WideNine

What about Oliver? He is my dark horse Bill's candidate - snow boarding and basketball background (body control) ran the 40 in the 4.6's and has the biggest perhaps best hands of all of the prospects.

Harry needed a good run, a lot of questions around his ability to separate based on his film. Was hard to tell if it was more a QB ball placement issue or a lack of quickness. The 4.5 speed will push him up boards.

Just yanking your chain - none of us (well most of us) are smart enough not to throw out absolutes when it comes to NFL success just based on combine numbers

Fant may still find success in the league, but watching Iowa games and trolling their boards "drops" were a common theme. Poor blocking, not "into it" if the play was away from him, and inconsistent hands which led to more reps for Hock. I never got the impression he was a cancer or a bad locker room guy, and I thought he handled the loss of reps situation like a pro sans causing distractions so I don't think there are any character issues. Like a lot of prospects, he comes with some question marks, and teams have to decide if they warrant pushing him down their boards a bit. I don't think anyone thought Hockenson was a better pure athlete - I also fully expected Fant to crush a lot of the combine measurables.

Classic case of a lot of teams waiting to see what his combine shows in regards to top-end speed and quickness. Everyone knows he is a beast in regards to strength and contested passes.

So you're saying he is going to be a bust.

He shocked folks that he came in as the smallest TE @ 6'2" and with the smallest hands. You are usually looking for a size mismatch and blocking ability, as well as the hands to find success with contested passes. Not sure why Irv Smith did not convert to a WR role in college - perhaps his 40 time was an issue... not sure, but there are plenty of WR's this year who are bigger than Irv Smith.

I think he will still find success in the NFL. I never thought of him as a 40 time burner, rather I always liked him as a well-rounded all-purpose TE that would be that team-first guy that fits the model the Bills are looking to fill. I thought his draft stock has been a bit inflated by his supplanting Fant as Iowa's go-to guy last season, but he is still a quality (high value/low risk) pick IMO. I am hoping his 40 does turn some teams off and that he drops - it would make him more of an option for teams looking to have someone step on the field and contribute pretty quickly. I also like a few of the other TEs available in this draft, but I think Hockenson is and will prove to be the best blocker of the bunch and he has good enough hands and speed to be a mismatch in coverage.

I think Ebron was just slow to develop and had some early inconsistencies in his game which is why Stafford and Detroit did not use him as their go-to guy. He has matured as a route runner and is catching the ball better with Indy, but needed that change of scenery. I get your point Doc, a team that spends their draft coin on Fant may end up having a long learning and maturity curve as well to endure and may not get their value from him. Buffalo fans are not very patient with dropped balls or lazy routes as the KB experiment clearly showed.

Gronk ran a 4.68 40... just a .02 faster than 4.7. We all have the tendency to glorify the combine measurables a bit too much on guys that have had success in the league - for reference NFL.com still has this to say in their archive regarding Gronk's combine. "Does not have a great top-end speed and may not be able to stretch the field at the next level. Lacks the elusiveness to make people miss after catch." Yeah - that guy is going to suck.

Kind of my take...pretty sure if the Bills stay put at 9 they go DL. Too many elite interior defensive players for the McBeane combo to pass up. There are some edge guys too that they might prefer. The dreams of Hock or other top-end receiving options IMO only have a slim chance of happening and only if they Bills trade down, get extra picks in the 1st, and those top-end offensive skill players slip a bit further in the 1st than expected. That's a lot of if's, and I think its more likely they grab one of the serviceable TE's and WR's later. What OBD does in free agency will dictate draft O-Line strategy, but there are safer picks for G and RT's in this draft, than LT's and C so I don't see them moving Dawkins, but they will bring in guys to compete/start at both G positions, a veteran FA Center (really hoping Spencer is not already penciled in as the starter), and I suspect they draft one of the many RT maulers available this year.

That is a very good point...straight line speed is not as important as quickness and agility. Those shuttle and cone drills probably give you more to base decisions on if the tape has you on the fence...strength and reps factor too. Still, a 300+ pound man running a sub-5 is still pretty flipp'n amazing to see... unless he just passed the TE on a pull and your a 170lb DB in his way

The average across the league is 6' 5" so he is 2 "8ths" from being right in the sweet spot. For a frame of reference out of the 21 TE's at the combine Hockenson is in the top 5 in height. He is taller than Fant, and Bama's Irv Smith Jr is the shortest at 6'2" and 3/8. The other TE I like is Josh Oliver he came in at 6'4" and change, but had the largest hands measured 10.75.

It's all good. There is certainly a cautionary tale when organizations get too blinded by analytics and methodology cure-all's. Look at how GE has "Agiled" their way into near bankruptcy. Much like slapping an "agile" sticker on a lumbering corpse. IMO... for OBD just like any other organization, nothing replaces good leadership, finding good people who make good decisions who then hire good people who can accomplish the mission (the process- that usually works).

Analytics are just another tool in the toolbox. It is not some magical cure-all that creates success. It is like any other tool, it is all about the judicious application of the tool. We all know that putting good information in front of decision-makers does not mean they make the right decisions with it. Look no further than our government for proof. I would not judge this guy too harshly for the Dolphins lack of success.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that it is never black and white. Allen likes to hit options beyond the sticks so he holds the ball longer. He did not usually have a clean pocket to do that from, but has some pretty effective ability to move around to buy himself more time while keeping his eyes downfield. There were times all our receivers were well covered. There were times our line gave him a clean pocket with enough time to deliver...not that often, but some games were better than others. We can all agree that they flat-out sucked at opening any run lanes. Either way, there is plenty if room for improvement on the line and that stat of holding onto the ball is only useful if one actually watches the games to objectively apply it...alone it does not tell the whole tale.

Defenses are getting better at preventing the quick slant... I think it takes a special kind of DB to cover those from the slot position where it usually is run, but there is a lot of contact that goes unflagged. Most teams do use a variety of formations to setup picks to counter good coverage. All that said, a good TE can chip that edge rusher and is simply a mismatch for DBs and LBs to cover on those same short routes without requiring the picks trickery because of their size and height advantages. He is then a great option for a QB with minimal time to get rid of the ball...that is why a good TE is a great asset for a young QB to keep him upright and bail him out when he needs a quick outlet. JMO of a piece of the offensive puzzle that has been missing for a while from the Bills arsenal. I don't think anyone here disagrees that the o-line was horrible last year, but I think that is an issue that needs to be addressed by infusing o-line talent and better coaching to allow the Bills to run the ball effectively outside of Allen scrambles, use play action, and protect more consistently.

Do we NEED any? But I get your point....maybe soneone can start a thread for folks to predict what the AFC East records and competition will look like...dunno. Only problem is that it just seems to take one person whining about not understanding a new thread for it to get closed...so I don't feel like going there. It is the off season and we wore out talking about Kraft's ween and prostitutes...what's left?

Agree to a point. Most years are not very deep at "game changing" TEs. The past is not always a clear indicator of the future when it comes to drafts. Last year teams gobbled up QBs in the 1st, does that mean they should go all in this year? I think "results may vary". This year is different, and I will never understand the total acceptance of meh receivers taken rd 1, when there is clearly more mismatches for defenses trying to cover an athletic TE with hands. TEs keep the chains moving and successful offenses usually have a good TE on their roster. Rookie QBs benefit substantially having a solid if not elite TE. Taking one out of a solid program like Iowa is no more a risk than any other draft receiving option IMO. With all that being said I would like to see the Bills trade down and pick up an extra pick and still get someone like Hockenson. A great TE could grow to be a productive tandem with Allen and maybe help him by being that check down option when he gets that competitive urge to run through defenders.

I did note Allen audible out of one play last year where he faked the handoff and reversed field on a naked bootleg....right into a defender and lost a few on the play. Not sure what he thought he saw, but it did crack me up. I am also sure he did a few that were more successful. He definitely had more confidence and poise as the season progressed. Almost as if he was starting to grasp the playbook and read defenses better.

LT - Dion Dawkins. This regime is about 2nd chances. LG - Wyatt Teller - they draft Michael Deiter Wisconsin to compete. Played every position across the line for solid Badger program. C - Mitch Morse fits the mold although Paradis would be awesome too. Spencer Long competes and adds depth. RG - Spencer Long or Wyatt Teller RT - Kaleb McGary - will be there when we pick, can operate out of a pro set, is strong yet can move well enough to reach block at times and seal the edge. Tenacious and will keep driving to the whistle. ****There are other draft options at RT that are just as good and would upgrade what we have today. It is a deep position this year.

That was my question...a short private Lier Jet ride and he is in a country where they don't care how he gets his jollies. Perhaps it was simple hubris. Maybe once you have armies of lawyers and tons of money you just start to believe your above getting nailed for same things the common folk get arrested for doing.

Truth. And I for one, will raise a glass to Mr. Kraft (and his willie) for lighting a candle in the darkest hours of my off season. Oh to be a fly on the wall for that NFL owners emergency conference call with Goodell.

Some folks don't think that much about what a crappy situation the kids are left in...that goes for the women who hook up with these dudes too. JMO, but I have kids and could not imagine leaving them or having someone else raise them, though I have had some friends go through some ugly divorces where they have had to fight to get some access to their kids.

No Happy Endings for Kraft! This so made my day, heck I'll be grinning all weekend.