Koufax

Cool. Glad King is noticing. I don't know if I give props to Donahoe too much. Couldn't Peters have been a 7th round pick if he really saw something? Seems more like TD got lucky, and all the Bills fans get to reap the benefits.

Yeah, Dante might not be great, and Ngata might be the better player. But we have a very solid starter who is going to contribute a lot over the next five seasons, and contributed a lot this year. Not a glamorous pick and maybe not the absolute best player we could have gotten, but far from a bust.

Great post as always. Some feedback: 1) Kyle Williams will be limited by his talent and frame, but you know he will be working as hard this off season in the weight room as he does on the field, and I expect him to get better and always be a fan favorite. I still hope we get another tackle along with Larry and McCargo, because if Kyle is #4 in the rotation things are looking good. 3) I think to mention Dante as a bust is a little much. This guy is going to be our starter forever and playing along with rookie Ko, has done a great job in the secondary. I'd love to see the hits like that one more and more, and take over the middle of the field, but he is already a solid pick. 5) Fowler is not big and strong. I like him, and think he gets penciled in as our 2007 starter and we don't aquire a new center, but I hope that Preston or Merz can emerge and hop over him based on merit. But I think a sign of Fowler's physical ability is that we never QB sneak on short yardage, which most other teams do, and we don't pound the ball up the middle on goal line plays. He just can't get that push. 6) I'm mixed on Gandy. Getting two quality guards will be tough, but I'd love to make it happen. Our weaker guard is Preston who is our #1 need, but if we can get a second guard better than Gandy without giving up too much, I will be very happy. 7) TKO has had a rough year. But remember that injuries like his take longer to get to 100% than to get back on the field. His off season workouts were severely affected, and then the hamstring set him back. He is a proud guy and a hell of an athlete. Unless his ankle is permanently hobbling (could be, but I don't think so), he will work his butt off this off season, and hit 2007 in much better condition than he was at any point this year. 8) Pennington has enough youth, size, and talent to go into 2007 as the starter. I'm not sure how great he will be, and he does get a lot of help and we don't run right, but I think on film he has done well blocking the guy in front of him, and hope he can progress and play better with a strong RG next to him. 9) Peters is the story of the 2006 Bills. This is a cornerstone of our future, and I hope he stays healthy and stays a Bill forever.

12 seems a little high for Blalock, my early favorite. We do have to see what we do with Nate and London. OG is our biggest need. We need to somewhere in the draft or free agency get Preston back to a backup competing to become our future center. Other than that we can do what builds winners: take the best football players available (biased to team needs when perceived value is equivalent). Recent #12s Ngata Shawn Merriman Jonathan Vilma (Lee Evans 13th) Jimmy Kennedy (Polamalu 16th) Wendall Bryant (Jeremy Shockey 14th) Damione Lewis (Marcus Stroud 13th, Steve Hutchinson 17th) Shaun Ellis (John Abraham 13th) So tons of talent available at this pick, and if we are smart we can get a serious impact player whatever the position is. It is very important to evaluate talent and not worry about what we "need" or you end up with the reach picks instead of the best value.

Yep, the only thing standing between the Bills and the playoffs was finishing 9-7. A couple more yards for a Lindell kick last week and avoiding the two INTs (and converting the 1st and goal from the 3) today. Oh well, we have 8 months to talk about the draft and free agency and training camp, and get ready for an exciting 2007 in year two of the DJ/ML era.

Play nice boys. Nobody wants to read your combined hissy fit, they want to read about thoughts on Willis. I think Willis showed a lot of guts this year, running hard behind a one way (LEFT) line, and showed some nice flashes. I think that he isn't worth huge money, but since he is still young, and still talented, I'm looking forward to seeing him in a Bills uni with an improved team next year, and wouldn't mind seeing him signed to a reasonably priced extension (since I think he will be better in 2007 than 2006 and cost more if we wait. I would rather keep Willis at this point than spend draft picks to get someone who may or may not be better, but I won't be heart broken if we end up losing him and have to replace the most replaceable position in football.

I'm happy to have 12 or 13 since we don't get the playoffs. But anybody who thinks winning today would have hurt this team has no clue. Beating a top team fighting for a bye on the road to end the season would have been worth more to this team and its quest to get better than the change in the draft position. But getting the #12 or #13 pick instead of the #21 (we would have finished pretty low in the strength of schedule tie breaker at 8-8) is a nice consolation prize after not pulling the upset. And a big win for Seattle making the #1 they give up to New England a lot lower (now if they can get to the Super Bowl they would really screw the Pats). What is the strength of schedule tiebreaker with GB and SF for the 11th-13th picks if we all finish tied? I have to think we come up at the bottom of that and need a GB win to get up to 12th.

We are #10 to #13 depending on the tie breaker and what Green Bay does tonight and if SF wins in OT. #10-13 GB 7-8 (@CHI) Atl 7-9 BUF 7-9 SF 6-9 (@DEN, OT)

Wow, 7 teams locked in at 8-8. Could be up to 10. So either we get a huge momentum win at Baltimore (my first choice) or a big swing in draft position (our consolation prize). Go Bills, Go Falcons, Go Packers! I think only the super bowl teams get bumped to the bottom. Other than that it is based on regular season finish.

Good point. Doesn't affect us directly, but Since they will have a record right in the crowded waters, Go Seahawks!

Go Titans. A Pats loss AND better draft position for the Bills? I'm onboard, start the Vinsanity!

Where do I sign the petition? Steinbach and Blalock are my two early favorites to improve our line (FA and draft respectively), and getting both would be huge, and make give us a very good line even as Fowler is occasionally out muscled and Pennington is a work in progress. But letting London walk means we need LB support, and I hope doesn't happen. Kelsey will end up staying, but I think we would get by without him with Denny/Hargrove. But Steinbach and Nate together (and London maybe) is some big big bucks, and I don't see both happening.

Ichiro gets to wear his first name on his jersey in baseball. What's up with that too? Kinda like Indy deciding to make "Peyton" jerseys since there are two Mannings but only one Payton. My favorite is still when there are two of the same first letter last name and players have to put Mi Smith and Ma Smith on their backs.

Casey said it well. But if Ralph stays under the cap AND makes a profit (I'm not sure on total revenues and other operating expenses, so don't know if this is the case), he is being a jerk. I can understand him being unhappy about the agreements and rules and sharing and percentages and stadium financing, and all that stuff, and hope he fights to improve the Bills chances in all that stuff. But if the choice ends up not making the best team possible under the rules so that a profitable team can be more profitable then I think I would be disappointed in a wealthy man with disappointing priorities. He shouldn't have to operate the team at a "loss" (although I put this in parenthesis because it is an annual loss on paper, but an investment in the value of his franchise and contributes to his equity indirectly), but if he cuts corners to move from a profit of $x to a profit of $y so he can be a 90 year old jazillionaire instead of a gabillionaire the guy doesn't get it. Ralph, you can't take it with you, and I think you would end up happier with a few less bucks left to your heirs and the memory of a Bills championship. That moment of the commissioner presenting you the Vince Lombardi trophy will matter a whole lot more than a few bucks on the balance sheet (and that moment will increase your franchise value more than the few bucks on the balance sheet cost you). So Ralph, please fight for the little guy with the media, the government, and the league and owners, but when it comes time for football decisions, don't put more profits ahead of fielding the best Bills team we are allowed to.

I liked Travis, and I like Willis more. We lost a first round pick on Willis and got a second rounder for Travis, so not a huge downgrade considering Willis's performance advantage the last couple years and his younger age. I'm pleased Travis is doing well, but I don't think this was a no brainer bonehead move by the Bills. Especially if we can keep Willis over the next couple years, because neither of them would have had us in the playoffs through this season, so where it really matters is what they mean to us 2007 and beyond. I'd bet on Willis to have a better 2007, and if we can keep him a better 2008 and 2009. Edit: But more props to Travis, as he has 105 yards in the 3rd quarter against the Pats. Let's hope Willis hits Ray-Ray in the mouf and does even better.

Carolina, St Louis, and Pittsburgh all have second half leads in the four early games we want. Vince Young is down 9 to the Pats, but that's well within his "I'm Superman" range . (Again, I definitely want the Bills to beat the Ravens, so don't misunderstand this post. It's just that I don't mind of Tennessee moves to 9-7 for example, since there is no trophy for 14th place, and these unrelated outcomes could have a pretty big swing in our draft position) Update, Carolina and STL are up big. Vince Young just moved to within six points, but Carson Palmer just showed again that he has a better arm than I do (why does he have to rub it in EVERY WEEK) and PIT is down 2 now.

So here is your draft pick rooting schedule (we are still rooting for the Bills to win, don't worry). Early Games: TEN over NE CAR over NO STL over MIN (still up in the air, but I think MIN will pick ahead of us even with a win) PIT over CIN (although this one depends, that is the outcome that could have us pick against both) Late Games: ATL over PHI SF over DEN MIA over IND (although I'm not actually rooting for MIA and hope they finish behind us) Night Game: GB over CHI But most importantly Bills over BAL because it would be a huge morale booster and that's worth more than draft position always!

I think he has a great head, great technique, but just isn't big enough or enough of an athlete. I think that shows on the complete lack of QB sneaks on 3rd and short 4th and short, where other teams pull these off regularly with ease. So I hope Preston or Merz emerges and jumps him on the depth chart, but I like him enough to not even think about using up draft picks or free agent dollars this year. Gandy is a maybe with me, depending on what is available after we upgrade RG. He's been alright but isn't our LG of the future. If he can hold down the fort in 2007 while we upgrade other positions that would be cool.

I would like to add a bigger tackle to the rotation in place of Anderson, as long as he is still agile. Nobody said they have to be small (so funny to use the word "small" to talk about a 300 pound human being), but they have to be quick to be able to penetrate and not just take up space. So we can't put Ted Washington in there without compromising how the D works, but we can certainly get an even larger human being if he is agile (the way a lot of people refer to Ngata as quick for his size, for example). I think the scheme works but the personnel matters a lot. Larry, Kyle, and Tim just didn't stack up well enough especially considering the LB turnover behind them. Add in McCargo, a year of experience for Kyle, and an upgrade over Tim, and I think things work out, but if that upgrade is 315 instead of 298 I'll be happy with that too.

I think he gets a 2007 second try as we upgrade the guards. I don't love him like I love Peters, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed. He seems effective on straight on pass blocking, but his run hasn't looked great (affected by Preston next to him instead of a road grater guard), and he often accomplishes little if there isn't a single defender right at him. He has several times run into JP while looking for something to do (including causing that INT that Royal forced a fumble on a while back), and if you look at the 4th down INT last week to end the game, while Peters and Thomas manage multiple blocks, he really just runs around looking like he is three steps behind the play. Now the negatives I'm pointing out are nitpicking on a big strong rookie, and are only because I've been watching him closely every play through the last month or so, trying to get an idea if he can be our RT of the future. I think the jury is still out, but I'm optimistic and willing to give him 2007 without worry, especially if he has a better RG helping him out.

My thoughts exactly. Too soon to have a real idea, but he is my #1 pick in my make believe world.

10 excellent points. He needs to do it all consistently, but this guy has all the ability, and has proven the right attitude and work ethic. Michael Vick would have had a better first eight games than JP this year behind our line when it was struggling. But I am a big JP fan, and am very excited to watch him develop over the next couple years and become a star who leads us to the playoffs over and over again, and hopefully to a Super Bowl victory.

We should be aggressive with him starting on Monday, and try to make the best fair offer we can make. If he wants to be #1 we can't compete with Snyder's stupid spending, so we have to deal with the reality that he might not be a value to our team at the price he might command. But I do everything I can to try to sign him at a good price (even if it is a huge number) because I think he has some excellent value to our team. Remember, it only takes one team overspending to make a price unreasonable, and smart teams wave goodbye to players if they cost more than their value. Right now Nate's value is how much better he is than the weaker of Ashton/Terrance. That is certainly a considerable value, but it sure ain't worth A-Rod money. There are going to be different economics this off season than we have expected, and last year's deals will seem much much better. So we can't expect to judge this market based on past deals. We just need Marv and DJ to stay smart and focused, and find the best values that the market presents itself. These aren't always the best players or the players we would want all things being equal, because we are affected by how other teams value or misvalue players. It seems possible that the league might overvalue Nate and make him too expensive for us, and we have to move on. The two comparisons are the Patriots and the Oakland A's in baseball. Make smart evaluations, and don't spend more than a player's value no matter how much you feel the "we HAVE to keep him" stuff. With whatever budget Ralph allows us, figure out the way to get the best football team put together, and sometimes that involves letting the best football player go when value isn't there.

I prefer a little bit of national media hush. We are just an 8-8 (or 7-9) team....nothing to see here folks...don't pick us as your team on the rise next year...just go about your business and we'll see you in orchard park in December and January... Although the one thing I hope we get some media attention for is so we have more nationally televised games.

We don't have to play with Have-Tos. That's the fun part of this draft. We need go get at least one guard (maybe two), possibly a tackle, at least one DT, and probably a corner, and probably a Fullback, and we'd like a TE, a possession WR, and some LB help. But we don't have to have it scripted, and we can do the best thing with all of our picks and all of our free agent dollars. Get the best players available with the picks and get the best values available with the signings. I would personally love if the best player available at our #1 pick was an OG like Blalock, but when you make your wish list too early and get too caught up with it, you end up picking and signing badly. Marv is too smart for that, and I'm ready for an offseason where we sometimes scratch our heads, but where when we look at it six months later we are pretty happy.