Cash
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Posts posted by Cash
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Big time NO from me. Sammy Watkins trade 2.0.
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Haven’t had a chance to read the whole thread. Has anyone pointed out that back-to-back defending champ Andy Reid was also just quoted as saying “it’s hard to win in the NFL”? Is it time to just get over Dick Jauron saying a true statement that no one wants to hear during a mediocre stretch of football, or should the Chiefs be looking to move on from Reid?
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Not in order of need or preference:
1. RB
2. Starting level WR
3. Backup level WR
4. TE
5. Swing OT
6. Back IOL
7. DE
8. Another DE
9. DT
10. Another DT
11. CB
12. Starting level S
13. Backup level S
Obviously that can change as veterans are signed, but that’s 13 roster spots I’d be very comfortable with draft picks in.
This is the year we’re taking our medicine. It’s no longer the case that our roster is super deep with well-paid vets. Those late-round picks that we’ve been cutting who are still in the league? There’s now room for them on the active roster. Let’s embrace that.
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AJ is ready for more PT IMO. I’d like to see his snap count over 50% and see what he can do with it. As a plus, he plays on the right side, which lets Groot stay on the left where he’s more effective. Last year Groot spent way more time on the right side than ever before and I think it hampered him.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea I just said that in the Edwards thread. I gotta think one of our first four picks is gonna be on a lineman now!
Not sure I agree. They probably think their starting 5 is set, and like Anderson as backup C and probably Van Demark as backup LT. It they think Anderson can backup all 3 interior spots, they could definitely wait till the 5th or later to draft OL.
I do think they’ll look to draft at least 2 OL - 1 interior and 1 tackle.
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I don’t think the Bills would be interested in Jeudy - doesn’t have a mindset compatible with their culture. Sutton maybe though.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
They definitely like Anderson. It was very telling to me that after a strong pre-season last year at no point did the Bills dare expose him to waivers. They put him on the 53. Then even when they had obvious needs - at linebacker and punter for example - caused by injuries later in the year and they were trying to bolster those positions with street FAs they never cut Anderson even though he was the unused 9th OL all year. They were not willing to risk losing him.
Agreed. My take is that they think Anderson will be better than Bates next year, and best case scenario ready to start the year after. Having said that, I still hope they draft a guy who can play C this year - maybe 5th round or so. -
On 3/5/2024 at 1:03 PM, JohnBonhamRocks said:
Wow thank you this is great. Confirmation bias for me liking Worthy and being concerned about how often Coleman is making contested catches. Did not know it was so rough for Mitchell. Going to have to look further into those other guys at the top.
It’s very tricky though. Are guys at the top up there because they’re always open? Or because the QB doesn’t trust them except when they’re wide open? (And when they’re wide open, is that because they ran a great route, or because they were schemed open?)
I notice MH, Jr is pretty high up but not at the top. Makes sense, because he gets open a lot, but also his QB is often willing to throw it even when the CB is blanketing Harrison.
i personally wouldn’t draw any conclusions from these numbers, unless in combination with extensive review of play by play film.
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10 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:
I thought teams chartered jets with all first class seats so this shouldn't be an issue. i guess I misheard.
That’s what I thought, too! I was very surprised. I suppose it’s possible someone just lied to make the Bills look bad, but if so it would be pretty easy for the Bills to prove it was false: just do a One Bills Live special on the team plane. I think it’s true - why else would we be dead last?
5 hours ago, Beck Water said:The thing is, if their charter is a standard configuration of 737, there are something like 16 first class seats.
So I can see where, if you allocated them to players, that could quickly become an issue too. "OK, Josh Allen gets a seat, the starting OL and DL get 10 seats, but now what? Rotational DLmen? The long snapper? The starting TE - who is that, Kincaid or Knox or both? The starting LB - wait a minute, is Bernard bigger than the nickel corner? Oh, what about the biggest stars, they should get one, move over and let Diggs have that seat.
I could see where it could quickly become a divisive issue giving the players the players the 1st class seats
Right, which is why I assumed that all NFL teams owned their own planes, and had the interiors configured to have many giant seats. Like, 60 or more. I guess not though? But bottom line is that we rank 32nd out of 32. I’m not cool with that. -
10 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Yeah I'm just not impressed by 8th or 7th. With Jared Goff as your QB that's an impressive ranking. With Josh Allen it's below par. And I don't even care about the rankings that much, the schedule and different game situations have a big effect on that.
It is a fact though that each of the past few seasons has featured a midseason slump from the passing offense which has directly contributed to us missing out on the #1 seed. Those slumps typically have featured below par production from the WRs. This year against the Chiefs in the playoffs we got nothing from our WRs other than Shakir. Again this directly contributed to us losing the game. Enough is enough.
I couldn't agree more. That's why I'm a proponent of overstocking the WR room for the first time since 2020 when the passing offense was clearly the best in the Josh Allen era.
I've said before that adding pass catching talent is the easiest means to making a significant improvement on the team. Diggs, Beasley, and Brown all had career years here. Kincaid came in as a rookie and immediately broke a couple franchise records. What have all our depth DL signings amounted to? Nothing meaningful. With Allen as our QB we should have an offense capable of out scoring any team through sheer firepower. And we should be able to overcome a few bumps and bruises to our WR corps in the middle of the season.
I largely agree on this. Like I’ve said elsewhere on this board, I’m basically ready to punt on the idea of pressuring Mahomes in the playoffs. It’s been about 3 straight years of throwing huge resources at the pass rush with nothing to show for it in the playoffs. If those moves had panned out, they’d have been great, and maybe it just comes down to Von Miller getting hurt. But they didn’t pan out, and I think it’s fair to say we try a different tack at this point.
Hap is right that we’ve had a mid season swoon for a while now, and since Daboll left we’ve had big consistency problems on offense. I think it’s fair to ask for a better overall coaching ouevre next year, especially on offense. And that could help a lot, regardless of talent. But I don’t think we’re gonna get Andy Reid level coaching anytime soon. And Spags is back for at least one more year. If we face them in the playoffs again, he’s gonna be willing to play press man and dare our guys to win those 1 on 1s. Up till recently, Diggs was that guy, and would feast when any DC tried that. Diggs wasn’t that guy down the stretch. The best case (plausible) scenario is that he was playing hurt. If that’s true, then we really need a second guy in case Diggs gets hurt again. The other plausible scenario is that Diggs is starting to show signs of slowing down. And if that’s true, we ESPECIALLY need another guy.
Having said all that, I just want to point out that Leonard Floyd and Deonte Harty each signed for about $9 million, right? Some of the WR names I’ve seen thrown around could very easily be worse than Harty, and Floyd absolutely helped us win games. So I’m a little more agnostic on where those few veteran FA dollars should go. I just want them to be well spent in hindsight.
My bottom line: I still think we need to commit significant resources to the offensive skill players, most notably at WR. Unless someone crazy falls all the way to us, our first draft pick should be a WR. And I’d have no problem if they went WR again in round 2 or 3.
Hypothetical question: What if we drafted a repeat of 2013? Basically meaning we draft this year’s versions of Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin? I’m not sure if I’d be happy or disappointed.
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14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I seem to recall some comments from the last report card that the team's nutritionist or dietician was shared with the Buffalo Sabres so the players felt they didn't have enough time to craft individual programs for them.
I'm surprised by the "team travel" thing though, because I remember McDermott saying that the Pegulas had ensured they were comfortable when they traveled, and he appreciated that.
Hopefully someone will look into the basis for these ratings and fix them.
Right, and this is the team where players have played in 4 Superbowls the last 5 years and won 3 of them.
Boggles the mind - like, the other 31 owners want to be that guy
Per Alaina Getzenberg, one of the complaints from the survey is that staff gets priority in airplane seating, leaving the biggest dudes (players) in coach-size seats. (Which seems like a very legit beef to me.) So I guess McDermott is indeed very comfortable, with his 5'9" self relaxing luxuriously in first class. 😆-
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5 hours ago, SCBills said:
Yea, it's not a slam dunk either way. For me, I think this team just needs to get younger in certain spots. I'm fine paying 10M'ish for a good 30 year old pass rusher or a bit more for a younger wide receiver on a 1-2 year deal. I'm not really that interested in paying 10M to a 30 year old cornerback, and I'm definitely not interested in making a multi-year commitment to a 30 year old cornerback.
But Douglas is a good player and it's a shame that he was probably at 50% in the KC game. Floyd disappeared down the stretch, so for me, he's a thank you for your service but let's see what else we can do on the DL.
Totally see what you're saying and partially agree. But 30 isn't 35, and Douglas was such a spark to the defense that I'd prefer to have him back if possible. Under McDermott, even when our defense is playing really well, not everyone on it has that "big play" mentality. By which I mean, actively looking to make a play rather than trying to not give up a big play. (As an aside, Jairus Byrd had some great comments on that back in the day, with the gist being that when the ball's in the air, he views it as his ball, not the receiver's ball.) You don't need everyone on the defense to have that mentality, but I think you need a few leaders to have it for sure, and Douglas showed it big-time last year.
I seem to be in a very small minority, but I also wonder if Benford might move to S this offseason. I know he's been good at CB, and I'm fine with him staying at CB. But it seems to my amateur eyes that his strengths at CB would also be major assets at S. His size is great for what the Bills usually have at S, too. I just wonder if he's a good CB who could be an elite S. Both Hyde and Poyer were originally drafted at CB...
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7 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I think you're correct in terms of how this organization has functioned.
However, we're entering a new era. One where they won't have the luxury of 6-12M vets all over the roster.
Does the staff have more faith in a young player like Kaiir Elam being able to hold down CB opposite Christian Benford in Year 3, with 10M in saving to be used elsewhere or do they have more faith in going young on the DL or at WR.
Would you rather have Rasul Douglas or Hollywood Brown? Rasul Douglas or another Pass Rusher?
1.) Probably Rasul Douglas. I don't think Hollywood Brown is that good, and he's a risk to be a malcontent if he's not playing enough.
2.) That's a tough one. Do I know if the pass rusher will be any good? Floyd was an awesome signing this year, but even then our pass rush was invisible in the playoffs. If the choice is between Rasual Douglas and "good pass rush in the playoffs", I want the latter. But I honestly don't think that option is realistically on the table, so I think I'd take my chances on having a good and deep back 7? To some extent I think we should start defending Mahomes in the playoffs by spying him with 3 guys and rushing zero. I'm just demoralized at this point.
1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:He sort of half suggested they want AJE back because he talked about "it only takes one team to be willing to overpay a guy and you lose 'em" and the only guy I could see that happening with is Epenesa. He also hinted another dust settles June move like Leonard Floyd could be in the offing to fill that unit out.
Would make sense. Similar to Floyd, if there's a proven vet out there, we offer an opportunity to play and contend for a title. As long as the money is competitive, there's real appeal there. And in general, I wouldn't be shocked to see us sign a guy or two to those 1-year "prove it" deals. Agents know that big playoff moments get guys paid, and we're very consistent about being involved in big playoff moments. (And just big moments in general - the last few years, we've been on the losing side of the game of the year pretty consistently.)
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2 minutes ago, Logic said:
I'd be quite surprised if they cut Rasul Douglas, particularly after the cap number wound up being higher than Beane and co. expected.
If he was a free agent and the Bills were just choosing not to re-sign him, then I'd understand. But given that he's under contract for 2024 for an extremely reasonable $9.9million, and given that the Bills gave up a pretty good draft pick for him, and given that he was their best defender in 2023...it would seem absolutely crazy to me to just cut him outright.
I fully believe that they may want Elam to see the field more, but this regime has always been about "the best players play" and "everyone earns their spot", and it's hard to argue that anyone in our secondary has EARNED playing time over Rasul Douglas.
The ONLY way I could see them moving on from Douglas is if they've committed to drastically change the way they play their corners, and to move to more of a man-based scheme. But I doubt that's the case, because then they'd be relying on a twice-seriously-injured Tre White and a still-unproven Kaiir Elam, as Benford is also not a fit in a man scheme.
I say Douglas is far more likely to be extended long term than to be cut, and I will be seriously surprised if he IS cut.It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, that's for sure. The only prediction I'm comfortable making is that we won't get any meaningful contributions from Tre this year - or at least for most of the year. Based on how tentative he played coming back from his ACL tear, and knowing an Achilles tear has an even longer recovery period. I don't know if his future lies at CB or S, or if he'll ever get back to a "Tre White" level of play. But I'd be suprised if he's a plus player in September or October (probably even November) this year. I'm hoping the Bills consider that in their contract negotiations with Tre. I love the guy, and ideally would like to see him back, but it feels like this is a rehab year, not a Pro Bowl year. You can't pay a guy what he's making to rehab.
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14 minutes ago, finn said:
Yes, he was terrific. But he did have some odd moments of standing around. At least twice I wondered, "Who in the hell is 31?" Also, Elam's upside is pretty high. He's got length, size, speed, athleticism, and (we're told) a solid work ethic. You would think his weaknesses--tackling and zone awareness--could be learned. But busts do happen. Anyone old enough to remember James Williams, the Bills' fast, athletic 1990 first-round pick at cornerback?
Anyway, yeah, a tough call. If Beane extends Douglas, he'll have a solid corner and good depth for at least two or three years, albeit an older one (Douglas will be 30 in August). But his salary cap problems deepen. If he doesn't extend him, he saves a nice chunk of change but is gambling that either Elam or White can hold up that side.
Given that it's a lean year and we have no DL depth, I would understand if Beane rolled the dice.
Oh yeah. AKA J.D. Williams. He's the guy who changed his number in the hopes that officials would forget who he was, because he thought he was typecast as a guy who commits a lot of penalties. (It didn't work.) He either went from 29 to 31 or vice versa, I think.
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6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I agree with much of what you say, they only thing I'm skeptical about is the "4th and 25" as an option. With the way officiating has been I would hate to see some ticky tack PI, some no call on an obvious PI or one of those ridiculous "toss it short and force the DPI" plays having a factor.
In theory it works. Picking up 4th and 25 is likely the same odds of recovering an inside kick. Just too many ways the "human element" comes into play for my own comfort.
My problem with that idea (besides the fact that special teams are fun and cool) is that it just gives even more priority to having a top-tier passing offense. The run game is already heavily devalued as it is; I don't think we need more rule changes to devalue it further.
Bottom line for me: If you want all passing all the time, and super high scores, we already have the Arena League for that. I don't mind watching AFL once in a while, but it's like an overly sweet dessert. A couple bites are nice, but I'm not having a bowl of Skittles for dinner.
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1 hour ago, MRW said:
This is what I favor, except I'd just eliminate OT in the regular season. Don't want the game to end in a tie? Go for 2 on a late/game-ending TD. But I think I'm in a very tiny minority that would be ok with that.
There are dozens of us!(Also, I favor the full quarter approach for playoff OT, but think it should be sudden death if tied after the quarter.)
2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:But there is the issue...they are not equal advantages. That is the point people are making on college vs pros.
The OT rule is improved now, but college system is still the single only true equal opportunity structure.
Counterpoint; College overtime SUUUUUUCKS. No special teams, virtually no value in field position, takes way too long, and feels like something out of the XFL. Count me out.
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Good for him! No hard feelings.
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How do you know if you’re trading up for Julio Jones or Sammy Watkins?
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On 2/1/2024 at 11:35 AM, Kirby Jackson said:
Lol, I do not believe in any of this. The game has changed. If Josh doesn’t run, he isn’t nearly as effective. We should have NEVER talked about limiting his carries. Let Josh be Josh. If the Bills are going to reach their goals, in this era, it’ll be because Josh Allen took them there. He’s the franchise and that’s more true now than at any point since he got here. Go play his game and let the chips fall where they may.
I think we should limit the designed runs in the regular season. (And we have, for early season at least.) I completely trust Allen’s judgment when it comes to scrambling, and don’t want the coaches messing him up by harping on it too much.-
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18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I'd say they were about 10 executable plays away from winning that game. It was do-able and it was the route to victory. But 2-3 is seriously downplaying it. But OK, if 1 was the TD to Shakir.......the other 2 were what? A sack that they have never had in 3 playoff games against Mahomes? An interception when they hadn't turned the ball over offensively and his receivers were largely running wide open all day?
I'll bite.
- 2nd and 9, hit Diggs on the short crosser. Sets up 1st and 10 from the 16, KC calls timeout #2 with about 1:51 remaining
- 1st and 10, run for 3 yards. KC calls timeout #3 with about 1:44 remaining
- 2nd and 7 from the 13, run for 4 yards. Clock runs down to about 1 minute
- 3rd and 3 from the 9, run for 4 yards. Clock runs down to about 25 seconds
- TD on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down. Bills have 2 timeouts left so running is still viable. Maximum time left is about 20 seconds.
There you have it - 5 plays, all on the final drive, and we're up 4 and need to prevent a TD in the last 5-20 seconds. The runs could also be checkdowns instead.
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Thanks for posting! Some of these reporters need to be willing to be boring. No one is "A PROBLEM" at a Senior Bowl practice. And if a guy's 1-day practice performance is "making me feel things", it's time for some serious self-reflection.
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Excellent post. And a great point about sample size.
I’ve seen this a couple times, but not many: what the models should be spitting out is the “break even” probability for going for it. (And with all of the assumptions, approximations, and missing variables, they should probably be rounding to the nearest 10%.) If I’m a coach, that’s what I want to know. Do I need an 80-90% chance of success to be worth going for it, or is it closer to 50/50? And comparatively, how much do I trust my offense/playcall/QB against their defense right now?
And on another note, the advantage of being up 3 scores vs 2 is significant. If the model (or the coach making decisions based on the model) didn’t take that into account, that’s a major problem.
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Thinking of you @whorlnut. Best wishes.
2024 WR Draft Class
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Given that it came from Warren Sharp, I wouldn’t be shocked if he took Legette’s YPPR against man coverage and compared it to everyone else’s overall YPPR, or otherwise was shady statistically. Dude is either a scam artist or stupid.