Mikie2times

Colts win, Colts had 3rd best performance of the season offensively on EPA, as did the Chiefs that same year, Bengals the following year 3rd again, then Kansas City was 6th last year. In only one of those games we yielded less than 140 yards rushing. So in victory or defeat when we face an actual non back up QB in the playoffs we have allowed one of the best performances of the entire season to that offense in nearly every game. We have the worst EPA of any team in the playoffs in the 2020’s divisional round or later. All of this data includes multiple teams. Multiple years. It’s not just the Chiefs as so many point out. It includes defenses Sean has fielded with far better stats than this year’s iteration. So this year when we allow 140+ rushing again and we actually have to play defense against a QB with a pulse, when we can’t just leverage our lead to force teams into passing downs with below average QB’s, this will be the year it’s different? Please come back to this post at the end of the year. I beg you. If I’m wrong I will publicly shame myself all over these part and GD do I hope I’m wrong. But I’m dumb confident in this position. This is a front running system designed to snowball teams when they’re down. It works even better with verse league average QB’s. But it completely falls apart when the script is neutral and the talent level of the opposing QB is higher and teams make a point to play physical football. Our only chance is Allen putting this thing on his back in a way that we still haven’t seen and he’s already done that a pretty good amount thus far. Which has nothing to do with our head coach.

It was meaningful in the context of evaluating regular season just looking at where the data breaks. Not a lot of qualifiers per year. So at that level you have a really good season. On a per game level, I would have no idea what that looks like.

I mean Jimmy G was 38-17 and he only was over a 65 for one season when he played in 5 games. Purdy was over that number the last two years and he will end up very close this season but is currently under it.

So since 2020 when he has got the 65+QBR he's 58-20 but just two games over .500 without it.

How could anybody criticize him for what he has done in the regular season or not be impressed with what we have done this year? If that doesn't equal literally zero, it's not my fault people can be unreasonable. The playoffs are an entirely different story.

We weren't actually favorites to win the division, but again, that's oddsmakers fault. As I said upthread, 65+ QBR seasons have resulted in 21 consecutive winning records and a winning% of over 70% in the regular season. Burrow will break that trend this year with an all time bad defensive performance. But Josh has been above that threshold every season he has played. To think in this division the absolute floor is not the playoffs is seriously moving the goal posts or just not understanding what we have.

But that's not the case. As I said upthread, I don't think our playoff results are random. I don't think his system can hold up in the playoffs. It's designed for having a lead. It has serious weaknesses in playoff football where running games are better and QB's are more efficient. The data strongly supports our defense being an extreme negative outlier vs regulars season performance when just base average probably gets us to the Super Bowl. It's not just KC, again, discussed upthread, It also doesn't have to be winning a Super Bowl to me. Why don't we start by playing good defense against an NFL level QB? By my account the only time that has occurred in the playoffs is when we had a wind tunnel vs Lamar. It has 100% been about the postseason to me from the start of this year and last year. If other people thought we couldn't get to the playoffs with Josh Allen, they have an issue, not me. With a HF QB.....

He is seems like a great leader and has done an incredible job this year. He's one of the most successful coaches in NFL history in the regular season. At least from my perspective any issues I have with him are in the postseason. From what I can tell most people on here feel similar. They don't think we can get it done in the postseason with him for various reasons. I don't know how you could knock what he's been able to do in the regular season. Even if your opinion is Allen is pulling more weight most great coaches have great QB's as well.

I would imagine literally zero posters on this forum didn't trust him in the regular season. Lets celebrate the crow eating over a Super Bowl or hell, getting to one, or hell getting to a conference championship game. Not regular season success.

If you can't understand why some of us don't like what has evolved and can only summarize it as being a hater, I really don't know what to tell you. We have had a lot of success in this franchises history in similar ways to what we have now without having ever won a Super Bowl. On the front page alone we have tons of threads dedicated to Sean being discussed for coach of the year and talking about the Super Bowl. Focus your attention on those if you don't like opposing views.

Can somebody else have an opposing view than you and not be a hater, little kid, no life experience, irrational, bizarre, ignorant, and you expect to have this turn into an intelligent conversation? Wow. Sounds good.

The point isn’t that complicated. Jimmy G is playing against one of the best of all time in most that sample. You’re absolutely off your meds if you think McD is taking Jimmy G and Brock Purdy to the playoffs 7 of 8 seasons.

They’re beatable. Goff can look borderline incompetent at times. Can we pressure him? Will we be prepared to defend the run on 3rd and 6? Can we do all this and not over pursue as you know they will be screen heavy? Can we try and force some 3 and outs and not live in bend but don’t break? They have played a lot of cupcakes and they can really make those teams look bad, but really, just about any team worth a salt has taken them to the wire. This will be a 50/50 game. In fact, match up wise, the Eagles are even more physical. Even worse for us. Ultimately I also think they will represent the NFC and not the darling Lions.

Cute, like Lions coaching inside his 30

This is the first time since prior to 2020 a QB will finish with over a 65 QBR and not have a winning record (Burrow) these other QB’s you list aren’t even in this conversation. Roger’s missing the playoffs like once when he wasn’t 100 years ole? Lawerence is talked about on these forums as a bust. Herbert and Kyler Murray? 🤣. These guys aren’t MVP’s. Allen is what has given McD this consistency. Not enough Andy Daltons in the world to let Sean in the playoffs this much without A) an MVP that lets his defense front run and B)a very poor division.

I could actually see it, but McD’s ceiling is still the divisional round and Shannon’s would be Super Bowl all day

2018 they didn’t make the playoffs in the regular season match up. 2022 they went 3-4 before that game, then went on to win out until the Super bowl. 2024 they won’t be a playoff team. Two match ups when the don’t even make the playoffs and two with Jimmy G. But who cares about context. It just forces you to think. Not that any of that speaks to the false assumption that KC is the only team we can’t beat. They weren’t even a playoff team two of those years and two other a guy who isn’t even a starting NFL QB now was the starter for them.

And I’m pretty sure last years Ravens. They got significantly better without Roman. Probably last years Texans as well.

The only reason they have been to a Super Bowl and we haven't is they don't play Kansas City in the playoffs. So I've been told.

15-3 with Mahomes, 3 Super Bowls, 4 conference championships 11-13 without Mahomes, 1 conference championship QB means nothing as most say on here

Anybody who watched Howard at Kansas State knew the Buckeyes were not getting elite talent. He was largely protected in that system with a heavy dose of the run and he still was very turnover prone.

I noticed the Guardian Cap timing as well. He seems to be playing like he might play again tomorrow, which is good to see.

Didn't he call him his lil Daborino?

It's really not that simple. His biggest supporters want to make it that simple but the reality is the Colts and Bengals had offensive performances vs us in the playoffs that would have been among the best the entire season. Not playoffs, the entire season. Same goes for those Chiefs, again in the context of the whole year, the playoffs vs us was near the very best. That's not an opinion either, its all in the EPA of those performances. So is it just injuries and the Chiefs when it stretches multiple years, multiple teams? I don't think that's likely. I believe it's a schematic issue. As our ability to to perform worse in the playoffs in DVOA vs regular season is indeed a historic combination. What those defensive playoff performances coincide with is a lot of yards being given up on the ground. Which is fine in the regular season when you have a lead most of the year. Teams just keep throwing into our strength and most don't have very good QB's doing so. It's not as fine in the playoffs when QB's with 3rd and short will kill you and running games are capable of being methodical. Did the Baltimore game not take on the exact image I just described? We will see in the postseason. I think we are at much greater risk than people seem to think.