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Everything posted by bills_fan
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Historical comparisons are iffy at best since they did not have widespread and proliferated credit card use. Credit=money, especially with the way many Americans have used it. Which is why there is a good argument that the traditional money measures (M1, M2, M3) are ineffective since they do not measure credit available. If your credit line gets cut by $10k, it is, in effect, decresing the money supply by $10k. Many credit lines have been shrunk. Add to that the "value" of homes that are getting destoyed and the foreign demand for dollars and I am not seeing inflation here anytime soon. The "money" the Fed is "printing" is only partially offsetting the loss of credit.
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Not seeing inflation any time real soon. I define inflation as "An increase in the money supply chasing goods and services." "Money supply" includes cash and credit (household and business). The "chasing" refers to the concept of velocity of money. The supply of cash is certainly increasing, but at a much smaller rate than credit is being destroyed (both for households and businesses). On the other side the supply of available goods and services is net decreasing and will accelerate as the commercial real estate disaster unfolds. Net economic activity (the "chasing") is way down and will continue to be down for a while. I really don't think inflation will be much of a problem over the next 12-18 months. Of course, you may see commodity spikes such as in oil, but that is not indicative of widespread inflation.
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Uh-oh, big bond market dislocation today
bills_fan replied to bills_fan's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Interesting commentary on yesterday's bond market mess and what it meant for home mortgages. http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/05/28/...mortgage-rates/ -
Uh-oh, big bond market dislocation today
bills_fan replied to bills_fan's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Yep. But, ultimately I think Bernanke will back off, stop the QE and allow the rates to rise (thereby ensuring the US can actually sell gov't debt to investors) rather than print cash, buy every bid in the whole issue and become Zimbabwe and unable to fund the government. Yes, it will be Depression II (in the 1930s the Fed raised interest rates, choking off all growth), but it is better than the alternative. The next FOMC meeting will be fascinating. -
Boom. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archive...-ALL-OF-IT.html And just when rates are jumping, we head into this disaster. Time to get short.
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Go Hoosiers!!! I love this guy, watch this video. Just perfect! http://www.businessinsider.com/indiana-pen...-torture-2009-5
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Can any employee request a secret ballot at anytime? So, if a group of employees wants to organize a union at a particular business, and one employee requests secret ballots, then is the entire process subject to secret ballots?
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I would not characterize this as a "scare tactic," just good business. You have to price the risk of what happened in Chrysler into the return on the debt. I don't like it because it overturns the secret ballots. I have no problem coming up with additional protections from employer harassment for employees that want to unionize. But to take away the secret ballots...not so much. That puts employee against employee and I don't see that as fair.
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And no loans for you!! Guess the Obama administration may want to re-think the a$$ raping it just gave to Chrysler senior debtholders... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
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Extended Warranty Protection for cars
bills_fan replied to bills_fan's topic in Off the Wall Archives
Thanks for the feedback guys. Not having experience in this area, its nice to hear different views. -
Extended Warranty Protection for cars
bills_fan replied to bills_fan's topic in Off the Wall Archives
Thanks. I will look into something by Zurich. It did seem like a lot of money for a warranty. -
Agreed, but unfortunately, its not that simple. Both parties are beholden to big union interests and the minority parties are permitted to cross-endorse, which they often do. You have limited choices which often feel like the lesser of two evils.
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Extended Warranty Protection for cars
bills_fan replied to bills_fan's topic in Off the Wall Archives
I confess to ignorance on the subject. I really have no idea what it would cost to fix something like that. -
My wife used to do temp work over the summers. She made pretty good money. Also, I have many friends/acquaintances in the bar/restaurant business in Buffalo. Not sure if she is old enough, has any experience or wants to do that type of work, but they always hire xtra in the summer as business picks up. I can ask around if you'd like.
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I drive a 2005 Jeep Wrangler and received a notice about extending the bumper-to-bumper factory warranty. My Wrangler is a low mileage vehicle with about 20k miles. The offer was to extend the factory warranty for an additional 6 years or 60k miles for about $3000. There would be a $100 deductible on the warranty. I do plan to keep my Wrangler for at least that long, if not longer. I have never had any experience with extending the warranty on the car. I was wondering if it was worth it to do this type of warranty or if anyone had experiences they wanted to share.
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Totally agree. In the long term, however, it will help the recovery.
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Agreed, but GGP's bankruptcy is healthy. Its the only way we will clear out the bad debts. I like to use the forest fire analogy, burn away the rubbish and set the stage for new, healthy growth.
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Fantastic piece. This about sums it up....
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By Howard Davidowitz. He's colorful, but tells it the way it is. Big problems ahead. All I can add is...spot on. Great Interview
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I disagree. Most folks who pay the 9% rate live in NYC, Westchester or Long Island. They can up and move to NJ or Connecticut, and still get to work very easily. Nots aying NJ or Connecticut is that much better, but they would not pay 9%.
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I've often said that if Jim's Steakout opened up on the Upper East Side they'd make millions.
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Exactly. Argument #1 for full term limits.
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I'm not sure I agree with this with respect to states (Federal executive branch, yes). Being mayor of NYC means leading a population and economy that is much larger and more complicated due to NYS's arcane gov't rules and layers and heavily entrenched unionized interests.
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Well, the Republicans did nominate Mike Bloomberg for NYC mayor (arguably, at least as important as NYS Gov), and he had zero political experience. Even though I disagree with much of what Bloomberg has done, on a philosphical level, he has been a good mayor. If he wanted to run for gov, its likely he'd win.
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You mean we can't just keep raising taxes on our millionaires...they may move away? C'mon spread the wealth. Hope and Change for all!!!
