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Mikie2times

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Posts posted by Mikie2times

  1. 52 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

     

    Most GMs suck at drafting. Giving up a 1st round pick for an established starter is just correctly recognizing that 1st round picks are not as valuable as they're made out to be. I guess Beane hasn't figured that out though. He keeps drawing a line in the sand instead of doing whatever's necessary to win a championship.

    I think it’s his background as largely a cap and administration guy. He values the rookie contract so greatly. 

  2. 28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

     

    I think it's fair to say he has lost a half step. The arm strength is still all there, the escapability however looks noticeably diminished. We're seeing what the offense looks like when Allen can't pull a rabbit out of a hat every time he needs to. Those unicorn plays have made it easy to ignore a lot of personnel flaws and unfortunately tricked the GM into thinking that the offense was set.

     

    We need to bake in some more normal blitz reads. Allen in the past has been his own solution shrugging off free rushers and escaping for a big play, so now that we can't count on that we have to find more traditional answers. Unfortunately it is hard to find those answers when you have zero WRs that can quickly separate. Can't be waiting 4 seconds for someone to uncover against a cover 0 blitz, like he did on the play that ended in an INT. Tyrell Shavers isn't exactly the ideal player you want to be relying on there but that's what this season has come to.

    I think as well, now more than ever, teams are just taking the right side of the field away for him to escape. We saw that escalating more after his first few years and then I thought he learned to manage it, but at this point it almost looks like he is getting trapped. His natural instincts are working against him in that regard. Rushes seem better contained in addition to the lost a step comments. Which were mocked a bit here prior, but yes. He looks a bit slower. Now way around it. 

     

    Look at Shakir on the top left here. It's six if Josh can see it. I agree that the bulk of the issue is WR separation, but Josh at times also isn't picking up the hot read fast enough. 

    • Agree 1
  3. More fun data:

     

    Last year Allen is 106 for 203, 11 TD and 3 INT's, QB RAT 91.8 when having over 2.5 seconds

    In his careers Allen is 924 for 1708, 102 TD's and 63 INT's, QB RAT 86.6 when having over 2.5 seconds

    This year Allen is 54 for 96, 3 TD's and 4 INT's, QB RAT of 78.7, when having over 2.5 seconds

     

     

     

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  4. 4 hours ago, Yobogoya! said:

    Instead of bringing in proven coordinators who might have their own concepts they want to run, you promote:

     - Ken Dorsey (fired after 1.5 seasons, fired against the next year by his next team)

     - Joe Brady (biggest thing going for him is he wasn't Ken Dorsey. 2nd biggest thing is he'll build the offense McD wants)

     - Bobby Babich (another puppet hire- who may or may not even perform his own duties right now)

     

    Then you big contracts to:

     - T. Bernard (who alternates between injured and a liability)

     - M. Milano (same as Bernard, only he'll count 12mil dead cap next year to not play for us)

     - D. Knox (who you replaced on the depth chart right after signing, and is now a 8 digit/yr blocker TE)

     - G. Rousseau (who is earning a top-10 edge def contract but has never been mistaken for a top-10 player)

     - T. Johnson (was great during his first extension- now is mercifully out of the lineup, being outplayed by his backup)

     - C. Benford (deserved a raise as CB1, but extended after several injuries and is now a major question mark less than 1 season after signing for top-15 $)

     - K. Shakir (solid player, earned a contract but is making 13mil aav to be a role player and can't be the focal point of our passing attack)

     - E. Oliver (who might be a force if he could stay on the field and find some semblance of consistency)

     

    And most of these guys have been good players, some have flashed to greatness- but there's an awful lot of money tied up in those names that you'd have to feel better about if it was going to a proven, ELITE difference maker (of which we have only Josh Allen and James Cook...)

     

    I remember after the 2023 season it seemed like we were poised for a rebuild year- we were OVER the cap heading into the off-season, injuries had piled up, we had fired our OC mid-season and McDermott hadn't chosen a DC yet. Diggs was erratic and eventually bullied our front office into moving on from him, requiring us to absorb a MASSIVE $30mil cap hit for the year. Had no choice but to roster a (seemingly) washed Von Miller for the year due to the big cap hit. 

     

    We ended up over-achieving last year, and made the AFCC game despite injuries and lack of top shelf talent and I think that's caused us to double and even triple down on the "process" instead of going full reset, dumping bad contracts, finding proven coordinators and trying to poise ourselves to better compete before Josh Allen turns 30 (not gonna happen now).

     

    People were looking for a big move at the deadline this year, but the fact is we've spent too much money right up tot he cap AGAIN this year and the majority of our home-grown contracts aren't paying the dividends we need.

    Best post I have read post Miami debacle. 

     

    I was looking up little baller Beane and his background more (I shouldn't insult, he seems to be very well liked internally) . As many know he was mostly a cap / administrative guy for the bulk of his days at Carolina. His scouting knowledge was largely from Dave Gettleman who he worked for in Carolina and sort of took Beane under his wing. Gettleman was fired from Carolina and the Giants, but he is known for being a pretty solid scout. 

     

    If you look at his picks

     

    2013- Star Lotulelei (former Bill)

    2014- Kelvin Benjamin (former Bill)

    2015- Shaq Thompson (current Bill)

    2016- Vernon Butler (former Bill)

    2017- Christian McCaffrey 

    2018- Saquon Barkley 

    2019- Daniel Jones, Dexter Lawrence, Deandre Baker 

     

    Nepotism runs very deep with this org. I wonder if part of our initial success with Beane was essentially having all of the information on player grades from the Carolina scouting department with him when he came here. Either way, Beane has spent far more time in administration and cap management than player evaluations. His scouting mentor was let go multiple times. That doesn't mean he was a bad scout, by all accounts he was difficult to work with, but the foundation of Beane's career isn't exactly rooted in historical success. In fact, McD, Beane, and Gettleman, all seemed to rise in reputation signifgantly from one season in Carolina in which they made that Super Bowl run. The fuel of that team was turnovers and Cam, and the demise was rapid. 

     

    I give credit for the first build of this franchise. I grade the 2nd attempt much more harshly. To the extent that I question the competency.

     

    One more fun nugget in all of this. Gettleman was a guy connected to Parcells and then Parcells to Beane. I guess it wasn't uncommon for Beane to seek insight from Parcells especially in the way the team was constructed. Just for one more nepotism cherry on the top, Parcells coached Kaiir Elams father, Abram. Parcells was known to mentor the family. So when you wonder how/why Elam became a Bill, I wouldn't discount the Pracells connection.  

     

     

     

     

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  5. 1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

     

    Maybe because they gave up a lot of yards to us?

    Over half the games they have played have resulted in 100+ rushing yards allowed. The stats are the stats. If you think our 141 yards is enough to eject them from the leagues rushing defense elite than I would think New England's 166 yards would do the same or maybe Detroit's 164. But that's not what the stats show. Not sure why we are even talking about this? 

  6. Just now, Big Turk said:

     

    Yeah they are good, but so were the Chiefs who hadn't allowed a 100 yard rusher at the RB position in 26 games until we played them.

     

    If the Bills execute properly we can run against pretty much anyone. If they don't and are sloppy in their preparation and are off on details, then that makes it a lot easier to stop them. 

     

    The problem is our team seems to lack focus more often than usual this year for whatever reason.

    KC isn't exactly the pinnacle here. This is the best run defense we have faced this season. 

     

    image.thumb.png.898fadf0c5f1e6381c9e08fc89de4c00.png

     

  7. 4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

    Man I dunno...Henderson just scored on runs of 55 and 69 yards against them yesterday...

    Any team can bust a big run. One of those was with a stacked box at the end of the game. The greater point is this is a team that seems built to disrupt our standard formula. We should have a pretty good idea of that coming in. They have held 6 teams to under 100 yards total rushing and the per play advanced stats on run defense are among the best in football. Better than New England when looking at both. So this is the type of team people have been calling out as far as being difficult to move the ball on. We will see if we have any answers. 

  8. 1 minute ago, streetkings01 said:

    After the past 5 games(2-3) how confident are you that we win this game?

    I have learned this team is at it's best when nobody believes in them. With that said, this is a horrible match up for our offense. So it should be a pretty good litmus test of what is real and what isn't real with this team. No way we come out flat here, but the sort of match up many said would be our demise.

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  9. Brady will have a big opportunity to silence critics here. Tampa is 4th in EPA run defense and 1st in run defense success rate. Is it possible we impose our will after a complete turd? Sure. But I don't think Tampa is coming in overlooking anybody off a big loss at home to New England. Henderson popped two huge runs, outside of those runs NE had 25 carries for 42 yards. They had 3 TD's over 50 yards and 4 total plays over 50 yards. 

     

    Learn The More You Know GIF by @InvestInAccess

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  10. 27 minutes ago, UConn James said:

    In the NFL you need to re-invent yourself every season and every week. Not For Long. Other teams will know your tendencies, know your weaknesses, and exploit them.
     

    McD & Beane are putting out the same schemes and signing the same players and we get the same result. 

    I was thinking about this early. As far as how much of this is just teams adapting to what we are trying to do. It seems like the way to beat this team historically was make them nickle and dime you. Get in your two high shell. Make Allen dink and dunk, make them run. Well, that is actually what we have become as an identity now.
     

    With no downfield threat of any kind why are you going to stay in that shell? Who in gods earth wouldn’t press our WR’s right now and put another body in the box. You can’t just say “we don’t need to do something” in this league. That goes for when Dorsey refused to run and take the check down just as much as Brady/Beane refusing to develop a downfield passing game. I don’t know what is with this team and its inability to just develop both elements. The foundation has been there for years, but we just go all in on one or the other and refuse to be balanced. 

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  11. I said it in another thread but this team looks like a team that has had Super Bowl or bust expectations for years and come up short. It’s like they’re swimming against the tide this year. Nothing is easy. Everything is labored. 
     

    How do you manage this team if you’re McD? What do you say to them? Put this one behind us men. One week at a time. Focus on how we play not our opponent. Whatever it is at this point I imagine it’s getting to be a harder sell. 

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  12. 2 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

    The worst unknown is drafting a franchise QB, we have that. Surely Beane will pull the trigger on McDermott if we don't make a deep playoff run. Which right now looks quite suspect. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think McDermott is capable of anything better than getting to and losing a conference championship

    I don't think he can, either way, he should be grabbing a mirror. It's on both of them and fairly equal at this point. 

  13. 3 minutes ago, JBI$111 said:

     

    All of the above, good riddance! You wasted Josh's entire career so far.

    The Bears are 6-3 with the guys all of us wanted. The Patriots are 8-2 with the other guy all of us wanted. The rest of the board was trying to warn us that the Bills would fall apart with such a move. It's time to move on from this regime, but it's not going to happen. This is going to be McD and Beane purgatory time for several more years. 

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  14. 4 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

    I'm tired of the grass is always greener mentality as I saw years of turnover and guess what? It really wasn't greener.

    I just think this franchise, coach, roster, all of it, is worn down from wearing the Super Bowl or bust label every year. It's not something that is sustainable from my view. It's a miracle it has gone on as long as it has. It's getting to be time and that argument isn't even about what is fair, just, or right. It's just getting to be time. They need new blood. It could come with pain, but it also could come with renewed perspective and energy.  

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  15. Just now, The Jokeman said:

    My point is people like to B word at our coaches but when ask for replacements they all seem to be like you can't come up with an answer. 

    This is horse crap, you not liking the answer isn't the same as not coming up with one. People have been calling out replacements for years now. Many have had success, some haven't. 

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  16. 2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

    Except that fundamental system that's broken scores 30 points a game.  Then when it doesn't everyone says it's broken but it's also the same game where they have a handful of turnovers and dropped passes.  I get it we don't throw bombs to WR's and that makes a number of people on here nuts but if I'm Brady I'm doing the best I can with what I've got.  I'm not sure anyone else is doing any better with this group.  

    Yes, 30+ points a game when they can run, control the clock, and play with a lead. Under 16 points a game when they can't. The whole argument is this offense isn't diverse enough to win multiple ways. Not that it isn't capable when Cook goes for 150 yards. Cook has 49, 87, and 53 yards in our three losses. 44, 132, 108, 117, 216, 114 in our wins. If your argument is this offense can be "secretly dominant" when Cook goes for 100+ I won't argue. My argument is it can't be dominant when he doesn't. It's borderline below league average when that is the case. 

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  17. 4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

    2 of our turnovers were in the red zone and the 3rd would have been a first down just outside of FG range.  We were moving the ball.  We just turned it over too much.

    So it's a coincidence Allen has 3 red zone INT's, one in each game, in the three losses? We were pressing. It increases turnovers. You're trying to blame a symptom, I'm blaming the disease.  

  18. Just now, Maine-iac said:

    Or ......... oddly enough ........ when we turn the ball over a lot we don't score as many points.  4 of Allens 5 picks are in losses and I haven't even looked up fumbles.

    Or........oddly enough....... when we aren't efficient in moving the ball we are more likely to turn the ball over?

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