Cash
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Posts posted by Cash
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45 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
He still finished 7th in receptions, 13th in yards
Yeah, his first half (or thereabouts) was massive numbers. The hope would be that he tailed off due to some injury he was hiding, but I’m not sure I buy it. If he’s playing hurt, why throw him a ton of screens? And what injury causes you to get the drops for the first time in your career?
If it wasn’t physical health, I’m wondering if it was mental health, or something else. There has to be a reason his performance dropped off so dramatically - even adjusting for changes in usage under Brady. It’s probably a combination of factors, but I think there’s one main reason that Diggs knows, but we don’t.
I’d love to know that reason. And if it’s something that’s likely to carry forward into next year. At Diggs’ age, I’m going to assume that it will carry forward unless I have reason to believe otherwise. And I think that’s where the “not a #1 WR” sentiment is coming from. They’re assuming that 2024 Diggs will be the same guy we saw down the stretch this year. And that guy was not what people think of as “a #1 receiver”.
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
The point about small ball is a good one. Bills intentionally developed the short passing game this season, and it naturally leads to more YAC.
And I've been meaning to come back to my earlier post. I don't pay much attention to YAC, and all I did was go grab the stat and post it. I looked again later, and although the Allen was, in fact, 6th in YAC, he was 19th in YAC per completion, which is probably the more relevant stat. So, even though is YAC improve considerably, given the number of passes he completed, he still wasn't generating a lot fo YAC.
Having said that, I don't care about YAC. Coaches do, in some sense, but I think it's one of those stats that is illuminating about some aspects of a guy's game, what matters is completions and yards and touchdowns. If Allen improves his YAC per completion to top 10, it's still going to be only maybe 300 more yards per season. That's nice, of course, but that's not what will make the difference between what we got this season and what we all want. 300 yards is 300 yards, and if they get 300 more yards more from the receivers and not one more yard of YAC, it's the same 300 yards. Or 300 yards from special teams. Or 300 yards in INT returns.
YAC's a detail.
My thoughts:
- I prefer RAC (run after catch) to YAC (yards after catch). No beef with anyone who disagrees; just personal preference.
- I'm too lazy to look it up, but I would expect that our RAC numbers look very different under Dorsey vs under Brady. My guess is we were somewhere around 28th in RAC/completion under Dorsey, and probably close to 10th under Brady. Shakir especially starting getting some great RAC once Brady took over.
- Like Shaw says, what matters is yards & TDs. A throw into the endzone, by definition, can't get any RAC. But no coach, player, or fan would ever think it's bad to complete a pass in the endzone if you're trying to score.
- I think a lot of RAC is scheme dependent (see #2). Both in terms of what plays are called and how they're designed. An offense with a lot of screens, crossers, and swing passes is going to get more RAC than one that mostly throws hitches and deep outs. Obviously there's a player component as well - ball placement by the QB makes a difference, and skill players who are fast and/or can make a guy miss, etc.
- So what? So RAC is only important when it's important. By which I mean overall numbers don't tell you much of a story. What the coaching staff should be (and probably is) doing is looking at plays where we could or should have gotten signficant RAC, and determining why we got it or why we didn't.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't agree that our oline got outplayed. Even second half. I think both offensive lines neutralised both defensive lines. I don't buy that the whole team underperformed on Sunday and yet was 1 or max 2 plays from beating the Chiefs. Unless of course you believe on paper we are just a lot better than them and I don't think that. I think they are two very evenly matched teams. The last 4 matchups have gone right to the wire. We are 2-2 in those games. Sadly they won the 2 most important ones. We had chances in both but couldn't make a play. They had chances in both the regular season games too and couldn't make the play they needed.
Agree to disagree on the O-line, but I'll concede that they held up much better than the D-line. And I think I came across more strongly than I intended to. I wholeheartedly agree that the teams are evenly matched. Regarding the bolded: I don't purport to know anything definitively, but it feels like it's not a coincidence that they've won all 3 of the playoff matchups, including both of the close ones. (I also don't think it's a fait accompli by any stretch - I 100% believe we would've won the 13 Seconds game in OT if we'd won the coin flip, and we could've stolen the win last week with a perfect final drive.) Andy Reid seems to save his best stuff for the playoffs, and Mahomes has shown that he's basically never going to make a mistake against us in the playoffs. There's a mental toughness there that our team sometimes has, but sometimes doesn't.
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2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
Last Bills game I attended was Thad vs the Bengals. Great game but sad ending.
Not the most recent one, but I did see Thad duel Drew Brees in the Superdome back in 2017. SPOILER: Brees won the duel.
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1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I'll say this for any and all "trade Diggs" conjecture:
No. Not in 2024. No way, no how. Especially the "no how" part. As in, the Bills would incur a $4 million cap LOSS on top of what they would have to pay the new guy in a year where they desperately need cap space. There's a reason that player for player trades don't happen often, and it's more commonly player for picks.
If the Bills hit every lever to free up space, effectively say good bye to all departing free agents (bye Floyd, Epenesa, Shaq, Dodson, Dane Jackson, DaQuan, Phillips so most of our defense) and need to hit on nearly every draft pick as an immediate starter the Bills could maybe trade Diggs for picks. What worth all that, multiple first rounders? We ain't getting that for Diggs.
Diggs is a near certain lock to be on the roster in 2024. And, let's face it, likely 2025, because the Bills are so cap strapped I don't see how we field a roster anywhere as close to last year without restructuring or extending him.
I think you hit the nail on the head - it's the HOW part. In his year-end press conference, Beane said something about having to be very careful about every dollar they spend. I doubt he thinks they can afford a $4mil cap hit just to get rid of Diggs.
Now, if this was the NBA's cap? I'd be calling Tampa about doing a sign & trade of Diggs for Mike Evans. And in a cap-free world, I'd be calling Jerry Jones and selling him on adding another star, while also reuniting the Diggs brothers. All for just the low, low price of this year's first round pick. (In the cap-free scenario, I'm also doing whatever I can to sign Evans outright.)
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
1 - personnel issue not a coaching issue. We cannot separate vertically at all. We are forced to play small ball. Dorsey got fired because he was still trying to run an explosive offense with players that couldn't do it. We have to get more explosive in the offseason.
2 - yep it has. Being down to our third string linebackers did not help. KC exploited that masterfully.
3 - I disagree.
Agreed on 1 & 2.
On point 3, I hope you're right. My worry though, is that the team is consistently close to KC, but also consistently just enough worse to lose these big games. I still haven't read Tyler Dunne's full hit piece* on McDermott, but the "tightness" talked about in the free section does seem to add up with the results on the field. My hope is that McDermott can get better as a coach, which includes setting the tone in a better way than he has been.
McDermott has shown the ability to learn from his mistakes before, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for another year. But at some point, we need to see a playoff game against another elite team where our guys look more energized than their guys. Take the last game for example: Our stars on the D-line went up against their stars on the O-line, and theirs won handily. It wasn't a back and forth, where we won some and they won some. It was our guys getting smoked every down, all game. KC had a massive advantage in yards per play, and it showed. Position-by-position, they looked like the better team, and if we won it would've felt like we stole the game to some extent. Some of that is our injuries in the back 7 on D, and missing Gabe. But we were healthy on both lines, and both lines got way outplayed in the 2nd half. When the whole team (except your superhuman QB) is underperforming, you have to start pointing fingers at the coaching staff.
*McD haters: Yes, it's a hit piece. That doesn't mean I doubt his sources, or think that anything in it is factually incorrect or otherwise unfair to McD. I'm going to read the full thing with an open mind. But the lede is written in the style of an editorial, and specifically calls for McD to be fired. That's a hit piece by any reasonable definition of hit piece.
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Michael Lombardi is a dumb guy who learned enough pithy catchphrases to sound wise. Don’t waste your time.
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15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
He helped the Dolphins defense improve from 24th overall, to 22nd overall
I will grant that Fangio dealt with significant injuries to major players on defense towards the end of the season. But for contrast, the Bills dealt with significant injuries at all levels of defense starting Game 4, and the defense dropped from #2 to #4
I remember at the start of this season, I saw a few people saying that Fangio’s success usually shows up in year two, because there are usually growing pains for players as they learn the system.If true, it makes this move seem pretty dumb! But to be fair, the article I read when Fangio was fired seemed to think he really wanted the Philly job and basically asked for his release. If that’s true, tough luck for Miami. I wouldn’t force someone to coach for me if his heart wasn’t in it either, because I don’t think that could possibly lead to good results.
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13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Need a WR in the first two rounds. Ideally jn round one. My preferred plan is:
Rd 1 - most explosive WR available
Rd 2 - best DL (edge or tackle) available
Rd 3 - safety
Rs 4 - either OT or C with development upside
Rd 5 (two picks) - another WR (gadgety fast guy) and a DB
Rd 6 (three picks) - depth on both lines and a developmental Quarterback
Rd 7 - kicker
Sign me up for this, except maybe for the kicker.
EDIT: And I'd make one of the 6th rounders a linebacker.
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2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I concluded the same thing yesterday. I think it's pretty simple. First, the defense let the Bills down on Sunday. Yes, it could have been nothing more than missing Milano and Bernard in the middle, but the others weren't good enough to step up. Hyde apparently is gone, Poyer will be gone soon enough, Jones likely is gone, too. White is a question mark. The defense needs help.
The offense, on the other hand, is pretty well set. I'd love to have a better running back to pair with Cook. People moan about the receivers, but I think the moaning is way out of line with reality. The Bills had the eighth most passing yards in the league, only 30 yards a game less than the top teams. Kincaid now has his rookie season under his belt, and he can be expected to be better next season. Diggs was 13th in yards and 7th in receptions in the league. Shakir is coming on. The offensive line was solid. Bills will need a center, and upgrades anywhere are always nice. However, compared to the defense, the offense is relatively set - it was one of the best offenses in the league.
So, yeah, I'm all in with going heavy on defense in the draft and free agency.
I respectfully disagree. With the game on the line, we couldn't score, despite having the best or 2nd-best QB in the league. I also think that loading up on defense to try to stop the Reid/Mahomes combo is a fool's errand in some ways - when they need a score, they're almost always going to get it.
Yes, our offensive numbers were good, but we shouldn't be 30 yards less than "the top teams", we should BE the top team. I'm sick of seeing dropped passes and receivers not on the same page with our QB. I'm sick of losing to the Chiefs or Bengals because they put a spy on Josh and dare our receivers to win 1 on 1 matchups. Let's go get some more guys who will consistently win those 1 on 1s. That doesn't mean we need superstars everywhere, but our WR room was a major disappointment down the stretch, except for Shakir. Diggs turned into a shell of himself, Davis was a trainwreck then got hurt, Harty made a couple nice plays but was mostly invisible, and Sherfield is a nice 5th WR/special teamer, but shouldn't be starting a playoff game.
With that said, I'm pretty happy with the state of the O-line (but you can always use more depth there - we got really lucky with O-line injuries last year), the TE room if Knox stays, and the RB room. My assumption is that they'll bring in a bigger back to complement Cook, either late in the draft or on the vet minimum.
Defensively, they'll need to devote at least some of the draft there for sure. We're going to lose a lot of bodies on the D-line and one always needs depth in the secondary. I actually think our LBs are great if they get & stay healthy - Bernard & Milano starting, Spector & Williams backing them up. I expect a mid-round pick (4th or later) at LB.
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ST: Agree with others on this thread - it would be a suprise if Smiley is back.
Defense: McDermott needs a D-coordinator to free himself up for decision-making on game day. There's a lot of hands-on coaching work involved in coordinating a full defense, and that's work that someone besides McD should be doing. This seems like an internal promotion to me - agree with others that Babich or Washington are most likely. I don't think the scheme changes, so an outside hire is unlikely. But they'll backfill the position coach that gets promoted.
Offense: The big question is: Brady or outside hire? And if it's Brady, what's his vision for our offense? He did the best he could with Dorsey's offense on the fly, but it was still Dorsey's offense. Likewise, who's out there who wants the job, and what's their vision for the offense? I have to think that it's a job people would want. You get to work with Josh Allen, and there's little downside. If we suck, McDermott will get the blame. If we get over the hump, you'll get the credit and likely land a head coach job somewhere. Depending on the stature of an external hire, this could be an interim OC possibility if McDermott were to be fired at some point.
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Neither. If we win, I’ll be very happy no matter who wins the other game. If we lose, I’ll be very upset no matter who wins the other game.
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5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
That's the frustrating thing about Elam. That series in the Steelers game was a microcosm of his Bills career to date:
1) gets run over on a tackle, I grant you by a larger player but our other smaller players hit and stick it
2) gets a well deserved DPI call
3) makes a pick in the EZ
He was also coming in ice cold (figuratively AND literally) after not having played in like 2 months. He mentioned that in his postgame comments as well. According to one of the beat reporters I was listening to, Elam literally couldn't feel his feet for those first few plays. So I'm willing to give him a pass there.
My hope is that Elam's struggles this year were primarily due to being hurt and trying (unsuccessfully) to play through it. I thought he played really well down the stretch last year, and it's hard for me to fathom why else he wouldn't be able to play at that level.
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That this is the week we actually connect on one of those deep balls where the receiver has a step or more on the trailing DB. We've had about 1 perfect opportunity for those a week for like 2 months now, and to my recollection haven't actually connected on any of them.
(Note: I don't just mean deep shots in general, like Diggs' great contested catch last week. I mean more like Gabe's 99 yard TD against the Steelers last year.)
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1 minute ago, NI Bills Fan said:
Is Taron Johnson being limited (rather than DNP) an indication that he has progressed through at least 1 of the protocol stages?
Also... I understand this was a walkthrough practice today. If it was an actual practice would he have been more likely to be listed as DNP?
1.) Yes, but keep in mind the stages aren't based on time. Somone can stay at a given stage for a long time.
2.) The official story with walkthroughs is that the team estimates what the player would've done in a real practice. In the case of concussions, where there's a formal protocol in place, I think it's pretty clear-cut that LP means he would've practiced in some capacity.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
Unfortunately at times it felt like the only play that worked in Chan's playbook.
Given that we were starting Donald Brown and David Nelson at WR alongside Stevie, it was a miracle any time we completed a downfield pass back then.
I wasn’t a fan of the Gailey hire, but I have to admit he proved his prowess as an OC here. Those teams were severely under-talented but managed to consistently move the ball.
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14 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:
There seems a different opinion of the weather every hour …Perhaps it’s still a little early to be too concerned ?
I don’t understand how grown adults can live for decades without realizing that weather forecasting only starts being reliable about three days out. Come on, people.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
Against that misdirection heavy offense Dorian Williams would have been a major liability. He is a rookie. The game will slow down for him. His head will stop spinning. And when it does he has the physical talent to be a player. But at the moment mentally he isn't at the level.
My guess is that Williams would be next man up (over Spector) against a lot of teams. From what I’ve read, Williams’ biggest flaw right now is biting on misdirection. Doesn’t matter how fast you are if you get fooled on the play. -
7 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I hate that I’m getting involved in this argument, but this doesn’t make any sense.If our only path was Bills/Dolphins, Bills
win and make the playoffs .. given the setting, injuries, meaning etc.. we, at least, have a 50/50 shot at winning that game and making the playoffs, correct?
So, our game alone equates to a 50% chance.
How do we lose probability by having two other chances, in addition to our own game, at getting in?
It’s a joke post. Intentionally bad math to be funny.-
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
You get DPI on deep shots mostly. And we haven't thrown that many that have been super close to connecting. That plays into that number significantly.
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I think we’re also at or near the bottom in illegal contact and defensive holding calls drawn FWIW.I’ve noticed a couple of times in the last few weeks where there was a borderline PI call we didn’t get, usually with Diggs as the target. And whether Diggs or other, our WR never fought through the contact to go towards the ball. I honestly think it would’ve been the difference in at least 2-3 occasions. When there’s so much contact that a ref feels forced to throw a flag, the WR almost always gets the benefit of the doubt. But when the WR still winds up with a semi-fair chance at making the catch, the refs are much more likely to let it go.
It’s kind of like the NBA, where offensive players initiate massive amounts of contact with defenders, because they know they’ll usually get the call if there’s any gray area at all.
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47 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:
You're mostly correct. 85% assumes that every game has a 50/50 shot. Vegas odds alone tells us this isn't the case. Some teams are more likely to win any one game over another. Using current Vegas odds and the 3 games in question (Pitt/Balt, Tenn/Jax, Buf/Miami), the games can be adjusted to show that a result that hurts the Bills has a percent chance of 59.4%, 65.8%, and 45.5% respectively. Multiplying those out to get the odds that exact sequence happening and the Bills missing is 17.8%. That means the chances of Bills making is %100 - 17.8% or 82.2%, lower than your suggested 85%. This also assuming that no ties happen, which is a safe assumption.
Great post. Only thing I disagree with is the bolded. If we’re getting to the specificity of 82.2%, it’s going to be different if ties are considered. Ties have gotten significantly more likely since the NFL went to 10 minute overtimes. It’s usually just 2 or 3 total drives now. All you need sometimes is a missed 45 yard FG.Plus, there are a few scenarios in play where a tie could result in both teams making the playoffs. If one of those comes up, you’ll see both teams play much more conservatively in OT if they get the chance.
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16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Does it have implications for us if one or the other of them win?
Nope. Winner would be ahead of us if we lose and behind us if we win. Loser or tie-er behind us no matter what.
The loser is guaranteed to miss the playoffs, and the winner is guaranteed in (I think). A tie could possibly eliminate both teams, depending on other games. So it’s pretty unlikely either team will play for a tie, but that’s true in 99.9% of all games and ties still happen occasionally.
Personally, I want more ties, not less. I liked the Bills’ OT proposal to eliminate sudden death and play a full quarter. At least for postseason anyway. If the NFL is serious about wanting to limit OT (shortening to 10min, e.g.), they should just make ties the default in the regular season and only add OT for the playoffs.
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36 minutes ago, eball said:
We are to the Fish what the Pats*** were to us during the Brady era...we're definitely in their heads and we have the QB to back it up.
Josh Allen owns the Dolphins. It's crazy how good he's been against them, and how consistently. But that doesn't guarantee anything Sunday night, obviously.
I think if the Bills play a good game by their standards, they'll win. I also think the Dolphins will come to play, and won't make it easy. (Would be great to be wrong about that last part.)
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On 1/4/2024 at 3:00 PM, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I try to keep a "don't root for injuries" mentality, but Waddle and Mostert being out would be huge.
I expect Hill to play (and be effective) but with his injury and personal stuff I can't imagine that we are seeing 100%
I think there's a clear moral difference between rooting for a player to *get* injured, vs. rooting for an already-injured player to sit out. In the latter, you're really just rooting for the player's long term health - you don't want to see him re-injure it because he came back too soon, right?
I usually don't bother rooting for X player to sit out regardless, because I like to root for the best case scenario where they're fully healthy and we beat them anyway. With that said, Waddle has been pretty successful against us, and I won't be sad if he misses the game. Mostert's good too, but I don't see much difference between him and Achane. Whether it's a 1-2 punch or all Achane, either way the D has a tough task ahead of them.
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Bills Offensive Coordinator Interviews have started according to Jeremy Fowler
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Where I think it matters is for big games against elite teams with top-end coaches (like the Chiefs or Bengals). Those teams have a tendency of being able to force teams into doing what they’re worst at. That could mean giving up completions underneath and daring our guys into making one of their guys miss. If we don’t have anyone who can break or evade a tackle, or don’t have a QB who can place the ball accurately enough, that could be a problem. Maybe there’s other ways to beat that kind of defense; I don’t know.