DrDawkinstein
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Posts posted by DrDawkinstein
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21 hours ago, B-Man said:
Boy when your team captain asks for a trade.................
I figured he was just speed running the negotiation process coming off his rookie deal since we all know Mike Brown doesnt pay guaranteed money. But I looked it up and he's actually in year 2 of his 2nd contract!
So he just wants out of the building altogether
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31 minutes ago, NoSaint said:
Poyer will really bring the flash
Flashing his AARP card to get a discount on his turkey burger maybe
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3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:
Fair points.
But I guess even though I'm not a mathematician, I'm a game theorist at heart because I see the future as a bunch of probabilities with no certainty at all.
With 32 teams in the league, the average NFL team has a 3% chance of winning a Lombardi. I think with McD and Josh (and Beane's flawed rosters), we have about a 10% chance each season. Better than most teams, not as good as KC's. That means we have a 65% chance of winning at least one trophy over the next ten years.
But let's say the fans get their wish and McD is fired. I think there's only about a 10% chance that Pegs hires someone better than McD. Historically, teams usually get worse after firing a winning head coach. And Pegs track record at hiring coaches (just look at the Sabres) isn't good. Finally, most proven head coaches are either gainfully employed or retired. Hiring a coordinator to be our HC, or a college HC, is a real roll of the dice.
I think our odds are better with McD.
Couple of things...
If you think our chances each season with McD/Josh are 10%, how much of that is just Josh? What would our chances be with McD and an average QB? Now what are our chances with an average HC and Josh? I'd think it's about 1-3% with McD/QB, and ~7% with HC/Josh.
Additionally, Pegs track record with the Sabres is completely irrelevant when it comes to running the Bills. He has two completely different approaches between the teams. He thinks he's a hockey guy. Thats how he got into this whole sports business to begin with. He has a very active role in the Sabres hirings. With the Bills and NFL, he knows he's in over his head. HE didnt find McD, a consulting firm he hired did. He would hire that same consulting firm.
I do agree with your last point, in that Terry's inaction and refusal to see the truth after 13 seconds and other debacles has cost us chances at Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and Mike Vrabel, and I dont have any other ideas left. But as I've said numerous times here before, almost none of us knew of Sean McDermott back in December 2016, so who knows...
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Multiple arrests today. Maybe they arent done...
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5 minutes ago, Gregg said:
Wilson is in his prime and an elite level receiver. Flacco is nearing the end of his career. I don't know if there has ever been a trade within the division for a player as good as Wilson is. The Jets would ask for a lot as the Bills would have to pay more than say an NFC team or an AFC team outside the division.
Oh I dont disagree, just taking the chance to knock the Jets and the fact they may be just dumb enough to do it.
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11 minutes ago, Gregg said:
I would love it if the Bills could trade for Garrett Wilson but that isn't happening for the same reason the Dolphins won't trade Waddle here.
You'd think so, but the Browns just traded Flacco in the division and the Jets arent much better managed than the Browns so...
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4 minutes ago, boyst said:
OBJ was never in my interests. Watkins I drank the Kool-Aid.
I was hesitant on Watkins though because I'm too old school. 6'+, 200lbs WRs are a minimum for me as a boundary wr. You can't coach size. Speed they say can't be coached but playing speed is different than track speed and you can work with speed development and coach speed!
Yeah, OBJ probably wouldve been a PITA in Buffalo, but I was just pointing out missing on talent. No reason to trade up with all that other talent at the position sitting there.
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8 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:
If you change your head coach, you're probably also changing most of the coaching staff. And you're probably changing either the offensive playbook & scheme, or the defensive playbook & scheme, or both. So I do think it's pretty much a binary choice: Keep McD or blow it up.
Saying firing a head works sometimes is arguing by anecdote and isn't valid. I can give you other anecdotes. For example, after the 49ers fired Harbaugh, they collapsed under Tomsula.
11 head coaches with winning records were fired during the SB era. Only 2 of the teams involved posted a better record in the first two full seasons after the firing. Only 1 team won a SB within 3 years. Firing a winning head coach isn't generally speaking a good idea.
Coach | Team | Record at Firing | Pre-Firing Win % | Post-Firing Win % | Super Bowl Win
----------------------- |-------------- |------------------|------------------|-------------------|----------------
Tony Dungy | Buccaneers | 54–42 (.563) | .563 | .625 | ✅ Yes (2002)
Marty Schottenheimer | Chargers | 47–33 (.588) | .588 | .563 | ❌ No
Jim Harbaugh | 49ers | 44–19–1 (.695) | .695 | .313 | ❌ No
Lovie Smith | Bears | 81–63 (.563) | .563 | .500 | ❌ No
Mike McCarthy | Packers | 125–77–2 (.618) | .618 | .625 | ❌ No
Mike Shanahan | Broncos | 138–86 (.616) | .616 | .438 | ❌ No
Tom Coughlin | Giants | 102–90 (.531) | .531 | .375 | ❌ No
Brian Billick | Ravens | 80–64 (.556) | .556 | .500 | ❌ No
Wade Phillips | Cowboys | 34–22 (.607) | .607 | .500 | ❌ No
Mike Smith | Falcons | 66–46 (.589) | .589 | .438 | ❌ No
Jeff Fisher | Titans | 142–120 (.542) | .542 | .438 | ❌ NoWe've already changed the Offensive scheme a few times in McD's tenure, and 3 times with Josh, so probably not a big deal at this point. We have the OL, we have the QB, we have the RB. Just need some WRs and better playcalling.
And a wholesale Defensive scheme change is exactly what I'm hoping for. So you're only selling me further on it.
You're also missing the recent Philadelphia Eagles from your list because your criteria is too narrow. Pederson was fired after technically a losing record, keeping them off the list, but that record was mostly due to injuries and QB changes. Pederson was fired shortly after winning a SB and with a good roster, and Siriani stepped right in and took them right back to the top of the mountain.
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11 hours ago, boyst said:
Sammy watkins over Michael Evans...
Sammy Watkins over:
Khalil Mack
Mike Evans
Odell Beckham Jr
Aaron Donald
Davante Adams
(and for what it's worth, we picked Cyrus Kouandjio over Davante Adams too)
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Are these HC/QB combos with most games and no SB?
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10. Tackle. Like for real tackle.
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"Keep it close and hope Josh pulls a rabbit out in the end"
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1 hour ago, GerstAusGosheim said:
Or maybe the coaching sucks. He was the best nickel in the league 2 years ago when Leslie was here.
That fact he was 27 at the time and now almost 30 is the bigger difference.
1 hour ago, Ray Finkel said:I love that idea!
Bills fans want to move EVERYONE to safety. Tre White, Rasul Douglas, now Taron. Just get a Safety that can play Safety.
He's not worth $11M at Safety next year either
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8 minutes ago, Einstein said:
Agreed. It helps us but also limits us.
I wouldn't mind McD hiring a vet D coordinator and completely handing over duties to him.
Schwartz may be fired if the Browns have another 6-10 record this year. I would hire him immediately.I'd love to see that, but I think the only way we move away from this defense is moving away from McDermott.
We shouldve brought in Ulbricht. Maybe this year will open McD's eyes, but I'm not holding my breath.
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1 minute ago, LabattBlue said:
Not to nitpick, but 2026 dead cap hit of 7.75 and 2027 dead cap hit of 5.45.
"Less than his $11M salary" is what I was going for. But I do appreciate accuracy
I dont think 2027 matters much because we cant (or shouldnt) absorb an even higher cost for him next year than this year. But good info, thanks!
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He's making $8M this year, set to make $11M next year but his dead cap next year would be $7M. So yeah. Goner.
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Cant disagree. I've been hoping Jordan Hancock would step up into that role, and maybe that's what they're saving him for.
Love Taron, but father time is undefeated, and you have to be super athletic to be a good NCB.
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2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Given Stephen Ross' history, I wouldn't be surprised if his plan is to leave McDaniel in place all year to maximize the tank. Interim coaches occasionally give their team a bump. I think he is gunning for the #1 pick.
Agreed. McDaniel and Grier will both be fired after the season, but not any earlier.
They're stuck with Tua for one more year, and currently are the only team with less cap space than the Bills. So tanking this year and getting the best picks possible is the only option for giving the new regime any hope, even with a grace year.
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Poll results need to be set as Public so we can shame all 17 posters who voted Yes.
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18 minutes ago, Einstein said:
yes this is literal worst case scenarioFor a number of reasons. Not only is it the toughest path, but it would be a pathetic result after coming into the season favored in every game and having an easy schedule. I know pre-season predictions arent worth much, but come on...
Going from odds on Super Bowl favorite to letting Pats win the Division and a likely early playoff exit, without any injuries to Josh Allen... fire up the GoFundMe for the Fire McBeane billboard!
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Chiefs are back and might not lose 3 more the rest of the way. Pats are on fire with Vrabel.
Could end up:
1. Colts
2. Chiefs
3. Pats
4. Steelers
5. Chargers
6. Bills
7. Broncos
This is way worse than the current/OP scenario
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7 hours ago, Einstein said:
what is your worst case scenario for our playoff matchups?
At this point its all pretty close imo. I have confidence in Josh and the boys no matter who we're playing. And I'm as equally doubtful against anyone knowing our coaches will botch it at some point. Broncos and Pats at home is about as good as it will get.
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6 minutes ago, Einstein said:
Youre describing the normal playoff scenario where we lose. Home in the second round to a team we lost to previously. And then facing the Chiefs, where we always lose.We're going to have to beat good teams to make and win the Super Bowl. Cant wait for a year where a meteor strikes and we're just left with us, the Browns, and the Jets.
Another chance for McD to get it done. Or not and prove a lot of us right. (I'd rather he just get it done, but...)
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10 hours ago, Einstein said:
It just launched and will be available the rest of the season (if it’s like past years).
Kinda hate the current prediction.
I'd take this.
Broncos 1st round, Patriots 2nd round, Chiefs at home 3rd round. Not too bad.
Jags listening to trade calls for Brian Thomas
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Think I'd rather get LB Logan Wilson from the Bengals and move to a true 4-3.