Dwight Drane

Now there's a shock! Making the "loans" permanent. I laugh at some of the regulatory things that were issues before this. It makes the SEC look like a cop writing up a ticket for jaywalking as there is a guy shooting people across the street.

Speak of the Devil........here's #4 on the year. Going...Going.......

I've been thinking along those lines all along. The Bills know fans travel for the Miami game every year, and I feel they gave up that game knowingly in order to turn the game into a tourist weekend. Remember when the Sabres had a waiting list of close to 10,000 for season tickets? When the Sabres asked for a few bucks to save your place in line and to get some other perks, the list dwindled down to 500. And this was before they became bad again. Use that 5% output and only 9,000 seats will sell to those signed up. My guess is that the tickets with $65 and $85 values will go on Ebay for $75-100 or so, and the $250 tickets will be going for $125-150 at best. If season ticket holders only bought tickets to scalp and don't plan on going, it can turn into a real disaster. Should be interesting.

You Da Man! Thanks for playing also! I'm not as worried about the autos as the airlines. That may be a sector where Government participation is welcomed. I'll fly in an airforce bomber out of Niagara Falls if it means getting to my destination on time.

Good find.....I almost choked on this line: "The Central Intelligence Agency’s chief cyber-security officer, Tom Donahue" People don't seem to want to see the big connect between Russia, China and Iran. The US is at the financial mercy of China and the Middle East right now. Meanwhile these three have been swapping arms, oil and goodies for a while. As much as Iraq looks to be needless, I think (hope) our leaders are thinking 3 steps ahead with that move. Between Iran, China, Russia, Israel + borders, Hugo Chavez making moves on Columbia, etc.....the vultures are starting to circle, bigtime. The US is going to get tested like it never has been for this current generation.

If it was just that, fine. But you dismissed my warnings at the begining of the year. I don't have a problem with your point of view. I'm happy to see educated debate on the forum. We went through the Bear thing, and my opposition to the deal wasn't that it happened, but how they timed it to happen before they opened their window hours later. Bear was probably so bad that it would be embarassing to open the window to them and have them still go under. They managed to save Lehman Bros for the time being. My focus now would be, do you believe the Fed should do the same thing for the airline and auto industries? Now this is where we get to the point that it isn't just counterparty risk involved. It is a point where the holdings themselves can bring down some big names. Sorry if it looks like I'm riding you or anyone else. You are correct, it isn't black and white. I'm just saying, there isn't a textbook or regulation to fluff off what is going on either. All the parts of the entire financial world don't add up in a logical fashion right now, so the debate in my opinion should be focused on where to look for things to smooth out. I guess I am just trying to see what we should label the current situation. I would call it critical but stable. I get the feel you would call it fair or even good. A happy medium would be serious, and at least on March 17 it was DOA, shocked with paddles and adrenaline, and called critical for a few weeks.

And this is why I rant. Just because we went over the first 2 hills on the rollercoaster, don't assume those were the biggest or the last. The Fed is telling small and regional banks to sell their underperforming stuff now because they are going to come and whack the values soon. The FDIC has been floating more stuff the past few months than what has ever been seen in this era. I just feel it is faulty to make people think everything is fine and enjoy your way of life. The middle class that overextended themselves are, and will be feeling a big crunch. Once this "imaginary inflation" really kicks in, the lower middle and poor are going to take it too, and already are to some extent. I don't mind if someone has the opinion that we are free and clear, just don't smugly state it as fact. I don't know for certainty what will happen, but at least I am telling you how I am preparing. If someone is nice enough to flash their brights at you coming the other way on the highway, doesn't it make sense to at least slow down for 30 seconds to be sure a cop isn't there waiting for you? Hey, everything may turn out swell. I'm going to rely on my eyes, brain and gut though.

I'm not complaining about Bear anymore. I gave you the point. The Fed stepped in, it's a new ballgame, life goes on. There are consequences for the new ballgame. Wow, I guess I was comical and overreacting. Everything is so peachy out there. I wonder what people are going to say when the government has to take the airline industry onto it's books? That will be ok though, because then they'll own a bunch of shiny airplanes! What a deal for the Fed! Or how about GM + Ford? Countrywide? I guess I will just have to assume GG works for the government or is involved in teaching. Since I am so wrong about everything else, maybe he is a drummer in a rock band. By the way, I'm not telling people what to do with their money. It's my opinion. This is an opinion board from what I can make of it. If I say Trent Edwards is lightyears ahead of Losman as a QB, I assume someone will ask me why. If I don't agree with the coaches, I can say what I expect to happen because of the decision they made, and we can look back in time and judge if my opinion is worthy to be listened to on a regular basis. Now GG is an intelligent guy, but I feel as if he is giving us program speak. It really doesn't matter....who reads this board, 500 people or so? I just feel as if I'm looking at the Mike Schoop of economic gurus in GG.

I'm not beating my chest....you have yet to give an opinion on what people should do with their money or assets. You defend the Fed for "saving the system", yet do you trust the system enough to put your money in? For those of us arguing that the move by the Fed was the beginning of the end of free markets as we know it, I gave specific examples of what I would do with my money in March because I didn't believe everything was ok. So far, it has looked good. You had no problem telling me that I was overreacting back in January when I said some major banks were going to close down. You had no problem making fun of me when Lehman Bros went from 38 to 45. I assume you work for the government in some capacity or are in academia, because you have yet to identify yourself from what I can tell. I don't mind you taking the view that everything is fine and dandy. I mind when you belittle others, yet have failed to offer any confidence in your view through action. Great, the banks didn't shut down for good on St. Patricks Day. That doesn't mean that they won't shut for good on Halloween, or next Easter. It also doesn't mean that a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas won't be $6 by December. To try and say the Fed isn't printing money, they are swapping assets, shows the textbook defense you are taking. Sure, the Fed didn't GIVE me $30 million, they swapped me $30 million in return for my baseball card collection. Hey, those 50 Mark McGwire rookie cards I have are worth $250 each according to the priceguide I have in front of me. The Fed got a deal!

After looking at the picture of the guy, the 4 foot thing was probably an 8 year old boy he locked up in the bedroom and is using the alien defense as an insanity plea.

Thanks for playing! I think everyone has a right not to discuss their personal investments, but there are certain folk who like to dismiss the views of others yet never put themselves on the line. That's who I am calling out. Instead of having an arguement over textbook definitions, I would like to know what people would do with their cash and assets today. You don't have to name names. I can see why your Brother-in-law is down. They have been trying to stave off their own crisis for the past 9 months with building sales, secondary offerings, wholesale offerings of performing debt in order to raise cash....it looks bad. Options in general can be a crap shoot and are usually bad for the buyer, but it is such a unique time in history that I feel fine with holding more options than I would in a steady market. Citi has admitted they are too big. I think if we could see the off-balance sheet holdings of a few of these places, this discussion wouldn't be as heated. I understand the alternative energy plays because that is where the money is going. I just feel that they are like biotechs a few decades ago where 9 of 10 will go under, and you will get 1 bought out for a big gain. You need a few generations of that to happen before we end up with our Pfizers. I like the fact that people want to discuss this in general, but instead of arguing legistics back and forth, the easiest way to see who is right in the long run is to put some plays out there.

Instead of calling each other names, why don't some of the people here say what they would do with their money NOW! I went on record after Bear went down on what I would do. I went long big on oil + gold, shorted financials, and went into railroads for the first time in my life. I was laughed at by a few in this discussion, yet they never made it a point to go on the record and say what they would do. Recently I doubled down on gold as it hit the $860s, and sold 70% of my oil stocks last week. I was out of the railroads a few weeks ago figuring they would have to give some back, but they are on a rocketship. More than anything, that tells me the oil "situation" is more than just speculators playing games. Real money is looking for real solutions, and rail makes much more sense than the next bubble which is Green Goods. I got nailed on some Lehman puts because of the Fed coming in with their "non inflationary asset swap" , but still hold Citibank puts@15 for both July and January. I still would keep my assets away from Lehman as they may eventually turn into Bear V.2.0 On a personal level, I would start to move on home purchases in areas that are fairly stable (i.e. Buffalo), because the risk of price drop vs the gain of locking in low fixed rates is about to swing in my opinion. If you have good credit, take advantage. Heck, if you have a big freezer, throw some sausage and steak in that puppy as I have a funny feeling food is just as good of an investment as anything at this point. Once the trucks stay in the garage and China calls in loans, all bets are off. Besides the obvious discussion at hand, there are too many geopolitical issues and plain old natural disasters in the mix for the foot of this monster to take up from our collective throat. Let's see what we've got from those I have heard defend for months, but have yet come to the table with an original idea.

Cool. Those seats are the best in the house when it comes to understanding what is going on down on the field. You can see where the ball should go, feel blitzes, etc.

The thing I would like to hear about is if his delivery has changed since he added all that muscle mass up in his lats and neck. I would think he has to deliver on a slightly different angle this year to compensate. I don't know how long that takes to adjust, but I would think it could be an early issue.

I agree with your original points here which is why I chimed in. Only the original earthquake has been dealt with and it is too early to decide if that was a foreshock, or we are about to feel aftershocks. The Fed is doing it's job by handing out lifevests on the Titanic, but it looks like the 1st class cabin gets them first. There is a chance the whole ship still goes down, and the mainstream media has been acting like all is well. We're taking on water from a few different points now, so I don't know how much the Fed's actions will help in the long run.

Right...but you have just verified East Brady's view. Keep the banks on the in afloat as you deflate assets held by the middle and lower class of both residents and financial+banking firms until they are forced to "spit them all up" and just as the peak of the asset crisis flips, you hyperinflate so everyone that was on the sidelines and is newly on the sidelines can no longer afford to be owners. The classic smash and grab so to speak. Round 2 is knocking on the door. Feds are going to force more things to be marked to market now that the cronies are "secure". They have done a good job preventing a rise in gold by doubling the margin requirements to hold it, yet when we last talked about the situation on the week of March 17, gold is flat even with the roadblocks thrown in, oil is up 30%, and all the financial names we talked about are flat or down (Lehman, Citi, Wamu....Investment,mix,retail). And that is after the hundreds of billions in rescue funding. I'm assuming the government will nationalize the Airline Industry, but what about the Auto Industry, or continued farm aid? You don't think that has something to do with the behavior of the $ and oil? I know you take the company line, but I think we are on the carnival ride for good now, and what started as a feel good rush is going to leave us all puking on each other.

Delish!

I seriously doubt she is an Islamic fundamentalist supporter as she sounds like a little old Palm Beach Jewish lady hopped up on meth and holding a megaphone.

What I mean by 'out of jack", is that they had over half a trillion in "cash securities" on their own balance sheet that have been swapped with the investment banks for worthless paper. If they want to keep doing that, they have to print for their own account, although I am sure they have been doing so behind the scenes without telling anyone since they said it was their job to stop a disaster. You are correct, they can't make lenders lend or borrowers spend, so what is happening is that instead of lending, banks are holding their new found cash so they don't go under. This forces others that need a loan or want to refinance on to the sidelines or the foreclosure pit, thus devaluating mortgage securities even more and forcing more insolvency. If the Fed continues to delever the entire system, you might be left with lower prices on housing and other secured assets, but the reality is that everything else over time is going to digest that constant inflow of cash and you will see it in higher real prices of oil, thus leading to shipping, food etc. We don't make enough crap to warrant a long term weak dollar, and we can't count on Asia and the Arabs to keep bailing us out because they may pull the plug on us. I've always compared it to kissing your boss' rear even though you don't like the guy. After all those years of kissing his but, if it looks like he might be on the outs, you help kick him out the door. China smells blood. Since when is a communist country worried about starving their own people anyway? In the perfect storm that has been created, there is a good chance you will see 10% interest rates, $5.00 gas, and higher unemployment all as people keep losing houses and other goodies. If you are a little old lady sitting on a pile of cash, go buy yourself a boat, a Hummer and a summer home, because almost nobody else can afford to right now.

Sure, there is a trading premium in there now, but not much. They started to push up distant contracts the past few weeks. Gasoline is trading at a discount to oil though. At $137.50 is $5 gasoline at the pumps, and everything just hit $4. There is lag, but even if oil settles in at about $110, that still means $4 gas for a while. Supply is shrinking, but that's no big news. There could be a war premium with half the US Navy hanging out in the Middle East, but the big story is the dollar. China and Oil Central now have us on restricted credit. The question is whether or not they decide to pull the rug on the US all together. I really feel oil is just leading the pending doom for our $$$. Credit is tight and is going to get worse. The Fed is about to let a bunch of smaller and regional banks go under pretty soon because they themselves are out of jack. They can reload, but the question then becomes do we go to Jimmy Carter interest rates, or wheelbarrow to buy a loaf of bread interest rates. If you've got access to cheap fixed credit, now is the time to grab it. Phase 2 of this mess should kick off by the end of summer. The Fed has done everything to delay it. They've doubled the requirements for buying gold on margin, they have taken in over a half trillion of pretty much worthless debt from the big houses, and the Feds have allowed securities to be marked at "whatever you are comfortable with". That isn't going to last. Then you get the circlejerk of higher cost for shipping and rising food prices along with grain shortage, and everyone is going to get jammed. It looks like the midwest US is getting nailed with these storms and won't be able to make corn season. I hope everyone likes tofu!

I read the author and clicked off. That guy is disgusting. He was on Bill Mahr when Tony Snow was on there, and Snow was out of his seat and ready to pummel the snot out of him. I take most of liberal media with a grain of salt and actually prefer to watch MSNBC to Fox, but this guy was the posterboy for liberal flaiming BS. I am not a big fan of Hagee or any church movements that play for power and cash, (almost all), but you just need to light this clown's crap up with a Zippo without giving it a second look. I swear I would have taken him out for Snow that night. By the way....San Antonio has more than one BBQ joint! If anybody wants a good place to order from, New Braunfels Smokehouse is awesome. Top notch stuff and it's shipped cold to your front door. And no I don't own any part of it!

I'm excited to see Simpson back with him. I started to get nervous that he wasn't healed up with the safety talk in March, but things look good. I think we are going to have one of the hardest hitting DB groups out there. If guys like Stroud, Mitchell and Poz can shave a half a second off of pocket time for the opposing QB, then we will see some national recognition for Whitner and crew this year. It's about time for a new catchy Bills poster to come along. I'm sick of seeing Fred Smerlas' grease covered arms in camo at the local bar. Let's knock some receivers out and maybe get a Donte's Inferno poster going with the DBs.

That, and the Mr. Skin server is linked right into the television. Whitner clearly took over as the leader of this team during last year. He has some of the same intense honesty and reflection as Darryl Talley used to have, but he is doing it early and often. Kelsay has the brains and will talk, but not the talent.

Alright.....for anyone that remembers this classic....(sort of NSFW) Green Lightning Check out the video of the debut, which looks to feature the mayor. This is just classic.

Amen. Even if you don't agree with the guy, you know he believes what he is telling you. Almost any national politician is so full of BS that you don't even know where to start in figuring out their honesty. If the White House and Congress was filled with Jimmy Griffins, sure, Haliburton or his equivilent of it would still get thrown sweet contracts...but I bet you anything we would have been in, and out of the Middle East by now.....but we wouldn't be seeing anymore videos of Osama bin Laden.