2 dice? 11
But nobody is syaing, I am not saying & have never said that they are not educated guesses.....in fact, that's exactly what I call them.
Again I say that you don't seem to understand why people call it a crap shoot.
To quibble over the fact that dice are fixed in their determination while players are.....for the use of a better word, random in their determination....is irrelevant.
What is relevant is that to all the people who see a top prospect & say "He is a sure thing", these people should understand that there is no sure thing.....that through all of the random elements(lots of them), that player may end up on the scrap heap after 1 year.....they may become a journeyman type player.....they may become a solid starter....an occasional probowler....an all-pro.....or a HOFer...............and in fact, even with the "sure thing" player, they are more likely to never become even a solid starter.
The randomness of the end result is like rolling 2 dice(though obviously not exactly the same). You roll your dice.....and hope the number that comes up is a good one.
I'm not sure that anybody in this thread even implied that draft evaluation is meaningless.....I'll just check....nope, can't find any.
What people were saying was that after all of the meaningful evaluation which regularly & correctly ascertains nearly all of the best prospects, it becomes a random proposition as to whether those prospects "hit" or "miss" (your 2nd sentence).