Cash
-
Posts
2,593 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Cash
-
-
Great post and mostly great thread. I'll add my draft thoughts as well:
1. Keon Coleman - Overall I'm pretty happy with this pick. I specifically didn't do anything to decide which of the WRs I really wanted; I learned that lesson from the 2008 draft when the top 3 guys I wanted (Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, and actual Bills pick James Hardy) all busted HARD at the NFL level. Unlike the 2008 Bills regime, this regime has earned the benefit of the doubt from me. So I was going in with the hope and expectation of "I hope they get the WR they want". I'm pretty sure they did, so that's good. And while many people have pointed out the risks and downside of this pick, there's some real positives as well. He's Big - 6'3", 210 lbs - that's like perfect Big Receiver size - and shifty enough to be a good punt returner. He's not even 21 yet and will get better athletically. How much better? Hard to say but very few human males have their speed/power athletic peak this young. And his vertical and broad jump (good measures of explosiveness) are already good by NFL WR standards. He also has less experience playing WR than other prospects, which again means he has room to get better.* Watching his highlights, I think his Madden "spectacular catch" rating should be very high and should translate to the NFL. I also think that he looks fast enough, but definitely doesn't have that 5th gear to pull away from guys. I was pretty confident even pre-draft that his game speed was functionally better than his 40 time, and I'm very encouraged by the tracking data from the combine that got posted. But on some of his punt return highlights, you can tell that he didn't get the TD because he didn't have any afterburners to turn on. I can live with that, especially if he can catch 50/50 balls.
Prediction: Starter from day 1; plus player for his career. How plus is up to him.
(*That's the secret to the success of the Josh Allen pick. What the analytics didn't account for was that Allen had never had high-level coaching/training on the technique of playing QB: throwing mechanics, footwork, etc. For at least a decade now, just about every QB with a first-round grade has already had that coaching since high school or at least freshman year of college. So the analytics folks all assume (without realizing it) that QBs fundamentally can't improve in things like accuracy, when actually it's just that the vast majority of 1st-round QBs have already improved a lot in that area.)
2. Cole Bishop - Didn't excite me, but appears to be a solid pick. I like that he's above-average athletically (9.88 RAS!), because McDermott and staff have shown tremendous ability to develop guys in the secondary. So the best case scenario is that Bishop becomes an All-Pro. I'll admit, I was kind of hoping we'd be able to find our guy at S in like the 4th round, but realistically I figured we'd be drafting one early. I love the fact that Bishop seems pretty versatile - that should help disguising coverages and what not.Prediction: Starter by end of 2024; possible star by his peak.
3. Dewayne Carter - This is the last pick where I wasn't actively rooting for WR to be the pick. (I still would've been happy with a WR pick here though.) When Beane talked in his presser about "the team is in transition", this pick came to mind. 3-time captain, chose to stay at Duke despite NIL offers from bigger schools, closely related to multiple former NFL players. This pick best exemplifies some of the overall ethos of the draft: Sustaining & maintaining culture. They went heavily for guys who are going to *like* playing in Buffalo, who are going to be fully bought in to the team and the culture, and who will eventually be captains indoctrinating the next generation into the culture. In terms of on-field, I like-don't-love the pick. 7.67 RAS might mean his upside is fairly limited, but Kyle Williams wasn't the greatest athlete either, so who knows? I noted in the draft day thread that about half of Carter's highlights during the broadcast were rushing from the 1-technique. Seems like he'll start off as a 3tech on regular downs and a 1tech on passing downs. I wouldn't be suprised if he bulks up a bit (10-20 lbs) and winds up playing 50/50 or more at 1tech.Prediction: Rotational player from Day 1; good enough to earn a 2nd contract from the Bills.
4. Ray Davis - Was quite disappointed at first, just based on positional value. So from a strategic standpoint, I don't like the pick. With that said, I really like the player now that I've heard of him. I love the 5'8", 211 lbs build - I think it's one of the best body types for RBs. Give me a 5'8" or 5'9" dude who's stout enough to take hits all day. His RAS of 5.41 doesn't inspire confidence, especially at age 24, but to be honest he looks pretty fast on his highlights. I don't really mind the age or miles on him, because we're looking for immediate production. And I love that he comes in with great pass-catching experience. This regime has definitely overcommitted draft capital to RBs, but I trust their judgment when it comes to the actual picks. Motor is a good NFL player, Moss was a beast when he got the opportunity last year, Cook looks great, and I'm confident Davis will be a good player for the Bills. Having said that, it's still gonna sting if Jacob Cowing or Anthony Gould becomes a draft steal.Prediction: Wins the primary backup job in camp; probably leaves after his rookie deal.
5. Sedrick Van Pran-Granger - I was pretty happy with this pick, in spite of it not being a WR. Center is definitely a need with Morse gone, and you can often find good or even great Cs at this point in the draft. Everyone seems to agree that SVPG is a very good prospect, just not super athletic (7.63 RAS) and has short arms. I think training camp will feature a 3-way competition between McGovern, Anderson, and VPG. I'd be suprised if VPG wins that competition as a rookie, but I think he'll get a chance. Maybe not more than the 1-day audition Baylon Spector got at MLB this past year, but still.Prediction: Makes the team as a rookie; starting C in 2025 unless Anderson turns out to be a stud
5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - Not much for me to add beyond what Logic already said. The player himself appears to be a good pick for the late 5th round, and I like the 9.67 RAS. But... how much of a priority is our #6 linebacker? I don't know if we're going to have 4 more injuries at LB (at the same time) ever again, and even if we did, we'd probably try to trade for a guy instead of putting Ulofoshio out there. But with the new kickoff rules, special teams should be at least a little more important next year, so maybe Ulofoshio can make an impact there?Prediction: Makes the team as core special teamer; not sure if he ever gets above that
5. Javon Solomon - Love this pick! Most good pass rushers come from early in the draft. If a guy this late is going to be any good, there has to be something "wrong" with him. In Solomon's case, he's short and he went to a small school. But his 246 lbs isn't really that undersized (Von Miller is listed at 250 lbs), and almost 34" arms help mitigate the height thing. 7.28 RAS isn't amazing, but his height is a pretty big penalty there, and he's quite good in the explosiveness metrics.Prediction: Strip-sack of Mahomes takes us to the Super Bowl! (Why not?)
6. Tylan Grable - This is another one where I like the player, but don't really like the strategic value of the pick. Grable looks very promising, IF we can keep him on the 53 all year. Similar to pass rushers, you don't find big, athletic LTs this late unless there's something wrong with them. In Grable's case, it's newness to the position after converting from QB to TE to LT (with some RT and guard in there as well). It'll take some time for him to be a plus player at the NFL level, but he's got the athleticism (9.85 RAS) to be not just good, but great - if he gets really good at the technique of the position.Prediction: Bills keep him on the 53 and he's usually a healthy scratch; maybe he winds up a starter in 2-3 years
6. Daequan Hardy - After hearing Beane's press conference, it I think this pick should've been announced as kick returner rather than defensive back. It sounded like the path for him to make the team is to win the punt return job, and in that scenario he'll then be a deeeeep depth player at CB. We don't have a ton of return options on the roster, so he's got a chance. Especially if he can return both punts and new-style kickoffs.Prediction: He doesn't make the 53-man roster; winds up on another team for a few years
7. Travis Clayton - See my comments for Tylan Grable, but even more so. There isn't really a path for him to make the 53 man roster, right? So this pick basically comes down to whether a non-contending team is willing to claim him on waivers and train him while keeping him on the active roster. If we can keep him a Buffalo Bills for a few years, Clayton could be an absolute steal! Plus it's very fun to root for a guy who's literally never played a game of gridiron football in his life. Anyway, one thing I found interesting is that he's been listed at OG just about everywhere I've seen. Not ruling it out, but it would seem like at 6'7", you'd want him at OT instead. Not sure the Bills have actually gotten that far. If it was me, I think I'd try to run him through drills at every position - both to help him understand what each position does and means, and to see how naturally stuff comes to Clayton and how well he picks it up. Mike Tomlin apparently had a plan for Clayton to play on the D-line while also cross-training at OT. I wouldn't rule out DE, OT, OG, or even TE until I'd seen him in practice.Prediction: Oh, like I know. This is a prospect where truly anything is possible. But I'll at least go on record saying that he won't make the 53.
Overall - Pick by pick, I like or can talk myself into every one. But I do have some complaints on a macro level. First, like many others, I didn't think there was enough investment in the WR position. I believe Beane when he says they had other guys higher or felt other needs were greater; I just disagree on our need I guess. I would've tried to make it a priority to get 1 guy from whatever tier Coleman was in, and a 2nd guy from whatever tier Baker and Cowing were in.
Second, this regime sometimes seems too confident in their board. Now, they're definitely solid at scouting - look at how many of our late round picks are still in the NFL, even if not on the Bills. But no one is perfect, and they seem very willing to just punt on a pick when it's not a guy they love. If you know that other teams are gonna claim 3-4 of your cuts on waivers, then maybe it's worth spending that 6th or 7th rounder on a position where you don't like the guy, but he's got a shot to make the team just based on numbers. Sometimes you'll just be wrong in a lucky way, and the guy you didn't like will turn out to be a legit player. Similarly, I'm sure our 4th round RB and 5th round LB are good players, but maybe we'd be better off as a team with 2 rolls of the dice at WR there, and instead try to find our backup RB and special-teams LB in the 6th or 7th. I love both project O-linemen we took late, but there's a pretty solid chance that both are cut and claimed on waivers by another team. If that happens, they were wasted picks.
With that said, I'm fairly happy overall. I liked both trade downs on Day 1, I don't mind selling the 5th rounder for a 4th next year, and I think the commitment to building a new nucleus makes sense. I also like that we have a full complement of picks next year, plus the Vikings 2nd and Bears 4th, and hopefully another 4th and 5th in comp picks. It feels like this year will be a bit of a dip, as the offense and defense figure out what works and what doesn't. I think we're good enough to win the division, but I doubt we're still dead-even with the Chiefs (except for late-game playoff execution) in terms of being the class of the league. And I can live with that. Make the playoffs, have a puncher's chance against anyone, see what happens. Then try to get an impact player in 2025 free agency, and swing for the fences in the 2025 draft.
-
1
-
2
-
-
9 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
If the season started immediately after the Draft or we had a crystal ball that said there won't be any more additions before Week 1 - then, no. We wouldn't have done enough.
But it's only April. And we still have 10+m coming in a month. I've justifiably taken flack and embarrassed myself in the past for having taken Beane at face value when he's said things (ie Nyheim Hines and Stefon Diggs not going anywhere). So why are we all ready to accept his word as gospel now?
Last season, he said the same type of things about liking our Defensive End room. Then he went and signed Leonard Floyd in June.
Ultimately, what I see it coming down to was that looking at what we've done this offseason with Samuel replacing Harty and Hollins replacing Sherfield (and having a 5th Round Pick in Shorter coming off Redshirt from Last Season, to go along with Shakir) - we had the core covered outside of the starters on the Boundary - needing replacements for Diggs and Davis.
Acquiring two WR's in the Draft that you'd feel comfortable both starting really wasn't feasible. You could get one, which we did in Coleman (whether you're a fan of him or not, that was who the brass and Josh wanted and believed in). Even if we could have, this brass is too conservative to trust both starting spots to young men with no experience at the NFL level.
From Pick 60 onwards - 11 WR's had already come off the board and there was no one available that i'd feel comfortable starting on the Outside, let alone them. Anyone drafted from 60 onwards would simply be someone who would replace Hollins or Shorter - underneath Shakir and Samuel on the bottom of the roster and with limited reps.
Could you argue that we should have moved on from Shorter without him developing after his redshirt year and after spending a 5th on him last year? Or replaced Hollins a month after signing him? That's a fair conversation to have. But throwing investments away generally isn't his M.O. (whether you agree with it or not).
But I digress. I feel it ultimately came down to them deciding not so much that we were good to go after Drafting Coleman. But that the only other unaccounted for hole left in the core was better served with another vet than another Rookie, especially with what was left at 60 and beyond.
I expect that to come from a Free Agent or a Trade for someone on a short term contract that wouldn't cost a fortune in Draft Compensation or money. While I wouldn't be opposed to something like Higgins or Aiyuk - I do tend to believe he's not lying when he says he's not interested in handing out a massive new long term contract this offseason.
Whether you feel something like adding a Michael Gallup, Odell Beckham Jr., DJ Chark, Michael Thomas, MVS, or Mecole Hardman is still not enough or not - i'd expect at least that, regardless of what he said at the Post-Draft presser.
Good post! It seems like you’re convinced we’ll sign a vet after June 1st. I tend to agree, but I have more doubt. After listening to Beane’s press conference, specifically when he was asked about June 1 money, he went into a lot of specifics. The overall gist was that we have less $$$ than it looks (so don’t get your hopes up). My personal takeaways:-Beane definitely wants to sign more Floyd-types, but there’s only so much he can do, and even less that he’s willing to do
-He might be worried that we’ll only have the budget for 1 guy. I doubt he’s willing to go heavy into void years for multiple guys
-That 1 guy might wind up a pass rusher
I still think it’s most likely that they make a real effort to sign Beckham, and maybe sign a Chark/Gallup/Thomas if they don’t get Beckham. But it wouldn’t shock me if they decide that those last 3 aren’t a significant upgrade over the guys they already have.
-
-
7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Right. Not nearly enough for camp. Not all of them will make the roster. How many did we go into camp with last year?
I’m not sure we disagree about anything at this point, except just what we consider the word “need” to mean. I won’t be surprised (or mind) if the Bills draft a LB today, and they’ll get at least 1-2 in UDFA as well. And agreed, they do need to add some for camp.-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
As many as we carried last year and Dodson is gone, Matakevich is gone, and Klein is likely retired. So need to re-build that depth.
I dont expect them all to be all-pro all the way down. But the roster needed bodies there.
We’ve got at least 5 on the roster currently. We usually carry 5 actual LBs and a LBINO who’s there for special teams.-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
One missed 3/4ers of the season, again. The other missed a handful of games and had us pulling AJ Klein out of an RV to start for us.
We need LBs.
Honest question: how many do you think we need?We had 4 LBs hurt at the same time last year. Can any NFL team lose their top 4 at one position group and still field a good group?
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, davefan66 said:
Who are our current LB's?
Starters: Bernard, Milano. One was awesome last year, the other is an All-ProReserves:
-Williams. I expect him to be much better mentally in year 2. Looked very promising physically as a rookie
-Spector. Looked pretty good in spot starting duty when forced in. Should still be improving in year 3
-That vet we signed
-Someone I’m forgetting?
Your stance isn’t at all self-evident to me, guy.
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, davefan66 said:
I feel it will be LB. Not sure who. It's a need.
How do you figure LB is a need?-
1
-
-
FWIW, about half of his highlights on ABC were of him playing 1-technique. Seemed like a Harrison Phillips type, and I mean that as a compliment.
-
1
-
-
Is Coleman physical enough to not get destroyed by playoff-style press coverage? And win on contested catches? If so, this was a great pick.
-
1
-
1
-
-
9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Yeah I don't want to trade down again. Stick and pick the best WR on your board. We don't need more picks. If anything we need to part with some of our day three picks. No way we are making four picks in R5. I expect us to draft two players by #55, pick another player in the mid-80s(ish), and ultimately make something like four total picks on day three. Last year we picked 6 players so picking 7 this year sounds about right, and we have 10 total picks to use to move up the board and make sure we get guys that we like.
Agree Beane will be trading up at some point, quite possibly tonight. Could be from 60 (if we don’t go WR at 33, I’d almost bank on this). Could be from 95. Maybe even trade up from the 4th into the end of the 3rd? I don’t know the comp values well enough to say if that’s plausible; it might not be.
Based on his presser, I think Beane is going to seriously listen to offers for 33. But I also think he won’t take any unless it’s a significant overpay. That’s what I hope, at least.
7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:I assume you mean "good on not trading down again"?
I think it’s like, “I’ve had enough of this, thanks. I’m good.”-
1
-
-
7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Hahahaha this thread was all for nothing. Beane said they never even tried to trade up and no one called them about seeing if they wanted to trade up either.
I was pretty certain that we wouldn't make a big trade up, and was very vocal about it. But even I let the rumors get to me thinking well maybe they will even though it made no sense to me.
Gotta love the rumor mill of utter nonsense and BS this time of year haha
Here's Beane's quote: "Did not try to move up. We did not. And we didn't have any calls of people saying 'do you want?'... We were checking the whole night, you know, around our area and back."
I note that to Beane, there's a distinction between "trying to move up" and "checking". He very well may have had calls with teams in the top 10 (likely pre-draft) that got into hypotheticals, but he's saying he never made anyone an offer, not got a call from a team in front of us asking us to make an offer. Which makes sense if you believe the pre-draft rumors that most teams were looking to move up, not down.
I think Beane's decision tree entering last night was something like:
- Draft a player with a 1st-round grade at 28
- Small move-up (not including 60) to draft a player with a 1st-round grade
- Trade down, but not lower than the 35-40 range or so
- Draft a player with a 2nd-round grade at 28
Maybe there's another one in there that's like, "If Rome Odunze falls into the teens, put #60 on the table to move up for him," but it's hard to say since he was off the board at 9. I feel fairly confident they weren't super interested in Brian Thomas Jr, because it probably wouldn't have been cost-prohibitive to move up for him as it played out.
-
1
-
Oof, yeah I’d be pretty upset at that draft.
-
1
-
4
-
1
-
-
Just watched the presser. My two cents:
-“I haven’t called them” has an implicit part: “…about moving into the top 10.” But he also suggested that he will be calling them next week. So what does that tell us? Not much. My guess is that if he thinks all of the top 3 can have a Jamarr Chase like impact as a rookie, Beane will be willing to pay the steep price to move up for whichever one goes third - ESPECIALLY if that guy drops out of the top 10. I agree with others that part of what he’s doing here is managing fan/media expectations. I doubt that Beane thinks we’re truly “1 player away” right now. So I don’t think he’ll do a full mortgage type deal to get up to 7 or 8.
-A smaller move up for BT Jr wouldn’t be surprising, but I don’t expect it. Obviously depends on their grades. If he’s way above the rest of Tier 2, that obviously makes a difference. I think it’s more likely that they move up 1-3 spots for a Tier 2 guy they like significantly more than the rest of the pack. No idea who that would be.
-Conversely, if they have similar grades for all the Tier 2 guys, a trade back would make a lot of sense. Probably for a mid-high 2 and a 3. I don’t expect this. The way Beane was talking about what they look for in WRs, I thinks they’ll have probably 1-2 guys in a Tier that they like way better than the rest of that Tier.
-Agree with Gunner that they’re happy with outside CB in terms of high picks. I don’t see them drafting one before the 4th.
-I continue to think that Beane doesn’t go into the draft with a specific plan. Meaning like, “I’m trading up for Nabors, then taking a safety with my next pick, then fill holes with my remaining picks.” I do think he goes in with preference, and with various possibilities outlined in advance. But the story is written real-time during the draft, so he doesn’t try to go in with a pre-written story. It’s more of an improv exercise than a writing exercise, if that makes sense. If I’m right, then even Beane doesn’t know what he’s going to do yet. And as a side note, I think this is the right way to approach the draft.
-
I said trade back, but if there's no reasonable offers to do so, I'd pick Leggette.
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Ours happens to be the single most important position in all of sports. So he counts as 3 himself.
I was going to say Allen should count double.
BW, I mostly agree with your list. A few thoughts to add:
- Von Miller was supposed to be one of them on defense. It was looking good until he got hurt. There's still a chance (I'd say about 5%) that he gives us some level of Freakazoid play in 2024.
- Rousseau has the talent to get there, but hasn't shown it over the course of a full season yet. Two years ago, he was on pace for like 15 sacks or something when he got hurt. Last year, he spent a ton of time at RE, and was significantly less effective there than at LE. There's still hope, but it would be wishful thinking to include him on the freakazoid list.
-
14 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I would like to know what the story was with that guy. He looked so slow in our offense, was that just me?
Course we only gave him like, 10 snaps per game.
Anyway, I wish him and Nyheim Hines the best (except when they're playing the Bills of course)
I have to take the "L" for both of them, I didn't think they'd be major finds but I thought they would both contribute more than they did.
Yeah, I watch a lot of Saints games, and Harty looked a LOT faster when he played for the Saints. I think some of it was down to utilization in the offense (Daboll was MUCH better at using McKenzie-type guys than Dorsey), but I also think that Harty lost a step or two right before we signed him. Still, that punt return was awesome.
-
19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Penix is possible.... but if you just want the 5th year option on a QB why the Bills at #28? Why not the Lions at #29, the Ravens at #30, the 49ers at #31 or the Chiefs at #32? Probably the Chief would want to stay (and I think in all likelihood move UP) but I think moving back makes sense for the others too. I just don't think it is a given that there are teams battling to have #28.
Usually the reason is that they’re worried about someone else trading up in front of them. I’ve seen behind the scenes war room videos where the Bills start calling teams with a given trade offer, then keep offering the same package to every ensuing team after being turned down. I.e., pick 20 says no, so they offer it to 21, then 22, etc, until someone at like 24 or 25 says yes.
If that scenario was reversed, the Bills could find themselves the first or second team called, and just say yes.
-
51 minutes ago, Bills Fan in MD said:
So how long until Diggs starts making cryptic comments about Stroud?
At least a full year - he'll be in the honeymoon phase for a while.
-
1 minute ago, Pirate Angel said:
When they traded Watkins and Darby the same belief was had by many
FWIW, I was fully on board with those trades at the time, even though I was bummed to lose Darby. Thought we got a good haul for both, and didn’t think Watkins would be much of a loss. (He wasn’t.)
I wasn’t happy about the Dareus trade, but that one was mostly wishful thinking on my part. Dareus was so good until he lost his motivation.
As for this trade? I’m not raging out or crying doom & gloom, but I’m not happy either. Just feels like we’re gonna be told that a 2nd next year is just as good as a 1st, when the Bills trade way up to get a guy who’s not as good as Diggs in 2024. Now, if we keep next year’s #1 and hit on our top WR pick anyway? That’ll change my tune a bit. Also if Diggs does nothing in Houston, that would recalibrate this trade for me. -
23 minutes ago, Einstein said:
Very weak comp.
The Bills wanted him gone.
Agree. The more I think about it, the more I think Diggs was priced to move, and that the FO thinks there’s at least some addition by subtraction in moving him. Will it be enough? Time will tell.-
1
-
-
So close, OP! Great tip that would've paid off if you put some money on Houston. I'm shocked personally, but much less so than I would've been without this post. When the odds move that much, someone knows something that the public doesn't.
-
2
-
-
Oof. In a vaccuum, I'm okay with trading Diggs, but I was hoping for a better haul than this. A second rounder a full year away, plus we're throwing in late picks? Yikes. Maybe Diggs really is cooked at this point if the Bills are willing to sell for that price. Because now you're not just replacing Davis in the draft, you're replacing Diggs as well.
We'd better not sell off next year's #1 to move up for a WR. This could be a down year (so could any year, if Allen gets hurt) and our 2025 #1 could be in the teens instead of the twenties.
-
6
-
1
-
-
Whitner was 1.) overdrafted - would’ve been a good use of a second rounder, but at 8th overall, a safety needs to be a difference maker on the level of Ed Reed or Ronnie Lott, and
2.) NOT Haloti Ngata, who was right there and such an obvious pick
-
1
-
5
-
Did we do enough at wide receiver?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Good call bringing up MLB. I was among the many who were shocked all offseason that they weren't adding more... then it turned out Bernard was really good, and I think the Bills knew it was a matter of when, not if for Bernard.
Any chance we've got one of those in the WR room already?
Of these guys, I'd say Shavers and Hamler are the only ones with a realistic chance of a Bernard-like season in 2024, with maybe an outside outside shot for Shorter. Of course, we don't have the info we need to make a real guess, but hopefully the coaching staff has a better idea based on seeing guys work in the offseason.