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Mikie2times
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Posts posted by Mikie2times
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27 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
Its 100% getting banned next year, I have zero doubt about it after the stink about illegal formations and false starting.
Safety wasn’t the correct narrative to discuss with this play. Yes, it looks dangerous and somebody will likely get rolled up and hurt bad eventually but officiating is a way bigger issue as far as game integrity.
The AFC championship should have been the catalyst. Poor officiating on that play could have cost us a Super Bowl birth. Not sure how that didn’t become bigger news in the push to get this play banned. You just can’t see the ball to even spot it. Then this Offside crap. It’s microseconds as far as the movement. This is starting to feel Patriot like in some ways. Then you say, how big is it to the Eagles success? It’s pretty damn big. I think we will be just fine. But that teams is basically playing 1st down and 9 to everybody elses 10 and ya, it adds up. If the play can’t be officiated correctly it has no place.
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9 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:
That's what the Bills invested in Diggs, without question. If this is a draft pick investment thread, then the specific picks used to acquire WRs should be what's considered. So just because someone else seems wrong, we shouldn't slide our thinking into "wrong" territory.
I can say from my perspective, I don't attempt to categorize the Diggs trade into a draft pick discussion because I can't track down all the rest of the draft pick trade for players and input that information. Same for Kincaid. I understand he is a receiving TE, but I'm not going to try and categorize all of those types and put some sort of value to weight that as a WR investment. Logical sure, hard to do with analytics and not introduce my opinion.
I will also add this look is from 2021 on, so it is outside the Diggs window. But also likely impacted 2021/2022 etc, as we acquired him reducing the need for higher investment. So if one wants to go down the discussion of us actually investing a lot more than what the pure draft picks show, certainly a conversation you could have.
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Thought I would add this chart I did in the offseason. I posted it before, but maybe it helps establish in some consistent way the level of draft investment made at each position. Mind you, it does not account of pick for player trades like Diggs.
All of us are familiar with the draft trade value chart. Each pick is assigned a value. So I all I did was add the the value of every teams drafts since 2019. Then I looked at how many points were allocated to each position. So this isn't saying who spent the most, it's saying who spent the most of what they had as a %. We rank low as you would expect. KC is fairly high, as you would expect. I also included DL for context.
I found the largest correlations with win % being DL, CB, and WR investment. Teams that invest the highest in those three areas seem to have the best performance over this time frame. That's not to say that is the reason, it could be many reasons, I'm just describing the behavior of the teams that have won the most.
Here is the composite of WR/DL/DB investment since that time. We are about middle of the pack.
Last edit to this post and last call out. Notice the point totals. That goes to show how little draft capitol we have had relative to the rest of the league. 2nd to only KC as far as lowest value. Again, put in context just how late we draft. The Raiders are so low because the two city abbreviations screwed up my formulas and I got lazy.
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4 minutes ago, Zag20 said:
On a goal-to-go situation, do this until everyone in the stands dies of old age.
They can award a TD, they nearly did in the playoffs last year
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17 minutes ago, dayman said:
Strange argument. Chiefs use higher picks on WRs and miss, but we smartly use lower picks to somehow have a higher probability of getting average guys? This doesn’t make sense.
A big part of it is that we both pick late so we can’t really get a top guy they always go quick. Also, we had Diggs. If they had not lost Hill they’d have taken WRs later.
The real story here is just that it’s tough to win the NFL. Dick Juron was right.
I'm surprised that was your take here. The point is the Chiefs have invested at a high level in the WR position, as most would like to see us do. It hasn't worked, to the extent that our lack of investment has shown better returns. Which might be part of why we choose not to invest, as Beane has called out it being a high miss position. We seem more content with depth here, making sure the floor is high, and that Allen has baseline targets that can be functional. KC is swinging for the fences, largely missing. We have emulated them in so many ways, but not this one. Which seems to get the most criticism, but when you look closer, even for a critic like myself, it hasn't gone very well for them.
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8 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I think my issue is this. The Chiefs needed WRs. They drafted high. They did do well with Rice as long as he stops getting himself suspended. Worthy hasn't been around long enough to judge fairly. But they don't stop there. They go out and sign former 1000 yard receivers in Brown, Ju-Ju and last year DHop. They just keep grinding at the position when they miss.
Meanwhile, for us the position we do that with is the DL. We invest high picks and then turn around and have to sign pricey FAs. The PED guys, Bosa, Von. We just grind away on DL.
But the reality is they have still fielded one of the worst units in the NFL for a very large % of games over the last two seasons. Which I understand is in large part do to circumstances. But at the same time, this is a rather boom or bust position. Teams build around a stud WR, they don't often pursue depth, then it's a huge rug pull when that guy goes out. WR busts don't end up like AJ Epenesa, it tends to be fairly black and white. Many aren't even in the league in short order. The post wasn't to say I agree with what we have done. Especially considering guys that we could have gotten much later like Troy Franklin and Tory Horton. It's just to say the Chiefs have done what I think most people on here (largely myself included)wanted to do and yet have fielded a total cesspool of WR's for the majority of games these last two years. I think in some ways it reflects our hesitancy to invest heavily here even if its still not something you or I agree with.
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I don't believe I have seen this topic circle back. It doesn't seem like this play can be officiated, can't spot the ball, can't see the ball. This might be lights out. Thoughts on the offside? I imagine the Eagles will lose a pinch of effectiveness knowing the refs are going to hawking this.
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Just now, sven233 said:
Gotta admit that some of those would look pretty cool if they were real.
This is like the Game of Throne stadium remake. These are totally bad ass. The NFL would never allow that much of the field to be occupied by anything but seats and luxury boxes.
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1 minute ago, BlueRed said:
Keon was a 2nd rounder
Thats right, my bad
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Since 2021 (have to start somewhere, the Bills also invested picks in 2020)
The Chiefs have drafted a WR for 5 consecutive years. 1st rounder, (2) 2nd rounders, 4th rounder, and 5th rounder. So fairly high value assets. The results of those drafts are below.
Jalen Royals, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Sky Moore, and Cornell Powell.
The Bills have drafted a WR for 5 consecutive years as well. 1st rounder, 2 (5th's), and 6th rounder, and a 7th rounder. So fairly low value assets outside of Coleman. The results of those drafts are below.
Keon Coleman, Kaden Prather, Justin Shorter, Khalil Shakir, and Marquez Stevenson.
What interests me about this question is for largely two consecutive years when I have watched Chiefs games I have said to myself this has to be the worst WR group in football. I mean, we complain about our WR's, but last week it was Hollywood Brown, Taquan Thornton, and Ju Ju. Last year it was largely the same. Mind you, Worthy could very well be something, and Rice is something, but neither looks to be the most durable. Maybe that is dumb bad luck, maybe not, but the fact remains KC is consistently fielding a horrific WR core the last two years.
Meanwhile back in Buffalo, we have been a bit more hesitant to invest high value here. I think it's been stated by Beane that WR is a very hard position to judge in the draft. Perhaps that is what leads to apprehensiveness. Which I largely don't agree with, however, our approach seems pretty clear. We focus this position on depth and an elevated floor vs a high ceiling, specifically with budget friendly FA acquisitions.
Now one thing is for sure. We will never be running a Taquan Thornton on the field. We have good depth here. When Elijah Moore is one of your last in, that is a problem the Chiefs would love to have. But beyond the depth, you could very well argue that the returns of Coleman and Shakir rival the returns of Worthy and Rice. Rice could very well be the best of the group, but you need to play to be in the conversation.
So as much as I have historically disliked our approach at WR, I think what has happened to the Chiefs is sort the reason we have that approach. I think we care more about depth and ensuring it's not a position that kills us vs reaching for the stars and missing. Further, I would argue for as much crap as we give the front office over the WR position and I still feel somewhat justifiably so, KC has done a much worse job. They have reached a critical point in talent erosion multiple years. They invested more in the draft for the same or even worse returns. Yes, a lot of bad injury luck, but nobody cares about the recipe they want to know how it tastes.
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9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
There was plenty of people after one in two years on this own website who were not sold on Josh Allen
Go back to the end of his second year and there was still plenty of people not 100% sold on Josh as the future of our team in this site lol
This is not as cut and dry as we just lucked into the best player in the world.. Buffalo Bills did have to help develop him
To think Josh Allen is the best player in the world on 31 other teams is honestly kind of crazy.. he might be on a couple teams.. on 24 other teams he's not the best player in the world because they would not have developed him correctly
We can agree to disagree but it's crazy to think that if player x starts his career at spot y he's exactly the same
Allen was a green prospect. HE needed to develop, which he largely did on his own. Your credit for culture and environment is only apparent after it was largely given a chance to develop based on Allen being elite. No QB, no culture, no time for process.
All this stuff can matter with a B talent. Give a B QB a great system and talent and it can make a difference vs a team who likely just picked top 5. It just doesn't matter when you're dealing with a Josh Allen level talent. Somebody who is that determined, that intelligent, and that self aware. The game has never failed a Josh Allen level player because the situation was just so bad it ruined the player.
Yes, we can agree to disagree
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10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
The Jets have not developed a franchise quarterback in 60 years
The bills developed Joe Ferguson Jim Kelly and now Josh Allen .. that's three times as many quarterbacks who played for a decade
The bears have not developed a franchise quarterback in 60 years... They traded for Cutler and never developed him more
Remember Sam darnold got drafted ahead of Josh.. he has tons of talent and a good work ethic.. he is athletic he is accurate he was considered a top notch prospect ... And he went to Palmer's quarterback school too and works hard.. the difference was he was on the Jets.. and Baker was on the browns... Now does Josh have more talent than Sam? Yes, but Sam was much more polished.. and Josh needed to get polished.. which takes a team
Josh Allen did not go to the bills organization which was in futile for 17 years.. he had McDermott right out the gate who is the glue and gives players the best chance to develop
McDermott built a culture which is a great influence on everybody on the team.. from Josh Allen to the lowest guy on the practice squad... Everybody respects everybody at one Bills drive from the coaches to the chefs to the mail guy that Josh Allen shouted out.. that is the culture that breeds winning and development
Kurt Warner is a Hall of Famer and nobody can tell me he would be the same guy if he didn't go to the Rams... In fact most of his career is not that great... But with the right coaching and team around him he was an MVP
Yes I 100% Believe Josh Allen if he got drafted by the Jets is not winning six straight AFC East titles because they are a dumpster fire... He could still be pretty good.. he certainly doesn't become the cerebral, non turnover machine we have now
He certainly is not an MVP.. that's literally taking credit away from everybody in the bills organization who has helped build him up
Again if they didn't need coaches to make them better.. they wouldn't hire coaches... If Josh didn't think going to Palmer would help.. he wouldn't go to Palmer...
They are all humans... Look at guys like Justin fields and Trevor Lawrence.. insane talent
It takes more than just pure talent...
Who was the QB that these franchises ruined? Who did we ruin during the drought? Somebody that would have done something if McD was around 15 years ag with our culture?
The comment about coaches makes no sense. Every position on earth has a leadership role people report to that provides basic structure and strategy. Every sport has a coach and even if you're elite in that role in Football, you quickly show your worth without your star QB. Meanwhile that QB leaves and just keeps on going.
Calling out Fields or Lawrence as an example of guys to justify your point makes no sense. You have to have mental make up to be successful. By your definition we can blame the Raiders for ruining Jamarcus Russell or maybe Russell is the one that couldn't hack it. This run starts and ends with Allen. It is that simple. Once his time is done we will go back to the same pool of mediocre franchises searching for a QB that we can one day credit our coach for "grooming".
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2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
I think the great quarterbacks will probably be good anywhere
I 100% don't agree that Patrick mahomes would be the exact same quarterback in 31 other teams.. if Josh Allen goes to the Jets I think he probably showed flashes and is good but again does not reach his height with the bills because of our organization being top-notch
Same with Tom Brady
If Tom Brady goes to the lions or browns at 22 I don't think he's anything close to the same player
I think they could all be really good.. but I find it highly highly unlikely that Brady gets 7 rings if he doesn't start off his career with belichick
I don't think mahomes has three super bowls if he doesn't start with Andy Reid
The Buffalo Bills organization 100% has been a calming growing influence on Josh.. literally every single 22-year-old kid has a chance to be a bust.. it's not fair to coaching staffs to say they don't have an influence which is why they're around... To think Josh Allen would be an MVP if he was drafted by the Jets , it's not happening
I think his career is much more Sam darnold trajectory then
Patrick mahomes is regressing from what he was and he still has great coaching.. so it shows that even someone who is considered great can even start losing itba bit... Even with tremendous coaching...Kurt Warner was great with the Rams
Didn't play good for years until he got to the Cardinals
There's a lot of things with quarterbacks going on and to think every truly great quarterback.. could be as just as good in any situation I don't believe that
Players would be coaching themselves and calling plays themselves if they didn't need people to help them develop... Josh Allen has been getting developed by the Buffalo Bills extremely well and the entire football world agrees with that
Joe burrow certainly can be a lot less effective in a lot of other places just look at him now he already struggles to stay on the field... If he was in Chicago his career wouldn't be nearly as close and it still falling apart
Situation matters
For the elite quarterbacks to even reach that elite status they need to be in the right place with the right staff... Sure once you reach elite status it's hard to lose it because they knew what it took to get there
But I don't think Patrick mahomes becomes elite Patrick mahomes if he's on the Chicago bears ... I don't believe that at all
This is beyond speculation and its just plan bad speculation. Both players entered the league with historically losing franchises. Both had low talent levels and roster support. Both had poor QB rooms. Dabs might be your shiny star, but that sort of fades given what Daniel Jones is doing. While also acknowledging the fact that Dabs did nothing prior. Your pushing the warm and fuzzies into the narrative years later, when Josh himself is the largest reason for the narrative.
I'm sick of this mass credit to coaches for largely player driven, QB driven outcomes. Its the biggest farce in the NFL. You have 4-5 guys who are really good coaches and help the roster. You have a whole bunch who are average. Then you have 4-5 who likely hurt the teams they coach. Without that QB1 nobody is consistently over .500, if I'm wrong, show me the consistent playoff coach who isn't directly tied to a high output QB. Which you will likely say "because of coaching". Except when said QB leaves, the coach somehow never establishes the same level of success. It's a story as old as time yet people here actually think McD or Belichick or Reid are the glue. Even if they're top 5 guys, even of All Time, it falls apart without an MVP QB. 9 Super Bowls between them with the same two QB's.
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14 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Can I ask what made us different from Cleveland and NYJ in those days?
we were fully on the draft a QB, watch him fail, fire everybody carousel for about 18 years until Allen got here
The greatest trick McBeane ever played was convincing the Bills fandom that this era is all because of them
It's been my contention the whole time. Do we have an excellent culture? Yes. Do we have a rare consistency that we can credit, at least, in part, to our leadership? Yes. But these concepts never become reality without winning and doing so with consistency. How many equivalent or similar GM/Coach combo's have never been able to focus on process or culture because the QB is a revolving door and they can't remain above .500? This started with Josh more than anything else and it will end with Josh. That doesn't throw shade on the work those two guys have done, but some people feel the whole thing falls apart if they aren't here. No, it falls apart if 17 is not here and that's not giving Josh too much credit. He can generate production based on his individual skills like no player in NFL history.
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8 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
It's because where you land extremely matters
To think it doesn't is fool's gold... These are 21 to 23-year-old kids... And 97% of them need to grow and learn
There's a reason why the bears haven't successfully developed a quarterback in 60 years lol never had a 4,000 yard thrower
It is the organization
Same with darnold... Nobody question his talent or even his work ethic.. the Jets organization spits out quarterbacks for 50 years
We have debated this before, but as happy calls out, I think the great ones will be great anywhere. Perhaps coaching and circumstance allow that to come together sooner. But these guys we are seeing boomerang are not the very best. They will ultimately prove to be starting caliber and sometimes really good QB's. Take Allen for example. He started his rookie year as all these guys did and did so for a perennial loser. His QB whisperer was a guy in New York who couldn't make Daniel Jones work and now it appears like Jones could be the next Boomerang QB. I'm sure Dabs helped Josh, but I'm more sure Josh helped himself with Jordan Palmer and the rebuild of his mechanics. You have called out how much McD is responsible for Allen. Allen was inevitable and that was because of who he is. Not anybody else.
I think the culture, team, and system matter more when the guy isn't at that level. Mentally or physically. They can't overcome a bad org and bad coaching. But I don't believe the elite ones would just all of sudden not be that way in other circumstances. Perhaps the progression would be impacted, but these guys just have drive, talent, and intelligence that is at another level compared to others.
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We missed an opportunity by not leveraging the 90's uniforms more. We are going to wear them one time in a game that will likely be meaningless from a result perspective and not even the final game in the stadium. I hope they rock them for the playoffs.
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Josh Allen is going to do Josh Allen things. No way to stop it. His leaping is more scary IMO.
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Just now, Sierra Foothills said:
Josh said three thing about. the visor yesterday:
1) He's worn them before in college.
2) They capture heat inside the helmet.
3) His voice reverberates inside the helmet.
I wouldn't be surprised if he ditches it early.
His youthful enthusiasm with his teammates is just a joy to watch.
Another thing about Josh is that he often says "we" even when talking about himself. When asked how his nose was he said "we can breathe, so all good." When asked about protecting his nose he said "I think we're going to try a visor".
Talk about a total team player...
100%, I can't count how many "leaders" in business use "I" completely unaware of what it is saying to others. It's something I actually look for in all communication in my org.
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Josh literally looks like a high schooler in some of these vids and it's the most beautiful thing I have ever seen. The MVP of the league looks at this with a kids excitement in his 8th season.
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As a card carrying McD hater (who I will give flowers to on the start of the year) I have been consistent in praising this element of the team. Turnovers, for most teams are fairly random on the defensive side of the ball. But McD's teams historically, even dating back to Carolina, have been exceptional here. It's not random and it does directly lead to wins. When you go down the switch coaching path, that is the element I think you lose the most from. You aren't going to bring another coach in that is this successful at maximizing the turnover battle. He's elite at it, it's in the way our defenses are taught and it's very valuable.
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4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:
I've always believed that except in rare cases where a coach exposes his QB to a severe injury, a coach cannot "ruin" a QB as many here believe. More likely is the QB ruins the coach with his bad play. Most QB busts are the result of bad scouting, not bad coaching. Anyone who thinks better coaching would have worked with JP Losman or EJ Manuel is excusing the people who scouted and drafted them.
That said, there's a relatively new phenomenon that used to never happen: Early round draft choices who were basically on the scrap heap & considered busts are turning around their careers & becoming productive starters. They'll never reach Mahomes/Allen status, but they do recover later in their careers. The 1st was Geno Smith, followed by Baker Mayfield & Sam Darnold. Ironically, each awakened on his 4th team. So, while some would say they were ruined early on, none of these 3 QBs were permanently ruined. At best you can say they were stymied by bad coaching, but ruined, no.
This turnaround phenomenon is getting rather interesting, especially when you consider the parallels.
Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold all started for franchises that are poorly ran. They all started year 1. Daniel Jones is likely going to be the next one on this list. Outside of the bad franchise part, perhaps an element exists just not being burdened by expectations. It has to be a bit much to be a 21 year old tasked with turning around a dysfunctional franchise. Most of which are still dysfunctional years later. To go into a situation largely free of expectations but with the experience of your past. It has to be a pretty damn good feeling for some of these guys.
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29 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:
That song is like 2 3 years old with the Bills , it's cool but has no significance
Still like the shout song more TBH
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Bills vs Chiefs WR investment
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
That was his point assignment