Pyrite Gal

Eddie Robinson was not coming off a year where he tied for the team lead both in IBTs and funbles recovered. Eddie Robinson was not in a situation where he was a forner pro bowler as a cover guy who had correctly moved himself to a position with less need for speed and who had 2 rookie safety players and a rookies CB on the team who could benefit from an older hand. Eddie Robinson was also not so respected by his peers that they voted him the NFLPA Prez and were the team to cut him with any sense that he had something to give to this team because of his on-field production in turnovers the year before and because the defensive scheme switch is making his role fit his play style better the team MIGHT be judged willing to hurt their football play to prove some point of doctrine. They both are the same as they both are well inside the backsides of their careers, but to ignore the other realities of the situation would simply be to ignore realities regarding football.

I think there is a "situation" here for fans who see the contracts as some statement analagous to the actual performance of a particular player, By this logic it is legitimate to view this as an at best irrational situation where a rookie is guaranteed large chunks of money when he has not produced on iota as an NFL player. This logic legitimately questions the fact that MW got a huge payment for being a bust and why RJ was given a $8 million when he is injury prone. However, the partnership between team owners and the NFLPA does not operate with compensation for players being based only (or in rookie cases at all) on a player;s play.. Instead the partnership is interested instead in producing a product which it can sell to the TV networks and ticket buyers which delivers big bucks to team owners and gives the workers union a big enough slice of the revenue to ensure that a saleable product will be produced. One might hold the view that compensation should be pretty much equivalent to production and that is true in a more perfect world but the last view is simply reality. The huge and slotted rookie contracts exist as a mechanism for laying a baseline for payment of 59.5% of the total revenues of the league to the players. By agreeing to these levels which are currently set by % of the salary cap allocated to rookie salaries by the partnership between the NFLPA and the NFL a market has been created to set this base among the players drafted. By allocating this enormous payment to unproven players a chunk of cash is wasted on players whose production does not remotely merit this payment. However, the partnership realizes that these often sillty payments provide a base where good players set the market by demanding and getting raises above this base and even pedestrian players can point to the fact that their team or the league has compensated players who produce far less than they do more handsomely than their salaries. The huge salaries for unproven rookies also serves to stop college players from organizing effectively against the restraint of trade which the NFL and NFLPA excert on Americans below the age of the college graduation. In MLB, the NBA, NHL and virtually all other sports people sign contracts at ages like 14 and 16 year olds because the market will compensate them for their talent. In the NFL even adults who are 19, 18 up until an age when their college class (if they were in college) would have graduated are not allowed to sell their services in the NFL. In cases like that of Maurice Clarett the courts have upheld this Un-American restraint of trade for a number of reasons such as the lotto like win that performing college players can get without any professional production. Overall, the system simply works to produce a product many people enjoy and which both owners and the extremely well compensated players union agree to this restraint. Who are the courts to uphold individual rights when many of these individuals are kids, they can at least pretend to get a college education, and forces opposing this restraint are disorganized folks with idiots for test cases. For those who determine the rules and a society which loves to be entertained there simply is no situation here.

I have several reactions to it: 1. It gives some evidence that safeties are being more heavily valued in the NFL if Hope is attracting some major scratch. Also, I think this is another indicator of how salaries are going to go up across the board as the salary cap goes up and the distribution of dollars to the players is gonna go up under the CBA, In this light ecalating payments to the rookie safeties is consistent with reality. 2. On the specific point of we could have got a vet starter instead of a highly regarded rookie potential starter for less than Whitner, this is certainly possible but the point is specific enough that the answer should be found in looking at specific players who folks think should have been bought instead of Whitner. It actually likely would not have been Hope as he plays FS rather than SS so we would have needed to shift him if we got him. This is not impossible as though we do not know for sure until we see the Tampa 2 we use, it would seen the two safety positions should be relatively the same in use. The question is actually how one thinks that Hope would do shifting from the Pitts LeBeau run zone blitz to the Fewell Tampa 2. He was the second best safety on the Pitts squad last year with Polamolu. His game was actually adjusting his play to fill the gaps for Polamalu who ranged all over the place. The Bills actually appear to be looking for their version of a Polamalu rather than their version of a Chris Hope so I doubt this player fits the needs or our design. Here is likely a question of how good the Bills braintrust thinks Whitner will be. If he actually can become our equivalent of Polamalu I think he will be worth the cost. However, on the face of it I think the money Hope commanded is an indicator more of how valuable we expect Whtiner to be and actually justifies paying a big buck for him rather than saying we paid too much. If he is another Polamalu or Williams he is worth it, if he is another Coy Wire he is not. The other olayer that has been sited as a specific alternative to Whitner would have been to keep Milloy. This would be the comparison to make. Milloy was due a little under $4 million this year in cap hit, The Wgutber deal as describe din Bills Daily is huge with a signing bonus which alone would be $2,6 million, I do not know how the remaining huge base salary amount will be spread out, but on the face of it, i think that Whitner will be a better deal for an SS (assuming DW starts) than Milloy as I doubt his base salary will make his 2006 cap hiy higher than Milloy's hit. On top of this, I think Milloy is so well into the backside of his career and is far more of a hitter approrpriate to a zone blitz than a cover guy for the Tampa 2 that I have few doubts that DW is not only gonna be a cheaper starting SS than Milloy but a better one as well. 3. The third observation i would make is that the DW drafting makes far more sense than any other alternative move given what I think the Bills goals are. Again, I understand the arguments of others that it is a better strategy to build in the trenches and the strategy of using the draft to rebuild the OL over the 2 or so drafts this would take given the failure of TD draftees Jennings and MW to be the answer for us. However, i think the team goals are to win as much as we can now and the draft team building strategy even if one feels this is the best way to buiild a team is simply not workable on the Golden Boy business time schedule. Like it or not, i think the team had to create a hole at safety brcause Milloy simply was not a keeper at his cost. In fact many vocal advocates wanted to create two holes there by also ditching Vincent. Once you do this, the qustion is how do you replace Milloy. Choosing Whitner to do this (or Huff) seems to me to be a better strategy than trying to acquire Hope, who depending on how his contract is allocated may be more expensive a cap hit than Whitner. The Bills were forced to draft Whitner at 8 as soon as Oak took Hiff at 7 because trading down simply offered to big a risk that Det. might take Whitner at 9 or that the Fins might jump above them to take Whitner if Det took Sims anyway or might have jumped above us and left us with Bullock who is doubtful to start immediately at SS. I have yet to here anyone suggest an alternate strategy for taking Whitner at 8 that makes sense if your goal is that I think the Golden Boys want to win now if they can and put butts in the seats now on that possibility. If they went into the season with Bowen at SS, I think the chances of them winning now though small now are really non-existent with a back-up Bowen or later round choice at SS and without that possibility it is really difficult to put butts in the seats selling even an illusion.

I find the views Max, Bado, you and others have about the cap to be true as far as they go but they seem to be a view which is simplistic in terms of a what I think is a more accurate consideration of the cap. Clealry the asessed worth of a player (assessment ending up as an educated guesstimate at best how well a player perfoms) is the basis for where he is chosen in the draft and thus defines the contract which goes with this pick. However, there are a large number of factors which ultimately determine what that contract recieved by the player will be which really are quite different from how well a player perfoems (and even how the market guesses he will perform). I think that these factors render the statement that some amount is too much to pay for a player at a particular position to be not a correct one (particularly at this time where the cap amount has increased a lot with the new CBA being agreed to), The fact is that we are about to see a significant general increase in the salaries for all positions as the larger pool of money has to be distributed to the players under the CBA. A team managing its cap budget needs to look at the length of all of its contracts, look at the positions they have under contract and expect to fill, and then estimate how much they will need spend and win to set the salary levels that they can afford to pay. Thus, if a team anticipates that it already has made contract allocations over the next several years to positions which will require the most dollars, they actually will have a larger amount available to pay players at other positions which traditionally have not gotten these salaries. They (and the players) may also make an estimation that the salary amount for a particular position is going to go up as the salaries of all positions will go up and thus they are willing to pay or insist that they be paid based on where the salaries are likely to be at the end term of the contract rather than what was traditionally paid to that player. To some extent if safeties are always paid less than QBs then even if all salaries are going up safeties will still be paid less than QBs, thus picking a safety in a draft position slotted for a higher contract would be out of whack. However, even this logic appears to be old thinking based on the positions where safeties are being drafted in this draft or over the last few years. Its simply hard to credibly argue the Bills drafted a safety way tog high when they picked the second safety taken in this draft. Perhaps you then want to argue that the first safety taken Huff was a special case and that drafting a safety in the 1st round is a grand departure from the norm. However: A. The 3rd safety drafted was taken a mere 8 picks later when the Fins took Allen, so anyone who says safetues should be taken in later rounds is calling w other teams paid to do this stupid. Maybe but it gets a bit harder to maintain. B. Roy Williams a safety was taken at about this level and most folks are impressed enough with this play that they feel this pick was justified so there is recent evidence that a safety taken this soon can pay benefits. One can argue that Whitner is gonna be bad player but this is different argument than arguing that you should take any safety later. C. The NFL like it or not is a lemming like league which imitates what i working for others, The role played by Williams and high profitle players like Troy Polalamu certainly does not mean Whitner, Huff or Allen will play any better, but it certainly means that this position is likely to be drafted higher and thus slotted to higher contracts. The point you are making seems to act as if a players salary and his level of play are the same. They are not in this imperfect but real world. It seems contradictory for you to argue on one hand the Bills violated a market rule that safeties should be picked later when actually their pick of the 2nd of 3 safeties picked in the 1st round places them firmly in the middle of following the market. D. The Bills themselves are actually moving to a Cover 2 from a zone blitz and this move places a higher premium on getting a safety capable of playing the centerfielder pass coverage role. A player of Whitner's skills fits this model perfectly , In addition, looking at the Bills cap situation, two of their higher priced players they are going to possibly or likely replace soon are Vincent and Clements. If they let these two walk after this year, one would see a DB cap expenditure for Mcgee, Yobouty, Simpson, and Whitner with Greer, Baker and King probably dueling to play. I think the Bills DB cap and player situation looks pretty reasonable with this crew. One can argue what one wants about the quality of the players and reality will tell us what is right. However, the notion that a safety pick was too high at #8 simply sems like old thinking which is not substantiated by recent events.

I liked this post as it showed how difficult it is to be a leader in a society likes ours which is committed to individualism and pluralism. I think it shows that it is quite difficult to be an effective leader of a football team which is working toward a goal realized or not realized each year and then the whole thing is subject to a redo with a somwhat shuffled deck of participants the next year, In the NFL it is is made easier because at least there is an authority controlling entity of the ownership of each team. It still is a difficult thing to do successfully or well. In the broader culture, our leaders are working in a system without any real controlling authority, rather than a redo, history simply marches on each year. Good leadership in pro football means that for even the brief period of one year, the leader gets the team pulling together toward the shared goal on an SC win. I think TD failed because ultimately his goal was about him and not about the team as best as I can tell. To some degree, I think this was him conciously or unconciously vowing never again to be fired by an HC he hired. I think he passed on going after two HCs, Fox and Lewis who proved to be much more successful in getting positive results for their teams and simply getting to the playoffs than TD's teams achieved under GW. TD akways seemed to be happy if GW failed as long as TD did not bear the blame and as long as he could defend himself if GW happened to go after him like Cowher did. Ultimately despite TD proving to be very successful by most measures of running the Bills as a business operation, it was his lack of commitment to doing what was necessary to win right here and right now which cost him his job. Perhaps TD may want to consider going into politics next. Though it is much more difficult to be a successful leader of a country rather than an NFL team, we see, to have set the standard of successful leadership as being OK to piss off 45% or so folks in your country as long as you get 50% + 1 of the electorate, amd over 60% of folks for your major policy initiative. I doubt TD could be a success at being a leader at either activity but at least in national politics you can still "win" even if your leadership skills drive a huge wedge in your team's support.

No, I am simply saying that they should either entertain the fans (which they have chosen and agreed to be compensated incredibly well to do) by EITHER: 1. Mouthing the party line and typical cliches even if they do not believe them which entertain the fans, OR 2, Hold true to themselves but present a truer image of themselves in manner which meets the time allocation available from the fans who ultimately the bills. Generally, I think one finds that the American market is educated enough and into pluralism enough that they are happy to find and root for a different drummer if that different drummer takes the time and is good enough at distilling a depiction of their different way of looking at the world into understandable presentations which are short enough for fans to digest given the requirements of dqualling children, demanding spouses, punching the clock of whateve demands time that they would love to spend but cannot on the diversion of being entertained by the NFL. If JP chooses approach two and wants to project a more real sense of himself to the the fans whom he has agrred to be compensated handsomely by through their love and largess to the Bills, then he has taken on an obligation to present the complex different version of himself in a efficient manner. He should either simply spout the usual cliches which entertain the fans he has agreed to be paid by, OR he should present this different and complex picture in a method which fits the time the fans who pay the bills can devote to this task. To try this an fail is too bad, but acceptable to mamy forgiving Americans. To not even try to present this complex story eficiently but to still agree to accept enormous compensation is reasonably judged as arrogant.

The trouble with being different is that listeners have a much harder characterizing you if you go off the the isotypical athlete script. If one hopes to be understood, then one has to either provide more information than the average person is willing to devote the time toward deciding which athlete to root for, or you have to be really focused on sending out the messages that let listeners know which script summarizes your personality. In other words it really takes a lot of work to be both different and understood. I think JP comes or came off as arrogant to some folks because they do not percieve him being willing to send out the signals so that can people can choose how to characterize him. Its his right to do what he wants, but ine cannot demand that you want the mass market to like you unless you are willing to do a lot of work to help the mass market understand you with the limited amount of time they can give to understanding an athlete and choosing a hero from the is form of entertainment. Many folks (correctly in my judgement) feel it is arrogant to want/demand to be understood/liked if you are going to be different when you are already incredibly compensated for playing a boys game.. I think it is great when someone goes off script in a positive way, but the level of conmpensation they recieve from their decision to entertain the masses creates a duty on their part to communicate with the masses on the masses time schedule. If they object to this, then they should not get involved in a deal where they are paid handsomely to entertain the masses.

Are you kidding. Kingsbury is getting more than a shot at: 1. Hanging around as a teammate of TKO and the boys and getting the chance to be a teammate with them, eat with them and play Madden 2006 with them. 2. Hr gets whatever paycheck he gets for playing a boys game and though the paycheck is small by NFL standards its huge by normal folks standards. 3. He is being required to throw passes with NFL speed and pace and some semblance of accuracy and along the lines of the playbook which a normal person cannot do. Though his skills are at grear college level they are far below pro level but he is being rewarded for those skills. 4. Even the per diem training camp guys get is more than the normal person gets and he still gets all the training meals he wants in addition to the per diem. 5. He does not have to pay for a drink or a meal anyway because folks in the St. John's Fisher area would love to be able to tell their friends for a few weeks and years how they took an NFL camp player out for a drink or a meal. Whether they talk to him again or not they will be posting on TSW their own opinions with talk for years about their connections to anonymous folks who are connected with the team. 6. They get something to put on their resume that they were on an NFL camp roster when they apply for coaching jobs at the college or high school level. 7. They build contacts for entree into the European football leagues where teams are allowed a limited number of American players and the ones they choose not only get paid tons, but are treated like kings there. A solid Division II player can get one of these rides. A friend (see the non name dropping here) who played LB at Cortland State says not only did he not have to pay for drinks and meals for two years he played in Europe but they would fly over girlfriends and buddies to keep the American player happy during the season. 8. He gets all the babes he can eat while cruising the bars as a former NFL player. Kingsbury has not only earned a chance but is already garnering great benefits from being a ball thrower at camp. The pipedream he will play does come true for the occaisonal Kurt Warner (who apparently was a Wal-Mart stockboy not long before he got his sh--) but it is so rare as to not be a real hope for a fan. As far as concern, I hope no one feels sorry for folks like Kingsbury because his skills have gotten him a great chance and ride.

Fidurehead smigurehead to use a technical term. My sense is that all of these jobs are critical to dealing with fundanmental failings of the Bills which contributed greatly to our failure to make the playoffs since 2000. Specifically: - interface with Ralph- The buck stop with the owner and I think that one of the basic failings of this team is Ralph simply making decisions or not managing relationships with his employees well which forced him into bad decisions. Examples of this range from him getting fooled by Butler and not reading how bad the situation was which rushed him into hiring a GM as quickly as he could (which led to the decision to hire TD which most folks think was a bad judgment) or him doing what I semantically term meddling with the professionals (though as owner he has the right to make whatever decisions he wants even if they are bad) like his handling and public pronouncements on the QB situation going back to his missassessment of how long Jimbo would play the game leading to his handshake deal. If Marv can interface with Ralph and keep him happy while backing him off of making bad decisions it will help the Bills achieve the playoffs. - improve over-all morale (players & office) that was damaged by TD- Fish rots from the head own and clearly this team had horrendous relationships between folks at the upper levels of the organization. These bad relationships had the team in disarray and was a sign of poor leadership. It was so bad Ralph had to fire TD. I don't see how you would call this relationship good with the firing or claim that this bad relationship had not effect. TD and MM were apparently locked in a dispute over the QB situation with the boss directing one thing and the HC trying to do something different. Most Bills players are trying to put the past in the past but comments are leaking out about how bad this situation was an its effects on getting Ws. My personal sense is that this season was over after the second game when the D in particular could not even pretend that the Bills were putting their best (even though if the best we could do was playing Bledsoe at QB was inadequate) foot forward in trying to win in 2005. TD had decided that 2005 was going to be devoted to being a training season for JP rather than a winning season for the Bills as a top goal and I think the D lost its edge and gave up doing that extra little bit that makes a winner at that point. Some semblance of morale and this team being a TEAM strikes me as central to getting Ws in 2006. Some may prefer that the Bills build toward 2007 )or more likely 2008) by focusing on building a strong base by taking actions like focusing our draft on the OL. I do not think this is where the Golden Boys are because who knows how long life is and because they run a business that must put butts in the seats now. - instill the sense of what it takes to win in this league.- Clearly this team has forgotten what it feels like to be a Bills team in the playoffs. In fact outside of folks like Chuck Lester, are there even many coaches much less players who were here even in the last playoff appearance not to mention the glory days of the early 90s. Marv embodies a real connection to that feeling and if he can articulate that feeling so the young players lust after that glory it would be great. Call it being a figurehead if you want, but it is difficult for me to imagine 3 areas which the Bills must improve and set right their activities of the details of actions in personnel assessment or contract negotiation will merely be dust in the wind. You can argue and you may have a good case to make that Modrak is a stinky evaluator, Guy is a stinky manager of scouts, or that Overdorf is a lousy negotiatior (the Whitner events give credence to that claim) but you and others are wrong if you judge these three tasks which are "the only things Marv will do" as being trivial. Actually, I think that Modrak and Guys works attracting folks like TKO or identifying Fletcher and even turning PP into WM and then getting PP back are not bad work. Overdorf in aggreeing to contracts which got TKO to a small market and saw Sam Adams and a few others sign for less than the market rate is in the middle of the NFL pack at worse and actually pretty good. The problem has not generally been with tools with the Bills but with the builder in terms of Ralph's and TD decision making. If Marv somehow produces improvements in the three area's Rico identifies and you agree with he deserves to enter the HOF a second time.

Mike just a note to say thanks again.

K F&B I usually find your take on things pretty on target, but I do disagree on this point. If I think it is a good thing to do for the team, I certainly want the GM, HC or whoever to lie about facts involving the team. This means even lying to me and the fans about obvious issues like our gameplan and approach to specific games or situations because I would rather I be fooled or even bamboozled rather than give any information which might help other teams. This issue is a little different because it is not opponent or even game specific, but my sense is that Marv is communicating to those who can understand it and setting up to rake an approach that all this contract stuff though obviously our total focus regarding Whitner prior to signing is now simply water under the bridge and the details of the contract dispute are to be forgotten because now Whitner is a Bill and that is that. I have no problem with him obviously lying flat out about this because the Bills do not release contract details anyway and I am happy to wait until Clumping Platelets provides us with ball park details. For now I am happy to have marv lie about this and move beyond it and concentrate on football, we'll get the details and stew over the salary cap implications soon enough.

Holcomb shows no sign of being able to beat opposing Ds by consistently throwing long passes with accuracy. i do not think he has the arm to do this consistently at all. However, KH dpes have a history of being episodically very productive as a QB. Just as I do not know his 40 time I do not know how many yards KH can actually throw the ball. However, though KH does not have the rep of being a Bledsoe like slinger, he also does not carry the rep nor have I seen signs of him throwing Billy Kilmer like wounded ducks or even looking as weak a thrower as Flutie looked at the end of a season. What KH needs to do in the O we seem to be developing is offer the threat that 2 or 3 times a game he will be able to muster up a deep pass to a speedy receiver. If this threat is there, then opposing Ds wiil crowd the line at their own risk, because this might be the one play where Evans, Price, or Parrish uses their speed to go on a fly pAtterns and the D crowding the line gives up 7 they do not want to give up in the NFL. There are several other things the Bills appear to be doing which may help a rag-armed QB- 1. McGahee is running semi-deep pass patterns in practice and the word he wil be used more as a receiver this year. If WM develops his ability to operate as a successful check down receiver, particularly if he can generate RAC yardage then either shooting the gap to blitz or crowding the line becomes problematic. In addition, I think the Bills need to go back to what TC went away from which is sending WM wide to use the stiff arm. If the tackles do good seal blocks to cut off inside pursuit and receivers run pattens to clear out the outside, the WM ends up isolated with a DB he migh kill with the stiff arm. Rather than the LB crowding the line he will need to stay back so he does not get sealed and can take an angle on WM. 2. Speed kills. Speedy WRs will demand a cushion and in 3 WR sets with Parrish and potentially 4 WR sets with Reed the only real D option will be to zone up. Again croding the line is not an option. 3. My guess is that the QB will salivate in cases where the line is crowded and it means that one of the WRs is single covered. in this situation with safeties crowding the line there is no one back in a cover 2 to catch a wounded duck pass. In this case, the QB will need to make the read and call for the single covered WR to fly, The QB takes three step drop and immediately throws the ball up and the reciever's job is to run underneath it. I think the zone blitz where the QB does not know for sure who is dropping back and who is coming is a much bigger problem than a D which crowds the line and all of the defenders are holding their ground or blitzing. Crowding the line woul seem to be one of the easier Ds to beat even if Holcomb was a constant rag arm. I do not think he has a Bledsoe arm, but the good news is he does not appear to have a Bledsoe brain either.

But there is a big difference between making an educate guess (which all do though often we tend to make uneducated guesses because none of us has perfect knowledge) and drawing a bunch of conclusions based upon these guesses. The fault I find with PFW and many other pundits is that they offer up predicition which they oftern treat as drop-dead certainties or as obvious truths when like you and me they really are simply guess and often very uneducated guesses. NFL games are interesting to me because it is really difficult to figure out what is going to happen next. The game is kept close enough by rule changes and application to make it unpredictably interesting. On top of all that the occurence of injury and the random stupidity of the refs adds an interesting degree of uncertainty. The most interesting thing about the QB debate os that I think even Holcomb and JP would agree that JP is the far better athlete, can throw the ball farter and generally with more accuracy. He has an ability to scramble and improvise as he runs for his life that KH cannot match. However, though JP is better than KH in most regards which can be measured, unless JP has really learned enough form his brief play and study to slow the game down, then KH will be a more productive QB for the Bills. Fairchild seems to have done a good job with planning to put to use skills and information he likely has gained working for Martz and as Bills RB coach. We have acquired a number of tools with clear limitations but also clear strengths (a vet OL likely to break down over time with injuries, speedy WRs who are unproven or raise questions about them in the roles they need to fill for us, an RB with great talents but a lot of things he needs to do in terms of not having a second half like last year) that could conceivably make for a tremendous O. Most important for this discussion, if a lot of things work right with the apparent paln, then the QB need not be great (by far JP is most likely of these three to be great) but do some good reads and be adequate to make this O productive. Ironically, the vet KH is most likely to meet this test.

I am definitely in the camp that sees JP as the likely starter. While it is clear that what Marv, Jauron and most important what Ralph aspires to is to win now while the Golden Boys are definitely alive, I think that it would be a mistale to conclude that this is the only factor which comes into this decision. Ralph has a clear history from what I choose to deem his meddling with the professional (these are may semantics since as the owner he is entitled to meddle) with the QB position (his endorsement of RJ as the starter after his team ripped apart an Indy team that was already headed for the bus and his signoff on the TD decision to make less than are best effort at winning by plaing JP rather than Bledsoe) so salary matters and will be a factor in the final judgment. However, I think winning now id the priority. That beind said, if the battle is close and there is no significant greater chance of getting Ws with KH at the helm (either because JP clearly sucks or because Holcomb is clearly good in pre-season games, I think the default will be JP starts. However I am more convinced looking at our player acquisition (players with limitations but specific great talents), looking at what we are practicing, and listening to the limited pronouncemnts of the higher ups that we are going to be running an O that plays towards KH's strenghts and which JP will be quite challenged to not screw up alot while he is learning. I think the key is that we are going to intall an O scheme, have acquired and our training our players to run an attack which emphasizes short accurate passes which pick up yards with runs after the catch and uses the RB extensively as a check down receiver abd running option to set up the pass. Basically, I think it will be our version of the Rams model. I think this approach actually can be even more effective than the traditional offense in the winter winds of the Ralph as it call upon shirt passes to complete plays designed to elcit yard gaining runs after ward. To date the Bills have: 1. Acquired speedy recievers who shoould force opponents to play back due to fear they will run right by them and this shouild create separation for short passes or force opponents into zone coverage where our WRs will look for seams. 2. Ephasized FA acquisition to build the OL which assuming these players can build chenistry should actually get them off to a quick start until the nicks and injuries of a season of play slow them down. We will need to develop quality back-ups or have guys step up at this time. 3. Telegraphed heughtened usage of WM as a checkdown receiver and third dfown threat as he plays more of a Marshall Faulk role that uses him to run heavily but uses the run to set up the pass. 4. Emphasized using the TE and the FB as extra blockers for the run option rather than looking for or taining receiving threats. In this model, the key for the QB is not gonna be the escapability, improvisation and athleticism a JP brings to the game after his days behind the porous Tulane OL. Instead, I think our QB is going to need to fo good reads to identify which of our speedy WRs is single covered and hit him with a quicl pass that either hits him while their is separation or the WR runs under a bomb thrown to a spot. Our QB is going to need to exercise quick judgment to checkdown to a safety valve or go with the play. I think this style of game more fits the veteran KH than the young athletic (and sometimes skittish as young QBs can easiily be) JP. The best thing for us would be if JP has learned enough lessons from his awful start as a pro from watching the O under Bledsoe and trying it himself last year that the game slows down enough for him to make quick judgments in his play. It looks doubtful after a week of camp struggles by JP, but we can and reallu need to wait for the 1st game to see how this really plays out. I think JP is the far better athlete and the result is in his hands, but I think it is more likely that KH will be more productive in this O and he will get the nod.

Agreed as the major problem for many TSW posters is that they seem to have bought into the QB Club hype and really look to the QB to be some type of saviour and judge that it our QB does not walk on water like an Elway or a Favre we are doomed. It certainly is great to have an Elway or a Favre on the field, but the occurence of these HOF players happening is so rare that if winning the dice game to get one of these players in not just wonderful but in fact essential then we probably are doomed. Most SB appearing teams do have a stud QB (though most teams simply do not have an Aikman, Montana or a Jim Kelly), and the fact is that even many SB winning teams have QBs such as Brad Johnson, Hasselbeck and even the oft-mentioned Dilfer who have been total failures elsewhere. The Bills are setting things up with: 1. the scheme we are likely gonna use (a St. L type O but who can say for sure til it runs even one play on the field in regular season), 2. are working to develop underused skills in players (WM getting some downfield passes in practice so far), and 3. acquired players who limited skillsets includes particiular types of skills (the WRs may not have even a true #2 quality player but there will be big time WR speed on this team). If the Bills O plans work out the way that Jauron and fairchild are setting them up under Levy then we will get by with a QB who is not a savior but one who is merely adequate. The ability to throw deep bombs well consistently is not what the run after catch St. L O is all about. Even if a player like KH honestly has a rag arm, if he can haul out the ability to throw the deep strike a couple of times a game and even throw it in the right situation so a speedy reciever runs under it rather than him threading it through a crowd then this will work. Doing good reads will be key and upon some consideration from this banter, I am beginning to think that KH may have a leg up as he has the experience to do good reads. If the game has not slowed down yet for JP, KH could win the job even though he is a merely adequate QB with episodes of great production at best. We will se. We have two road games to start and the Bills and many teams do panic when they lose and they could grasp at the Nall straw looking for a savior. However, it is more likely the same experience that the Bills team had in 2004 when after a 1-4 start folks were arguing to throw Bledsoe under the bus, but MM beleived in his system and stayed the course. the Bills ultimately proved not to be good enough and lost to Pitts but a great QB is wonderful, but great QBs simply do not occur for NFL teams with regularity (and in fact as Indy has shown simply having the best QB does not guarantee you even a berth in the SB). The kwy here is not to find a savior at QB (I know KH is not one, really doubt JP will be one this year (if ever) and really doubt that the Pack drafted Rodgers and let Nall go because it is a good bet he is a savior. The more important and realistic question is not which QB is great, but instead how do you see the Bills doing better and even winning without a QB who is so great he walks on water.

The mentions above of the import of ST contibutionis is a factor that could have this make sense. This thread got me looking at some of the player stats and history and I was actually surprised to find that A-Train had only payed 5 year. Thus, in my mind he is not to old of player to have changed his game a bit when he fell down from being a #1 RB and is young enough that he could learn to make an ST contribution (but yet has enough vet experience that he does things like stay in his lane on coverage) A look at the salary picture shows that while Thomas draws more than the vet minimum $455K cap hit ), and that much more than Gates earned from his draftee contract ($308 K) or more important what Shaud Williams hit is ($425K) that salary savings make much of a difference at all (particularly given our cap level). I think folks focus too heavily on what theoretical role they assume a player was brought in for as a field player when what really needs to be taken into account particularly with much of the 2nd stringers and all the 3rd stringers is what contribution to they make on gameday from ST. Let's assume (a big assumption) that the way this works out in the coaches minds is that Gates is a far better runner and easily the #2 running talent on the team. Shaud Williams though is clearly the better 3rd down talent but is not the runner Gates is. A Train on the other hand gets judged a lesser runner than Gates AND a lesser 3rd down threat than Williams. On the other hand he falls right in the middle being a better runner than Williams and a better checkdown guy on 3rd down than Gates. Would it make since to cut an A-Train in this situation because he clearly is not the back-up runner to WM because Gates is better and clearly not the back-up checkdown guy to WM because Williams is better. Maybe, but a calculation by the braintrust of what these players contribution on ST may be actually determines who gets cut. Our plan and hope is that WM lucks out on injury so we never have to go to a back-up on 3rd down or to play the Marshall Faulk checkdown role in our O except to give WM the occaisional blow caused he is tired or was nicked in a game. Where this player is actually gonna contribute to the team week in and week out is on ST rather than sitting on the bench just in case. Who knows how hypothetical this is and even if it were real what the outcome will be (though given the problems MM said in an e-mail the rookie Gates had with ST contribution last year and given that Thomas is old enough to know what he is doing and not too old to contribute it could well be that he wins an ST battle. It not only makes sense that one might keep a Thomas but actually he may have a leg up in this based on years in the NFL and assessment of Gates ST play last year. We will see.

As best as I can tell from a conversation with a fellow who managed a signifocant chunk of stock holdings for Buffet who talked with me a bit about the Biff News when he found out I was from Buffalo, the News as always provided for Buffat exactly what he was looking for when he bought the paper. Tons of profit for the investment. THis may not be true anymore because the newspaper business has changed so radically the past few years and it was a few years back that I had this encounter. However. what impressed him about the News from an investment standpoint is that had essentially obtained a monopoly in print advertising in this market serving a bunch of advertisers such as Tops Friendly Markets which had gained a close but not total monopoly in their sectors of the market. In this situation the Buff News was the only large source of print advertising in the market and the advertisers actually liked keeping advertising costs somewhat high because it provided a market barrier which kept competition in their sectors out of the marketplace. Tops could not dictate advertising marketing rates as it controlked over 2/3 of the marketplace for grcery stores but not all of it as if they got to upity with the News it could do things to support Wegman's, Bells or others invading the marketplace so it in essence colluded with the Buff News to dive them a consistent hefty profit. The media market has changed so radically, the Buff News has had to do other things to maintain a huge profit margin. It milke what it could out of salary costs by beating down the unions and now has moved into lowering their spending on content and profit making services which is reflected in folks seeing the paper for the first time in awhile and realizing it looks like crap in terms of content. The internet and its role in providing serice to customers but also tuirning the historic huge profit margind has been interesting. The Buff news was far slower in providing an online edition than most other newspapers for cities because it did not want to do it unless it could gain its typical profit margins. Thus you saw and see the News handling the net differently than their peers in the newspaper business. 1. The Buff News really led the charge in only providing access to it articles fpr tem days over the web and then one must subscribe and pay to have access. Free articles are available at the public library, but any thought of the News acting as the paper or record with easy access by the public to a history of its writing is someting only easuily available if you have the wealth. 2. The S and C is owned by the Gannett chain and thus it became the lead sponsor of a a Buffalo Bills bulletin board in the late 90s. However, it gained the expertise to build it but not the expertise to moderate it. The papers commitment to free speech initally had it refusing to alter of limit postings beyond the bruadest definitions of decency. When it decided to crack down a bit as the conversation headed off more and more toward the rancor being popularized by folks like Rush Limbaugh amd porn stuff (which really has been a major driver of the spread of the web- the ability to pay for things securely and also maintain anonymity has been pioneered in many cases by folks who wanted to buy and sell porn and place bets for gambling with some sense of security and anonymity. The detath knell for the D & C board was when its crackdown efforts resulted in individuals they angered baraging it with spam and foul language. Fortunately the free market and folks like Scott stepped in an created TSW and the nascent D & C community found its way to the for profit board which had the ability and the knowledge base of Scott to be draconian and kick folks it deemed negative or attacking influences off TSW and to defend it from internet attacks. The Buffalo News being unwilling to invest in the web until it figured out how to turn a profit sat on the sidelines and allowed others to serve the community in towns like Rochester and folks like Scott. 3. For years the News refused to undergo the capital costs of using modern and computer based printing technology. In fact the company which built the BN's printing press went out of business. Rather than invest in a new more modern system, the Buffalo News actually hired the folks from the company and then eventually turned servicing the remaining printing presses limping along or handed down in other cities into another profit center. Eventually, the paper moved later than many others to printing color photos and had to buy new presses. and so on and so As best as I can tell the folks that Buffet has managing his investment recognize that the newspaper business as we know i is dying and dead. Their strategy seems to be to cut off the parts that do not turn their historic level of huge profits even if they serve the community and to replace them with new technologies as long a s the capital imvestment is low enough or proven by someone else taking the risk of being the first person into the pool that a new approach turns a profit This is a legitimate and fine way to run a business. it just is really only in certain coincidences a good way to serve a community. Yhe Niff News has never been primarily about serving the WNY community. it does that from time to time and in significant ways but it almost always is a coincidental effect of turning maximum profit gor its investors. I'm sure Warren Buffet has been quite pleased that his investment is doing what he invested in it for it to do. Serving the WNY community or the Bills community is a secondary byproduct for the investors.

The debate about how good Posey or whether there is some scheme or role which puts him to a use almost all fans would be satisfied with is academic until there is more certainty about TKO's recovery. Its a great sign that he is suited up and working out though little is certain unitl he and the Bills are comfortable with him taking some hits. That apparenly will not happen until late in training camp and only in practice if at all. Even folks who hate Posey were not campaigning for him to be sat down for Haggan or Stamer last year, and it simply remains to be shown on the field of play what he can do, whjat Watson can do and how he stacks up against Stamer and Haggan. We are enough under the cap that if there is a problem it may be that we are forced to spend more money by the CBA rather than butting up against it so I doubt that $1.3 million is going to make a driving difference for this team unless Ralph is forcing them to save every nickle they can. We'll simply see what the reality is about TKO achlles tendon and what folks's opinons are about Posey's play.

The interesting thing is what this means about the back-ups, Former starter Posey is the back-up for Crowell and this makes sense and will be good for the Bills if this holds true. Ezekial is listed as the back-up to Fletcher and I doubt this and hope that traded for forner MLB starter Watsib takes the #2 job, Haggan is the back-up for TKO which might work but I actually prefer Posey to Haggan as the #2 SLB. I would guess that Stamer and Ellison also make this squad which brings us to 8 LBs, but Wendell Humter is apparently having a good camp in this first week so because LBs demographically fit for ST roles maybe we end up with 9 but i doubt this.

It all depends on Evans because there is not other player with the rep, tools, college hype and most all good production in his first two years who could even hope to be the #1 we want and need. Its not a bad bet at all to plan for him to occupy this role. The Moulds meltdown last year was caused because in essence Evans had replaced Moulds as the go-to guy in the Bills offense as he and JP hooked up for an amazing 3 TDs at the start of the game. Moulds had been frustrated all season as he and JP never developed the ability to connect that he had with Bledsoe. After being burned for TDs again and again (and even again) they switched up and doubled Evans to stop his production. Moulds seem to lose it when with him now singled or going up against inferior DBs JP and he did not connect. He had the misfortune of choosing Tyke Tolbert (WR position coach) as the object of his wrath and apparently Tolbert told him to shut up and play football. His resulting tirade ended up being classified as a hissy-fit apparently by his teammates as surprusingly to me as an outsider no one came to his defense when he had to be restrained during the game and then was suspended afterwards (even though the Pres of the NFLPA was on the team and if anyone should have come to a player's defense when management suspended even if the player was wring (I mean the NFLPA even tried to defend that idiot TO when he was suspended) you would think TV would but the silence from his teammates was deafening and I suspect had a large part to do with him wanting to get out of town under any circumstances and the Bills essentially wishing him well but requesting that he not let the door hit him on the way out. Who knows why it happened exactly like it did, but I suspect that it was some combination of the fators below: 1. Old players get supplanted by younger ones and Moulds did not handle this gracefully. 2. Picking a fight with tyke Tolbert was interesting as it is a signal Moulds was displeased with how the WRs were being asked to run routes or be the primary receiver. If so, then he should have shut up and dealt with in the post-gameteam recalibration, if instead his problem was with JP's choices or execution his problem was with JP and not with Tolbert, By fighting with an African-American coach, Moulds could not even falsely play the race card if he chose to take on the higher-ups. 3. Picking this fight in mid-game really let down his teammates. Overall, I think by what haooened on the field and by what the depth chart says Evans is the #1 WR. Moulds is a real loss because having a #2 with his rep and skills is quite nice. Evans performance is question as the Bills have no plan B for a #1. However, what they need to find as a roster replacement is soneone who can fill the @2 role abandoned by Moulds. I think PP who gas fulfilled this role big time for the Bills before should be able to do this as he clearly is not at #1 quaity. Its a question of whether one feels the great speed Evans brings and some great concentration he has shown in the first week of camp is enough for him be a credible #1. My sense is that with the speed PP brings and the potential for Parrish in 3 WR sets to be incredibly challenging to match all that speed, Evans should do the job this year.

I really do not know a lot about the details of the Ram offense to say whether the Rams East moniker will fit, but from what I hear it will fit because I expect this Bills O to qualify as being pass-happy. However, my understanding of the Rams O is that it eas not pass happy because the QB was throwing it downfield 30 yards or more on every play. It was pass-happy because he passed a lot even though they may only be 8 yard tosses and the expectation and successful execution was to see a lot of yard picked up through run after the catch (RAC) rather than on long bombs. The use of the K-Gun as an example is a good one. It did not have a bunch of plays and the plays were not very complex. However, whether they were gonna run or pass on a play the personnel could do both well enough so they did not have to make substitutions. The plays and demeanor of the players looked the same whether it was one of the few plays that went deep or one of the few plays which went short and expected RAC. Because the plays looked the same so defenders did not know whether to drop back or pinch in and because opposing teams could not sub guys to give their players a blow or to put in run speciailists on running downs or pass coverage specialists on passing downs, they ran the table until opponents developed responses to what the Bills did well. One of the reasons why I do not think that selection and the quality beyond adequacy is going to be a big factor for the Bills in whether the O is effective or not, is because the QB in an offense which if we are lucky and good will be a productive as the Rams O is not going to be called upon to lead this team with great physical skills. Instead, I think that productive QB play for the Bills is going to come down to making good reads of the opposing D to know which WR has single coverage and knowing when to bail quickly on the primary play call and instead checkdown to a short dumpoff to WM who turns it into a 5 yard gain or makes the first man miss and gets a big gain. It does not mater a ton that the Buffalo weather is bad to effectively run a pass-happy version of our O which could reasonably be called Rams East as long as like the K-Gun the significant number of passes are 8 yard flares with only the occaisional long bomb to keep the D on their heels for fear this is going to be the one play where Evans, Peerless or Parrish goes on a fly pattern and runs under a long pass from the QB. If the D is in their version of s cover 2 with the receiver doubled by a safety we will get stopped. However, if the opposing D is doing press or single coverage, i like our chances with very speedy guys in the WR positions. A key to this (particularly since our OL has historically been so weak we need the TE to play as a 6th OL player) is for our RB (meaning WM) o be an effective checkdown option in the Marshall Faulk role. I like the players we have acquired and the potential plans as I can really see this working well. WR- We are simply loaded with very fast WRs who have shown at least adequate hands (except for Reed who is still a droppsie guy until he has a more productive seaon than his rookie year to prove otherwise, but his smarts to pick apart zones other teams should be forced into by our speed and his theoretical RAC ability from being a college RB makes him a very good choice as #4 WR for us). RB- Its going to gonna come down to how effectivea reciever WM is. He has shown some good ability in this area in college and in his brief use as a receiver as a pro. However, he was such a srong runner and TC went away from the outside game with his playcalls and use of WM last year, this is still and unproven area for him. If he remains healthy and is productive as a reciever he may well be simply outstanding this year. FB will be interesting as I see them primarily useful in goaline situations or when we are burning clock in the 4th quarter. OL- The probable starters this year are simply flat out better performers than the starters last year. However, we look pretty threadbare in terms of back-ups for the OL. I expect we will actually get off to a surprisingly successful statt. but as the nicks that occur to all NFL players over the course of a season mount up. we need to get some quality back-up minutes from Preston, Gibson and likely Butler or likely we have some big problems. One of the other likely benefits from going to a short pass RAC oriented pass-happy style is that the OL will not have to hold blocks very long as the QB will need to get rid of it fast to an open receiver, a checkdown, or OB or we are in trouble. QB- JP will be interesting to watch. The kwy to him being a successful QB for us IMHO is not going to be his running skills, escapability or ability to improvise and make plays, but instead the game slowing down for him to make good effective reads. I think he is far more talented that KH, but as a 10 year vetwith a weak arm, KH may well be much better suited to be effective running our O than JP may be. We'll see.

They do not tell the TV networks like ESPN what tio do because America is driven by the Golden Rule. He who has the gold rules. The NFL has been revolutionized since the early 90s because the NFLPA threatening to dissolve itself which would have forced the team owners to compete in a free market. The NFL and the NFLPA developed a partnership rather than fighting with each other, because in addition to not wanting to face the cruelties of free market ciompetition for player services, the team owners came to see that they would make more money than ever before from the TV networks. The TV netwoks simply pay the NFLPA/NFL partnership far more money for the rights to use the NFL product to sell commercials than the NFL can make from ticket sales and other sources of revenue. Entertainment drives the dollars and while the NFL can place some restraints on itself to maintain the pretend integrity of the game, it is simply in no position to dictate very much to the TV networks who pay the bills.

Yes, in rare cases (which is how it should be). Though you will little increase in the nimber of times it is successful you should see a % increase in the number of times onside kick success comes from plays like the one the Bills pulled on Miami to start the second half of a game season before last. Lindell did a fantastic job kicking the ball in the middle of the field the required ten yards and recovering it himelf. As the rule does not allow any kicking player to even have contact with an opponent until the ball has traveled 10 yards, this move was a masterpiece of timing (and faking that the kick would be normal by the entire team) by Lindell. This move reduces the chances of random success from loading up one side of the field where essentially the task of the kicker was to put the ball into play and then the kicking team needed to get the ball in the scrum afterwards wbere it was estimated the ball changed ownership several times. This move puts a lower priority on fighting in a scrum and dumb luck and thus more of planning and execution of the onside kick. Teams will still do this even without the load as a snowball's chance in heck is better than no chance at all, but it simply will reduce the chance of the game coming down to a random event.

What the NFL seems to be increasingly about as the players get faster and bigger and the salary cap constraints alter rosters, having a Plan B for each position is essential to getting enough Ws (along with dumb luck with the way the oddly shaped ball bounces and how the refs calls go when Luckett blows the coin flip). NE won their SBs, because of the dunb luck that Brady turned out to be a great Plan B (in fact easily better than BB's Plan A) when Bledsoe got killed. The next couple of wins saw NE Plan Bs of players stepping up when folks like Colvinwent down or the WRs producing at DB when they went down. The killing effect of Whitner not signing appears likely to be not having Bowen at SSD, but now having Coy Wire as our Plan B.

Agree you should keep it coming in this or whatever style you want. The post which reflected that having the birthday cake means we are not committed to or even have a desire to win is simply evidence of a small mind which cannot do both things at the same time. The two things are not mutually exclusive and actually in a world which increasingly demands multi-tasking an inability to grasp both goals is a sign of a non functional personality.