CritMark

Your assumption is the three top QBs are the three you named. Not all evaluators agree and many that have those three at the top are including Mayfield in that same group with the drop off after the top four. It's going to come down to who is available at a spot the Bills are willing to trade up to. Nobody is going to tip their hand in advance. Once all the UFAs have signed, we will have a clearer picture on who is likely to draft a QB.

You are correct. However, looking at landing spots for Cousins, I think AZ is the least likely. Given the competition in that division, I think that he would look elsewhere unless the economics were so compelling. The Rams look to be a good team on the rise and the Seahawks are still a formidable team to face twice a year. That is going to be a very difficult division to reach the playoffs in if he goes there.

Your first point probably raises his value, he is clearly not stupid. Getting a 3rd round pick for a starting QB in his prime fits my definition of 'little compensation'.

Everyone is talking about the pick at 13. I would look at the #12 pick from Cincy. Rumors are already floating around that they would entertain a trade for a lower 1st round and a 2nd round. Obviously whose picks they are will make a big difference. The only team with a big need at QB between the Bills and Bengals is AZ. With nobody under contract I expect them to sign a veteran. Their interest in a QB, if they do that, depends on who they sign and who is still on the board. That notwithstanding, that is where I would target for a trade, be it that trade only or the first of two.

Yeah that seems to be fairly clear. I didn't even add to my calculations the $7MM it is going to cost Washington to sign there draft class. Cousins will walk and the Skins will get little compensation. Someone should write a book on how to mismanage a starting caliber NFL QB contract. Text book bad job.

I stand correct. In researching it more, the Transition tag would be just under $29MM. The premise still holds however. That plus the Smith deal puts them WAY over the cap. Why would a team bite on a one year rental at $29MM? I call him a rental because Cousins has not agreed to a long term deal in the past two seasons and clearly wasn't this year or the Skins don't deal for Smith. Also, the $29MM puts him out of reach for a few destinations he might prefer. It's more than the Broncos have, just a few million short of what the Bills have. That puts Cousins choices at very few, reducing his negotiating position for that long term deal. If you want to get even more granular, look at the expected cap hit to sign this years draft class. It is projected to cost the Bills $8.4MM to sign thier draft picks (source: https://overthecap.com/draft/) so if you subtract that from the current available Bills cap space, they would not have the cap space to take Cousins at $29MM. Bottom line is trying to gamble on the Transition Tag for Cousins with the Smith deal could blow up the Skins for a decade.

I don't think they could if they wanted to. They only have $36MM in cap space before the Smith deal. The transition tag will cost them $34MM. If nobody wanted to take that contract at $34MM, the Skins would need to gut their team and knowing it would be a fire sale, they would get 75 cents on the dollar if they were lucky. The Skins would need to pick up the remainder of a lot of contacts to make up the difference. It would take a pair of brass balls to try that or the stupidest owner in the NFL. I guess Snyder may qualify for one of those descriptions.

I think you are right. Also, given the small cap space difference between the Bills and Broncos, if the Bill s can make it work, so can the Broncos and I think that would be Cousins' preference. The Bills have a chance to move up in this draft to grab a QB without major draft capital cost for two reasons. It is a QB rich draft so they don't need to move all the way up to #1 to get a quality guy and they have two first round picks this year, so they can likely put a deal together without giving up next year's 1st round pick.

I haven't read all 22 pages here so forgive me if I am repeating something. As I posted a few days ago, I expected Cousins to be gone from Washington and Smith to be traded. I guessed wrong on where Smith went but not overly surprised, except for how early the deal got done. I think it's a good deal for both. I think Cousins decision is his alone, meaning he won't just go anywhere for money. He will get plenty. He has stated he wants to go where he can win. I think his first best option will be Denver if they can clear some cap space. If they can make the economics work at all, that's where he lands. Don't underestimate Elway getting the guy he wants. That may be tough so looking at QB needy teams, the Browns and Jets have the most to spend. I think Cousins will not want to go the the Cleveland dumpster fire so the Jets are a real possibility. The Bills are in a tough spot because they barely have more cap space than Denver and in this case, the two first round picks may work against them because they have to sign them and for more money that most teams just because they have two picks in round 1. I have seen the Vikings suggested as a possible landing spot for Cousins but I just don't see that happening. To much love by the fans in both Bridgewater and Keenum to not sign one of them. Ownership would catch hell if they let both of those guys walk and did anything but win the Super Bowl with Cousins. The madness begins.

Absolutely agree, but that is the risk the player has to accept. The grass is not always greener. If the decision to change schools turns out badly, the player can only look in the mirror for answers.

Agree on both points, but... What are the traits that can be taught/learned/fixed, and those that are innate. When looking at all the variables that make up any evaluation of a college QB that is moving to the NFL, I struggle with how to rank them in importance and are there deal breakers because if they don't have the skill yet they never will. Of course you look at the basic stats but every one of them is dependent on the skill level of the players around them and those they played against, just for starters. For me, I struggle most with questions that are qualitative. How good is there decision making? If they have been playing for many years, can you change poor habits there? Can you teach 'touch'? There are QBs that seem to sense when a pocket is breaking down and others have no clue. Can you help someone improve that? Do they rise up or wilt in a big game and can you change what's between the ears? My issue with Allen is everyone seems to be dismissing a lot of very important traits that make up a good QB that he struggles with like every one of them can be overcome because he is big and can throw the ball a long way. I think that is a very flawed assumption. The single most important word in your post was "IF".

Obviously the devil is in the details. I would add to freshmen any athlete not on scholarship. Expanding on my original idea, any athlete on a 50% or less scholarship can transfer without a wait. Look at the Mayfield situation. While the stories vary on what did or did not get communicated or was going to be communicated, the fact remains that Mayfield was never on scholarship at TTU. If a school didn't think it important enough to get any athlete on scholarship, why can't they move at any time without penalty. In absence of a scholarship, what commitment has the school made to the athlete?

A very legitimate concern. Here's an idea that popped in to my head that is likely a bad one as I have not spent any time thinking it through. What if the restriction isn't in the transfer but the scholarship? Perhaps limit the amount of the scholarship offer to an equivalent 75% or 50% for the first year of the transfer. Just a thought.

I agree with you in concept but I don't think it holds up to today's reality. I seems to me that a lot of top athletes are selecting schools based almost exclusively for their football/basketball program. Should they is a different question. Look at the mess at Tennessee. It was handled so badly that several coaches said thanks but no thanks. Why should the players have to suffer the consequences when a coach they went there to play for leaves and the institution messes up the replacement process so badly that the school ends up with its 4th or 5th choice as head coach? Why should a player be stuck at a school that changed coaches and the new system is totally inconsistent with that players skill set? You you could argue that it is an opportunity to show you can prosper in any system but that doesn't hold any value in some circumstances. Say I am a pure pocket passer (Josh Rosen from UCLA) and the new coach wants to run a Louisville style offense that requires a QB like Lamar Jackson or Deshaun Watson. Rosen does not work in that scenario and it is likely the new coach would recruit a kid that fits his scheme. Why should Rosen have to sit out a year? Worse yet, why should Rosen's growth as a pocket passer be compromised by forcing him to try to adapt to a system that will not serve him well in college or in the NFL? BTW - I think this is primarily an issue for Football. Basketball with the one and done rule means the best players would have a much smaller window of impact.

To quote a famous movie line, what we have here is a failure to communicate. You are talking about a specific situation and I am talking about policy. I want to see an actual strict policy vigorously enforced. I want an environment where all students feel safe and potential perpetrators know there are serious consequences for their actions. That did not and currently does not exist at MSU. That did not exist at Baylor. If you look at the stats, it does not exist on a large number of campuses around the country. I'm sorry if you can't distinguish between the two. That said, I will back away from this conversation. It's obvious with the name calling you are incapable of intelligent discourse. To bad too, this is a serious issue worth some serious conversation. I wish you well.

Yeah there were more than a few balls that his WRs flat out dropped. Unfortunately there were also some really bad throws to open receivers. Three other plays stood out to me. The first pass of the game, he had the receiver open in the flat. Allen threw it at his knees forcing the receiver to go to the ground to catch the ball. Completions yes, but again, no opportunity for YAC. The play right at the half was a Hail Mary. No problem with those going incomplete with 7 or 8 guys bunched up in the end zone. My problem is with why this particular attempt went incomplete. He threw the ball five yards out of the back of the end zone so there was no opportunity for a completion. Watch at 3:57 on the tape. This was the easiest pick six a DB ever had and he simple missed the ball. Given Hawaii lost the game in OT, my guess is the DB had nightmares about that one for days. The kid is big and strong and can throw the ball. My concern is can he throw a catchable ball in the NFL? Only completing 56% of his throws in the Mountain West isn't confidence inspiring when he has to face NFL defenses next year. Most of his throws are to a receiver who is facing him full on. I was trying to think of a comp for him and the best I could come up with was a slightly less athletic Colin Kaepernick. Big arm but hampered by poor mechanics and the inability to throw anything with touch. 100mph fastballs, no problem. Trying to consistently get a ball into a receiver who can (a) catch it and (b) run with it after the catch, not so much.

Why is it a weak suggestion. What they did was send the message that if you sexually abuse a female on campus you will kicked off the team. That's it. People don't care what you say, especially when it comes to cracking down on these types of things. They will pay attention to what you do. Hold a team meeting and tell the team that any allegation will be turned over to to campus security, the Title 9 office, local police and the District Attorney's office. Tell all the players, directly involved or not, as well that they are to cooperate fully with all investigations and any failure to do so or any evidence that the information they provided was not 100% consistent with their knowledge of the incident will result in immediate dismissal from the team. Tell which of those messages will get the attention of the players? Hopefully they will never have to, but if they did have to enforce this position they would only have to do it once. The message that they take these things seriously and there will be consequences will heard loud and clear.

Awesome dB thanks. I just watched the Wyoming v Iowa game. i didn't see that game when it happened but it was very interesting. The good: He made a few pretty good throws. One sure TD that his receiver bobbled in the end zone. The bad: Watch closely and you will see almost zero yards after catch. He can throw to a receiver but he can't throw them open. I don't think I saw a single receiver get even five YAC once the whole game. The ugly: His two INTs were both horrible decisions. These were no great defensive plays, the ball was poorly thrown on one and never should have been thrown in the other. He also had another two that should have been picked but the defensive back failed to make what looks like an easy play. Only one game and not decisive by any means, but unfortunately exactly what I expected to see.

Mark Andrews is the best TE in the draft from my perspective but you will have to spend a lot more draft capital to get him. A lot of 'experts' have him going late 1st round.

My sense is similar to yours but I draw a slightly different conclusion. Is just kicking out the bad guys enough? Should they have worked more diligently to see that the player was charged instead of just shipping the player off to another school where he is free to repeat his offenses? Accepting that the football program can not charge them, their active and vocal participation in the process sends a completely different message than just kicking them off the team. I have a daughter who went to college and subsequently grad school and fortunately did not experience any violence against her. But as a father I am telling you if the response from the program that the offender played for was "We kicked him off the team" I would want their head, forget about their job.

The only way these schools are going to take this seriously is to institute a system wide, ultra strict policy (right now each school makes their own rules on how to investigate) and any non-compliance is an automatic death penalty, ZERO scholarships for ALL mens athletics for 5 years. Any subsequent violations doubles the duration. Let them start losing millions in revenue and see if that gets there attention. You are correct but as the system is currently constructed, each institution sets their own rules on how to investigate. I heard a stat this morning that 20% of schools have the athletic department investigate allegations against athletes. If this is what these schools think is a fair and impartial methodology, just imagine what kind of education they are providing your children.

I have seen a lot of Rudolph, a little of White and none of Lauletta. Mason and White are both going to need some time. White seems to fly under the radar but is a pretty good short to intermediate passer. Rudolph also had the benefit of a much better receiving corp. I think either could get there but neither is a year 1 starter. Not sure if it was intentional or not, but as you have them numbered is the round I think they will go in.

Buffalo716 - another very good write up. I expect Rudolph to go in the first round. Solid guy, needs some work but there is something to work with. Short of trading down I think he may very well be the top QB still on the board at 21.

You may very well be right but here is my rationale. Last year Mahomes was projected as a late 1st to mid 2nd round pick. A team traded all the way up to 10 to take him and that team has a QB under contract through 2018. Everyone has Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield & Allen as sure 1st round picks. Jackson and Rudolph are ranked about where Mahomes was. In Fact, several 'experts' have Jackson ranked well above any position Mahomes was last year, Given there are so many projected so high, I expect a busier than normal round 1 for QBs. But as I said, just my guess.

It’s always fun this time of year to try and guess what will happen on draft day. This year is particularly fun because of the larger than usual stable of seemingly quality QBs. Most draft pundits will qualify their expectation of a team taking a QB with what happens if said team picks up a FA QB. Given that, here is my prognostication on what teams will do, including where I think the FA QBs will land. My authority? None other than a life long student of the game. So, for you reading enjoyment… If you can believe it, there are 30 Unrestricted Free Agent quarterbacks available at the end of the season. However, 24 of them will likely not be starting for any NFL team by design. So I have only concerned myself with six: Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, and the entire Vikings QB room of Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum and Sam Bradford. Brees and Garoppolo aren’t going anywhere. Expect both to be resigned to a multi-year deal. The Vikings would like to keep both Bridgewater and Keenum but that is unlikely. My sense is they will end up signing Bridgewater. So that leave 3, Keenum, Bradford & Cousins. To that I will add Alex Smith who I fully expect to be traded. So let’s start with the veterans first. Cousins goes to Denver. He wants out of Washington and that gives the Broncos time to work on developing their young guys or at least kicking the can down the road for a few years. They are now out of the draft market for a QB in 2018, at least in round 1. Keenum goes to AZ. He wants both to start somewhere and not be in a situation where he might find himself as a back-up again on opening day. That eliminates the possibility of he and Bridgewater both being on the Vikings in 2018. I think AZ is still in play to draft a QB given they have nobody under contract and the current CBA makes it affordable given where they are drafting. Smith goes to Cleveland via trade. Cleveland will still draft a QB at #4. Bradford goes to Washington on a two-year deal and they look to draft a QB in the first round for Bradford to mentor. The problem is, that still leaves more QB needy teams than QBs available in the draft. So looking in to my crystal ball, here is where the QBs go in the first round. #2 Giants – Josh Rosen – The perfect guy to sit behind Manning and learn, develop a pro body and perfect his craft. #4 Browns – Sam Darnold – After taking Barkley #1, they get their future FQB to learn from Smith. #5 TRADE – I expect someone to trade up with the Broncos to get their next FQB. I see three teams that might pull the trigger here: Buffalo with two first round picks, Arizona because they know the guy they want will not drop to them at 15 and … here is my ‘What In The Hell Were You Thinking’ pick – The New Orleans Saints select Baker Mayfield for life after Brees. #6 Jets – Lamar Jackson – Even with Josh Allen still on the board, the Jets select Jackson. NY is a tough place to play and while Allen has promise, the fans will not be very patient. Jackson’s dual threat abilities will buy him some more time and at least put an entertaining product on the field. #12 – TRADE – Josh Allen will be too big a draw for a QB needy team to wait. The Cardinals trade up three spots to take Allen. It won’t cost them a lot to move up and if they wait, Allen will be gone by 15. #13 – Redskins – Mason Rudoph – The Skins would have liked someone else but their choices are limited since their strategy was to wait for Allen or Mayfield to drop to them. Bad gamble that didn’t pay off. Having hitched their mentor QB wagon to Bradford, they must pull the trigger here on Rudolph. So there you have it, six QBs in the top 13 picks. Please let me know what you think or if you are interested in what I am smokin. Wait, one bonus pick: The Patriots select their next guy to sit behind Brady at the end of the 3rd round in Kyle Lauletta, OB from Richmond.