Orton's Arm

Rice was drafted in '85, and Joe Montana already had two Super Bowl rings by then.

Byrd

I agree that the guys manning the middle of the DL shouldn't be a couple of players who are on the wrong side of 30. Which is why I think a third might be a little high for Henderson. There was no way were were going to fill all our holes in one draft. Our best bet is to simply live with the holes we still have, and to address them in the 2010 draft. We need to be thinking about DTs, probably an OT, an OLB, and, possibly, a pass catching threat. That last is contingent on Steve Johnson and on our recently drafted TE. We also need to re-sign McGee, so that this front office doesn't blow yet another first rounder on a DB.

The Bills went 7-9 last year against a much softer schedule than the one we have this year. Our team significantly improved on draft day. But I expect it will take a while for our new offensive linemen to learn their new positions, the new blocking scheme, and to adjust to the NFL. I also expect Maybin to need time to adjust, as do most rookie DEs. If the rookies need time to adapt, if the Bills suffer a few key injuries, and if they get a few bad breaks along the way, this team could easily go 6-10 or even 5-11. Which in the long run wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, because we'd get a high draft pick, and probably a new coach. On the other hand, if the rookies play well, if guys like Owens and Hangartner immediately make high level contributions, if we avoid the injury bug, and if we get a few lucky breaks in close games, this team could go 9-7 or even 10-6. Regardless of how things work out for the upcoming season, the draft we just had makes me optimistic about this team's potential to achieve good things a few years from now.

They had us taking OLBs in the first two rounds and a safety in the third. Perhaps they felt that safety could be converted into an undersized OLB.

That's a good post, but with one exception--every guy on the football field is using fast twitch muscles more than slow twitch muscles. If a CB, for example, were to try to run a mile at the same speed that he runs a 40 yard dash, he'd wear out very fast. When you think about slow twitch muscles, think long distance runners. A player's time in a ten yard dash is all about how fast he accelerates. Fast acceleration is also important in a 40 yard dash, but a player's top speed plays an important role too.

You're probably right about the 2010 draft, unfortunately. On the other hand, Brandon did a much better job with his first draft than I was expecting. There has to be at least a chance of re-signing McGee, in which case I don't see us spending yet more high picks on DBs in next year's draft.

Now that's an excellent point!

Letting those CBs walk did two things: It caused the front office to burn a bunch of early picks on their replacements It freed up money under Ralph's budget for the Bills to use on free agents Did it make sense for us to give up those high draft picks to free up funds for free agent additions? Let's look at the free agents this front office has added: Melvin Fowler Peerless Price Langson Walker Derrick Dockery Robert Royal Spencer Johnson Kawika Mitchell (I've excluded free agents added this offseason, as it's too soon to evaluate their contribution to the team.) Other than Mitchell and Walker, there are no current Bills starters on that list. And each of the guys on that list was offered at least a solid contract; so collectively the above list represents a massive investment in free agents. An investment which has shown very little return. Is it worthwhile to constantly give up draft picks for players in the secondary, in order to free up the cash to make the above kinds of free agent acquisitions? Or would we be better off signing our own DBs to extensions--even if it means overpaying them--and using our draft picks on positions other than the secondary?

Here's my logic: Drafting those DBs--and especially Harris--will probably let us get rid of Florence. Florence is overpaid. Getting rid of his salary frees up room under Ralph's budget to give other players extensions. Every overly inflated salary we get rid of brings us closer to being able to keep Terrence McGee. If we keep McGee (a big if, I know), then that gets us out of using a first round pick on his replacement. I realize there are a lot of ifs in the above. There's no guarantee that Harris will push Florence off the roster. But far more importantly, there's absolutely no guarantee that the Bills will use any savings they create from getting rid of Florence to help fund an extension for McGee. So we're talking about a long shot here. On the other hand, late round picks are expected to be long shots. I can't over-emphasize how important it is to re-sign McGee. If he walks, this front office will use a first round pick on his replacement. That could easily represent 50% or more of our draft day value, especially if we're picking early in next year's draft. Letting McGee go first contract and out would set this franchise back by a good half a year, easily. If picking up CBs in the sixth and seventh round decreases the chance of losing McGee, even by a little, then it was a good--or at least justifiable--move.

Looks like someone in the Bills' front office failed to realize you were being sarcastic.

Normally I'm not a big fan of this front office's overemphasis on the secondary. But I'm looking on the bright side here. The Bills had two picks in the first, and two in the second. They used those picks on a lineman, another lineman, a DB, and a lineman. That's not too shabby! And FS really was a legitimate need. It isn't the need I would have filled with that pick, but it should definitely help the team. FS was clearly our secondary's weak link; a problem which Byrd should eliminate. Add in the improvement to our pass rush that Maybin should bring, and our pass defense just got a lot better. There are still holes on this team. We need an OLB and a TE, and I'm not sure the guys we took in the later rounds will provide long-term answers at those positions. I have no idea what we're doing at LT; having heard various posters propose Walker, Butler, Levitre, Chambers, and Bell as our next LT. I saw an article recently about Mike Williams attempting to return to the NFL . . . We also could use help at DT and another DE. While there's still room for improvement, this team filled a lot of holes on draft day. And look on the bright side with the Byrd pick: it's much better for the Bills to deal with the hole at FS in the second round, than it would have been at, say, 8th overall.

Another factor to consider is whether the front office reached for players based on need. I don't see any Donte Whitner-style reaches in this year's draft. And that's a very good thing!

At least initially, I envision Maybin as a pass rush specialist. Pass rush specialists fill an area of vital need, especially given that: a) The Tampa-2 lives and dies by the pass rush of its front four, and b) Last season, the biggest single weakness of our defense was its inability to generate a pass rush on third down. The concept of an "every down" defensive lineman is a myth--at least in this defense. The Bills rotate defensive linemen to keep them fresh. So the fact that Maybin may only play about 1/3 of the time to start with should be compared to the 60% or 65% of the time some other guys on this defense are playing--not the 100% of the time that some completely imaginary defensive lineman might have played. Can Maybin get sacks against 330 pound offensive tackles? Obviously, at his current weight, he isn't going to get many sacks by trying to overpower guys like that. When smaller defensive ends achieve pass rushing success, it's typically by using their quickness and speed. Maybin has exceptionally good quickness, and good to very good speed. A player who can rush the passer can always bulk up to become a better run stopper. But a guy who can stop the run typically can't "athleticism up" to become a good pass rusher. Assuming Maybin can add 15 pounds to his frame, while retaining the quickness which makes him a good pass rusher, he'd become a good, all-round DE for all situations, not just third down.

I can. Maybin had 12 sacks last season. Ayers had, what, two? And IIRC, there were questions about Orakpo's motivation. On the other hand, I've heard nothing but good things about Maybin's motivation, work ethic, and passion for the game of football. That motivation does two things: 1) it reduces the likelihood of him becoming a bust, thus making this a safer pick. 2) It increases the chance he'll be a game changer/very good player. They say that Jerry Rice, for instance, worked harder than an undrafted rookie free agent trying to make the final roster. Passion and greatness go together (though passion alone is, of course, not a sufficient condition for achieving greatness). With players like Raji and Curry off the board by the time the Bills picked, there weren't too many opportunities to get an obvious "wow!" player. Maybin probably has as good a chance as anyone available at #11 to be that wow player. I'm not completely sold on him, but I don't see anyone else who was obviously better. Overall, I think this was an intelligent decision by the Bills' front office, and I look forward to Maybin giving us a much-needed boost to our pass rush.

Scouts.com had Maybin rated as the sixth best player in the draft, and I've heard good things about his quickness, athleticism, and ability to rush the passer. Even more importantly, I've heard nothing but positives about his passion and work ethic. I'm becoming cautiously optimistic about this pick.

At least they waited until the second round to get started on the secondary. That's better than I expected from this front office.

They're also a side with our free agents, whom they overpay. If it wasn't for them, maybe we could re-sign more of those guys.

Sweet! That's one guy I didn't want anyway, taken off the board.

I'm not happy about that. The fewer OTs on the board when the Bills pick, the more likely we are to reach for a lesser OT based on need. Not that this team would ever reach for a player based on need.

Amen!

If we take Ayers, then in the future, disappointing DEs will be compared with three Bills players.

I agree that Keith Ellison isn't the answer at OLB. But I think that a team with as many holes as the Bills needs to set priorities. Protecting the passer, and generating a good pass rush with the front four, should take precedence over all else. If the Bills were solid in those two areas, I would have no problem with using a very high draft pick on an OLB. I also think that a good pass catching TE should be very high on the priority list. Add a couple good offensive linemen and a very good TE, and the Bills' offense could become similar to the offense the Giants had when they beat the Bills 20-19 in the Super Bowl. I think that you're over-estimating the importance of Terrell Owens. First and foremost, he's only here for a season. Even if he delivers the single best season by an NFL WR ever, nothing he does will help us beyond 2009. Secondly, Terrell Owens is getting on in years. Older players typically fade a little in the second half of the season, because their bodies don't recover as well from the pounding as they once did. Thirdly, some of the teams for which Owens has played in the past were--at least before he joined--a good WR away from having solid offensive units. The Eagles, for example, had a good offensive line in place, had good players at QB and RB, and just needed a dominant WR to make it all come together. You could make the same argument about the Cowboys. While their offensive line wasn't perfect, it was a lot better than the line the Bills could put on the field if the season were to start today. A team needs a good--or at least decent--offensive line to get maximum benefit from Owens. Fourth, it's rare for rookie players to contribute much, unless they're DBs, RBs, or LBs. The draft should be about building the best team you can for the long haul, not about maximizing players' rookie year contributions. And in the long haul, the Bills are going to need an infusion of talent on offense, no matter how well Owens might play this season. And fifth, it's not like the Bills are going to go very far in the playoffs this season anyway, and nothing the Bills do in the upcoming draft is going to change that. But what they can do is use the upcoming draft to help build the foundation for a dominant season next year.

I agree with a lot of what you've written. But I disagree with some of your conclusions. As you point out, the Bills have some weapons on offense. But to get maximum use out of those weapons, the Bills are going to need a good offensive line. Terrell Owens isn't going to be of much use if Trent spends the game lying on his back! Toward that end, I'd like to see the Bills take a guy with left tackle potential very early, and an offensive guard type guy somewhere between #28 and their 3rd round pick. A good, pass catching TE would also help a lot, and would give Edwards the outlet receiver that any young quarterback (and especially this young quarterback) craves. If you were to add two good offensive linemen and a pass catching TE, this offense would be quite solid. And if you don't add them, the offense might be almost as ineffectual as it was last season. The Bills' defense is most in need of pass rushing linemen. Even more than other defenses, the Tampa-2 lives and dies by getting good pressure from the front four. If there's a chance to get a top tier defensive lineman, such as Raji, the Bills should take it. The hole at OLB, while bothersome, is less important than our needs on both lines. The only way I'd consider an OLB is if I felt I was going to get a substantially better football player than what I could have had by drafting a lineman with that pick. The Bills are at least two good drafts away from being a serious threat to advance deep into the postseason. Rather than try to fill all their holes this year, they should pick a few holes to fill in, and leave the rest for next year. For example, suppose they were to do the following: - trade away their second round pick to move up from #11. Then draft the best available lineman--either an OT or Raji - Use the #28 pick on Mack (if he's still around), or on some other interior offensive lineman, or on a TE - Then use your third round pick on either an OLB or a TE That's only two needs that are filled, or three if the third round pick works out. But--if all goes according to plan--you've gotten two very solid football players, including an elite player at a key position (either Raji or the OT). Then in 2010, you once again use your first pick in the draft on a lineman--whether offensive or defensive. The second round pick would probably go to OLB or TE--depending on what you did in 2009. Any nagging, little holes your team had could be addressed either with later round picks or free agents. In year 3 of this plan, you'd once again use a first round pick on a lineman--probably a defensive lineman. Assuming your picks are working out as they should, and assuming you've been trading into draft positions where a lineman really is the best player available, this team is going to become strong on both lines. The defensive line will have received two first round picks, the offensive line will have gotten a first round pick and another pick in the late first or second round. The offensive identity will be of a team that's good at long, many-play drives. The kind of drives which kill defenses by a thousand small cuts. The combination of a good line plus good RBs will lead to a good running game. Good pass protection, plus a number of good options (including the pass catching TE) will lead to a passing game that can move the chains time after time. The team's defensive identity will start with its ability to create very good pressure on QBs from its front four. That pass rush, in conjunction with the Bills' solid secondary, will make it very difficult for teams to succeed with their passing games. The team may have a little more trouble defeating rushing attacks, but the stout defensive line, together with guys like Poz, should keep things under control.

An excellent point. Do you think the Bills will go with a safety at #11 and a CB at #28? Or do you think they'll grab the CB first, and wait until #28 for the safety? Sorry if the above sounds a bit cynical. In fairness, they won't necessarily use every first round pick on a DB. There's always the chance they'll take a RB, or the next John McCargo.