Pyrite Gal

Many thanks clumpster keep up the great work please it is appreciated!

I don't know whether its funnier that some folks take a game so seriously and have to be reminded its just a game or that some of us seem to forget that this just a game is based on just a game. I that taking the fantasy of the game seriously is actually fine because it is based on the fantasy of the NFL so like a double negative it cancels out and Madden is actually reality.

I think the question for Bills fans right now is whether what we have is a situation of: JP Losman: by far the better athlete Holcomb: Overall insufficient as a QB but his 10 years experience makes him better at reads than the young Losman. I think Losman is a better athlete than KH and eventually should be the better QB, but even though I think Holcomb is at best a back-up quality QB because he has never shown the consistency of performance and health to be a starter, I think Jauron and Marv may well opt for the player that gives them a better chance right here and right now than invest in dveloping Losman for the future. I thik the plan is for the Bills braintrust to have enough speed at WR, a vet OL which though not good enough players to hold blocks for a long time is good enough for a QB who does good reads to either hit the speed reciever quick or checkdown before the sack. I think the two additions that the Bills are counting upon this year is to turn WM into an athlete rather than just a rusher and get him to perform as a lesser version of Marshall Faulk and to get greater production as a checkdown receiver from the TE than the Rams got. I think Losman will really need to step up this year and show he has already developed the ability to make good reads even as a youngster or instead the Bils are making plans about how to win with an inadequate starting QB.

I hate to admit I did not notice your response but now I will look for it.

I think many posters are misunderstanding what it will take to run our offense well if what Fairchild has designed is an offense which credibly can be called Rams East. We'll see a little when the team runs the vanilla O in pre-season and we will see for sure when the regular season starts. However, I think that though we will have a pass happy offense which we hope will follow in the footsteps of a Rams offense dubbed the Greatest Show on Earth, that for this offense to be successful, it will not require the QB to demonstrate great escapability and hurl long bombs for completions 40 yards down the field. Instead, I think that our QB will run the offense most productively when he makes good reads that allow him to figure out which reciever has gotten a cushion in his coverage because of his speed, or which Bills receiver is best able to pick on seams left in a zone coverage that our speed forces the D into. In fact, our O will be successful and working well if the QB is able to read that it us unlikely that a WRwill get quick separation or much room because of double coverage, and he is able to make a short pass on a checkdown to WM flosting out of the backfield or the TE is left free on a short route because the D feels he is blocking and our QB sees this and takes what he is givn for a substantial 5 yard gain or even more if the reciever makes the first guy miss and gets free to pick up great RAC yardage. I think JP will actually be the best of our QBs and so far it is great to see him making completions as completions are better than incompletions even if they are occuring due to improvisations and chemistry rather than running the scheme (I do not know which is the case and I doubt any observersreally know for sure because none of us outsiders know what the scheme is yet). However, this first game will begin to tell us alot as we are facing enemy forces whom the QB does not know ahead of time how they are supposed to react. JP is outplaying KH for sure, but JP still has to demonstrate that he has learned enough to slow the game down so that he makes good reads against Ds he has never seen before. It was unclear last time he played enemy forces whether he had mastered this. JP also needs to demonstrate that he has developed beyond the great skill set he demonstrated in college where he showed tremendous escapability running for his life behind the Tulane OL and a great ability to improvise for TDs with Tulane. Rather than improvisation, the NFL game calls for cooridnation as the way to success. Particularly with an O which is likely to depend on the recievrs getting great initial separation due to their speed or because the D is forced to zone up on them, it the pass is not thrown within 3 seconds of the snap the play probably is not working and if the pass is not thrown within 5 seconds of the snap we are in deep trouble. The hard thing for us is that if JP has not mastered these elements (I think he can though it is a tough thing to do) then it may both be true that KH is inadequate at the job because he simply has not shown the consistency to translate his 10 year vet reads into quality short completions AND that he will be the best chance our offense has at success if JP is depending more on his legs than his brain to make plays. One of the great signs for us in the Panthers game will be if it can be shown that JP is reading Ds where our recuevers are likely covered by a zone and instead he dumps down as though he were KH's brother for a shorter gain to WM or the TE. It may not be exciting as a QB running around escaping the rush and the firing it a mile downfield (though this would be great to see if the result is a TD but this only works occaisonally and is not a working strategy) but actually having the ability to make good reads and either hit the short pass for big RAC yardage or check it down is likely be far more productive from a QB

Even knowing the correct pronunciation it seems easily close enough to me to write a headline that is a play on words or pronunciation. In fact, since the practice at many newspapers is to have the headline writing and the articile writing being separate functions, holding this faux pas against the writers seems like going way overboard to me. We may want to lighten up a little bit here.

Many thanks Lori and I look forward to your work this season!

No forgiveness needed and welcome aboard to going beyond lurking! That being said, I of course disagree with some of your points and will go into them with stultyfying detail. . The installation of a new system is exactly when you want to share snaps between all subs you think may have to play. In the NFL, the chances that a starter is going to do all 16 starts is not certain at all and in fact it is quite likely that your best player is gonna miss some significant time (a quarter or so and certainly several series or so) at some point during the season. That poit may come at a critical time in the game and you need to be sure that your sub has played in your offense against serious or real competition so you don't miss a beat when the sub comes in. In 2001, Bledsoe was the clear starter over Brady, but do you think that Bledsoe got all the serious reps and Brady got none? Nope and it was a good thing that Brady got the reps he did because thanks to a collapsed lung he was the starter. I would agree with you that JP is the likely starter for the Bills this year, but particularly because we have a new system and JP struggled enough in the real world last year that simply giving him the job would be obvious folly it's crucial that we give our likely back-up KH some serious work in the new O so that and his peers develop the best chemistry they can and KH develops the best understanding and performance he can in the Fairchild O because if JP falters completely (which I do not think he will), needs a serious blow at a critical time and KH is forced to play (which I think is likely at some point from a slightly pulled JP muscle or if he gets his bell rung an sits as a precaution), or even suffers a serious injury that knocks him out for a few games as happened to him in practice his rookie year (which I hoped does not thappen but no one can control) I for one would much rather have KH get his first exposures to running the Fairchild O in the first couple of games of the pre-season rather than have ir be in the midst of lets say a must win game 9. Even if you are sure that KH does not have the right stuff and is a back-up for us that you are not satisfied with, I think you still want to give him significant reps in pre-season and you are pleased to have it be in the context of him competing for a starting job eveve if you do not think he will win it. In addition, to these broader reasons which make you do it this way, there are some specific reasons for each player why you let this be decided after you see them perform against opponents. I think folks really misunderstand what the QB will likely have to do in order to make a Rams East offense work. This offense will be pass happy if it follows the Rams model. but being pass happy does not mean that we need a QB who can consistenly throw 40 yard bombs because he is gonna have to do that every series or even several times a series if the passes do not connect. The Rams and now the Bills have a bunch of quick recievers, but this is not because they are always gonna run fly patterns against slower DBs. The way it works based on what I read and saw a few times in St. L games is that these receivers and their patterns are designed to getquick separation from the DBs as they are forced to lay back or zone up on these speed WRs, or because the patterns call for crossing patterns which run picks on the DBs or slants which are quick openers. What JP and KN will be asked to do is throw short passes of the 8 -10 yard variety rather than long bombs and then these speedy WRs will try to pick up another 20 yards or score a TD running after the catch. Like any NFL QB, they will have to throw some long passes and make for a credible threat that the receiver may run a fly pattern otherwise all the receivers will see all day is press coverage and getting quick separation will be difficult. However, even though a rag arm NFL QB cannot throw the ball with any consistency all the time (and I doubt KH can successfully put up the long bomb more than a couple of times a game, all he needs to do is hit the bomb successfully a few times this season and even throw credible incompletions that a WR might run under and then the DBs are forced to give them room or the DC is forced to zone up and the WRs will have a much easier time getting separation. JP has clearly been better thsn KH so far in practice. However, JP has not yet shown mastery of touch on short passes and he also needs to demonstrate that the game has slowed down enough for him that he stays calm in the pocket, dumps it off quickly over even throws it OB if there is nothing there and does not bail to early and try to make a play with his legs and escapability as though he was still at Tulane. The odd thing is that we fans will know JP has made it as a QB when he consistently checks down in the Holcomb style or when he throws a few incompletions OB on plays where there was nothing available than instead he is running all over the place and avoiding sacks with his legs. IMHO the key to being a productive QB in the O we apparently are going to run is making good reads with your head rather than making good plays with your arms and legs. Obviously the best outcome would be to have both but that is the test that JP is undergoing. We'll see.

I agree that K F&B's take on Bledsoe and the blitz is right and wrong but my analysis goes in a different direction. Bledsoe saw lots of folks in the box and got sacked by the blitz in 2003 for a lot of reasons, but those reasons are taken away in a lot of cases by different playcalling that that doggedly employed by Kevin Killdrive in 2003 and better use of the tools the O has. This point is seen by contrasting the O performance with Bledsoe in 2003 and the O performance with Bledsoe in 2004. There were some significant but in essence marginal for these purposes personnel differences (nore on that later) but the big difference was that Kildrive was doing the playcalling 2003 doggedly sticking with what had worked for him in 2002 even if it was not working and Tom Clements doing some great things playcalling for Bledsoe in 2004 that whileit did not make a Drew led O great (as seen in the pratfall against the Steelers) produced a far better O performance as seen in the significantly fewer sacks in 2004 and the winning streak which the O played a helpful role in creating along with a lead performance by the D (until it also had a pratfall against the Steelers and great performance by the ST (until it also had a pratfall against the Steelers). Specifically, TC guided the Bills to: 1. Using Bledsoe as a runner more- No one would mistake the statue for John Elway, but you gotta run the QB some in the NFL or opposing Ds eat you alive because LBs and blitzers have fewer duties to guard the center of the field and take loops and routes to blitz sell themselves out going for the sack. TC used Bledsoe more on the delayed draw and other QB planned runs up the center of the field. There was no danger he was gonna get a TD, but merely by the big boy stumbling forward he could log 5 yards plus on a run even if the defenders stayed at home which they did when TC demonstrated a tendency to run. Bledsoe was gonna get popped anway if he was sacked, so it was more than worth risking him getting tackled with him initiating the contact rather than him getting hit more anyway with someone teeing off on him for a sack. DBs runs under TC was probably part of the reduced sack total. 2. The trick plays made the D hesitate rather than selling out to blitz and actually used Bledsoe's ball handling ability. Its been popular on TSW among some poster to rag on the Bills use of trick plays under MM, but these items made good use of one of the things Bledsoe did well (though again some make the rediculous claim he could do nothing right- yes he sucked big time at some stuff but also was very good at some stuff. One thing DB did well was handle the ball and his ability saved Teague while he was learning the shotgun snap many times. Bledsoe's ball handling ability also allowed him to field pitchbacks from McGahee and then hit Evans and Moulds for long passes. This threat made the safety or CB blitz a risk for a DB and again probably again contributed to a lower sack total under for DB. 3. In addition, WMs skills at doing a vicious stiff arm and running wide also made the blitzers not sell out to rushing into the backfield. If WM got the ball and headed wide then a rusher would simply take himself out of the play if he was beelining for DB. One of the ironies I think that happened this past season was that since TC was not forced to run WM wide to protect DB, he decided to run the newly bulked up WM between the tackles alot. I think this move was a mistake as Ds began to focus on clogging the middle once it was clear the Bills no longer had a tendency to run WM out wide. Some complain that WM must have lost speed because he did not break long gains to the outside, but since even any attempt at using the stiff arm also disappeared, what I think happened was the playcalling simply sent WM up the middle a lot more and he rarely ran outside. 4. TC also helped things by "simplfying" Bledsoe's ability to call audibles which I saw as meaning he took away Bledsoe's ability to audible whenever he chose. Killdrive was already to pass-happy and Bledsoe's bias and belief in his rocket arm was proably a part of Killdrive calling too many pass plays on 3rd and short and of the few runs Killdrive did call, Bledsoe woulf audible out of them and switch to a pass play that he was confident that he could thread into tight coverage. The result of this dual pass-happiness was that at one point in 2003 the Bills had done pass plays everytime on 3rd and short situations. This over reliance on the pass caused opposing Ds to blitz everytime on thrid down and sometimes these became sacks. This changed under TC At amy rate, I think that the sack total for Bledsoe was influenced not simply by his or the OL skills, but the play calling had an impact as well as seen in the poor and unaltered playcalling of Killdrive and the play calling of TC which was different with the above mentioned different results, Overall in 2004 Bledsoe still proved to be inadquate to lead this team to the playoffs, but any rational person should be able to see that even his inadequate 2004 was much better than his horrendous 2003. The problems were not all about Bledsoe's skills or lack thereof.

The problem is that if the Rams scheme is a model for our O thne the TE is not the way things get opened up because my understanding is that historically they have made little use of th TE in the passing game. One of the questions which we only have had hints about is that one thing that will differentiate the Fairchiled Rams scheme from out O merely being Rams East is that apparently we might make greater use of the TE. If this is true (which it may not be) then that greater use may merely be restricted to more red zone use and greater use of TE blocking which fit Royal's past achievements rather than use of the TE as a liberating factor for the WRs. We'll see.

If the Bills O under Fairchild is truly going to be Arams East offense then one aspect of it will be far more use of the TE as a blocker and red zone receiver at most and little use of this player as a reciever in the open field. 4 WR and empty backfield sets are far more the likely use and Everett would have little use in such a set with the skill set which got him drafted by MM even if he were healthy. Still there is some talk of the Bills using the TE as a recieving threat which would make sense as even if Fairchild is gonna go with Rams East, increased use of the TE would be one way he could make the offense his own. Yet, even with increased TE usage having that increase be greater use of the TE as a safety valve and checkdown threat would be more likely than seeing use as a downfield threat and this fiits the block first but did set a personal record for receptions skill set of Royal than the undefined accomplishments of Everett. The injury does make it to early to expect Everett to be fully back as Edgrrin James is an example of a player who suffered a severe knee injury who took a good year and half before he showed that he was actually gonna produce, but given that Everett was an MM choice, the scheme has moved away from his skills and well-regarded replacements like Royal and Cieslak are already in the house it does not look good for him. His use and production in the first pre-season game will tell alot.

I disagree that the dink and dunk is not what Fairchild is looking for. My understanding from some but not a lot I have seen of the Rams O, about their use of Faulk (a role we see WM playing), the players we accumulated, what we are doing in practice, and the comments of Fairchild and the players is: 1. This will be an O that can reasonably be called Rams East though there will be significant differences such as greater use of the TEs as checkdown receivers. 2. That though this offense may end up reasonably be called pass-happy, a lot of the passes will seek to produce long gains not by the QB throwing long passes downfield all the time, but by getting quick separation by speedy receivers who then take an 8 yard throw and produce RAC yardage. 3. Holcomb's challenge in this O since essentially he is a career back-up with some productive episodes is NOT going to be to line up and throw the ball long all day (I really doubt he can do this effectively) but instead to make good reads and identify which WRs are single covered so they can get separation when they are hit with the short pass. Like any NFL QB, KH will need to go long a few times a game and actually hit a few here and there or opposing DBs will press and dare him to go deep. However, this threat can be made real enough to create space with him throwing it long against a press coverage simply to a particular spot and long yardage and a speedy WR runs under the ball rather than him needing an arm to thread it through good coverage. After 10 years he should be able to make the reads and while he certainly does not have a Bledsoe like arm even a rag arm NFL QB can make the downfield throws a few times a game to keep the opposing DBs honest. I think JP remains the odds on favorite to win the QB job though because rather than elevating his play to a new level to win the job (which KH would have to do if he solves his inconsistency issues) JP will actually need to rein in his game a bit to be more effective. If JP learns the game well enough to slow it down in his brain he can make the reads necessary to dump it off either for a couple of yards and we live to fight another play or for a big gain from run after the catch. He needs to stop depending on his athleticism and ability he developed to make something happen which he learned running for his life behind the Tulane line and instead learn to let the game come to him, count on his teammates and really take the substantial amount the opposing D gives us.

I think this listing proves the point about there being such a stark difference between the calculus of rating individual players or talent and the reality of team performance. Its true particularly if one tries to use either rating as a basis for making some prediction or having some clue about the future. Specifically, how much would a rating of pro bowl or whatever criterion level talent of the 2001 Pats (even if you agreed completely with the conclusions made by Mr or Ms Train in this post) have to do with the real world performance of the 2001 Pats? The answer is not really a whole bunch. The 2001 Pats team was defined by Dre Bledsoe not in terms of how one would rank him as a talent, but by how this team became a TEAM as all these players sucked it together to deal with being QB'ed by the talents of Tom Brady. Pro football teams are defined not by how the individual pieces add up, but by how the teams plays together. Add in a srong dose of dumb luck and how the refs call plays like the application of the tuck rule at a critical point of a must-win game that year in the midst of weather that no one controls and one gets a sense of why this car wreck called the NFL is so interesting! Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that one should not make predicitions because in the end these predictions are rendered meaningless by the events of life (they are actually as this situation shows that even if the void of talemt prediction is accompanied by a winless Bills season this result is probably mostly coincidence rather than incisive analysis). I'm simply saying that any prediction of performance in order to be more rather than less correct needs to be framed in the context of uncertainty rather than clarity because too many random and unpredictable things (like the weather, refs calls and team chemistryI at just the right time in retrospect end up determining outcomes. In addition, the NFL is a league which imitates success so much and where the confidence of the players impacts performance so much, if a team wins even due to dumb luck in the first circumstance, they play with a swagger and belief in themselves and each other in future games which produces more success. I think that it was the case of the Pats teams of the early 2000s and the Bills teams of the early 90s was not so much that they were so good they always won (well almost always in our case) but that actually they believed in themselves and each other so much that they could not lose. I like the Bills prospects in 2006 actually because I like our prospects for a quick start. I think the both O and D schemes are relatibvely simple approaches with a Rams East offense being more about ahort passes, simple reads, checkdowns, and RAC rather than complex plays. The Tampa 2 approach seems like it will be built on lining up and playing. Just like the K-Gun, it was not that the offense was so complex, it was that it was difficult for the D to figure out what the Bills were going to do on a given play among a limited number of choices and when one added in a tempo that did not allow opponents to substtitute we ran them over. I think we will go into our first game in NE likely to lose, but the Pats will not really be able to say what our tendencies are because this will be the first real game exposure of out new O and D. If through dumb luck we can eke this one out we are on our way. I also like the improvements made in our starters on OL over last year but do not expect this to last in terms of the performance of individual players as the season and injuries wear on. However, I think the important thing which will determine a lot about the performance of a player like Butler if for example he is thrown in as a sub for an injured player is whether he is filling in an OL which was productive and it is a question for Butler to fit and play well or if he joins and OL which is faltering and his job is to be a savior which reverses its course. The former can be done but the latter tends to be impossible for a rookie.

This thread is mostly interesting in that the approach seems to be one of trying to say adding up the talents of individual players will produce a total that somehow equals a team's production or level of achievement, when actually one of the most interesting things IMHO is that the NFL is really one of the uktimate team (really TEAM) games. The NFL is really great to watch because time and time again 1 + 1 does not equal 2 but can equal 3 as two inferior talents who play together and in coordination can be far more productive than two better players who cannot be on the same page. If the calculus that the lead post invests in were even remotely true then there is no way that play and fortunes shift over the course of a single season where the Bills start the season by destroying NE 31-0 and then end the season by losing 0-31 to the same team. The cliche that on any given Sunday one team can beat another gets proven every year by at one game like the one a couple of years back where a horrid Fins team beat the SB champion Pats in a game. The calculus of assessing individual talent (and then using the result to make statements with such dead lock certainty that it simply defies reality) without somehow also adding features that show the limitations of mathematical individualistic calculations simply cannot support any srongly held assertions. The absolute nature of the statements that the Bills are virtually devoid of talent also clearly invite a rigor to be applied to the arguments which makes simple misspeliing of player names undercut the assertions. Also claims like the one attributing such greatness to Winslow who has not played due to his own stupidity while badmouthing the achievements of the fastest Bill RN to rush for 2000 yards ever simply invites the vitriol of many of the responses. The point made about the Bills having little Pro Bowl talent is incorrect on the face of it since a number of players not named like McGee in fact made the Pro Bowl (pointing out he did not make it as a position player simply ignores the reality that he made it because he scored 5 TDs on returns and had an enormous impact on games and ignores the opinion many have that actually he is playing better CB than Clements right now) and also ignores the potential of several Bills who have not made it to make with a breakout year by players such as Schobel. The point made in this thread MAT be correct, the main problems are that it is made so stridently that it forces high scrutiny on itself and the point is not very well argues in thread.

The Buffalo Bills official depth chart provides a pretty good hint. It is subject to change through game time, but I think that while predicting JP will start would be speculation, suggesting that the depth chart reflects some sense of where the Bills are right now is not unreasonable.

The regular season is too long and the potential for season ending injury is so real in the NFL that I do not see a pre-season decision sealing anyone's fate. How the regular season goes and how the players perform in it will determine a lot more about the player's future with the Bills.

One cannot assume that Ralph's vote was against Goodell if he was voted for someone else. He may like Goodell and just like the other guy even more.

If KH is named starter its a likely sign that the Rams east offense has been installed and a pass happy Bills offense is going to emphasize short passes and speedy receivers running after the catch. In order for this to work a number of things will need to happen correctly in term of the Bills O. However, as we appear to have a crew of speed freak receovers who are showing good hands and concentration so far, have OL starters who performed better than last year's OL starters, and WM is being used in camp as a pass catcher so that he can play the checkdown receiver role Faulk player in St. L, it is not outrageous to see how this would work. Holcomb would not have to air the ball out with long throws consistently which I agree he cannot do. He would need to make good reads to identify which WRs are single covered and he would have to dump off to WM quickly if there is not good RAC catch available. This sounds like the type of game even a rsg arm with experience could do and the main challenge for Holcomb would be to stay healthy. For the Bills the good news is that Losman is clearly more talented, it mostly if he has gotten enough experience for the game to slow down for him and he has learned the discipline to not try to win the game on his own with his legs and escapability.

I think us getting the Ws necessary to make the playoffs requires: 1. The ST to perform as well as the last two years (this could happen and though I think unless we get a couple of nice bounces of the oddly shaped ball we will finish with a #3, #4, or #5 statistical ranking rather than the number 1 ST we've had the last couple of years, with Marv re-emphasizing strong ST player acquisition a top 5 ST finish should happen and that will be a good enough performance if the other parts of the team do their part. 2. The O needs to surprise folks and actually be a force to be reckoned with (I also think this can and may well happen as the #1 thing that needs to happen to make the apparent Fairchild O scheme work of have a deeo cire if speedy WRs with good ball concentration seems to be there. The #2 factor he needs is a better OL which I think we will have until the starters begin to suffer the usual nicks and then all bets are off as the back-ups need a lot of help, and the #3 factor of WM doing a reasonable imitation of Marshall Faulk can happen as well. All three of these factors look OK to start theseason and if they work then as long as the QB is adequate we will get some Ws. If these 3 do not work it does matter if the QB is very good we will still get Ls. 3. Finally, the D needs to be a force. This may happen and I am glad that Jauron has had past success in this area because I certainly do not see how this group is going to be a force. It may be, but I do not know enough about football to see how this will happen. As far as this thread, I think that KH actually is more likely to be an adequate QB than JP. However, I think JP is much more likely to be a very good QB than Holcomb as JP simply has more talent and upsiide. I think this pre-season will tell us a lot because we will be able to judge whether JP has gotten it yet do the game slows down for him a bit and he is able to be productive because he is not trying to win the game himself by making a great run or throw, but instead he is depending on his teamates to do their jobs.

Who will unfairly be the scapegoat? Who know's and I really do not care as some folks are entertained most by this game by choosing someone to rant and rave about. Selection of this target is not often based on football or even nornal folk logic so its hard to guess. The real case here is that if the buck truly stops with anyone who deserves to be blamed for the failings of the team it is with Ralph no ifs, and s or buts about it. This is not to say that he is a bad football guy or a horrible person. On the contrary, WNY owes him a debt it cannot really repay for his sending a few bucks our way and helping make Buffalo a major league town even when its economy was and continues more slowly but still relenetlessly do the tubes as the rich guys who built this area have taken a lot of profit from the natural resources of this area and either dies of old age or flew the coop for cheaper economic climes for profit taking in the developing world. Ralph certainly deserves our thanks for what the Bills have brought to this area, but he also deserves the blame for being in charge of a franchise that has repeatedly made a bunch of bad football decisions. These date back to and are highlighted by: 1. Ralph badly assessing how long Jimbo would remain a productive NFL player, 2. misreading Butler's football plans, 3. and then leaping to fill the void left by hismisreading the Butler situation and then hiring TD who is a very qualified football mind, but was more driven by making sure he was never again fired by an HC he hired than taking the risks necessary to go deep (or even into) the playoffs in the NFL.

The other piece of good news is that it looks to me IMHO that as long as either JP OR KH (OR Nall when he come back) are playing adequately even if they not great it will not make a huge difference in thems # of Ws accumulated this year. 1. I'm not saying that QB performance does not matter a lot- What I am saying is that if other factors do not work out, it matters it matters little how the individual QB performs as neither JP or KH is likely to be anywhere good enough to win IF: A. Our WRs do not offer enough, speed, depth, and adequate hands to make our version of the Rams O perform we will have trouble. If they turn out to be so slow they do not force opposing Ds to give them room or even depend on zones, if they cannot get enough separation to allow them to get good RAC performance, or if they develop the droppsies with multiple WRs performing like Reed in his sophomore campaign even a great QB will throw the ball on a dime only to have it broken up or INT's ed by tightly covering DBs or our WRs will get hit in the chest and the ball will bounce away. On the good side though, if in fact Evans, Price, Parrish show scary speed that opposing DBs must give them room, or they can get quick separation using their speed and good play calls to get quick separation, even an adequate QB will be able to read this and throw the 8 yard passes necessary for them to get big gains. The good news is that it seems pretty clear that Evans has world class speed and is showing good concentration on the ball so far. Given his first two years of performance where he essentially unseated Moulds as the go-to WR he is a good shot to be a legit #1. That, PP shows all signs early on resuming at least the good performance of a #2 that is merely a subset og his great performance as a #2 for thje Bills is doable. That Parrish is turning some heads with his performance so far that would make him a formidable #3. Add to this that the primary job of Reed as a #4 is really gonna be picking at zones other teams are forced into by the speed of the first three and Tolbert is on record declaring him one of the smartest players on the Bills roster which along with his RAC potential as a former RB and his production as a #3 his rooke year sets him up well for the 4 WR sets. Even more amazingly Aiken is drawing some plaudits for his steadiness early in camp and he may be able to play the role of the big possession WR in this O (at 6-2 he is only an inch shorter than Nance and is one of the few WRs above 6 feet in height as our top 3 are all below 6 feet). Aiken's main contribution to this team is likely on ST, and this leaves Fast Freddy, Davis and rookie Nance to compete for the #6 WR role we will cetainly have and potentially a #7 WR as the Bills likely will have to cut at least one NFL vet if not 2 at WR. Its amusing to me that the pundits has pointed to the Wrs as such an area of weakness for this team as right now barring injury it is gonna be a difficult choice who to keep and we likely will have to cut a vet who has produced before episodically in the NFL at WR. B. our OL has problems it matters little what the QB will do and if they excel the QB can perform without a lot of theatrical heroics. Again the news looks very good initially as I think it is clear that our potential starters on OL this year performed far better than the 5 players who started last year. Teague was game but overmatched at C, and thugh Fowler has yet to be a starting C for 16 games in his career, he won the Vikes starting job over longtime Vike Cory Withrow at C and his taking the job coincided with QB Culpepper playing better and then coincided with the Vikes winning 6 in a row. I think it is a football mistake to simply judge Fowler a reject from the Vikes as it was a smart move for them to go with former multi-tiome Pro Bowler Matt Birk at C wth him coming off of IR. However, it is somewhat forboding that the Vikes racking up Ls that coincided with them missing the playoffs last year came when Fowler got knocked out. I do not think he attracted heavy bidding because other teams questioned his injury survival rather than his sjkills but the Bills are making that bet. Reyes offers another player who clearly is an upgrade over last year's starter Anderson (though being an upgrade dows not say much0. however, reyes performance last year where he was a solid starter at RG in a productive Panthers OL indicates he is a clear upgrade. Like Fowler, it is simply a football mistake IMHO to claim he must be bad because NC did not keep him as they actually wanted to go with first day draft pick Evan Mathis at RG last year, but Reyes play and team chemistry forced them to keep the highly paid youngster on the bench. That was not gonna happen with Reyes as an FA. The interesting question is why Reyes did not seem to cause much of a bidding war and the Bills got him relatively cheaply. I think he should have drawn more attention but he did not so we will see. Finally, Peters is just a far better regarded candidate for RT glory than MW but again in terms of on the field stuff it is not saying a lot to be better than MW. Still early reports out of camp are that Peters is matching the hype which just got him extended long term with his play so we shall see. I am pretty sure that this unit will get off to a fast start (particularly given they are being augmented with blocking talent Royal at TE) but I do worry about how we likely will be game 4 and out as the usual nicks or bad luck that happens to OL bodies in the NFL will begin to happen and depth is a real unknown for us past Preston. C. WM simply needs to perform in the Marshall Faulk role of check down receiver and huge run threat which forces opposing Ds to not simply stack 7 or 8 guys in the box. If he resumes his use outside which Clements had abandoned concentrating on running his new bigger body between the tackles and sets WM into positions to ude his powerful stiff arm on DBs as our tackles and TE seal LBs and the DL inside then the LBs will have to hang back to keep good angles on outside runs rather than crowd the middle. By opening up the middle behind the OL we will give more room for Fairchild to create plays for a Rams east attack which uses speed to get separation on routes up the middle and makes good use of illegal picks and crossing patterns free up recievers. If WM becomes an effective checkdown reciever, it will force opponents to leave the middle open if he goes in motion outside or if the D lets him go because they smell a pass play then the QB can throw him a short pass and he can run after the catch if the deep zones are covered. If these three could bes work out then I suspect we will have a very dangerous O and the QB wil not be relied upon to make a bunch of great plays he will be relied upon to make a lot of good reads. If it works like I think we want it to work (and given the personnel we have going for us in terms of some speedy WRs, better OL starters than we had last year and WM being used more as an athlete rather than simply as a very good runner, this O may be a force to be reckoned with. Ironically, depending upon how these three facets work out, it makes little difference how well the QB plays as long as he meets a basic level of adequacy. It will not work even if he is good if the rest of the O does not work or it will be productive even if the QB i simply OK but not great or even very good as an individual player.

Yep

Nah! Tke Bills are.

From what I hear of our O plans and of the player performance before the 1st pre=season game (a point where real judgments can be made) it likely will not make the biggest difference in how many Ws we rack up as long as the QBs are adequate. JP likely is the favorite at this point as simply contractually if things are equal he wins the job. Holcomb likely has the skill set to make an O which looks to produce our version of the Rams O produce well if the WRs are speedy and sure handed (I think they are), WM can play the Marshall Faulk role (we'll see his pass catching against real opponents but the tea leaves look good), and the OL gels (the potential starters this year look much better than the actual starters last year, but our back-ups are unproven and we almost certainly will need 1 or 2 back-ups to step up by mid-season if not sooner. The good news is that JP is beginning to show signs of being adequate and KH is shoing the same inconsistency which has made him a good NFL back-up but not a starter in the NFL. We will have to wait to see some of the almost real games of pre-season before anyone takes any predictions seriously but so far so good thus far/

I hope folks are not surprised to see that though I defended Posey against attacks on his play in 2003 and 2004, I think this cut of him at this point in the season is a great sign for the Bills! 1. As K F&B points out probably the most important thing about the Bills feeling comfortable with cutting him right now is the implication that the Bills seem to feel pretty comfortable that TKO will resume play as a starter. If not, then I doubt the Bills would cut a former starter LB so quickly. Those who observed that an LB with a diagnosis of a torn achilles could well end up with his career being over as has happened and should at least expect it will be a while before he resumes reasonable play were correct. However, what appears to likely be the case here is that while TKO hoing on IR was merited because he needed to go under the knife, it appears once the docs got in there they found that the injury likely was not one of the cases of a torn tendon that knocks a player out of the game. IF this is the case, TKO should be back at good speed soon and this appears to be the case from the decision to cut Posey, This is not for sure but the tea leaves look good. 2. While there is a reasonable chance that the TKO injury is still so severe that it may take some time for him to come back or that he might re-injure himself either rehabbing on the field or slipping in the shower, this cut means the Bills have a good deal of confidence in Crowell, Haggan and the rest of LB crew. 3. TKO did not live up to the expectations of the pundits or many fans which stemmed from his 8 sacks in Tex or the ardor that saw TD sign him so quickly as the FA period began, However, this mistake probably says AS MUCH about poor assessment by pundits and many fans as it does about TD's assessment. A poster above blithely asks for someone to point out even one play where Posey played well. Though focusing on individual plays is not the best way to measure a player's performance this is actually fairly easily done, In 2003 against Tex, it was a Posey sack of Carr which injured him badly enough it not only knocked him out of the game but injured him for several games. In 2004 he got a sack on a 3rd down play in a win against Cleveland and also tackled stud rusher Seattle;s Alexander for a loss of yards on a play. A better measure of his performance is one which looks at whether he played a critical role on a productive D and was he so weak that OCs picked on him producing big gains and TDs for the opponents. The fact is that Posey started 16 games in all three years he was here and logged a bunch of minutes in productive Ds in 03 and 04. I'm surprised that anyone who watched the games with any modicum of are could not recall any plays he did well as even though it seems he was quickly removed from the bb.com site, I can remember the three indiviudual plays above which reflect the role he played in a productive D. In fact the stats can be wrong but the burden of proof now switches to those who want to claim that our 03 and 04 D performance was actually bad or that the good (but not great as we missed the playoffs) D performance was in spite of Posey. This is what I asked for from the complainers about Posey who said he turned the wrong way or was out of position. I still have read no one siting any anecdotes from 03 and 04 where players ran through his tackles for big gains or TDs and players he likely was covering caught passes on him Posey was never a great player, but he did the job for us in 03 and 04 and actually though the D was bad last year and Posey was a part of this poor play, it is arguable that TD got our money's worth out of him in the two years he joined with TKO and Fletcher to form one of the best LB groups in the NFL. So overall, I think Posey played well enough his first year here and was pretty good his second year. However, he seemed to have hit the wall of his productivity in his third year of play for us. The really great news is that we seem to be solid enough at LB to let this former NFL starter go early in camp.