Beck Water

In contrast to some here, I like Kurt Warner's breakdowns and accept as valid his point that Josh is sometimes trying too hard for the kill shot when there are open guys underneath who could get yards. In this NFL Total Access segment from this week, Warner lauds Burrows accuracy and decision making and "putting it up to allow his guys to make plays" and says "whoever wins those 50/50 balls could go a long way to decide who wins this game". OK. He also pulls clips from Josh Allen's recent "Wind Tunnel" game in Chicago, praises him for threatening defenses every time he steps on the field, and says he could use a "little more understanding" of when to take those chances and when not to take those chances. He highlights Allen's deep throw into double coverage that was picked. Allen acknowledges that as "a bad decision" and I think we would all agree. I think it's appropriate to point out here that the other guy can make some bad decisions too. I was surprised to look up and see that Josh Allen has thrown 13 interceptions, 9th in the league, right up there with Tua. But guess who's #12, with 12 interceptions? This guy, that's who. I couldn't find this season, but here's a little look at last season when Burrow threw 14. Open invitation to the Buffalo Bills Defense: let's help Burrow equal or surpass his tally last year, shall we? Enjoy!

IIRC you didn’t think too much of Burrow and he’s looking Franchise at the moment

Perhaps. But you’re highlighting select things and kinda skating over the controversial takes and comments You don’t see how it’s a little controversial for a player on the current #3 seed to proclaim his team the “big dog of the AFC and that’s just what it is”? Yeah, they won the AFC last year. The Rams won the NFC last year. If they proclaimed themselves the “big dog of the NFC”? Yeah, Bengals deserve respect for last year’s accomplishments, but “you are what your record says you are” this year. So since you’re up on all things Bengals, translate that - ‘cuz from here, it sounds like he’s saying the Bills don’t play honest, that they cheat. And that’s pretty sketch IMO Yes, that’s my point. The Bengals are the #3 seed right now so what’s with Mixon’s “Big Dog” talk? They might be the “Big Dog” at the end of the AFC championship game, but that remains to be seen

Some of the stuff that's been quoted from Bengals players doesn't sound that respectful (like Mixon)

Sounds like he's all about the Bengals being AFC Champs last season and not getting the "credit" they deserve for it. That was last year, Joe. Take the ring off; it won't help you this season. We know who the #1 seed is in the conference right now. And who the #2 seed is.

No I didn't. Got a linky?

Bengals have a good D and a top-notch DC who is good at making adjustments. Bengals D is overall #8. Jets is #4. (Bills are #2) Jets D is #5 for pass NY/A given up. Bengals D is #19. (Bills are # 8, with rounding, tied for #6) Jets D is #6 for rush Y/A given up (with rounding, tied for #4). Bengals are #9, with rounding tied for #8. (Bills are #14, with rounding tied for #11) I don't quite "get" the narrative that the Bills D is gonna get boat raced, is weak against the pass, etc etc. To read some of the stuff, you'd think the Bills overall have a mediocre D instead of a top D. And yeah, maybe the Bengals can make an argument for "our D is better now because we got DJ Reader back" but then, do the Bills get to claim a mulligan for the games they played without Poyer or Milano?

Since DJ Reader returned Week 11, the Bengals have held 4 of the 6 teams they faced to <100 yds rushing. Only the Chiefs managed a better-than-league-average 138 yds rushing. I'm not sure exactly what Simms line of thought is. Certainly I could buy that the Bills are unlikely to run over the Bengals as they just ran over the Bears, for 254 yds of which only 41 belonged to Josh Allen. He may be keeping to his opinion that the Bills have no running game apart from Josh Allen. But Allen's rush yards count! League average rushing is 120.8 Y/G. The Bills have rushed for more than that in 8 of their last 9 games. They don't get to discount Josh Allen's yards, he's part of the Bills rushing game, but his contribution to it has varied, from a low of 7 yards (!) against the Browns in Detroit (171 rush yards total) to a highs of 86 and 84 yds (against the Jets and Minnesota). Anyway, the team that managed to run against the Bengals + Reader was Kansas City, where obviously they needed to also defend a vigorous passing attack (which they held to 211 yds). And pundits can say all they like about the Bills passing offense stalling out, but we still have a top-10 passing offense by every metric I know to look at (no Frankenstats) - #6 by NY/A while the Bengals are #9. For people who follow the Bills, and know the history of Josh's UCL sprain and the weather the Bills have been playing in (like us), it seems fairly plausible to believe that the Bengals can squash our run game completely if they try - but then they are likely to leave something open in the passing game.

No, not at all. Missing practice today (which he did) is routine. Missing practice Thurs (normal Weds) is missing the offensive install

Yeah, this concerns me. Last week when Poyer was on injury report with a knee, he was DNP Tues and Weds then FP on Thurs. and had no game designation. So definite downgrade this week to DNP Thurs and Fri and limited today, Questionable for the game. I also don't like Stefon Diggs missing 2 of 3 practices - he normally has a vet rest the final practice, but this week of course missing Thurs with "illness".

Mina Kines weighs in: Quoted here by Bengals Insiders Plus Russ Heltman: Who then goes on to say "The Bills' defensive strength lies in its spine rather than the outside, with linebacker Matt Milano and safety Jordan Poyer playing pretty well this season." O.K. Playing Pretty Well. Good to Know.

I was thinking about this. I looked up the last time the Bills played the Bengals. We had many of the same guys on defense this year, that we had then - Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Milano, Edmunds, Siran Neal, Tre' White, Poyer, even Dean Marlowe! With the exception of Tre' White, who is working his way back from injury, then backups Neal and Marlowe who are a "push", I think they are significantly developed as players. Edmunds and Milano and Oliver, no question; Lawson and Phillips seem like more disciplined, focused guys. But it may linger in Mixon's mind like "oh yeah, last time I faced them I could do this and that and the other". But sure, Mixon, poke the bear. And he could be "on" to something; to some extent, without Hyde and Von Miller and with Tre White not 100%, the Bills are a bit of an "either or" defense where they will decide what they most want to limit when facing a good team, and focus there. That's how the Packers and the Dolphins were, IMO, able to rack up a pretty absurd number of rush yards against us.

So I think I put this upthread already. The regular Greg Cosell preview of upcoming opponents is always interesting and especially so this week. Greg Cosell, for those unfamiliar, started out reviewing actual film on reels and has gotten to the level of respect that off-season, teams will actually solicit his review of various draft prospects. A person may agree or disagree, but he's not your average bloviating talking head. Anyway he talks about how the Bengals D is not a high % man team, but they do like to play man on third downs, in Dime, where they bring in Trey Flowers as their dime back and match him up with TE. When asked what's one thing that the Bengals D doesn't do well that he thinks the Bills could exploit, Cosell says that he doesn't think the Bengals are great at one thing on D, he thinks overall as a D they're really solid. Then he goes on to suggest that there could be opportunities for Dawson Knox in this game. One thing that I don't think is too uncommon in the NFL, is that various comments from players suggest to me that the Bengals have focused on maybe the last 2-3 games the Bills have played in their analysis of an opponent they haven't played since 2019. Which is fine, there's only so much prep that can be done - but for the Bills, the last 3 games are a bit of anomaly for different reasons - the wind and cold in Chicago, the cold and anticipated snow and wind vs. Miami which did finally show up late, the snow/rain just around freezing point for the Jets. If they're watching the Jets game to see how the Jets shut us down, my take is really that the Bills shut themselves down most of that game with passes that could have been caught but weren't - Diggs, Knox, McKenzie, Singletary, maybe Davis too? We had what, 5 scored drops for that game? and more that were catchable. So we'll see.

Could see this? Dear Joe Mixon, You Are What Your Record Says You Are. Let's play the game, shall we?

WTH is "EPA per play"? I just hate little tid-bits like this. Why pick "since week 9"? It's a 18 week season, so if you want to pick the 2nd half of the season, you would start after week 9, no? That happens to be the start of the Bengals 7 game win streak, but they also had a bye Week 10. It also happens to be the start of a pretty rough stretch for the Bills - no bye, Allen injured his arm at the end of week 9 (or, some think, something happened end of 1st half/start of 2nd half vs Green Bay) with an injury that was predicted to keep him out 2-4 games; the Bills played 3 road games in 12 days including a short week; Bills played in snow, wind and bitter cold. And managed a 6 game win streak, with a couple of plays away from 7. I don't have a problem with pundits picking the Bengals. They're a very good team. Burrow is a very good QB throwing to possibly the best WR trio in the league. He is deadly when he's allowed to play within their system. They have a top-10 defense, #8 on points, which may arguably be higher since the return of DJ Reader. I "get" the observation that the Bills offense hasn't been as productive the last weeks But when you pick an odd game interval (since week 9) and one stat (EPA per play, which I think is a "Frankenstat") it leads me to wonder why, and what a different set of stats would say. And oh, the Bengals are the hottest team riding a 7 game win streak vs the Bills 6 game win streak (with an OT loss) is pretty weak-sauce "pick the horse with the coolest name" kind of logic.

Diggs back at practice yesterday:

In some of the conditions, they may not have been able to see the train or police station. When it’s really a whiteout you can’t see more than a few feet ahead of you

Well sure, and I made the same quip in answer to a question “how have any teams beaten them?” But @muppy’s key points (turnovers, key penalties, being physically dominant in the trenches) usually do have a strong influence on that “most points” thing

Another heart-warming story https://buffalonews.com/news/local/bangladeshi-community-rescued-sheltered-and-fed-hundreds-affected-by-blizzard-and-racked-up-4-500/article_344297d2-8799-11ed-9935-7f850480b1b6.html Hope their fines are cancelled because of the lives they saved and helped, just as "Merry Christmas Jay" will not be prosecuted. If not, some of our players were saying they were looking for a way to chip in - quietly paying fines for anyone ticketed whilst helping others would be nice

He did not, but then he DNP two days last week before practicing and playing in the game Scored more points? Three of their losses were really close games which they lost by 8 points total - Steelers, Cowboys, Ravens. Those were all "early in the season" and "they've grown, they're a better football team" now. The Browns really thumped them in Week 8 winning 32 to 13, and the game wasn't as close as the score makes it appear

Diggs is not happy to have aspersions cast upon his cooking prowess 🍳🥘🍲

Yeah, I had the distinct impression from Josh's demeanor and what he said about conversations/discussions - that Joe Burrow wasn't his favorite person. This was mixed in of course with a bunch of polite, praiseful stuff about how he really respects Burrow as a player and a person etcetera Then in Burrow's interview, he said he and Josh are friends and he likes to hang out with him because Josh is outgoing and a fun guy to hang with. Both things can be true I guess - they can enjoy hanging together and be friends to some extent, but also be highly competitive working with Palmer, and maybe as part of that Burrow said some stuff that grated on Josh. They're very different QBs. The piece someone posted of Greg Cosell previewing the game is really good. Essentially my "take" on what he said is that Burrow is the classic QB that Josh Rosen was alleged to be able to become - the elite processor of what he sees pre and post snap, who knows where to go with the ball and is very accurate at getting it there, but who will be aggressive pushing the ball downfield when he sees the opportunity. On defense, since I'm talking about it, Cosell talked about the Bengals being primarily a zone team on early downs, but that on 3D they like to play man from dime by bringing in Trey Flowers and having him cover the TE. He talked about how good the Bengals D is at making in-game adjustments.

I believe if you were to go back and look, there was no "opting" involved. Out of the first 9 games the Bills played, we lost the coin toss in 8 out of 9 cases. In the one case we won (Ravens), we did opt to take the ball 1st, I think because the rain was forecast to become worse as the game went on Josh threw a pick from deep in our own territory and the Ravens took over and scored a TD in a couple of plays But in 8 out of the first 9 games, "confident" had nothing to do with it, the other team won the flip and got to pick.

I think the Bengals feel the opposite - I think they feel they're tired of hearing about Buffalo and KC and Allen and Mahomes. They feel, "hey - who dey team went to the Superbowl and were AFC Champs last season? This team that's who - Bengals!" They feel they're leading the league in pass Yards/Attempt with 8.7. Their QB has the best passer rating in the AFC, #2 overall, the next AFC team is #10 and the Bills are way down there at #16 - this despite being 3rd in the league for sacks and 2nd for sack %. They would say yeah, Burrows has thrown 14 picks, Mahomes has only thrown 1 fewer at 13 and Allen has thrown 2 more at 16. As far as being unpressured, part of that is playing comfortably within the offensive system and taking what the defense gives him, something both Allen and Mahomes fail to do consistently. It leads to them getting the big plays, but it also leads to them laying some eggs at times. Coaches like Dick Vermeil used to think that a QB who could run would fail to develop as a passer because he'd bail and run. While no one could doubt Allen or Mahomes abilities as passers, it's also a point that they'll bail from the pocket and seek the big play at times when they could take the checkdown and move the chains. It's a different style of QB. Anyway, I personally think you can make a case for him being on par with them, based on performance - and his numbers being better in some regards. He out-performed Mahomes in the AFCCG and he out-performed Mahomes in their win earlier this season. If "you are what your record says you are", then the Bengals are right up with the Bills and KC as the Class of the AFC and a game on Monday to prove who's the Big Dawg. It's up to the Bills to prove they're the better team by out-executing on Monday.