Mikie2times

He was most successful at FSU as a big slot. It makes sense if he wasn’t the best at separating

Has the loser of the Michigan / Ohio State game ever won a national title?

Can Rookie Nix get 3-5 yards a play with a degree of efficiency? Rookie Maye was able to do it. Russell Wilson was able to do it. Payton is a very good offensive game planner. He will value TOP and parlay keeping the ball away from our offense with a pretty solid defense of his own. He knows the recipe to beat us. I just don't think it's going to be the blowout everybody thinks.

As certain I have been to over our playoff demise, a chance exists Baltimore just doesn’t show well. They haven’t exactly been a playoff juggernaut and are arguably just as challenged as we are in the post season. Then you have to be ok with our chances in KC if that happened. Our team is built more around defending them than anybody else. It would be a close game (“I would think”). Denver could give us some issues. They moved the ball pretty easily on a better defense last year. Payton is + over McD in a spot like this. I expect that will end up being a close game. Crazy to think, but Bo Nix will probably be the best QB we faced in the wild card round since 150 years old Phillip Rivers.

This post could have been better if it was healthy

Without a hall of fame QB you likely don’t have success and stability at head coach. One thing I guarantee is it is a hell of a lot easier to draw the line to a QB as a reason a team is successful than a head coach. I don’t think one example exists where a great HC hasn’t had a great QB. Plenty exist the other way. Except Cincinnati this year is a massive anomaly in this data compared to the entire sample

Brady was probably not the best example, I will agree with that. I think AV has just as much likelihood, if not more, to pull in factors outside of what the individual player contributes. As they say, perfection is the enemy of progress. I think this information is helpful in progressing to the most accurate place we can get in understanding how QB play impacts the bottom line. Perfect, it is not.

It's not a deceleration for QBR, but of the readily available data points that is best. If not that, what would it be from your view (Again, readily available). Pure rating doesn't even include rushing outputs? This is pro football reference historical data. Ultimately the data is good enough to show if you have a good performing QB you will win a lot. Not rocket science, but at least some data to support that statement.

I planned on looking at pro bowlers players and all pros eventually. I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but in the majority of examples with top performing QB’s it would be my expectation that they would still be in that group on other teams. Brady to Tampa as an example. Manning to Denver, etc. Using Allen, my opinion would be he is not declining exponentially on another team. Now does Ryan Tannahill? Sure. That is a much more clear example of a QB who is highly dependent on roster, scheme, process, etc as far as how he is able to rank high. But Josh is going to give you a 65 rating regardless of process, culture, roster (within reason) and that 65 is going to get you to being on average, a fringe playoff team.

Interesting, I remember being pretty emotional. Especially seeing the video of the players.

It’s a bit wild to me that we just assume we could beat the best version the Bengals ever had.

A front featuring Pat and Ted was just unfair.

EPA is impacted by field position. It’s very hard to see the logic in dismissing it as an evaluation tool in the postseason based on that reason. At the end of the day if you want to determine success by not “fully breaking” but doing everything but that, so be it. It was the most first downs they had all year and the most yards they had all year. We have seen plenty of other times where historic numbers like that converted perfectly fine into points vs us. So it’s your take that if we get performances like the Bengals or 49ers vs KC on defense we still don’t win?

Who have we put up good defensive performances against? Baltimore in the wind tunnel? Who else? That year in 2021 when the Colts dropped 400+ yards and almost beat us and KC hung 40+ points the defense was the number 1 scoring unit in football. Against the Colts as well. All Produced top 3 epa’s for the entire season vs us in the playoff.

So our inability to advance past a certain round for several years or the Patriots and Chiefs ability to consistently do so is just randomness? It shouldn’t matter how a team does in the playoffs when evaluating the best team? Maybe actual difference makers become more important come playoff time and maybe as nice as “The Process” sounds it doesn’t create difference makers?

James Franklin does not beat teams of equal or greater skill level. ND or Georgia would both beat them.

Chiefs vs Vikings Bills vs Eagles Ravens vs Rams Texans vs Bucs Steelers vs Lions Chargers vs Commanders Broncos vs Packers Me: Chiefs Eagles Ravens Bucs Lions Commanders Packers It’s an Eagles Chiefs Super Bowl repeat

That was the best Bills defense of all time according to simple rating system by pro football reference. We were really good that year.

Hes the best passer in the game. Not to be confused with the best player.

I'm just looking at results based on different levels of performance. I didn't form any conclusions. You will see a consistent decline in wins and losses based on QBR and very high correlations between the two. These relationships are strong enough to suggest what your saying isn't accurate.

What is overreaching?

I think an element to exists how he impacts the floor as well. We could say, well, a .500 team has 8 wins and this data indicates Allens performance will likely add 2-3 additional wins above average but I would argue the worst a team does with a QB performing like this is .500. So I think that 2-3 likely becomes a lot more. I would argue put Josh on any team in football and regardless of who it is they will be wild card contender instantly.

Allen prevents sacks in a consistent way that very few others can and I have no problem giving him credit for it. Brady did the same. They did it differently, but great QB's can't allow sacks at high rates. They're drive killers. The really good ones limit them with either how long they hold it or mobility. Burrow could be a 70 who misses, Matt Ryan also had a few. Rare, but it happens and I imagine the pattern is similar with bad defenses and close losses.

My takeaway, is Josh Allen = playoffs expectations. Void of nearly everything else. Is it possible to still not make the playoffs with a top 10 performing QBR? Sure. Rare, but it happens. Even more rare when that QB crosses 70 QBR. Even more so when you look at the declining number of players hitting these levels recently. Only 2 players even above 65 last year and 3 players the year prior. I have long made the argument that this franchises success and stability are from Allen more than anything else and I would triple down on that thought process

QBR is very similar to rating. You tend to see the same guys most years in the top 10, but you do get examples of Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Tannenhill once in awhile that are doing it based on the system.