The Big Cat

i think the only place we diverged we just happened to do so in a big way: was marrone holding the team back or did he deserve some credit for the first winning season in a decade. the truth undoubtedly lies somewhere in between, 'another?' i'm not sure i follow your point. do you mean to suggest that buddy nix habitually wasted draft picks, particularly first rounders? i think the evidence is more than clear at this point that from 2011-13, when nix had HIS guys in place, the bills were one of the better drafting teams in the NFL.

Here's the side-by-side. I don't think Bills fans will be/should be too excited about some of Shady's numbers. He's just as bust as Spiller, but far less boom, which speaks to consistency, at the very least: https://goo.gl/oXd76D

Ask and ye shall receive: https://goo.gl/oOFA2o

Yeah but still.

one QUARTER of his 2013 carries for zero or negative yards...and those were split 40/60 in FAVOR of zero yard rushes... yeah, but he has a 5.0 career ypc.

that jumped out at me too! i actually expected it to be the opposite with more homeruns set up in Chan's offense, my recollection being his long runs were much longer then, mostly because they were systematically queued up. i think, rather, what we're meant to discern from these numbers is that his bad runs went WAY up under marrone. two seasons ago i did a map of spiller's runs which showed, as we expected, that the bulk of his runs came at the extremes. i think in 2013 and 2014, he had a tremendous number of really bad carries which pushed the percentage of his overall production further and further to the top. make sense? An easy way to determine this would be to look at the percentage of his zero to negative yard runs from 2011 through 2014 give me 10 minutes. As expected: https://goo.gl/vPhpg4(warning, some of these numbers are ASTONISHING)

24 ppg would have made them the 12th highest scoring team in the league last year. With the fire power we have on offense defense, we won't need that level of production.

My "bold" prediction was that Robey would have 10+ sacks this year. Believe me, I'm with you. And there's no question Spiller will be used differently, I think the split in fans here is whether or not CJ's up to the task. I'm not certain he is, but it wouldn't surprise me. Let's put it this way, if he's still available in the 3rd round, I'll probably draft him in fantasy.

not for a second do i deny that possibility. but at this point, that's all it is.

He might be a better runner, but not by much. But there is virtually zero evidence that he's a better receiver, and THAT'S what Sproles' money maker. So, essentially we're comparing apples and oranges with the two. Well, isn't that what we're debating here?

In Sproles' three years with NO (2011-2013) he had 86, 75, 71 receptions. On the Bills, in those same years, that would have made him the first, second and first leading receiver respectively, falling behind Stevie in 2012 by only four receptions.

But they're not similar players. Sproles does the VAST majority of his damage on swing passes and screens. May be Spiller hasn't been in an offense that features him this way (he will be this year), but the fact is, the pass-catching production between the two is not even close.

Spiller's career carry to reception ratio: 4.22/1 Sproles': 1.18:1 Spiller's career yds/rec: 7.6 Sproles': 9.0

I really resent the comparisons to Sproles. Sproles is exceptionally good at letting blocks develop then exploding through the crease: the precise mechanic in CJ's game that's holding back, tremendously.

2010: 20.4% 2011: 22.2% 2012: 28.1% 2013: 37.5% (all based on 3.8% of carries, rounded up) Also, 78 isn't that abnormal: 2010: 74 2011: 107 2012: 207 2013: 202

Which back in the league would you say he's most comparable to? Let's start there.

Now Murray. 392 touches, 5% rounded up to 20 carries for 510 yards or 27.9% of his 1827 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/zolGcl Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/cIKrfR Now Bell (these take like five minutes): 290 carries, 5% rounded up to 15 carries for 411 yards or 30.1% of his 1361 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/cwcJrV Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/a2zk8H I'm being generous rounding these numbers up, and they're still much, much different than CJ's. Actually, let's back up. We were generically dealing with 5%, when truthfully, 40% of CJ's yards can on only 3.8% of his carries. So let's apply that number, shall we? Shady: 24.6% Murray: 22.8% Bell: 25.4%

Okay. Let's do Shady. 318 carries, top 5% would be his 15.9 best runs, so we'll round up to 16. Those carries totaled 395 yards or 29.94% of his 1319 total yards. Stats here: http://goo.gl/kOlAIP Stats dropped into a spread sheet here: https://goo.gl/7aJmSJ

I got away from the Bills from about 96 to 2004, but that's when my re-awakening began (helluva time, right?) But for somebody who's doubled down on his fandom from '04 until now, I think Jackson and Williams will forever be my two favorite Bills.

Prove. There's that word again. As if.

Ha, yes, I'm well aware of your opinion on this issue. Also Philly. Sproles is a much better player than CJ. Biscuit can point to all the stats he wants, but I've watched the two guys play. It's not close.

Safe bet: Spiller will make a couple of big plays for the Saints this year. Less safe bet: Spiller will be consistently productive throughout the year.

WATKINS HAD SHOULDER SURGERY!? #youhadonejob

Title of the thread was one bold player prediction. Not 13.