Orton's Arm

By "speed of the modern game" he meant that a quarterback has to be able to process information more quickly today than had been the case a generation ago. While part of this is because players are faster now than they had been, it's mostly because offenses and defenses have become more complex.

I completely agree. I think that Josh Reed is a very underrated player who does his best work out of the slot. The Bills should use a three WR set as their base, with Johnson and Evans on the outside and Reed in the slot.

I agree with just about everything you've written here. The one thing I'd want to add is that 11th overall is too high to take Mack. If the Bills want to take him, they should either trade down and take him that way, or else package their second and third round picks together to move back into the lower part of the first. But whatever else this team does, it must take a center in the lower first round/second round, period.

The original poster was probably guilty of just a wee bit of excess enthusiasm. But I'm willing to overlook that. We as Bills fans don't always have a lot to get excited about. Steve Johnson is one of those sources of excitement--albeit not quite as exciting as the original poster made him out to be.

Pat Williams was the backup NT while Ted Washington was here. There were also times when the Bills went to their "big" package (or whatever they called it) with both Washington and Williams on the field at the same time. IIRC, it was still a 3-4--but with Williams as a DE, and Washington as NT. It was surprisingly difficult for the other teams' OLs to get a good push against our DL when both those guys were on the field at the same time!

You may be right. Brady is about two years older today than Bledsoe was when they traded him. If someone was to make a monster offer for Brady, I could see Belichick pulling the trigger.

I'd define Bruce Smith as a game changer, because he'd be productive even when being double-teamed. And I'd define Tony Boselli as a game changer, because a player like him could cancel out the other team's Bruce Smith. To make a long story short, I agree that the Bills should strongly emphasize both lines in the next several drafts. I also hope that at least one lineman from each of those drafts rises to a difference-maker level of play.

I wouldn't go so far as to call those drafts "bad." Bad is when your first round pick is Erik Flowers, your second round pick Travares Tillman, and your third round pick Corey Moore. Each draft since 2006 has yielded guys who, though not necessarily spectacular, are at least solid football players: 2006: Whitner, Youboty, Simpson, Kyle Williams, Butler 2007: Lynch, Posluszny, Edwards 2008: McKelvin, Corner, Steve Johnson You hope that each draft gives you at least one "game changer" kind of player, as well as a few other, somewhat lesser players who can still play at a solid level. Those three drafts have done a pretty good job of fulfilling the second goal. The problem is that--at least thus far--none of the players drafted looks to be in the "game changer" category. But that could always change, especially among some of the more recently drafted players who haven't yet had the chance to develop. Maybe McKelvin, for example, will be the next Winfield. I'd put a player like Winfield in the "game changer" or "difference maker" category, because you could put him on an island against the other team's difference-maker of a WR, and know that you'd be okay.

I completely agree that whether Whitner has or has not lived up to his status as a #8 overall draft pick has no bearing on whether we should extend him. To be honest, one of the last things I want the Bills to do is to get rid of this guy, if only because that might well mean using yet another top-10 or top-15 pick on reaching for some safety. Marv Levy once said that once you start listening to the fans, you'll soon be up in the stands with them. By this he meant that a coach (and, presumably, a front office type) had to be smarter than the fan base to retain his job for any length of time. I want you to think back to what the fan base wanted, back before that 8th overall pick had been spent. Some were calling for the Bills to take Ngata. Some (including me) pointed out Losman was not the answer at quarterback, and suggested the Bills use the pick on Cutler. Some (such as Bill from NYC) had suggested the Bills trade down and take Mangold. Any of these options would clearly have worked out much better than taking Whitner. None of these options represents 20/20 hindsight, because they were all suggested--and intensely advocated--before the Whitner pick had been made. One hopes for a front office that's smarter than the fan base. It's frustrating to us as fans when so much of the fan base proves smarter than the front office (at least in this instance). It's this frustration--this sense of wasted opportunity--which makes Whitner's 8th overall draft position come up so often. On the other hand, it's really cool whenever the front office proves smarter than the fan base. Picks like Trent Edwards in the third, Brad Butler in the fifth, and Steve Johnson in the seventh, are guys that represent very good value for their draft position. And I don't remember fans calling for these particular players before the respective drafts in which they were taken. The more often the front office proves smarter than the fan base, the better the Bills are likely to do!

I envision a conversation between Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones going something like this: Jimmy: I just coached this Cowboys team to two Super Bowl wins. I'm a great coach. Jerry: Ha! That team was so loaded with talent, even a monkey could have coached it to a Super Bowl win. Jimmy: You're wrong. It took both good players and good coaching to get those Super Bowl wins. Jerry: No, you're wrong. And I'll prove it to you. Jimmy, you're fired. We're about to see how well this team can really do with a monkey at the helm! . . .

Intellectual dishonesty is an extremely serious accusation. In my earlier post, I wrote that "Most of the mock drafts I saw for 2006 had Whitner going 57th overall, to Kansas City." Note that I didn't claim to have made a comprehensive study of mock drafts. A while back, in some other discussion, I did a Google search, came across a few mock drafts, and saw that most of the results I'd come up with had Whitner going 54th (not 57th, as I'd misstated earlier) overall to Kansas City. I also remembered that Vic Carucci had said that he personally didn't have Whitner rated as a first round talent. However, Carucci was quick to add that Whitner's usefulness was dependent on the scheme in which he was being used. After having seen the mock drafts Ramius has found, I believe I was a little quick to jump to a conclusion about the consensus draft projections for Whitner. While one of the mock drafts I opened didn't include Whitner at all (even in the second round), there were others which had him projected as a mid-to-late first round pick.

I always felt that the Bills could put Winfield in one-on-one coverage against the other team's best WR, and be okay. I'm not saying Winfield would shut him down completely, but at least he would ensure that, over the course of the game, the WR's production wouldn't get out of hand. I don't have the same confidence about Whitner's coverage ability with respect to TEs. If a TE is known for being a good pass catcher, and if Whitner is on one-on-one coverage throughout the game, I don't really feel like I can count on Whitner to keep that TE's production down to a reasonable level.

Most of the mock drafts I saw for 2006 had Whitner going 57th overall, to Kansas City. It's not Whitner's fault that he was chosen way above his projected position by a team desperate to fill its self-created hole at SS. Rather than comparing Whitner's performance to what one would expect from the 8th overall pick, it might be better for our peace of mind to compare his performance to what one would expect from a SS picked 57th overall. Once I started thinking of Whitner as a guy chosen 57th overall, a lot of my feelings of disappointment went away. Some might be tempted to say that, even though the consensus was that Whitner was a second round talent, that's not where the Bills picked him. And that it's perfectly reasonable to ask whether the Bills got good value for their 8th overall pick. But it might be better to put that kind of question out of our minds, as the answer will only lead to bitterness and negativity. And as Bills fans, we have enough reasons to feel those things anyway, without spending too much time dwelling on the golden opportunities that had been foolishly squandered in the 2006 draft.

There are three things you typically hope for from a DB: 1) Good pass coverage 2) Good tackling 3) Interceptions and other big plays. Winfield was very strong in the first two categories, while showing little ability to get interceptions. Overall, he was a very valuable member of the Bills, and it was a shame that TD decided to let him go first contract and out. Whitner is only strong at one of those three categories (good tackling). He is mediocre at coverage, and thus far has shown little proficiency at making interceptions or other big plays. One could argue that this last deficiency is due to the way he's used, or due to the lack of a strong pass rush. His less than stellar coverage ability is, to me, a much more serious concern, and is the reason why he doesn't belong in the same category as Winfield.

My one goal for our first round pick is to get a difference maker player. I provided a detailed definition of a difference-maker here. If the pick is a DE or DT, I'd want a guy who can still be productive even when being double-teamed. If Orakpo is the next Dwight Freeney or Simeon Rice, and if he'll still be there at #11, we should take him. If the Bills felt they could get a better football player by going DE in the third than they could have had by drafting some other position of need, I'd be all in favor of taking the DE. DE is clearly a position of need, and there are very significant benefits to building a good DL. I realize we'd be neglecting the DT position, as Bill points out. But there's no way we're going to fill all our holes in one draft anyway, and a deep, good DE group would be a tremendous source of strength.

Off-season moves: Re-sign Crowell, and potentially extend Peters. 1. DE. The Tampa-2 lives and dies by the pass rush of its front four. Aaron Schobel isn't the player he used to be, and we don't have any other DEs who are a threat to rush the passer. Alternative 1: DT. A good pass rush can also come from up the middle. Alternative 2: OT. This would be a good move if things can't be straightened out with Peters, or if there was an opportunity to obtain a significantly better player than Langston Walker. Alternative 3: TE. There's a reason why our quarterback's initials are TE. We need to find him a good one. 2. OC. This team has been in need of a center for years now, and it's time we fill that hole. Alternatives: none. This pick must be used on a center. If the Bills are pessimistic about their options at center in this portion of the draft, they should package this pick with their third rounder, move up, and take Mack. 3. DT. Assuming the Bills didn't take a DT in the first round, this wouldn't be a bad place to grab another DT for their rotation. Alternative 1: OG. The plan would be for this player to provide depth while he learns. He'd likely take the place of some overpaid, underachieving offensive lineman (Derrick Dockery) after a year or two. Alternative 2: Package this pick with our second rounder to trade up for Mack. Alternative 3: OLB. If Crowell goes down with an injury, we need a good OLB who can step up and take his place Alternative 4: FS. 4. OG. (Assuming the Bills didn't take an OG in the third.) Alternative 1: QB. With Losman on his way out, the Bills should think about developing a backup QB. Alternative 2: DB Alternative 3: OLB 5. DB. With Greer likely on his way out, and holes at the safety position, there is always room for a depth DB/special teams player. Alternative 1: OLB Alternative 2: QB Alternative 3: FB Rounds 6 - 7: depth players whose primary purpose will be to help on special teams. This draft will probably result in the use of the first round pick to upgrade the DL, and it will result in the use of the second round pick to upgrade the OL. The third round pick will also likely be used to upgrade one of the lines. I think it's important to get the lines into pretty good shape first, and then start worrying about other positions.

Very good point about difference makers. I'd place difference makers into three categories: 1) If one of your guys can be productive while using up two of theirs, he's a difference maker. Jerry Rice was quite capable of having a productive game while being double covered. Bruce Smith could put a lot of pressure on the QB even when being double teamed. Those guys were category 1 difference makers. 2) If one of your guys can cancel out a category 1 difference maker, he's a category 2 difference maker. You can have a Deion Sanders cover a Jerry Rice and be okay. You can have a Tony Boselli go one-on-one against Bruce Smith without it becoming a problem. These are category 2 difference makers 3) Players who play at the same level as the first two categories of players--who are a constant threat to take control of the game--but who don't play at one-on-one matchup positions. Players like Joe Montana and Barry Sanders were category 3 difference makers. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any players--on offense or defense--who fit into any of the three categories of difference-makers. If we could get difference maker quality of play from just a few key positions, it would significantly lift the level of this team.

The Tampa 2 lives and dies by the pass rush of its front four. Look at the contribution Simeon Rice made to Tampa's Super Bowl season. If we could get an undersized situational pass rusher in the Simeon Rice mold, it would go a long way to upgrading our defense. That's why I voted for Brown. But I could see the argument for going with Raji, especially if you think you're getting a better football player than Brown.

I remember that draft. I didn't feel the Bills had a starting caliber QB on the roster, which was a big reason why I wanted them to take Cutler. I was adamant enough that a poster who shall remain nameless derisively labeled me "Cutler's Arm." (If the Bills weren't interested in any of the quarterbacks, I'd wanted them to trade down and take Mangold. Which also would have been a better move than taking Whitner 8th overall.) Would my first choice--drafting Cutler--have been a good idea in hindsight? Cutler is a better football player than Whitner, and the Bills really did need a quarterback. From that standpoint, taking Cutler would have been the right thing to do. But if Trent Edwards looks as good as he did earlier in the season, we'll have gotten our quarterback problems squared away with just a third round pick. If Edwards becomes a top-10 quarterback, the Bills might be better off with Whitner + Edwards as opposed to Cutler + a SS drafted in the 3rd round.

Buffalo Hit by Terrorist Attack Associated Press 12/12/2008 In a recent car bombing, 4 people were killed and 17 wounded. The apparent target of the terrorist attack was a neighborhood cleanup effort. "We were cleaning up the streets of Buffalo," said one witness, "when suddenly I felt the ground shake under my feet. I was knocked backward by a blast, and broke my arm as I was driven to the ground. Fortunately I was one of the lucky ones." The explosion was caused by bombs placed in an unregistered truck parked alongside the road. "I saw a bearded, scruffy looking man drive up in this truck," said one witness. "But I didn't pay it much attention. He parked, mumbled an obscenity about Buffalo, threw a pop can out his window, and walked away." "That guy really did look disgruntled," said another witness, "He came right up to me and said, 'Don't I look like I could throw a football just as well as anyone? Don't I look like I'd be a faster runner than most other NFL quarterbacks?' How do you respond to something like that?" "When I first saw him," said another witness, "I thought, here is a poor guy who's obviously living in his truck. He can't even afford a razor. I offered him some change, but he refused. Then his truck exploded." After the explosion, an alert police officer began to chase the suspect on foot. The suspect made two separate attempts to throw fist size rocks at the policeman's head. While the suspect demonstrated amazing arm strength, his accuracy proved suspect, as the rocks sailed ten feet over the policeman's head. However, the policeman failed to catch the suspect, due to his very good foot speed. The Buffalo police have stated that they have clues to the suspect's identity, but have not elaborated further.

Maybe. I think that you'd want even your #2 to be able to see the whole field, not just his first read. On the other hand, Losman has a significantly better set of physical tools than your typical #2 (or even most #1s). Maybe the coaches felt his physical upside helped balance out his mental downside, especially with the market for backup quarterbacks being so thin. That would have been a mistake. The book on Losman is closed, but the book on Trent is still open. Let's see how Trent's story goes. The biggest J.P. critic? That would be me. Well . . . maybe not quite. And I do admit that he hasn't played up to the level of my (low) expectations. He'll probably wind up hanging on for two to three years as a third string player competing for a backup role. Maybe he'll even see the field again here or there, much like his comparison player (Kordell Stewart) did after he got to Chicago. If Losman sees the field for a few games, don't be surprised if he has a big game or two. A 40 yard touchdown pass or two to his new team's equivalent of Lee Evans. A few good runs. Maybe a roll out or two, followed by a bullet to some guy 20 yards downfield, near the sidelines. And maybe on the basis of those few games, his new team will keep him in a few games more. That's when they'll learn why Losman is currently a third string player in Buffalo.

It's not as rare as it used to be. In the past you had 28 teams in the league competing for six playoff spots per conference. Now there are 32 teams competing for those same six spots in each conference. With more competitors going after the same number of playoff spots, getting one of those six spots is tougher now than it used to be.

Right. Because Bill from NYC never blamed any of our problems on the offensive line. He always said, "use your highest draft picks on QBs, and all your problems will be solved. Do not address the offensive or defensive lines early in the draft, because this team has no problems other than Losman."

I can't argue with any of this. I'd like to see the Bills take a center in the first two rounds of the 2009 draft. Probably they'll go defense though, and wait until round 3 or 4 to address the center position.

Good summary, Bill. I've been pleasantly surprised by Fine thus far this year. As the Bills clearly have more significant needs elsewhere, they may be served by not drafting a TE early in 2009. As for Edwards, it was nice to see him get his confidence back. There were still some flaws he needs to correct, but for the most part he played a very solid football game. Any time your team puts up 54 points--even with the help of a few turnovers, and even against a flawed defense--you have to feel good about the way your quarterback played. A few more weeks like this, and he'll have done a lot to put those previous several games behind him. Over the last two weeks, I've had a hard time believing what my own two eyes told me was true. We've had an offensive line recently! There's been pass protection. There's been (gasp!) run blocking. I don't understand the reasons for this sudden, dramatic improvement, but I'll happily take it! Other than at center, this team may be able to use its early picks on non-OL positions. The DL comes to mind as an obvious area of need.