I start to get the most skeptical of QBs after the middle of the 2nd round, until we get into the total who dat category in the 6th and 7th. When there's a guy on the board who has legitimate starting potential (say, better than 50% odds), he'll rarely make it out of the first round, and even Clausen went with a team's first pick. After that, I think the guys drafted in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th tend to be backup types. It's too early to make a very risky pick on a guy who might be Tom Brady, but 10:1 he's just Rohan Davey, so those longshot guys tend to drop. Instead, the names that peek out in that range are the Trent Edwards types - future journeymen.