Mikie2times

I bet if the Bills were in the playoffs down 35-3 in the 3rd quarter you would leave the stadium

Over the last two years Willis has had more success between the 20's then your average NFL back. Yet whenever a 3rd or 4th and short comes up we can't ever seem to run for a first down. What bothers me the most is this was one of MaGahee's greatest strengths in 2004, and while he played at Miami. IMO the biggest problem is the Bills are going in the direction of finesse on there offensive line, and that style doesn't fit the type of RB MaGahee is. He's not a one step cutback style runner, and he doesn't get to the edge with a ton of speed. The type of line we have goes with a Clinton Portis or Willie Parker type runner. Ideally Buffalo's offense would be best off with that style back, plus a short yardage specialist (Possibly A-Train). If we intend on keeping Willis we must at the very least look at upgrading our run blocking. To me that means either replacing both Guards, or replacing one G and one T. I like Duke Preston as a G prospect, but I worry his run blocking won't be an upgrade over Villerial, who could be on his last hurrah. On the opposite side Reyes would be much better served as a back up, and would bring a lot of depth in that roll. We would be ok with one G out of Villerial, Preston, or Reyes, but if we do that we need to move Peters over to LT. Right now Gandy is an average to above average LT, but he's all finesse, and the same goes for Peters whose inexperience hurts his leverage in these situations. We would be best served bringing in a true power RT, something we had in 2004 with Williams (I know horrible pass blocking). Peters could then move to LT, and Gandy would slide into being an outstanding depth player. Of course I fully expect Willis, and the OL to do just enough between the 20's to make no changes come 2007.

That’s all my original point was. To add to that most young QB's that make it seem to hit a point in there development when production is strong but turnovers remain high. JP hasn't even reached that point in his development yet. He's appeared to play up tight and over cautious football, which limits turnovers but hurts accuracy and production. So when he lets loose like he did today, and some turnovers result, I can feel good in saying at least his production went way up. Without that increase then we should really start to worry. If people want to simplify it to it means nothing we still lost then so be it. It's probably the same people that thought we had a chance at the playoffs after week 2.

JP's turnovers lost us this game. What really makes it look worse is that one of them was returned for a touchdown. This loss hurts, but I'm trying to find positives, and if you can look past the turnovers JP was able to accomplish alot today. Over 300 yards passing, over 8.5 per attempt on 38 throws, and two TD's accounted for. This was the first game in which his performance threw the entire game was great enough to win a game for this team. The turnovers neutralized that, but maybe next time that doesn't happen. The reality is this is rebuilding year, and nothing, including this Jets game, means more to the long term future of Buffalo then JP showing he can win games with his arm.

How you feeling about the trip to East Lansing? My MSU friends are usually pretty confident ND will overlook them, but they seem nervous after the Michigan route.

This may be a stupid question but does Buffalo get most there weather from Michigan a day after or so? Just curious because seems like most the time I was dumped with snow you guys were REALLY dumped with snow. The local Michigan weather man said we will see some bad weather Saturday evening with the potential for Tornado's and severe T-Storms.

I don’t get worked up by the prognosticators. I'm not saying I'm the most knowledgeable guy in the world but I played for over a decade, and watched just about every second of every game live since DTV came out. Who from the national media watches every second of every Bills game like so many of us do? If you weed out the homering the wall is a million times more insightful and accurate then anything you'll read from the large news outlets.

The half yardage credit for a successful FG isn't a bad idea. As for your other comments at the core of this system is the fact that it credits offenses for having to drive farther with the ball, and weakens defenses for having a smaller field to defend. The cumulative totals on the year are the numbers I use, not the average % of each individual drive. So if the Bills averaged starting on there own 35 this year, and had 19 total drives the yard potential on offense would be 100-35= 65, multiplied by the amount of drives (19) for a total of 1235 potential yards. Whatever they actually gained is divided by that number for the raw offensive ranking. I then apply the SOS methods I've explained for the final numbers.

Some Questions, I will do my best to answer them. Mile High- This is a difficult concept to convey on a message board. I spent a great deal of time explaining the SOS, but the role it plays in the final number is only 25%. This is actually less then most statistic based rating systems. The disparity you see with some teams in the rankings does not mean they haven't performed well, all it means is the NFL isn't deep enough in it's schedule for a more accurate SOS to be accessed. Without great raw numbers you won't be making it very high in these rankings anyway. The overall record of teams that have played those ranked lower then them is 59-5 after 2 weeks, So like I said, despite the lack of a true SOS early on these rankings are still representing what has happened in the NFL very accurately. If you want a more detailed explanation of how I apply SOS read the next paragraph. Lets say Buffalo scores a a 10% offensive rating, and a 15% defensive rating (just an example) The SOS for offense would be made up of two parts. 50% would be the the combined opponents defense rating, with the other 50% being the offensive rating those opponents have faced. So if we played defenses who average 10% better then the rest of the league, and those teams have played offenses that average 5% better then the rest of the league, the defensive SOS we've faced would be 15%. Our raw offensive rating was 10%, so just take 25% of the SOS number and add it to the offensive rating and that's the final offensive rating. The same is done of the defense, and the combined number ends up being the power rating. Shamrock- This doesn't factor in points in anyway. It might be a little over the top for some but I don't feel points scored and allowed is the best statistic to use for future predictions. Points get effected by way to many outside factors that may or may not happen again down the road. Yards for and against, and Yards Per Attempt, are much better future predictors, but they also aren't without shortcomings. This method is meant to take away those shortcomings. All you need to know for the raw numbers is how far a team could drive the ball, and how far they did drive the ball. If a team started at it's own 20 they could drive 80 yards. If they drive 75 yards and it results in no points they still get credit for a 75 out of 80 possible yards.

Most your strong teams in this league have one dominating unit, either offense or defense. The window is the amount of time until age, and FA rip apart the dominating unit, thus taking away any legitimate chance at a Super Bowl. Most Super Bowl Champions usually have that dominating unit, and need at least an above average supporting cast to go all the way. Lining up those two elements within the window has proven to be one of the most difficult things to do in football. What I love about this team is the odds of these elements lining up within the next 5 years. We clearly have the makings of an outstanding defensive unit, a shockingly young defense unit to boot. They will play for a long time together, and should become our dominating unit. We also have some young weapons on offense, and have the next few seasons to develop and add additional talent to that side of the ball. We really have a chance at having both these things working for us with a 2-3 year window.

I misunderstood somebody once, ONCE!

I got Miami slightly below us, New England slightly above us. The Jets seem way overrated by my ratings, that should correct itself in a couple weeks. What I like this early on is not many teams have lost in these rankings to teams worse then them. For only 2 weeks of stats, and very little true SOS, I'm very happy with the way these look.

I’ve been working on these ratings for awhile and will continue posting weekly updates. Theory- I come to my ratings by taking the total yards a team has accumulated, then dividing that number by the number of potential yards a team could gave gained. So if a team’s starts a drive on their own 30 yard line they could conceivably gain 70 yards on that drive. If they only gain 35 yards they would get a 50% rating, 70 would equal a 100% rating. Once I get these numbers I take the offensive and defensive ratings, and pit them against strength of schedule. The original net difference is never used, instead I take the strength of the defenses a team has faced, and adjust their original offensive rating based on the defensive SOS. I do the same process to the defense, the combined result is the teams overall power ranking. So as a whole the rankings are very accurate, but more importantly the offensive and defensive ratings are very accurate individually because they are also adjusted to there opponents. If any teams seem out of place remember it’s still very early in the year. I compared mine to Football Outsiders and we seem to have many of the same teams out of place. TEAM OFF IND 29.7% CHI 22.1% ATL 18.6% SD 13.2% PHI 12.8% SF 8.7% SEA 6.1% NYG 4.3% JAC 3.9% CIN 3.8% NYJ 3.6% NE 3.2% NO 2.0% HOU 0.8% DAL 0.2% MIN -0.4% DEN -2.4% ARI -3.9% GB -4.1% PIT -6.2% STL -6.7% WAS -7.0% MIA -7.4% BAL -8.4% KC -8.9% TB -9.1% CLE -9.3% TEN -11.7% BUF -14.7% CAR -18.4% OAK -19.3% DET -21.9% TEAM DEF BAL 20.5% SD 19.6% JAC 15.0% DET 12.4% DAL 10.6% NO 8.6% BUF 6.2% SF 4.7% CIN 3.6% ATL 3.1% PIT 2.7% MIN 2.5% CHI 2.1% KC 1.9% CAR 1.8% OAK 1.7% STL 1.3% PHI -0.2% SEA -1.0% NYJ -1.4% ARI -2.0% WAS -3.6% DEN -4.0% MIA -4.6% NE -5.4% GB -6.0% TB -6.6% IND -7.6% NYG -7.7% CLE -8.3% TEN -15.0% HOU -30.8% TEAM POWER SD 32.7% CHI 24.1% IND 22.1% ATL 21.7% JAC 18.9% SF 13.4% PHI 12.7% BAL 12.1% DAL 10.8% NO 10.5% CIN 7.4% SEA 5.1% NYJ 2.2% MIN 2.1% NE -2.2% NYG -3.4% PIT -3.5% STL -5.4% ARI -5.9% DEN -6.4% KC -7.0% BUF -8.6% DET -9.5% GB -10.1% WAS -10.6% MIA -12.0% TB -15.7% CAR -16.6% CLE -17.6% OAK -17.6% TEN -26.7% HOU -30.1%

This place is about as bipolar as it gets. I remember a time not to long ago when you would get destroyed for saying anything bad about Willis. I know because I got destroyed for saying something bad about Willis. JP is coming off a HORRIBLE year, I say that because he has shown a great deal of improvement, but it's still a great deal of improvement off a horrible year. He's young, his future is looking much better then last season, but the original comments of this thread were far from unreasonable. A game winning drive would be a huge step toward his development.

Great post, I've often thought the same thing, especially if those lyrics have some sort of meaning in my life. It's not my favorite genre by any means, but I think some here are looking at rap way to seriously. Most rappers don't make their songs intending to send you on some spiritual awakening. It's supposed to be fun, and not taken very seriously. The rappers who do take the lyrics seriously usually do a pretty good job at it.

I don't know, I think we need to look at our HFA in terms of how good the team has been. We had a chance at playing decent ball at the Ralph the last few years. When we played away we had no chance. Buffalo's desperate for a winner, when we start to win the Ralph will once again be one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL.

I can't remember a game that had this big a difference in hidden yardage. -Moorman downs 5 inside the 20 -Miami loses 60 yards in sacks -Roscoe averages almost 14.4 on 5 punt returns. -Wire blocks a punt Counting it all and we probably had about 150 yard difference in field position. When you only gain 171 total yards that can make a big difference in the outcome of the game. We should be very strong in hidden yardage this year, but an advantage this big is way above the norm. More reason to stay level headed with expectations.

It's probably more overcompensation then anything else. You see it a lot with mobile QB's. Coaches try and keep these guys in the pocket to keep the structure of the play. Also remember while the yards might not be piling up on the ground, he's also probably hung in for a few throws he wouldn't have last year.

I don't credit Marv with scouting, not the draft or free agency. To think he could come in at his age, after being out for this long, in a role he's never had, and be responsible for scouting................... It's a stretch. Lot's of credit should go to the talent evaluators. The biggest thing I credit Marv for is his humbleness and philosophies. He might not have found the Daunte Whitners of the world, but his views on character is what led our scouts to these type of players. His willingness to humble himself to our scouts, and others allowed us to pull the trigger on these recommendations. TD would rather make a decision and be wrong, then allow somebody else to make the decision for him. We were going to live and die with every call TD made. Marv is willing to look at his scouts, and the time they spend, and say you might just be more knowledgeable then me in this area. It may be unorthodox to have this many on the food chain, but who's to say it's not the best structure? It takes a rare breed to be the Don of all this, but that's exactly what Marv is.

Hey blue, I mean no disrespect in that, I'm sure he did have a big impact on Vince Young. I just judge coaches on game day. To me Mack Brown is Lloyd Carr, both have immense talent, both have national championships. But I don't think either is great on game day, and the success they had is more a product of recruiting then coaching.

Mack Brown cant win the big game, but Vince Young could.

Think about the role our safety’s had within the system we played the last couple years. The whole system was predicated on the blitz, and it was pretty much guaranteed if we didn't get pressure we were screwed. Vincent and Milloy were aging by the snap, and lost the game speed needed from that position. I contend that the defensive system we had was not created by morons. It was created because we didn't have the athleticism at safety to play straight up ball. We had savvy vets who could read plays, and help younger players, but there legs couldn't keep up with there minds. Jauron and Marv didn't want to play this style of defense, so we upgraded early at a position that isn't the popular for upgrading early. Over the course of the season I think we will see how bad it really was, and the difference two sub 4.45 athletes can make as the last line of defense.

Doesn't hurt my feelings. Fug Charlie Weis, BB, and the 100 pounds of breast they have between each other.

Turnovers, and big plays killed the Irish. It's still premature but thoughts of Ohio State/Michigan being undefeated the last week are starting to pop into my head. I'm no fan of the Buckeyes but I don't like that match up in Columbus. Superior coaching for Ohio State, and Hennie reminds me to much of a college version of Drew Bledosoe.

I thought the same thing but it was Bo knows.