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Mikie2times
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Posts posted by Mikie2times
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29 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Yeah, it really goes without saying that if you land on two future Hall of Famers in Round 2 and Round 3 within 2 or 3 years of each other - you're going to be in really good shape...
But that takes *incredible* luck. 9 times out of 10, in Round 2 or Round 3 you're way more likely than not getting something with a ceiling of a low to mid level starter, a role player, and the floor of a flat out bust. Especially if you're picking premium positions like WR, CB, DE, or OT.
His bigger hits have been at low value positions, like RB, TE, or OL or they have been starter level and not elite talent. Hes done well in value in later rounds, but just very few difference makers.
I mean, what Ed Oliver? And that was 9th pick in the draft. Next best 1at rounder is Groot. Maybe he finally gets an early round hit at a difference making position in Max.
3 hours ago, notpolian said:The thing I keep coming back to is Beane was the money guy at Carolina. He doesn't have the football background. That helps to explain the uneven early round drafting and his insecurity. His philosophy of paying home grown guys is ok - he just keeps handling out pretty big contracts to decent but not excellent players. Eventually that puts you in a bad place, and here we are.
His roots are in administration and cap management. He’s certainly not a scout and didn’t play the game (not even sure if he ever played). Not past high school though for sure.
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3 minutes ago, JDHillFan said:
Right. You guaranteed it!
Thank goodness you hold a unknown internet poster to higher standards than people you vote for. Imagine if you kept receipts of your boy? As I said, it would reflect really poorly on you. So you don't. I can't relate, my identity has never been linked to a political party or a person.
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5 minutes ago, JDHillFan said:
I have a hard time forgetting bullsh*t. It’s a curse.
within days…
Not sure the story is over at this point captain
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14 hours ago, JDHillFan said:
Don’t be going back on your word now. Never a good look.
The “it might only take days” part was especially fun. The “how confident are you?” part was also a nice touch.
haha....jesus man, what do you have going on in your life? Probably the same things Bill has going on. A Bills message board to talk politics and a Bills message board to talk politics.
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I'm confused. Most fans here wanted to look at Vrabel, Harbaugh, and Sean Payton. Then later Ben Johnson. Soon to come Klint Kubiak.
We were told we would be risking everything to consider such a thing. It seems more likely we have wasted several years out of fear of failure.
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7 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
and fans continue to bash the WR situation but we still have had an above average offense despite that. I get why Beane got frustrated with the call in radio hosts that do nothing more than criticize the WR room yet don't look at the big picture. Last season we broke records when it came to points per game both from a team standpoint and NFL standpoint yet all people wanted to do is lament that our WR sucked because we didn't have some alpha dog that put up ungodly stats. He also pointed out that many of the radio guys bashed Beane for drafting Allen instead of Rosen which in retrospect was the right call. The one thing I will say is in all the years he's been here the team has never bottomed out or looked like it couldn't win a game or two despite all the injuries we've had. Is it due to strong roster building aka not having to rely on super stars to pace you? Look no further than to the Jets who's passing offense is in shambles in part because Garret Wilson is hurt and they have nobody behind him that can step up and replace him. Yes, our offense been questionable since the Palmer injury but the plays have been available but for whatever reason Josh not been able to make them.
Perspective is sustained performance in the postseason, in high leverage situations, and being multiple enough on offense to win different ways. Who cares if we have an elite offense under situations when we can play ahead or control the ball or it is elite in the aggregate but fails when faced with less than ideal circumstances. All of these things will inevitably occur in the postseason. It goes back to building teams to win regular season games offensively and not postseason games.
The Jets don't even have a starting caliber NFL QB. I'm not sure where the Jets fit in any conversation offensively, but they don't fit where you're trying to put them.
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54 minutes ago, ChiGoose said:
I honestly don’t believe there is a line that Trump could cross that would cost him the support of many of the posters on this board.
Fraudster? Conman? Child rapist? Murderer of hundreds of thousands of children?
Nah, they’ll still support him. Hell, if he shot their kids, they’d probably assume their kids deserved it.
Once a political figure becomes tied to someone’s personal identity, any criticism of him gets interpreted as criticism of them. That’s why even objectively awful behavior gets reframed as “lies from the liberal media.” It protects supporters from confronting the possibility that they backed someone who is, on a basic human level, a terrible person. So to echo your statements nothing would change how they view him.
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1 minute ago, Avisan said:
There isn't a drop in receiving talent surrounding Allen relative to last year. If anything, it was better when factoring in a relatively healthy Kincaid up until now.
I don't think it was random that the offense turned around with Cooper. Even if his production wasn't there. Same with Diggs the year prior as far as just performing at ahigh level. Those are guys that needed to be accounted for and when called on, as rare as it was, made some pretty big plays downfield. Not to mention Mack Hollins performing at a higher level for us AND New England this year for every receiver outside Shakir. It's also not like Kincaid has been healthy all year. I would take last years WR group hands down.
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For what is worth, this is Allen EPA+CPOE ranking by year. CPOE is completion % above expected. I think it's showing what you would expect it to show. Allen is historically a top 3 performer, arguably #1 in 2024 and 2020, but always top 3. This year he's performing more like a 5-10 guy which is pretty significant as far as the difference in those tiers. Obviously his statistics are a product of himself and his environment so that's not to say his value is 5-10. I imagine other QB's would be signifgantly lower ranking with the assets he has, but non the less the stats are the stats. We are getting 5-10 type output.
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38 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:
I thought Cali sober was mushrooms?
That would be nice.... and interesting......and colorful
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It is in the games DNA to light somebody up. The more likely players are to either A) increase speed or B) reduce awareness of being hit, the higher the risks. Really not surprised here.
8 minutes ago, T.E. said:It's bizarre, and it's not because of player safety either. If they cared about that, we wouldn't have 17-game schedules, Thursday Night Football, or regular season games in places like Brazil and Germany.
Combine the goofy kickoff with allowing the placekickers to use different balls so that they can make 70-yard FGs, and you're looking at (what I believe is) a perversion of the game.
Certainly more about the perception of player safety than actual player safety. I don't think the NFL gives a F, but they care about people thinking they do.
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Just now, GoBills808 said:
meh
sulking is your word. im not offended by the way he looks on the sidelines
Not offended, just not blind. You see the same look from kids missing a shot in basketball. What do you say? It's ok to put your head down. It's ok to isolate and focus on your mistakes. It's not even considered the way to approach failure as a kid. Let alone the MVP of football. You need to let things go. This topic is not why we struggle. It's part of what accelerates things when it gets really bad. Which it rarely does. We don't agree here, so we can move on. It's not the highlight of why we aren't playing well.
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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:
i mean hes literally the only guy id want out there when the chips are down lol
i dont particularly care about his demeanor. i think it's just a narrative. i care about results and he stacks them up
You want sulking Allen like the Bengals game, Texans game, Dolphins game? I draw a line at some point with this stuff. He's this entire team, but to say his demeanor is indictive of a leader in some of these moments is garbage. He knows it as well.
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Just now, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:
I’m not discounting the possibility of Josh asking for a trade to a west coast team, to be closer to his bride and to end his career where he grew up … imagine Sean McVeigh getting Josh to replace stafford when he retires in a couple years
He's not going to ask for a trade. He's not going to ask for McD to be fired. You can see right thru him with how transparent he is. Winning HERE is what matters to him. I understand that he is a mega star. But that fact is still why he is so special IMO. He's a mega star in a normal person and will never be anything else.
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Just now, GoBills808 said:
yes
unfortunately the way the team is run doesnt promote this kind of self actualization
it's easy to say 'if i was allen i wouldn't gaf about anything, id just go out and play my game' but realistically he's dealing w a HC that's constantly in the media saying he needs to change the way he plays, a revolving door of untested OCs the current of which is determined to render your abilities as ineffective as possible, and the kind of supporting cast that a respectable franchise wouldn't dare saddle the best QB in the league with...tough to rise above all that
I mean, I'm not dismissing his situation at all and I called out the team needing to better support him, which is incredibly obvious. But I can't think of any QB's that are former MVP's who look like Allen does when the chips are down. He can still work on the part he has control over because he doesn't control the rest of it.
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1. Allen mindsight can get all screwed up. Speculating that it's his wife is silly. He's never developed the mindset for being a pro QB. He wears his emotions. His body language gets impacted. His confidence goes down. We have been seeing that for years with him. Better or worse, that is who he is probably going to be at this point when things aren't going well.
2. He's getting hit more and sacked more and pressure more than he ever has. Which impacts point number 1. I also can't draw a line to one thing as a reason for this. His % of throws occurring over 2.5 seconds is not higher this year. So it's easy to say, because he's holding it so long. But he's always held it a long time. He's always bailed pockets early. It's likely a combination of multiple things.
3. Situationally, he isn't being put in a place to be successful. He doesn't have a lot of help in the passing game and they don't lean on the passing game until a time in which the passing game is very vulnerable. Which then exacerbates all of it's issues. It's sort of like, lets run, lets throw screens, lets run again. Oh crap, we are down two scores. PASS! Well, we don't have great WR's and he's taking a lot of hits. So when he's had to throw the ball around, outside of Baltimore, the situation has not been very positive. It all looks reminiscent of the Texans game last year where he was literally getting killed.
I love Josh Allen and can relate to him a lot as far as point one. I'm a fairly sensitive dude, I'm highly competitive, and when I make mistakes it impacts me. My expectations of myself are far greater than what others put on me. That is both a gift and a curse. We see that playing out in Josh when times aren't going well and it's a problem. It's not THE problem, but at his level, being perfect is not attainable and you have to have a short memory. As the leader of this team, you have to set an example for others and be consistent in that example. He has moments where he can overcomes things, but then we see the sulking again. Head down, frustrated, in his head. The team needs to a better job supporting him and helping his play enough to where this doesn't come up as much and he needs to do a better job reflecting on this and growing. He's not fighting his way into the NFL to make a name for himself anymore. He's the reigning MVP and he has time to focus on the mental side (which should also help his golf game as well).
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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:
But totally rebuilding on defense is one of the selling points on a change. Time to move away from the scheme and the type of players it demands. There will be enough that can stick around and transition to the new defense, but an overhaul is part of what I'm after.
I want that too, but that's where we are looking at more serious risk. For as bad as the defense is, if you try and put this roster in a signifgantly different scheme prior to reloading it it will be similar to what the Jets had this year on defense. If your pain tolerance is THAT high, then all good. It does eventually need to happen if McD goes. Just needs to be delicately with how many overfit pieces we have on defenses.
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9 hours ago, Bangarang said:
Klint Kubiak is going to be the hot name this hiring cycle.
Kliff Kingsbury is a possibility I suppose.
Nobody else really excites me. I've seen Jim Bob Cooter's name mentioned but that's not his offense in Indy.
I would prefer someone who is offensive minded paired with an experienced DC.
Klint Kubiak is the guy if it really does go down. It's hard not to like a young guy, who has done what we has, and has the family tree of learning this game.
2 hours ago, HappyDays said:Kubiak is my first choice by far but Saleh with McDaniel at OC intrigues me. Both San Fran guys so the connection is easy to make. Saleh always had his defense performing at a top tier level and it wasn't his choice to bring the circus to town in New Jersey.
Saleh would also be one of the few guys where I don't think we have to totally rebuild on defense. That combination would be nasty.
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Not to make this personal because it isn't, but did you ever consider they deleted it because of how you look?
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Free us from our captors! ATTICA! ATTICA!
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52 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Most GMs suck at drafting. Giving up a 1st round pick for an established starter is just correctly recognizing that 1st round picks are not as valuable as they're made out to be. I guess Beane hasn't figured that out though. He keeps drawing a line in the sand instead of doing whatever's necessary to win a championship.
I think it’s his background as largely a cap and administration guy. He values the rookie contract so greatly.
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He’s a d bag but an original d bag, which I prefer over unoriginal d bags.
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1 minute ago, Mojo44 said:
Watching this game makes me wonder if wide receivers not getting separation is more of a league wide thing.
The Packers aren't exactly a juggernaut on offense.
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28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I think it's fair to say he has lost a half step. The arm strength is still all there, the escapability however looks noticeably diminished. We're seeing what the offense looks like when Allen can't pull a rabbit out of a hat every time he needs to. Those unicorn plays have made it easy to ignore a lot of personnel flaws and unfortunately tricked the GM into thinking that the offense was set.
We need to bake in some more normal blitz reads. Allen in the past has been his own solution shrugging off free rushers and escaping for a big play, so now that we can't count on that we have to find more traditional answers. Unfortunately it is hard to find those answers when you have zero WRs that can quickly separate. Can't be waiting 4 seconds for someone to uncover against a cover 0 blitz, like he did on the play that ended in an INT. Tyrell Shavers isn't exactly the ideal player you want to be relying on there but that's what this season has come to.
I think as well, now more than ever, teams are just taking the right side of the field away for him to escape. We saw that escalating more after his first few years and then I thought he learned to manage it, but at this point it almost looks like he is getting trapped. His natural instincts are working against him in that regard. Rushes seem better contained in addition to the lost a step comments. Which were mocked a bit here prior, but yes. He looks a bit slower. Now way around it.
Look at Shakir on the top left here. It's six if Josh can see it. I agree that the bulk of the issue is WR separation, but Josh at times also isn't picking up the hot read fast enough.
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According to Cover 1, Coleman will be a healthy scratch
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
OL, namely Guard is considered "low value", as is TE. Not an opinion, just look at how infrequently teams use first round picks on these players. CB1 is not, it's a very high value position based on the draft. Hopefully he hits on Max because he took a massive whiff on Elam.
He has no history in football player evaluation until Dave Gettleman tried taking him under his wing in 2013. He was a Cap guy and administrator for the bulk of his career. It matters that he has a role where only 32 jobs of his exist in the world and what is probably the biggest focus of that role is something he had zero experience in until 2013. It shows up in the roster everywhere with our middling talent.