[Bills Utter Collapse-- Jim Kubiak BN]

1 minute ago, Avisan said:

There isn't a drop in receiving talent surrounding Allen relative to last year.  If anything, it was better when factoring in a relatively healthy Kincaid up until now.

I don't think it was random that the offense turned around with Cooper. Even if his production wasn't there. Same with Diggs the year prior as far as just performing at ahigh level. Those are guys that needed to be accounted for and when called on, as rare as it was, made some pretty big plays downfield. Not to mention Mack Hollins performing at a higher level for us AND New England this year for every receiver outside Shakir. It's also not like Kincaid has been healthy all year. I would take last years WR group hands down. 

[Bills Utter Collapse-- Jim Kubiak BN]

For what is worth, this is Allen EPA+CPOE ranking by year. CPOE is completion % above expected.  I think it's showing what you would expect it to show. Allen is historically a top 3 performer, arguably #1 in 2024 and 2020, but always top 3. This year he's performing more like a 5-10 guy which is pretty significant as far as the difference in those tiers. Obviously his statistics are a product of himself and his environment so that's not to say his value is 5-10.  I imagine other QB's would be signifgantly lower ranking with the assets he has, but non the less the stats are the stats. We are getting 5-10 type output. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mike McDaniel Drinking Problem]

38 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I thought Cali sober was mushrooms? 

That would be nice.... and interesting......and colorful

[dynamic kickoffs - will they last? (The Athletic)]

It is in the games DNA to light somebody up. The more likely players are to either A) increase speed or B) reduce awareness of being hit, the higher the risks. Really not surprised here. 

8 minutes ago, T.E. said:

It's bizarre, and it's not because of player safety either. If they cared about that, we wouldn't have 17-game schedules, Thursday Night Football, or regular season games in places like Brazil and Germany.

 

Combine the goofy kickoff with allowing the placekickers to use different balls so that they can make 70-yard FGs, and you're looking at (what I believe is) a perversion of the game.

Certainly more about the perception of player safety than actual player safety. I don't think the NFL gives a F, but they care about people thinking they do. 

[Bills Utter Collapse-- Jim Kubiak BN]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

meh

 

sulking is your word. im not offended by the way he looks on the sidelines

Not offended, just not blind. You see the same look from kids missing a shot in basketball. What do you say? It's ok to put your head down. It's ok to isolate and focus on your mistakes. It's not even considered the way to approach failure as a kid. Let alone the MVP of football. You need to let things go. This topic is not why we struggle. It's part of what accelerates things when it gets really bad. Which it rarely does. We don't agree here, so we can move on. It's not the highlight of why we aren't playing well.   

[Bills Utter Collapse-- Jim Kubiak BN]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

i mean hes literally the only guy id want out there when the chips are down lol

 

i dont particularly care about his demeanor. i think it's just a narrative. i care about results and he stacks them up

You want sulking Allen like the Bengals game, Texans game, Dolphins game? I draw a line at some point with this stuff. He's this entire team, but to say his demeanor is indictive of a leader in some of these moments is garbage. He knows it as well. 

[Bills Utter Collapse-- Jim Kubiak BN]

Just now, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I’m not discounting the possibility of Josh asking for a trade to a west coast team, to be closer to his bride and to end his career where he grew up … imagine Sean McVeigh getting Josh to replace stafford when he retires in a couple years 

He's not going to ask for a trade. He's not going to ask for McD to be fired. You can see right thru him with how transparent he is. Winning HERE is what matters to him. I understand that he is a mega star. But that fact is still why he is so special IMO. He's a mega star in a normal person and will never be anything else. 

[Bills Utter Collapse-- Jim Kubiak BN]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

yes

 

unfortunately the way the team is run doesnt promote this kind of self actualization 

 

it's easy to say 'if i was allen i wouldn't gaf about anything, id just go out and play my game' but realistically he's dealing w a HC that's constantly in the media saying he needs to change the way he plays, a revolving door of untested OCs the current of which is determined to render your abilities as ineffective as possible, and the kind of supporting cast that a respectable franchise wouldn't dare saddle the best QB in the league with...tough to rise above all that

I mean, I'm not dismissing his situation at all and I called out the team needing to better support him, which is incredibly obvious. But I can't think of any QB's that are former MVP's who look like Allen does when the chips are down. He can still work on the part he has control over because he doesn't control the rest of it. 

[Bills Utter Collapse-- Jim Kubiak BN]

1. Allen mindsight can get all screwed up. Speculating that it's his wife is silly. He's never developed the mindset for being a pro QB. He wears his emotions. His body language gets impacted. His confidence goes down. We have been seeing that for years with him. Better or worse, that is who he is probably going to be at this point when things aren't going well.

 

2. He's getting hit more and sacked more and pressure more than he ever has. Which impacts point number 1. I also can't draw a line to one thing as a reason for this. His % of throws occurring over 2.5 seconds is not higher this year. So it's easy to say, because he's holding it so long. But he's always held it a long time. He's always bailed pockets early. It's likely a combination of multiple things. 

 

3. Situationally, he isn't being put in a place to be successful. He doesn't have a lot of help in the passing game and they don't lean on the passing game until a time in which the passing game is very vulnerable. Which then exacerbates all of it's issues. It's sort of like, lets run, lets throw screens, lets run again. Oh crap, we are down two scores. PASS! Well, we don't have great WR's and he's taking a lot of hits. So when he's had to throw the ball around, outside of Baltimore, the situation has not been very positive. It all looks reminiscent of the Texans game last year where he was literally getting killed. 

 

I love Josh Allen and can relate to him a lot as far as point one. I'm a fairly sensitive dude, I'm highly competitive, and when I make mistakes it impacts me. My expectations of myself are far greater than what others put on me. That is both a gift and a curse. We see that playing out in Josh when times aren't going well and it's a problem. It's not THE problem, but at his level, being perfect is not attainable and you have to have a short memory. As the leader of this team, you have to set an example for others and be consistent in that example. He has moments where he can overcomes things, but then we see the sulking again. Head down, frustrated, in his head. The team needs to a better job supporting him and helping his play enough to where this doesn't come up as much and he needs to do a better job reflecting on this and growing. He's not fighting his way into the NFL to make a name for himself anymore. He's the reigning MVP and he has time to focus on the mental side (which should also help his golf game as well).     

 

 

[Who do we want, who do we need as our next HC and, or GM?]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But totally rebuilding on defense is one of the selling points on a change. Time to move away from the scheme and the type of players it demands. There will be enough that can stick around and transition to the new defense, but an overhaul is part of what I'm after.

I want that too, but that's where we are looking at more serious risk. For as bad as the defense is, if you try and put this roster in a signifgantly different scheme prior to reloading it it will be similar to what the Jets had this year on defense. If your pain tolerance is THAT high, then all good. It does eventually need to happen if McD goes. Just needs to be delicately with how many overfit pieces we have on defenses.  

[Who do we want, who do we need as our next HC and, or GM?]

9 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Klint Kubiak is going to be the hot name this hiring cycle. 

 

Kliff Kingsbury is a possibility I suppose. 

 

Nobody else really excites me. I've seen Jim Bob Cooter's name mentioned but that's not his offense in Indy. 

 

I would prefer someone who is offensive minded paired with an experienced DC. 

Klint Kubiak is the guy if it really does go down. It's hard not to like a young guy, who has done what we has, and has the family tree of learning this game. 

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Kubiak is my first choice by far but Saleh with McDaniel at OC intrigues me. Both San Fran guys so the connection is easy to make. Saleh always had his defense performing at a top tier level and it wasn't his choice to bring the circus to town in New Jersey.

Saleh would also be one of the few guys where I don't think we have to totally rebuild on defense. That combination would be nasty. 

[Censorship on TBD]

Not to make this personal because it isn't, but did you ever consider they deleted it because of how you look?

[Censorship on TBD]

Free us from our captors! ATTICA! ATTICA!

 

[The Bills were high bidders for Waddle, tried acquiring Williams]

52 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Most GMs suck at drafting. Giving up a 1st round pick for an established starter is just correctly recognizing that 1st round picks are not as valuable as they're made out to be. I guess Beane hasn't figured that out though. He keeps drawing a line in the sand instead of doing whatever's necessary to win a championship.

I think it’s his background as largely a cap and administration guy. He values the rookie contract so greatly. 

[Mike McDaniel Trolls Bills Fans]

He’s a d bag but an original d bag, which I prefer over unoriginal d bags. 

[MNF - Eagles @ Packers (no Bills stuff please)]

1 minute ago, Mojo44 said:

Watching this game makes me wonder if wide receivers not getting separation is more of a league wide thing.

The Packers aren't exactly a juggernaut on offense. 

[Allen and sacks this season]

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think it's fair to say he has lost a half step. The arm strength is still all there, the escapability however looks noticeably diminished. We're seeing what the offense looks like when Allen can't pull a rabbit out of a hat every time he needs to. Those unicorn plays have made it easy to ignore a lot of personnel flaws and unfortunately tricked the GM into thinking that the offense was set.

 

We need to bake in some more normal blitz reads. Allen in the past has been his own solution shrugging off free rushers and escaping for a big play, so now that we can't count on that we have to find more traditional answers. Unfortunately it is hard to find those answers when you have zero WRs that can quickly separate. Can't be waiting 4 seconds for someone to uncover against a cover 0 blitz, like he did on the play that ended in an INT. Tyrell Shavers isn't exactly the ideal player you want to be relying on there but that's what this season has come to.

I think as well, now more than ever, teams are just taking the right side of the field away for him to escape. We saw that escalating more after his first few years and then I thought he learned to manage it, but at this point it almost looks like he is getting trapped. His natural instincts are working against him in that regard. Rushes seem better contained in addition to the lost a step comments. Which were mocked a bit here prior, but yes. He looks a bit slower. Now way around it. 

 

Look at Shakir on the top left here. It's six if Josh can see it. I agree that the bulk of the issue is WR separation, but Josh at times also isn't picking up the hot read fast enough. 

[Allen and sacks this season]

More fun data:

 

Last year Allen is 106 for 203, 11 TD and 3 INT's, QB RAT 91.8 when having over 2.5 seconds

In his careers Allen is 924 for 1708, 102 TD's and 63 INT's, QB RAT 86.6 when having over 2.5 seconds

This year Allen is 54 for 96, 3 TD's and 4 INT's, QB RAT of 78.7, when having over 2.5 seconds

 

 

 

[Mecole Hardman, Come on Down! (Signed to Practice Squad)]

4 minutes ago, Psautcsk said:

Jet sweeps coming for the offense again.

This is our secret weapon on 4th and 1

[This is how you build from within..]

One last fun Beane nugget. His first internship with the Carolina Panthers? Public Relations. 

[This is how you build from within..]

4 hours ago, Yobogoya! said:

Instead of bringing in proven coordinators who might have their own concepts they want to run, you promote:

 - Ken Dorsey (fired after 1.5 seasons, fired against the next year by his next team)

 - Joe Brady (biggest thing going for him is he wasn't Ken Dorsey. 2nd biggest thing is he'll build the offense McD wants)

 - Bobby Babich (another puppet hire- who may or may not even perform his own duties right now)

 

Then you big contracts to:

 - T. Bernard (who alternates between injured and a liability)

 - M. Milano (same as Bernard, only he'll count 12mil dead cap next year to not play for us)

 - D. Knox (who you replaced on the depth chart right after signing, and is now a 8 digit/yr blocker TE)

 - G. Rousseau (who is earning a top-10 edge def contract but has never been mistaken for a top-10 player)

 - T. Johnson (was great during his first extension- now is mercifully out of the lineup, being outplayed by his backup)

 - C. Benford (deserved a raise as CB1, but extended after several injuries and is now a major question mark less than 1 season after signing for top-15 $)

 - K. Shakir (solid player, earned a contract but is making 13mil aav to be a role player and can't be the focal point of our passing attack)

 - E. Oliver (who might be a force if he could stay on the field and find some semblance of consistency)

 

And most of these guys have been good players, some have flashed to greatness- but there's an awful lot of money tied up in those names that you'd have to feel better about if it was going to a proven, ELITE difference maker (of which we have only Josh Allen and James Cook...)

 

I remember after the 2023 season it seemed like we were poised for a rebuild year- we were OVER the cap heading into the off-season, injuries had piled up, we had fired our OC mid-season and McDermott hadn't chosen a DC yet. Diggs was erratic and eventually bullied our front office into moving on from him, requiring us to absorb a MASSIVE $30mil cap hit for the year. Had no choice but to roster a (seemingly) washed Von Miller for the year due to the big cap hit. 

 

We ended up over-achieving last year, and made the AFCC game despite injuries and lack of top shelf talent and I think that's caused us to double and even triple down on the "process" instead of going full reset, dumping bad contracts, finding proven coordinators and trying to poise ourselves to better compete before Josh Allen turns 30 (not gonna happen now).

 

People were looking for a big move at the deadline this year, but the fact is we've spent too much money right up tot he cap AGAIN this year and the majority of our home-grown contracts aren't paying the dividends we need.

Best post I have read post Miami debacle. 

 

I was looking up little baller Beane and his background more (I shouldn't insult, he seems to be very well liked internally) . As many know he was mostly a cap / administrative guy for the bulk of his days at Carolina. His scouting knowledge was largely from Dave Gettleman who he worked for in Carolina and sort of took Beane under his wing. Gettleman was fired from Carolina and the Giants, but he is known for being a pretty solid scout. 

 

If you look at his picks

 

2013- Star Lotulelei (former Bill)

2014- Kelvin Benjamin (former Bill)

2015- Shaq Thompson (current Bill)

2016- Vernon Butler (former Bill)

2017- Christian McCaffrey 

2018- Saquon Barkley 

2019- Daniel Jones, Dexter Lawrence, Deandre Baker 

 

Nepotism runs very deep with this org. I wonder if part of our initial success with Beane was essentially having all of the information on player grades from the Carolina scouting department with him when he came here. Either way, Beane has spent far more time in administration and cap management than player evaluations. His scouting mentor was let go multiple times. That doesn't mean he was a bad scout, by all accounts he was difficult to work with, but the foundation of Beane's career isn't exactly rooted in historical success. In fact, McD, Beane, and Gettleman, all seemed to rise in reputation signifgantly from one season in Carolina in which they made that Super Bowl run. The fuel of that team was turnovers and Cam, and the demise was rapid. 

 

I give credit for the first build of this franchise. I grade the 2nd attempt much more harshly. To the extent that I question the competency.

 

One more fun nugget in all of this. Gettleman was a guy connected to Parcells and then Parcells to Beane. I guess it wasn't uncommon for Beane to seek insight from Parcells especially in the way the team was constructed. Just for one more nepotism cherry on the top, Parcells coached Kaiir Elams father, Abram. Parcells was known to mentor the family. So when you wonder how/why Elam became a Bill, I wouldn't discount the Pracells connection.  

 

 

 

 

[Daboll Fired]

5 minutes ago, boyst said:

He has no interest in working with mcdermott. The two of them were oil and water.

McDermott is Oil, anybody who challenges him is water

[Tampa Run Defense]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Maybe because they gave up a lot of yards to us?

Over half the games they have played have resulted in 100+ rushing yards allowed. The stats are the stats. If you think our 141 yards is enough to eject them from the leagues rushing defense elite than I would think New England's 166 yards would do the same or maybe Detroit's 164. But that's not what the stats show. Not sure why we are even talking about this? 

[Tampa Run Defense]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Yeah they are good, but so were the Chiefs who hadn't allowed a 100 yard rusher at the RB position in 26 games until we played them.

 

If the Bills execute properly we can run against pretty much anyone. If they don't and are sloppy in their preparation and are off on details, then that makes it a lot easier to stop them. 

 

The problem is our team seems to lack focus more often than usual this year for whatever reason.

KC isn't exactly the pinnacle here. This is the best run defense we have faced this season. 

 

 

[Tampa Run Defense]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Man I dunno...Henderson just scored on runs of 55 and 69 yards against them yesterday...

Any team can bust a big run. One of those was with a stacked box at the end of the game. The greater point is this is a team that seems built to disrupt our standard formula. We should have a pretty good idea of that coming in. They have held 6 teams to under 100 yards total rushing and the per play advanced stats on run defense are among the best in football. Better than New England when looking at both. So this is the type of team people have been calling out as far as being difficult to move the ball on. We will see if we have any answers.