to which they suggest that good QB's are available later in the draft. I guess I'd like to see the total number of QB's taken and how many from each round had significant careers. I think, intuitively, that they would show just how much of a long shot it is to get a late round gem at QB. For every Romo or Warner, there are dozens and dozens of nobodies that stayed nobodies. Sure, there are lots of first rounders who never became even servicable starters but compared to later rounds, the odds are actually much better the higher you draft. Ya man. People suffer from the "Tom Brady Effect". They look at incredible long shots like Brady, Warner, Romo and think why bother drafting a QB in the first round? They focus on it's possible to get a franchise guy late, not what your actual odds of success are doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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