Cash
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Posts posted by Cash
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
It's actually not a good throw by Lamar. The reason he drops it is because it is behind him.and he is trying to come back for it while also make sure he falls backwards into the end zone not out at the 1.
Watch it back. That's a lot on the Quarterback.
Yeah, still an egregious drop, especially considering how good Mandrews is, but the throw could’ve been significantly better.-
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9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I increasingly do think it is going to happen. I don't see Jones hiring him (not a big enough name) and McCarthy is now a realistic possibility in Chicago and New Orleans which potentially closes off another spot.
Jacksonville is the wildcard. I have no idea what they are going to do and, likely, nor do they.
New Orleans worries me the most. I’m friends with a bunch of Saints fans, and most of them have been clamoring for Brady. Ownership cares a lot about selling tickets and knows that Brady’s Saints and LSU ties will make him a popular hire.
My hope is that Brady pulls a Ben Johnson and waits it out. (Even if he wants the Saints job, there’s a good chance it’ll come available again in 2-3 years, and by then they’ll be in a better cap situation.)
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Great writeup! I had a tinge of nerves entering last week, and the quick TD didn’t help that. But even so, I wouldn’t say I was ever worried during the game. Going in, it was pretty clear that the Bills were the better team, and that was proven in how the game played out. The better team doesn’t win every game, but as Shaw points out - it’s pretty rare for good teams to beat great teams in the playoffs.
This week, it isn’t clear going in who the better team is. We have the better record, beat both 1 seeds, and are at home. The Ravens whipped us head to head, excelled against a bunch of playoff teams in a tough regular season, and on paper, have the better talent (see All-Pro and Pro Bowl teams).
Before the season, I said we were the best team in the division, and that we’d have a puncher’s chance in the playoffs. I still mostly agree with that. I won’t count us out in any game where Josh Allen is healthy, but this game (and any others, should we advance) is a fundamentally different challenge than the Broncos.
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Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:
his body language it was in part. He put his hand on his chest like "my bad"
Yeah, combined with Josh’s presser I think it was a combo apology/admonishment. Basically “I didn’t flag you for Unsportsmanlike Conduct because I acknowledge it was a miss call, but I’m not going to cut you that slack again.”-
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
If you mean why is he in that category you need the boss I am just the deputy 😃. If you mean why did he get it today? 6 targets, 6 catches, 61 yards. Thought he played a good game.
Plus a great dynamic punt return! (And no mistakes on his other PR attempts)-
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Book your flights for SF now - 2025 Super Bowl here we come!
Seriously though, Martin's had a really nice bounceback year this year, but he's getting pretty long in the tooth. Having Camarda in camp next year is a great idea.
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Just now, Scott7975 said:
Ravens beating the Steelers is no guarantee either. Lamar has been terrible against the Steelers.
…and mostly terrible in the playoffs. Nothing would surprise me in this game - I could see a blowout by either team, or an absolute nail-biter.For the record, I’ll predict that Lamar plays at least okay, and the Ravens win. (Which would mean we’re REALLY hoping he lays another playoff egg the following week.) I don’t think the Steelers can win without a subpar game from Lamar.
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1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:
I thought we were scared and didn't want to play Cincinnati, now it's Denver...... PLEASE!!!! you have to play someone, it's the playoffs. If the Bills play their game they will win, they've proven to be the better team.
Any NFL team can beat any other NFL team, even on the road, and even in the playoffs. So yeah, there’s a non-zero chance we lose this game. But I stand by my pre-Week 18 thought: the Bengals were the team I didn’t want to play. Burrow could just get in a zone where he’s scoring every single time, and you know he’s not going to choke if the game is close. I have a lot of respect for Sean Payton, but there’s no sane world where Bo Nix should be anywhere near as scary.
Simply put: There are no guarantees in life, but I like our chances. The Bills should win this game, even if it’s close.
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1 hour ago, fergie's ire said:
Hyde was always THE returner that McD clearly trusted the most. If things started getting squirrelly and returners were doing boneheaded things, he would put Hyde back there. He wouldn't expect a lot of yards on a return, unless someone on the return team accidentally kicked the ball and then Hyde would pick it up and run for like 50 yards. He was just a calming influence on the return game.
Agreed. Hyde was consistently the best "punt catcher" on the team, and also had some return ability. When McD was most concerned about "not effing up" as opposed to "making something happen", Hyde was usually back there.
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26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I have an aquaintance, not quite friend, who runs a reasonably sized Liverpool FC blog and he has changed his model recently from monthly subscription to pay as you go for their "premium" content. So you sign up, input your card details but then are only charged when you access a premium article. Not sure what his conclusions are yet on if it is working but I thought it was an interesting idea.
Interesting! My assumption is that the economics won't work out for that model, except maybe in some niche cases. But it's cool that someone is trying it. As a consumer, I think it's more appealing to me than a full-on subscription.
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I was dead wrong on this one.
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19 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:
Not what I expected. Looks like their priority is keeping the lines healthy. Clapp gives them 5 full backups to play at OL, and Toohill gives them 4 backup DEs to rotate, along with the 4 backup DTs they already have. -
1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:
Sounds like you know Von pretty well.
I don’t know Von at all, but I have watched a moderate amount of his public-facing persona, especially since leaving the Broncos, and extra especially after joining the Bills. I believe he’s spoken openly about his desire to go into media after retiring? (Plz correct if I’m mistaken on that.) I’m very confident that he doesn’t want bad PR if he can help it. I'm also pretty confident that McBeane will want Von to sit for team-first, strategic reasons. If the rubber really hits the road, I imagine they’d hash it out so that Von sits, but the team agrees to pay some of that $1.5 million, or maybe all if Von kicks ass in the playoffs. Either way, I don’t think Von suits up.
QuoteEspecially being a big name player with a big name agent, my gut feeling is that this matter has already been agreed upon by both sides. JMO.
I agree with this.
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1 minute ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
I personally think we will whoop them when in our house. Pretty sure McD and Babich have a bad taste in their mouth from earlier this season and will have a masterful plan to stop the Ravens, plus we’ll have the crowd in our favor too. And Josh will want to show everyone what a real MVP does in the playoffs.Whether fair or unfair, I'm at the point where I'm expecting Lamar to fail in the playoffs until he proves me wrong. He has a pretty robust history of playing worse in the playoffs now, and I have to think there's real psychological factors at play. Doesn't mean that they'll last forever but I'm going to ride the streak till it ends.
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33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
But he agreed to take a pay cut on the basis he'd have the opportunity to earn some back. I hope he and Beane could have a sensible chat about it but he might justifiably be pissed if the "opportunity" is scaled back by a game.
Perhaps. I think it would be simpler with a more guaranteed incentive, like # of snaps or just playing in the game. In that scenario, I think they'd sit him anyway, then do a mini-restructure to give him the incentive money in the offseason. I think that's pretty common when a player misses out on an incentive by doing what's best for the team.
In this case, where a sack is far from guaranteed even with a full workload, Hypothetical Whiny Von wouldn't have as good a case. (And if Beane wanted to be a dick, he could point out that Von's suspension cost him much more opportunity than getting vet rest.) Ultimately my guess is that Actual Von will care more about the potential for injury and chance to rest for the playoffs than he will about the $1.5 million. If he plays on Sunday, I'll stand corrected.
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21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Is it regular season only? If it is maybe he plays Sunday then. I'd been working on the basis he'd be one of the vets that sat.
I still think he sits. He’s made enough money (and cares enough about his image) to not make a stink over $1.5 mil.-
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What do we think the O & D will look like by the 3rd quarter? I'll take a stab at it:
QB: Trubisky
RB: Ray Davis, unless Frank Gore gets one of the PS callups
FB: Gilliam, and he may play a lot
TE: Morris, probably with Gilliam as TE2
WR: Hollins, Coleman, & KJ Hamler (PS callup)
LT: Van Demark
LG: SVP-G or Anderson
C : Whichever doesn't play LG
RG: Torrance
RT: Grable
DE: Solomon & Smoot, with some Epenesa mixed in
DT: 4-man rotation of Carter, Johnson, Phillips, and Jefferson
LB: Andreessen & Ulofoshio
NCB: Ingram
CB: Elam & Codrington
S: Bishop & PS callup (Jackson or Cine)
Feels like I'm off in the secondary - feels like Cam Lewis will be playing. Maybe Ingram plays on the boundary and Cam plays nickel?
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8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I agree with your concern about Trubisky, but McDermott has said they are going to find it difficult to elevate White due to "numbers".
If that's the case, I'd be fine with having just Trubisky & Allen. If Mitch gets hurt, Josh can come in and exclusively hand off for the rest of the game. If that means a bunch of 3 and outs, so be it.
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39 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
We're good on cookware. Primary set is Le Creuset enameled cast iron, cast iron dutch oven. We needed to replace our ceramic coated aluminum pan this summer and chose to do so with stainless steel that said it was induction ready. Inherited two cast iron frying pans we electrolyzed and re-seasoned, and a stainless steel Cuisinart saucepan. I am a bit worried about my copper-bottom stainless steel stockpot but the copper is just a coating over the stainless steel so if a paper towel under the stainless steel pot works, copper below the stainless steel should work?
Only thing I'll for sure have to replace is my two burner non-stick aluminum griddle. We may choose not to do so since I have an electric griddle, but I'll probably keep my eyes open for a cast iron rescue baby.
I gotta say the $100/yr for a service plan would grinch me out at the price point we're looking at. We have had to replace the oven igniter in our range (which was a matter of picking up the part and swapping it in), but other than that it's been a Beast.
I'm pretty happy with gas, but I do have respiratory problems so in addition to the "adopt technology while still flexible enough to master it" thing, I do think the air quality concerns are real. My kid made a point that she could really tell the difference in the air quality of our kitchen vs. her no-window, poorly ventilated kitchen because of our gas range (vs. her electric).
Copper should work fine but definitely test with a magnet to be sure.
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6 hours ago, Augie said:
Does induction require replacing your cookware?
I never had gas until about 15 years ago, and I’d have a hard time giving it up now. I look at a lot of houses (it used to be a profession, now it’s just a hobby) and if they don’t have gas I’d consider induction. Running a gas line to our last house in Florida was possible, but it was going to be a big deal. Induction might have been perfect there.
As others have pointed out, maybe. It's called induction because a magnetic field "induces" heat in the pan itself. If a magnet sticks to your existing cookware, then that cookware should work fine with induction. Some but not all stainless steel works, I think all cast iron works, and anodized aluminum works as well. If you're happy with gas, I'd say stick with it. But if it isn't available, you'll find that induction is the next best thing.
22 minutes ago, Beck Water said:Thanks for the response! Do you mind me asking how much the motherboard repairs cost and what mfr your stove is?
I'm concerned about the durability of the glass surface. Any input there?
I do love my gas range and make notes of which burner/approx analog setting I used to cook various dishes. Being able to put a paper towel under the pot on an induction range is wild, as is @f0neguy's story of his son's steel plate. Like I said, we figure we should make the change before we lose the mental flexibility to really adopt.
Manufacturer: Jenn-Air.
We pay about $100/year for a service plan, and that covers any service calls we make. I think every time we've had to make a service call, they've fixed it same day (including other appliances besides the oven/range). I think the part itself would normally cost something like $350 plus labor, but that's from a few years back and it's probably more now. (Also probably going up more if US tariffs go up as proposed - it's the one part of the stove not made in the US.)
Durability of the glass surface: Very happy on that front. Haven't done anything to majorly put it to the test, but it's handled normal kitchen wear & tear very well. Currently spotless with no scratches or anything.
I forgot to mention the cookware aspect, so thanks to those who did. I would highly recommend using a magnet to test all of your current cookware before deciding to switch.
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I’ve had induction for about 8 years now. Compared to old school electric, it’s not even close. Induction blows it away. Compared to gas, it’s fairly close, with a small edge to gas.
Rapid heating: My induction is great at this, and performs as well as gas. And one nice feature of induction is that the range surface doesn’t get that hot, which helps avoid major cleaning hassles if something does boil over. You can even put a paper or dish towel under the pot as extra protection.
Temperture control: Good, but gas has an advantage here in being analog. Mine has temperature levels from 1-9, plus a “boost” mode for boiling water and such. Occasionally something will need to be toggled between two numbers while cooking, but that’s pretty rare. For me personally, I actually prefer this aspect to gas, because I can write down what level worked best.
Reliability: We bought from a local place that does service, and we’ve needed it twice. Both times a motherboard in the control panel had overheated and needed to be replaced. Other than that, zero performance or reliability issues.-
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6 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:
your pick was safe. That being said, I don't think any of us would of predicted 10 or less to win the division. Shocking part of the story.
Didn't surprise me FWIW - I was pretty confident that we’d still win the division even if I was off by 1 on the low end (meaning we went 10-7). My thought process:-Patriots’ ceiling is maybe 6-8 wins.
-Jets are being hyped up by media for $$ reasons. Rodgers is too old, coming off a major injury that usually takes 2 years to fully recover from, and is an egomaniacal nutjob. Even if nothing blows up and Rodgers hits his best case scenario, they’re probably topping out at 9-10 wins.
-Dolphins lost more talent than we did due to cap reasons, they were paper tigers even before then, and Allen/McD completely own them. A sweep is all but guaranteed, meaning we get any tiebreaker. Similar to the Jets, I saw their best case as around 9-10 wins.
All of these went significantly under their best case scenario, true. But even if one or more hit, I still think a 10-7 Bills team is 4-2 or 5-1 in the division and wins outright or via tiebreaker.
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On 8/29/2024 at 3:08 PM, Cash said:
Now that we know the initial 53-man roster, and the practice squad is set (possibly pending Jalen Virgil), it's prediction time. This is the time every year that I make my one (1) prediction for the Bills regular season. My track record is pretty good - I'm generally +/- 1 win from the Bills' actual total. I don't go game-by-game; instead I try to look holistically at the Bills as a team for the full season. I do take overall strength of schedule into account, but upsets happen both ways, so I think it's futile to predict the results of each week well in advance. Likewise, injuries happen, guys have big games here and there, etc. There's some averaging out, but overall a really good team tends to win more than a fairly good team, which tends to win more than a mediocre team, and so on.
So with that preamble aside, I'll go on record: I'm predicting 11 wins from the Bills this year. I also think that takes the AFC East and gives us a puncher's chance in the playoffs.
First time I can think of that I was off by more than 1, and I’m thrilled about it!To be fair to me, I think I would’ve picked at least a game higher if I’d known we’d have Cooper by the trade deadline.
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21 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:
Savage!
So happy we have #26. Definitely will be a weapon in the playoffs.
Go Bills!
Hot fire 🔥
That FG Decision by McDermott
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
That's one of the things that’s bothered me about the analytics-driven insistence to go for it more: they’re assuming a fixed rate of 2pt success. But historically, teams were very rarely going for 2, and typically had either one or two “2 point plays” in their game plan for a given week. Basically your best play that you think will get you those few yards if your guys don’t screw up. And if you don’t go for 2 that game (or don’t need to use it for a crucial 4th and short), you keep that 2pt play in reserve for next week, so that teams don’t have tape on it. There’s no way that success rate under those conditions is sustainable with heavy increases in attempts.
NOTE: That’s not to say that teams were getting it right in the past. The analytics movement has correctly highlighted that coaches were being too conservative in both 2 pointers and especially 4th down decisions. My point is that the attempts to quantify the optimal decisions are based on incorrect assumptions, and many of the people using these models appear to have no ability to question their model’s assumptions, and never acknowledge the error inherent to all modeling. In short, they have a point but they take it too far.