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Tommy Callahan

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Everything posted by Tommy Callahan

  1. Between them and all the young folks that are skipping thanksgiving entirely due to the anti-colonial narrative. Might be pretty quiet.
  2. Why the Trillion-Dollar Bailout Benefited the Rich | Time https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/11/17/285-billion-tax-cut-rich-now-2nd-most-expensive-piece-build-back-better https://time.com/6089649/infrastructure-bill-industries-benefit/ https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/upshot/biden-taxes-billionaires-millionaires.html
  3. Following two months of hotter than expected prints (driven by surging energy prices and healthcare methodology changes), the October CPI print was expected to slow materially from the previous month (from 3.7% to 3.3% on headline) even if core was expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. What we got, however, was a whopper, with CPI missing across the board with both headline and core prints coming in below expectations on both a sequential and annual basis. Starting with the headline CPI, it came in at 3.2%, below the 3.3% expected, while MoM CPI also missed expectations, printing unchanged (0.0%), below the consensus of a 0.1% print, and sharply below last month's 0.4% print. A similar picture emerged on core CPI, where the October MoM print was 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus estimate and down from the 0.3% increase in Sept, while YoY managed to drop from 4.1% to 4.0% missing expectations of an unchanged print, and the lowest since Sept 2021! According to the BLS, the index for shelter continued to rise in October (more below) offsetting a decline in the gasoline index and resulting in the seasonally adjusted index being unchanged over the month. The energy index fell 2.5 percent over the month as a 5.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.2 percent in September. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent. As noted above, the core CPI index rose 0.2% in October, after rising 0.3% in September, with the increase driven by rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation, and personal care. The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, communication, and airline fares were among those that decreased over the month. The shelter index increased 0.3% in October, after rising 0.6% the previous month. The index for rent rose 0.5% in October, and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.4% over the month. The lodging away from home index decreased 2.5% in October The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. Of the above, lodging away from home was perhaps the most notable one: it was a key driver of inflation in Sep, today it mean-reverted and was a big catalyst for the core CPI miss. Among the other indexes that rose in October was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which increased 1.9 percent after rising 1.3 percent the preceding month. The indexes for recreation, personal care, and apparel also increased in October. The medical care index rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.2 percent in September. The index for hospital services increased 1.1 percent over the month, and the index for prescription drugs rose 0.8 percent. In contrast, the physicians’ services index fell 1.0 percent in October. The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.8 percent in October, after decreasing 2.5 percent in September. The communication index fell 0.3 percent over the month, and the index for airline fares declined 0.9 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for new vehicles both declined 0.1 percent over the month. Taking a closer look at housing prices we find that the shelter index increased 6.7% over the last year, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in the all items less food and energy index. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+19.2 percent), recreation (+3.2 percent), personal care (+6.0 percent), and household furnishings and operations (+1.7 percent). So what does this drop in inflation mean for US Consumers? Well, it means that in real terms average hourly earnings were... unchanged in October as YoY inflation effectively destroyed all wage gains over the past year. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-unexpected-misses-across-board-core-inflation-lowest-over-2-years
  4. OK. It does seem that most of that insane spending went to Americans and American companies. Mostly ones controlled by BlackRock/vanguard. So it was mostly to the crust, but american crust.
  5. yeah. things were so much better when the left had both houses and the presidency for the first two. but then again, they seemed to focus on regulations and insane spending to the donors. why are you guys so freaked about a balanced budget? separate appropriate bills? LOL, I bet things would work so much better if you all just had full control. Maybe even get Nation of Islam Jefferies to be speaker, if the left takes it.
  6. IT is martial law, and that guy is in the opposition party.
  7. When the reserves are low and everyone is talking war and moving war equipment. supply and demand?
  8. Silly strawman. pretty sure its not legal to kill babies in any civilized society.
  9. 08-10 and 2020 are where the line goes vertical. it is what it is. its the difference between top-down economy driven by stimulus, vs a consumer driven economy that tends to make less bubbles. Supply side doesn't really work without the fed flooding the economy with liquidity and low interest rates.
  10. IT would be OBAMAS staff/aids, fourth term. LOL
  11. See that part of the graph where the line goes vertical in 2020. The only bad thing about those cuts, where the fact the lower and middle quintiles expired.
  12. From the talk on twitter. he is a fan of bunch formations on one side one receiving option on the other.
  13. He got fired for not running it enough. is known for a spread offense. but utilizes a lot of screens.
  14. Jen was talking about a person that was quoting trump. thats hearsay. you all rage so hard you dont read or look at the details.
  15. crazy when a balanced budget is called Hard right concerns. but then again WA-Po is just a DEM mouthpiece.
  16. Near record high federal receipts. and the reasoning per Moody's is the out-of-control spending coupled with our debt sales not having much interest. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGRECPT
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