cle23
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Posts posted by cle23
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33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
It certainly can’t. In fact, I wonder if it is a 4 team trade?
Browns get: 2, 6, 22, 65
Bills get: 1
Giants get: 4, 53, 2019 2nd
Colts get: 12, 35
Who says no?
Cleveland. Pick 22 and 65 to move down from 1 and 4 and give up 35?
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10 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:
Might want to look into previous trades with the JJ numbers before using them. They aren't very good any more. Besides, I ran the numbers up thread and came to basically your offer, but giving 65 back to you instead of 56. Future picks are always devalued 1 round. Here's two trades into the top 2 for QBs from 2016:
Browns give 2 & Future 4 (2634)
Eagles give 8, 77, 100, Future 1, Future 2 (2315)
Titans give 1, 113, & 177 (3088.6)
Rams give 15, 43, 45, 76, Future 1, Future 3 (2670)
That's why I use the base 100 chart now. It was derived from all the draft trades since 2011 and nearly all of them work out in a way that makes sense. Plus you get a feel for the normal premiums paid for specific ranges (top 3 vs top 5 vs top 10).
Browns 2 & future 4 = 96.19
Eagles 8, 77, 100, future 1 & 2 = 118.46
Titans 1, 113, 177 = 105.84
Rams 15, 43, 45, 76, future 1 & 3 = 138.49
You can point to the Jets move with JJ numbers, but with the new chart they paid 152% of the cost of the #3 pick. The offer I put together above is 151% of the #1 pick, which is in line with the Jets move imo.
What are the point values from the St.Louis Washington trade from 2012?
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16 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:
12 / 22 / 2019 1st is #1 overall pick value. I can't see McBeane doing that for potentially the 4th QB. If Cleveland wants that much value, they can give #1.
I think 12 and 22 is fair for 6, and 6 and a 2019 1st is over paying for 4, but no way is Cleveland giving up 1. A team who hasn't had a franchise QB for 25 years can't pass on the top guy on their board. It would be beyond stupid.
And teams get desperate for QB, so anything is possible. Washington traded the 6th overall, plus 2 more 1sts and a 2nd for #2 and RG3. Buffalo is moving up a lot further from 12.
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ESPN Cleveland just floated a rumor of 12 and 22 to Indy for 6, then 6 and 2019 1st for Cleveland's 4th overall.
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10 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:
So far in two different threads Hue and a "Browns Source" both laughed when asked about Allen and/or this three way trade. Laughing is a common response when caught in an uncomfortable cover up/lie.
Just sayin.
It also is a common reaction when presented with something so ridiculous that there is no other response.
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2 hours ago, zevo said:
You can get right the hell outta here mister
I asked nicely!
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3 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:
Probably more to it, like players involved.
Tre'Davious White please.
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1 hour ago, Wayne Cubed said:
Seems like 22 would have to be in the mix. No way Browns just give away a 1st round pick and only end up with 1.
I think it would be:
Bills get 1
Browns get 2, 12, 53 and 2019 2nd
Giants get 4, 22 and 96
No way Cleveland moves down from 1 and 4 to pick up 2, 12, and a couple 2nds. That makes zero sense. The Jets gave up 3 2nds to move up 3 spots, and 1 is pick 37. Cleveland drop 1 and 8 spots at the top of the 1st round for 53 and a 2 next year. Dumbest trade ever.
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2 hours ago, Doc said:
Yeah, they're not. But they're paid a lot more.
Bitonio, when healthy like he was last year, is a top 10 guard, probably pushing top 5. Ziegler is great too. They are both better than Incognito, especially in his current state.
Incognito is a better deal in regards to how cheap his contract is, but he is also 34.
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Browns wouldn't be interested. Bitonio and Zeitler are both better than Incognito.
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20 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:
They didn't essentially trade down from 4, they traded up from 4 to 2. Of course the team that trades back and then back up is going to gain less than the team that only trades back. And Cleveland in this case went from 1, 4, 33, and 35 to 2, 12, 22, and 33, plus they picked up an additional 2nd next year. The cost to go from 6 to 3 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and a future 2nd. The cost I gave for moving from 4 to 2 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and the first pick of the 3rd this year. If you think the Bills price should've been a 2019 1st and 2nd that would be a premium of 68%, which is astronomically higher than even the Jets gave in their deal.
You have Buffalo moving from 12 to 1 for two 1sts, two 2nds, and a third, but you have Cleveland moving from 4 to 2 for a first and two seconds and a 3rd, and Cleveland's 1st is 8 picks higher and their 2nd is 18 picks higher. And like I said, why would Cleveland do a deal where they essentially break even?
You are making Buffalo's move a lot cheaper than Cleveland's. Cleveland should expect that type of trade for the number 4, not for the number 1.
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13 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:
I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above.
We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down.
Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd.
Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds.
I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun.
Even by your point total, Cleveland basically breaks even. No one trades out of the 1st pick to break even, and then essentially trade down from 4 too. If they go from 1st and 4th to 2, 12, and 22 and lose 35, they better be getting a huge ransom back. 1st and 2nd next year, and more.
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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:
This is why Miami was right to trade him.
You're paying $15M for a possession receiver; he's now making more money than AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Alshon Jeffery, all of whom are better players.
You can have him Cleveland.
Dez Bryant is average at best, and Jeffery isn't elite by any means.
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3 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:
Top pick 2nd round is 550 points, Bills pick 20 for example is 800. This would be a fair deal.
That is current year. Picks from next year aren't worth as much, generally a 2nd is worth a 1st the following year, not 2 2nds and a 3rd.
Pick 33 is hugely valuable in trades now that there is a gap between rounds. It alone would be worth more than that trade. Teams have players that fall and plenty of time to negotiate trades.
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1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:
I think the Giants want to trade the pick. I think they'll get more if Allen goes #1.
I too think the Browns are trading out of 4.
IMO they'd love to add one of Fitzpatrick / Ward or maybe James to their secondary at pick 12 and someone like Hurst or Payne at DT at pick 22. Between Garrett / Ogbah / Nassib / Collins, they aren't too bad at DE. CB and DT need some serious help.
Collins is a LB and Nassib is pretty bad. There is talk of Ogbah at DT if Chubb is the pick, and we drafted 2 DTs last year in Ogunjobi and Brantley who were pretty good. Also had Coley who started and was pretty good.
I'd rather have Barkley, but I'd be ok with Chubb. I'd be ok with a trade for 12, 22, and next year's 1 too because I think we could still end up with Ward, Fitzpatrick, Payne, or Edmunds, and then use 64 with 22 to move up again and grab another top level player. 3 top 15 or so picks would be huge, and still have 33 and 35 along with 2 1sts next year.
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6 minutes ago, billspro said:
That is over paying for pick 7
Not with a top QB on the board. Not with Buffalo's need. Not even close.
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It'll cost more than a 2nd and a 4th to move up. QB premium.
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1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:
Dont look now folks but if Terrence Fedes contract is a non qualifying comp pic contract(likely) the Bills are actually -1 in the comp formula and would get one because Phillip Gaines contract (630,000 yr)is already a Non qualifier.
You completely made this up.
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1 hour ago, Herb62 said:
Take the kid from Richmond in round 2, he is a steal.
I think he goes to NE at 31.
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You have Cleveland taking 1st and 2nd round safeties when they took a 1st round SS last year and traded for a FS this off-season.
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7 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:
Totally disagree. I think the scenario CBS outlined is already overpaying. In your scenario they would be giving Cleveland what amounts to enough value to move up to number #2.
I understand the spiel about it being a sellers market this year because of the quarterbacks, blah blah. In the scenario CBS outlined Buffalo is already over paying by a high second round value. In yours they are over paying by a 1st round value. 12, 53, and 65 is a much closer value.
Cleveland doesn't need quantity of picks. They have 5 of the first 64 picks. If they trade down, they better make whoever it is overpay. I don't drop from 4 to 12 without 12 and 22, and probably more, or at least 12, 53, and 1 next year.
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I loved The Last Kingdom on Netflix. Kind of the opposite side of Vikings on History. It's embellished like any show, but it pretty historically accurate overall. I really like the actor who plays Alfred. It's my favorite series on quite a while.
Just finished Longmire on Netflix. Pretty standard "cop" show but it was worth watching.
And Westworld on HBO. Awesome concept and great story. Season 2 is out in the next few weeks.
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5 hours ago, Limeaid said:
Browns are setting themselves to set up a trade for a first this year, a first next year and more picks.
Maybe at 4. They are drafting a QB at 1.
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2 hours ago, tannins said:
Bold move... Bills move up to #1 for #12, #22 and next year first round. Cleveland then swaps #4 #12 and #22 to Giants for #2 and Odell.
It would take 12, 22, 53, 56, and next year's 1st to start the conversation for #1.
Trade Rumors? (only Rumors)
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
There was only one other trade into the top two that didn't add at least 120% value and that was the trade from 3 to 2 last year. No chance that Cleveland does not get a huge return while giving up 1 & 4. Adding a random 4th rounder is worth next to nothing.
I like the creativity and understand that this is a Bills' board so they are going to get the best deal, but none of these trades have any chance of actually happening at the values shown. Cleveland is not moving out of the first pick to break even or anywhere near even.