FireChans

Thanks for reminding me Tyreek and Godwin were very good lol. Here’s some reference for you. # of 1000 yard seasons for the teams that drafted them on that list Robinson - 1 Cooks - 2 Tyreek - 4 Godwin - 4 Woods - 0 Pittman - 2 So really that’s an average of just 2 seasons of 1000+ yards or more out of the best of the best of that list lol. So there’s a 66% chance he never touches 1000 yards once. And then if he’s an average of the BEST of those players, he’ll have 2 1000 yard seasons for the Bills. Ever. So then let’s look at second round WRs in general. to my eye, that % doesn’t look that much different for any random second round WR. So yeah, that 500 yard season is irrelevant. A 30-40% chance of hitting 1000 yards once is basically where he started.

No, I’m just saying the WRs sucked in 2018 and thus didn’t have a ton of yards and that the WRs sucked in 2024 and thus didn’t have a ton of yards. the 2024 group can be better and still suck. I’ll just ask again if you think that Stroud does better on the 2020 or 2024 team. You said “you can easily say,” but I want to hear what YOU say. Because your line about easy pass outlets is very funny when we had arguably best WR1 in the NFL and an All Pro slot WR in 2020. And a defense that had Hyde, Poyer, Tre, a healthy Milano etc etc etc. Imo, 2020 WR’s and defense much better than 2024. Like inarguably widely superior 2024 has a better RB room, arguably the least valuable position outside of STs and a better OL. TE’s is Dawson Knox both ways and a slot TE who wouldn’t be on the field with Beasley much anyway so he’s near irrelevant. So the answer is 2020 by a MILE for me.

I guess I misunderstood your quoted post. But anywho, here are the players who put up 500-600 yards in their rookie seasons since 2013. Robert Woods Aaron Dobson Allen Robinson Brandon Cooks Martavis Bryant Dorian Green Beckham Tyreek Robbie Anderson (Chosen) Chris Godwin Christian Kirk Antonio Callaway MVS Hollywood Brown Mecole Hardman Gabe Davis! Michael Pittman Elijah Moore Pierce Jahan Dotson Dontayvion Wicks Michael Wilson Demario Douglas Keon Coleman Bob Foster So there you have it. It’s a who’s who’s JAGfest. there’s a gazillion of NFL WR’s that can put up 500 yards when they are featured in an offense. Was anyone worried about Pop Douglas being the next DHop or Davante Adams in New England? I wasn’t. Stevie was a nice little wideout but he put up 3 inefficient as hell 1k yard seasons as the #1 option. SOMEONE has to catch the ball.

This may be the first time in TBD history where I have been irrevocably wrong. cherish this moment

Wilson and Trubisky started like twice the games. fair on Lance and Rosen though.

Reggie bush too

I don’t know about that, but it would depend on your definition of “impressive rookie numbers” I would harbor to argue that WRs who put up 900-1k yards as rookies are almost never busts, whereas the bust rate for average to not bad yardage totals as a rookie is almost certainly higher. ESPECIALLY in recent years. Going back to 2013, the list of rookies who put up 900+ yards: Keenan Allen OBJ Mike Evans Sammy Watkins Kelvin Benjamin Amari Cooper Michael Thomas JuJu DK Terry McLaurin JJ Tee Higgins CeeDee Lamb Chase Waddle Smith ARSB Wilson Olave Puka Rice Addison BTJ Ladd Nabers That list is about as nearly “bust” free as you can imagine. The point I was generating was that Keon Coleman having “okay” numbers as a rookie by itself doesn’t mean much. I personally thought he played much better in the first half of the year than I expected and his whole season went off the rails. Whether that’s tape or rookie wall or injury or all 3 is anyone’s guess. What I do know is if Keon dropped a 900 yard rookie season, I would be arguing he has incredible chances to be a future NFL star. As it stands, a 500 yard rookie year gives him close to 50-50 odds historically, which is basically what his draft status guaranteed in the first place, which boils down to “he didn’t change my mind on him.”

You really just don’t see busts like this in the NFL anymore. A top 10 pick at QB with 18 starts in the NFL?

Lamar has 2 MVPs and 3 first team All Pros. That basically gets you in. Of the guys coming up with Josh, I think Josh is firmly behind Mahomes and Lamar. He’s definitely ahead of Burrow (although look for a Burrow MVP award coming this year if they can win their division or even sneak a WC). Why you think Josh has a better HoF resume than Matt Ryan? This list is kind of telling imo. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm

I feel like playoff wins and “some of the best playoff stats” end up lost in HoF talk. keep in mind, I’m not saying this is my criteria but the actual criteria. Based on the most recent QBs, the thing that matters most is hardware. AP, MVP, SBMVP, ProBowls. The next is career records, aka TDs, yards, wins, etc etc. Then everything else. Rivers has the longevity and very good numbers but lacks hardware. He is one of the very good numbers but never an All Pro, never an MVP, never won his conference. There’s just such a glut of QBs upcoming. The QBs in the HoF mix over the next decade are: Brady Brees Ben Rodgers Rivers Ryan Eli The first 4 are locks and the next 3 are not. I would be extremely surprised if all 7 are inducted and would not be surprised if Rivers and Ryan are snubbed. And Josh Allen’s resume today is closer to the latter 3 than the first 4. He would not be a Hall of Famer today if he retired like Mahomes or even Lamar would be. IMO.

What is your agenda-free take away from: Lots of busts and good players have achieved 500 yards as rookies. To me, the takeaway is clearly, then 500 yards as a rookie doesn't mean much. If your takeaway is that Keon is going to be excellent/suck because he had 500 yards, I think you have an agenda tbh.

So, what you are saying is that the lofty goal of around 500 yards as a rookie is basically meaningless. We agree.

Robert Foster averaged 20 YPC and 540 yards as a rookie too.

Rivers hasn't made the Hall of Fame and imo likely won't.

Its far less philosophy than you think. It's just throwing the ball less and running the ball more because you have bad WRs and good running backs. Which obviously works when you lean into your talent. The WR's in 2018 accounted for ~50% of the teams passing yards and 32% of the offense. Was that because of an "everyone eats" philosophy, or more likely an "everyone sucks" philosophy? You are telling on yourself a little bit saying "this team thinks they don't need to invest in good WR's because they have Josh Allen." But remember the point of our discussion, the team's record without Josh. Why did we previously invest all that into WR? Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis? To help Josh be successful. It stands to reason we all agree that was a good plan right? Get a bunch of weapons around a QB who hasn't yet proven to be an MVP/AP candidate to help him succeed? It worked, right? 2020 is, at worst, the second best year of his career? So why would the quality of targets not help the league average QB we are playing with? Conversely, wouldn't having poor weapons be a much bigger detriment with a non-Josh QB? Of course it would. Removing Josh from the equation and inserting a Stroud, what team has a better record? The 2020 or the 2024? It's not even close imo. The 2020 roster is probably easily a top 4 seed still. And that's simply the entire point.

The average HoF QB has 2 championships, 2 first team All Pros, and 7 Pro Bowls. Rivers has 8 ProBowls. Josh has 4 and an MVP. The MVP helped his case immensely but he still has some hardware to stack to get in imo. I liked Rivers a lot but him and Matt Ryan and Russ Wilson just fall short to me.

“A lot of room to grow” is code for “not very good right now but may be in the future” Every young player has a lot of room to grow. You don’t need a chart to spin that. You can spin that for everyone.

This is why it’s tough to draft contested catch guys. It’s just hard to make a living on those types of plays.

Coleman having a high percentage of contested passes basically means that he’s not open as much on his targets, FWIW.

I never said that lol Someone unclear on the definition of average

Friendly reminder they play more games now and the 2020 offense scored more PPG than the 2024 team. I personally think you overrating the Bills WRs and weapons in particular. James Cook is very good. Ty Johnson has some niche skills. Our “above average” tight end grouping has probably the worst contract on the Bills in Dawson Knox (a guy they recently almost cut outright). Hopefully, we never find out, but personally I think in a “contender off” with the Chiefs, Eagles, Niners, Lions, Rams, Ravens, we comfortably have the weakest roster outside of QB. And it certain comps, it’s not really even close.

We all know, do we need to be reminded every 2 seconds

Shades of Pats fans lording Brady over every other good QB in the league lol

Bills fans who pretend Lamar Jackson isn’t a good QB also pretend Cam Newton wasn’t a good QB

Man, did I just wake up in 2019? Is it too late to start buying Nvidia stock?