Even if Cincy pulls off the upset, it's not that big of a deal. Buffalo still has to beat them, anyway, so that game means little to me. In fact, I'd be happy to see them pull off the upset and may actually be rooting for it. Regardless, that game doesn't matter, mathematically speaking.
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Uhhhh if Cincy loses they are 6-7 and basically out of contention. It does matter. 9-7 will not get you in.