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Everything posted by Joe Ferguson forever
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It's a theory. there are others from Pew research: Some have also suggested that many of those who were polled simply were not honest about whom they intended to vote for. The idea of so-called “shy Trumpers” suggests that support for Trump was socially undesirable, and that his supporters were unwilling to admit their support to pollsters. This hypothesis is reminiscent of the supposed “Bradley effect,” when Democrat Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to Republican George Deukmejian despite having been ahead in the polls, supposedly because voters were reluctant to tell interviewers that they were not going to vote for a black candidate. The “shy Trumper” hypothesis has received a fair amount of attention this year. If this were the case, we would expect to see Trump perform systematically better in online surveys, as research has found that people are less likely to report socially undesirable behavior when they are talking to a live interviewer. Politico and Morning Consult conducted an experiment to see if this was the case, and found that overall, there was little indication of an effect, though they did find some suggestion that college-educated and higher-income voters might have been more likely to support Trump online. Polls are an important part of any political campaign. Biden was persuaded to quit because of them. they highlight trends, not absolutes.
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from a recent Time article on how to read polls: This is where polling averages like those run by Real Clear Politics can be useful in tracking trends and momentum. But data nerds warn against making too much of them. It would be wrong to try to chart changes between a February CNN poll and a March Fox News poll. They ask the questions differently. Their back-end formula for weighing voting universes is different. It’s the kitchen equivalent of tracking the sweetness of sugar and flour just because they come from similar bags. That said, plenty of us do look at so-called polls of polls. But like all opinion surveys, it’s helpful to remember that they should never be taken as predictive and that they’re already out-of-date by the time the data are released. It's not a novel term. Perhaps it isn't used on alt right sites.
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Guy is nuts. yo9u guys an have him. were this a pickup game, my team would go one player short before picking him https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rfj-jr-once-chain-sawed-021800097.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAimdqbx5fcigKjw5stGAC0O8BYh645oBYmrCdjFqBVo5xIrKlgvaib8W3fPNyZRE58nn3lLCm17PwtPfNKVkwghn3fc60Edewsbla96J40GOxBOtUY785JKe_0viSaUr6C322Mr4djesW8Em6XsGvWnagkGp0evt4pQH1Z9LZhV
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Democrat Convention 2024 (Chicago)
Joe Ferguson forever replied to B-Man's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
You can't yell "fire" in a theater. You can't do this: "French media reported that the warrant for Durov was issued by France at the request of the special unit at the country’s interior ministry in charge of investigating crimes against minors. Those include online sexual exploitation, such as possession and distribution of child sexual abuse content and grooming for sexual purposes." These aren't a part of any democracy. Read something other than your cult news... -
Democrat Convention 2024 (Chicago)
Joe Ferguson forever replied to B-Man's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I don't think he writes like Billsy. But if it is him, so what? This is a thread complaining about censorship started by the far right nuts here...some of whom are not who they claim to be. -
Trump 2024?
Joe Ferguson forever replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Most people, including his entire family see him as insane. He’s not an asset to trump If he pulls out, it will hurt him badly except for the 34 percent idiots. -
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4846433-harris-leading-trump-by-7-points-poll/ With independents who do not lean toward either party, Harris still leads Trump, but by a smaller margin, 38 to 33 percent, the poll found. Harris holds a large lead among self-identified liberals, 87 to 10 percent, along with progressives, 93 to 5 percent, and moderates, 62 to 30 percent.
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Trump 2024?
Joe Ferguson forever replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
The moron responds with complete nonsense. I suppose it's better than an eyeroll emoji... -
the reason is that you deserve it. You're dangerous in a stupid way like the Jan 6 scum. We can't understand how you can still support them or a candidate that supports pardoning them We suspect hate and anger and are confirming it. WHY ARE YOU HERE? WOULD IT BE MORE FUN TO CIRCLE JERK WITH OTHER WHITE NATIONALIST HATERS?
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Trump 2024?
Joe Ferguson forever replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I wanted to find out the origin and basis for this "law". I found nothing before 10 years ago and no behavioral studies or support. What a surprise! It appears MAGA's and far right extremists just made it up as an insult to "woke" people. It's meaningless. It's not iron. It's not even cheap plastic. But the term iron law originated in a poem by Goethe and has several widely accepted uses such as "of oligarchy" which is where one of the morons likely latched on to it. -
Trump 2024?
Joe Ferguson forever replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Change of tune. trump wants more immigrants https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=64602 -
Democrat Convention 2024 (Chicago)
Joe Ferguson forever replied to B-Man's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I won't stop. You fools make this shite up. The cases were NOT about recounts. Read the summaries of the first 3 cases here (apparently no one read this the first time as part of their "research") https://campaignlegal.org/results-lawsuits-regarding-2020-elections Inconsequential. MAGA's are so easily amused. Monster trucks and fake wrestling... -
Trump 2024?
Joe Ferguson forever replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
nah, I think it was your post dismissing all the court losses trump suffered trying to prove fraud in the 2020 election with no evidence to back it up. congrats.