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Big Turk

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Posts posted by Big Turk

  1. On 11/3/2021 at 9:59 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

    I looked it up before posting. My impression was that Hughes seems to convert a significant number of his sacks into fumbles. Now I just have totals so I can't say which fumbles were strip sacks and which were not.  But look at these numbers below.  When Hughes does get home he makes a differnce.  TJ Watt is just incredible...

     

    Hughes  15 Forced fumbles on 57 sacks 26%

    JJ Watt 26 FF on 102 sacks 22%

    Myles Garrett 10 FF on 53 sacks 19%

    Nick Bosa 3 FF on 16 sacks 19%

    Joey Bosa 8 FF on 51 sacks 16%

    Josh Allen 2 FF on 17.5 sacks 11%

    TJ Watt 20 FF on 58 sacks 35%

     

    Watt got one of those against Allen earlier in the year.

  2. Just now, zow2 said:

    Weather Channel has it at 3 degrees for game time and 0 by 11pm.  

     

    Is the lake frozen over?  Lake Erie is supposed to do it's job and keep the immediate area slightly warmer, while further inland is colder.  That doesn't sound like the case for Sat night.  

     

    Yeah it keeps dropping...now showing 7 for the high and -2 for the low.

  3. 6 minutes ago, Success said:

     

    I totally remember all of that. Good times.  Was that the year that Kelly was hurt & then returned for the AFCCG?  I'm also trying to remember what Berman called Thurman...was it the Thurminator?

     

    I remember thinking Miami was always our 1 real threat in the division - but it seemed like every time there was a crucial game, we bested them.

     

     

    Yup, that was the Greatest Game ever played year where they beat the Oilers at home and then drubbed the Steelers and the Dolphins on the road to reach the SB.

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  4. 16 hours ago, Success said:

     

    Pretty simple:  they're the Dolphins in the '90's.

     

    At that time, the Phins had gotten off a 20 year stretch of basically owning the division (a few more losing seasons mixed in there, but they were the nemesis for all AFCE teams, like the Pats were for years).

     

    Buffalo got their HOF QB and coach, and assumed control.  Miami would always be in the mix, but would generally end up 9-7 or 10-6, and falter in the playoffs.  The glory days were long over. Their fans still thought that the Bills were kind of a temporary condition, and that they would assume their "rightful place" before too long.

     

    But they never did.  That's who the Pats are right now.  More reputation than substance. And BB may be going the way of Shula, who looked much less formidable as he got older.  The game had passed him by. Belichick's last coaching job against the Bills was a head-scratcher.

     

    The only caveat on this is that the Patriots don't have the HOF QB like Miami did.  So, they might not fare quite as well.

     

    This is our division now.

     

     

    They actually won the division one year but we met them in the AFC Championship game in Miami and rolled them 29-3. It was the Thurman screen game where we screened them to death.

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  5. 49 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

    I suspect that Belichick rolls a lot of coverage out there again and makes Josh prove he can methodically move it down the field two games in a row without making a mistake.  For everything we did right in the second game, if JC Jackson catches that ball on the last scoring drive there's a great chance we lose that day.  Pats will keep everything in front of them and it will be up to the Bills to solve the redzone exam inside the 20.

     

    At the end of the day Josh is the best player on the field and I don't think it's going to matter what they do.

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  6. 8 minutes ago, Whites Bay said:

    Oh, my God!  Who wants that woman as a neighbor?  She shows up and someone's dead.  Week in, week out in the same small town.  F that.  Keep away from MY family reunion.

     

     

    I know right?  How the hell does Cabot Cove, population like 500, have more murders than Chicago, Saint Louis and Detroit??  Are there even enough people for them to keep dying there?  If I was a resident of that town I would have gotten hell out of dodge before I am next simply due to there being nobody else left to kill 🤣🤣🤣

  7. 21 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

    For years and years, NFL coaches made decisions based almost completely on heuristics. For those unsure of what a heuristic is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic. Essentially, it is a rule of thumb, or trial and error aiding in decision making. For example, you don't go for it from your own 18 on 4th down, early, and in a close game.

     

    Analytics came along and it including looking at your chances of winning a game if you went for it on 4th down much more. Initially, this challenge to the old line approach proved to be correct because coaches had evolved into punting way to often in opponents territory (Think Doug Marrone punting from the 32).

     

    I would argue that analytics has been taken too far recently and is being misused by some coaches. I would also argue that some of the current decisions (think Brandon Staley) are just recklessly applied analytics. For one thing, the downside of this type of overly aggressive decision-making, the rewards (keeping the ball) vs. the downside risk (giving the opponents points) cannot possibly be worth it.

     

    My current opinion on the situation, which I welcome all of your opinions, is that there is something to be learned from certain analytics. Yes coaches had become too conservative and needing to be pushed to go for it more. But, there is much more to it for consideration by the decision maker. I also do not believe some of these situations coaches go for it(Staley); are using data that accurately represents THIS situation. I question how many times in history some of these situations have occurred to have been studied properly. Apologize for the length. What say you?

     

    The problem with only using analytics is the sample size for a team in a given season.  For instance, it MAY statistically be the right move to go for it on 4th down many times, but that is over a huge sample size.  During an individual season, the sample size is extremely small meaning there is a chance it won't work out to those percentages, similar to if you flipped a coin 30 times.  Sometimes you might get 20 heads or 25 heads instead of 15/15.  Over a huge sample size of like 10K flips, it would be very close to 50/50, but over a smaller sample size there is a lot more variability. With teams only going for it on 4th down maybe 20-40 times a year, the variability is much more pronounced. So while it could be the right decision analytically to go for it, it could also cost a coach his job if he has a string of bad luck/variability due to small sample size and the gamble doesn't pay off.

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  8. 6 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

    I feel like thats when the Bills are at their worst offensively. Make Josh get rid of it early and hope he doesnt escape the pressure.

     

    I feel like the Jets stalled a lot of drives that way. I can easily see Bill replicating that seeing how playing so safe last time didnt work.

     

    What do we do to counter act that style of play? Cause I think we need to be up early in order to hinder their decisions to run the ball. 

     

    I hope they do...that's when Allen can burn them one on one or take off and get huge gains running because all the defenders have their backs turned in man to man coverage.

    • Like (+1) 3
  9. 29 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

    Whoa...game starts WAYYYYY past Marv's bedtime. Early bird special, and episode of Murder, She Wrote and in bed by 6pm. That's how he stays young.

     

    Lmao!! I used to watch Murder She Wrote growing up because it was my Mom's favorite show...Jessica Fletcher...

     

    I used to drive her crazy pointing out all the hard to believe things that happened in it and she had no answers for how they were realistic hahahahaha

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  10. 16 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

    If the Chargers were the team we play, resale ticket sales would have tanked. You might have seen $20 tickets by Friday. With the Pats prices will remain high and the stadium will be packed.

     

    Huh?

  11. 53 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

    I'm only worried about my mom's ability to deal with the cold. She'll be 70 this spring and has never LOVED the cold. We got seasons for the first time this year, as she is the primary reason I'm afflicted with Bills fanaticism. 

     

    This past game against the Jets was a decent training camp for this week's cold. The lack of wind will be VERY helpful. 

     

    There is no such thing as lack of wind in Buffalo in the winter...only days that aren't quite as windy.

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  12. Most likely will be the second coldest game in Bills history with temps in the single digits and a predicted low of 4 for Saturday night. Temps likely somewhere around 7 or 8 degrees at kickoff.

     

    Coldest game was against the Raiders with a temp of 0 during the 1993 AFC Divisional Game which they won to send the Bills to their 4th straight AFC Championship Game. I was at that game against the Chiefs the next week...it was cold but not that cold.

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