Mikie2times

If isolating one play situation was enough to discredit every stat we would have no stats. Exceptionally horrible way to discredit something

It’s measured consistently on pro football reference. A person isn’t required to determine anything. They just use the play by play log. It’s as good a stat as anything else depending on what you want to know

If you look at Air Yards per attempt Josh’s 2021 year was the lowest total he ever posted. 2022 being much more like 2019. I think this is the key for him and Daboll did an excellent job coaching Josh on this. Josh is a different player when he takes the check downs. Our offense becomes consistent. He avoids turnovers. We can still air it out as we did in 2021 late in the year, but we built the foundation late in the year around shorter completions, which then more naturally opened up the longer stuff. 2022 it was just all air it out and it plays right into Josh’s weakness. I recall one poster mentioning how Miami was basically begging us to throw deep in the playoff game. Which was true. What that resulted in was a ton of offensive output, but a lot of longer developing plays and turnover risk. If you’re any DC in the NFL right now why wouldn’t you beg Buffalo to go over the top?

Your examples are correct regarding payouts. But any team that is + money still has “vig” it’s just built into the price. As an example a team that is +100 (bet 100 win 100) will actually have a real probability of between +105 or +110 (you can convert this into a % outcome) 48% or so would be an example. A team with a 48% projected outcome will be priced at around +100. Which means if the outcome is half the time exactly, you still lose money. That is the vig. It’s the price you pay above and beyond the projected true odds and it always occurs ok both sides. Just more transparent on a favorite. 👍

I don’t need excuses. Just look at the average QB rating if the different eras

+ lines always have Juice, you're paying the tax in reduction of the total payout, not in an additional cost to place the wager to win even money a normal line would be something like -110 vs +100, if the + team had no juice, they would be +110 or +105 depending on how much vig you pay.

The average QB rating in 1970 = 75.6 1980 = 73.7 1990 = 77.3 2000= 78.1 2010 = 84.1 2020 = 93.6 As an example, Peyton had a 121.1 rating in 2004. The average rating in 2004 82.8, so he was 38.3 points above the average. He was also clocking 90's or higher after basically his first year. I love Josh, but trying to compare his raw stats to Peyton is silly.

So the vig is what 50 cents on that line in that price range? So the actual probability is +600 or 14.29% or if you want a call the vig a buck, +550 at 15.38%. The book wants to split the take, sure, but if that number doesn't match the actual probability once you account for the vig the book would be exposed. Vegas doesn't think KC has much better of a 15% probability to win it all. If you think they have a 20% probability I would place your wager.

Odds are just an implied probability on an outcome. So yes, they're basically the same thing. Any odd range can be entered into an implied probability calculator. If the outcome occurs more than the implied probability of the odds you will make money long term. If it doesn't you will lose money long term. Here is a calculator https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/implied-probability/ The Chiefs are currently +650 which is an implied probability of 13.33%.

The thread is about perceptions clouding judgement. The narrative doesn't exist because of 2021. It's made our fanbase think that we have a good playoff offense. It is inconsistent at best. Just reading your post is a perfect microcosm of that. Different coaches the other years (same is true for 2022) different Josh (same is true for 2022). Further, in what way has Josh shown he is better than 2020 or even 2019? Why do you think you saw "playoff Josh" in 2021 more than what you saw the rest of the years? We have no consistency on offense with the style of play we showed. It's been a running theme in the playoffs for all but one year. People are so butt hurt over 13 seconds and enamored with how bad the defense has been, if they actually watched what happened they would see pretty average offensive performances in all but one year. Bad enough to cost us the game. They only didn't see that because the defense overshadowed it.

Todd Collins

Downright sexy analogy

I think the offensive played fine in the Chargers game. Another defensively challenged game. We got the late stop, but the Chargers set playoff records for offensive output in a loss. This thread isn’t to say one vs the other. It’s more about one overshadowing the other. The defensive can all of a sudden hold teams in the low 20’s and that won’t be enough if history is any indication. That’s a problem. New year. But I don’t think we can just say as a fan base, offense good, defense bad. It’s not that simple.

Our entire fan base holds its hat on 2021 and I’m cherry picking?

I respect the post, I just don’t like comparing us to the Bengals all that much. I sort of got pulled in that direction to defend the thread. We are built like KC in just about every way outside of defensive philosophy. The Bengals are just the perfect image of consistent. They keep every playoff game close (besides ours). Usually scoring in the 20’s, not more, usually allowing around the same. Burrow doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he is always coming up with a timely play or drive. We are so opposite of this. All feast or famine on both sides of the ball.

Your understanding of scoring averages and how football games are won and lost needs some work. You don't win games based on averages, not unless those averages are created with consistency. Who cares if we have higher high's if we have lower low's and the format is single elimination? I did you a favor and bolded the losses. When the Chiefs, Bills, or KC has scored 20 or less in the playoffs the record is 1-6. KC and the Chiefs have as many combined as we do alone and two of three for those came in the Super Bowl. What is the likelihood we will score 20 or less next year given the data you're looking at? Bengals has scored 24, 27, 20, 26, 19, 27, 20 Bills has scored 34, 10, 47, 36, 27, 17, 24, 19 KC has scored 51, 35, 31, 22, 38, 9, 42, 42, 24, 27, 23, 28

Based on EPA that takes into account things like completion % and turnovers, not just yards, that was our second worst offensive game all year. Given our turnovers allowed a Skyler Thompson led Dolphins team to be winning in the 2nd half, I wouldn't exactly applaud this performance. Josh didn't take anything underneath. Efficiency in moving the ball was non existent. It was backyard football and nearly got us beat by an inferior opponent. We saw what happened with a a more worthy team a week later.

We have posted under 20 points 3 times in the playoffs since 2019 in 3 separate years. It could easily be 4 times if it wasn’t for garbage TD’s vs KC in 2020. We also could have had 10 points two separate years if it wasn’t for a pick 6. KC has put up under 20 one time in that span vs the Bucs and the Bengals, who play a vastly different style than we do, have done it once. The last team to win a Super Bowl and do it while scoring less than 20 points in the playoffs during that run was in 2018.

I'm highlighting one game to show how our perceptions of what is and isn't an issue have become very clouded. It didn't end up being 16 seconds for the Patriots because they overcame it. It didn't end up being a defensive issue for KC because they overcame it the next year. They both did this on offense. Nearly every team has to overcome on offense in the playoffs as we nearly did in 2021. But the reality is, we have not performed even close to that level before or since and if you look at our broader playoff performances on offense they lack the quality and consistency that we tend to see in the regular season. Based on 2021 and the poor defensive performance and how we lost 13 seconds, I think most people around here think the offense is fine come playoff time. It hasn't been. This would be much more obvious to most if the defense wasn't horrendous in our losses. But the fact is even if it wasn't, we still likely lose all three games. We see 20 to 1 ratios identifying playoff defense as the main problem. Playoff offense is just as big of a problem. The consistency isn't there and it goes past just 1 game involving KC and the Patriots to know you need to have elite consistency, clutch play, and the ability to score a ton of points if you want to make the Super Bowl. No, we just need to perform more consistently. It's all phases, people are just obsessed with defense.

Replaying the 4th quarter of the Patriots AFC Championship game at Arrowhead, it became clear just how much the final outcome can cloud the perceptions of how it occurred. In that AFC Championship game, final score, 37-31 ending in a New England win. New England scored to take a 3 point lead with 39 seconds left. It took Mahomes and the Chiefs 16 seconds to get into position to kick the game tying FG from inside the 25. New England would win the toss and score on it's first drive to win the game in OT. No talk of 16 seconds, they won the game. In the process of winning the game, despite having seen Brady do this for the better part of the last 20 years it was impossible to not see the level of precision it took to sustain drives. He was completing passes in the 4th quarter we aren't even attempting. KC had DB's painted on NE WR's and one of the best pass rushes in the league in KC that year had no ability at touch Brady with how quick he was getting the ball out. The level of efficiency on offense that it took to win that game was mind boggling. KC won the Super Bowl the next year and they didn't do so because they suddenly figured out a way to solve those defensive issues. They did so because Mahomes led an offense as clutch and consistent as any QB we have seen since Brady. Over in our neck of the woods, Josh and the offenses performance in 13 seconds and multiple defensive meltdowns have left us putting the failure of this team squarely on the defenses back. Hogwash. The only year we showed in our losses that we could sustain drives offensively was 2021. We were not able to come back like the Chiefs and execute at that level before or since. To win the Super Bowl you need that level of performance. Ask Philadelphia if you think otherwise. 2019 =Our offense scored 19 points in a loss to Houston including 6 points in the second half 2020 =Our offense puts up 9 points in the final 4 minutes to make a 38-15 score look respectable, but anybody watching that game knew we sputtered 2022 =Our offense puts up 10 points against the Bengals at home We can talk about the defense until we are blue in the face. We will have to perform at a 2021 level for an entire playoff run on offense to have any chance at this. In doing so, we need to be able to efficiently march the ball down field. Something we really haven't done since the back half of 2021. The defense has sucked in the playoffs, but the offense has as well. If we only allow 13 to the Bengals and they win 13-10, this is completely different perception. But that's all this is right now. A perception that the defense is preventing us from going further. At the end of the day the offense will be what decides this.

That’s like 3-4 drinks out here. I’ve been in Michigan all week and I’m enjoying the hell out of sane beverage prices

I'm convinced I could drop a high 70 in Romans system. So QB friendly. If you combine running+deep ball+check down+limit turnovers it's going to get you some wins. Certainly at replacement level or higher. That formula won't work as the competition increases. But it will put you on the brink of the playoffs if you can play some defense. As a hypothetical, I think New England would take that vs Mac Jones.

Interestingly, for all his short comings, he had the best deep ball of any QB I have seen in a Bills uniform, which goes back to Kelly. Also was (until Josh) the best runner we ever had at QB. That was enough to do some things. But his ability to hit intermediate throws and make downfield reads was his demise. It felt like for about 20+ years until Josh we just didn’t have a guy that could hit a 15 yard dig or shallow post. Taylor is a good dude. I see him in a very positive light, but ranking him is probably somewhere around Trent Edwards or JP Losman area all things considered.

https://thevikingage.com/2020/12/14/stefon-diggs-admits-minnesota-vikings/ If you replaced the team names, it's basically the exact same story.

McDermott is very measured with his words. He covered for Diggs last year in the Thanksgiving game and did it again in the Bengals game. He has done so in private with Diggs several times. Maybe he didn't fully calculate the outcome, but his intention was to put Diggs on notice and let the team know he wasn't beyond the process. It was completely out of his character to air this publicly, which sort of makes his intentions obvious (my opinion).