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This thread is almost as bad as if the bills were playing. Calm down people, the game has a lot left.

95% is based off non contextual win probabilities. Ignoring the playoff situation, Ravens would be very strong favorites. If you assume that Vegas does a decent job of setting odds, we are implied around 80-85% to get in depending on the book.

Sadly you're starting to date yourself and many won't get it.

I still think the ravens have a good chance of one and done against the browns with the winner of the east hosting the conference game. Their offense is certainly more well rounded that in some prior Lamar years, but explosive isn't a word I'd use

Taron Johnson. Zappe has shown to be erratic and off target when throwing short, hot, and under pressure. TJ is going to get a pick, as well as being part of a pressure package on a sack that leads to a big loss or turnover. I expect the whole defense to show well here. I'd love to predict a big offensive game, but just don't see it will be needed.

Whichever QB among Josh, Lamar, and Tua ends up with 2 more wins, 575+ total yards, 5+ yds, and 1- int will get it. If none of them do that, there's a good chance it ends up Hill or CmC. It feels like it would take a lot for Dak or Purdy to come back from recent narratives. But I guess if either of them have the best 2 game stretch ever, it's possible...

You're not reading it right. In the PIT losing scenarios, they have to lose once between week 17 and 18. This is listing all of the ways we can clinch a playoff seed next week. Even if the scenario you suggested plays out, I don't know what about the Steelers makes you so sure they would win against Bal. I know you have posted multiple times indicating that you don't understand playoff seeding, but trust basically everyone else in the world that understands there are far more ways for the bills to get in at 10-7 at this point than to be out. Regardless, win out and we're in is the most sensible path.

For us, the best chance of playoffs is chiefs winning. They don't matter for seeding for us.

Josh is clearly pretty widely liked around the league. That was a lot of positive messaging coming from the other team fresh off a loss.

Maybe their production team was off for a day or two?

@TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th Turns out it happens every few years. To bring it home for us, EJ Manual did it in 2015 against the Jags. Fumble TD, Pick 6 in 7 seconds of game time.

My guess is your guess is wrong.

What about the raiders' defense?

I've had a few beers today, but I'm seeing the 2 seed with us hosting Miami, home for divisional, and hosting KC for conference (I see Baltimore losing to the browns). Either way, BUF/KC conference game is becoming more likely. Th alternative is looking like @Miami, @BAL, @KC.

The reference was the throw left to Davis, which also went past the line of scrimmage. Not the other bad intentional grounding, with a receiver in the area short of the line.

Bass has been sketchy this year, but that's not a good measure. It's been clear for years that we want the ball to land around the 5 and force them to make a decision.

Yes, we can clinch next week if several games go the right way.

What were the characteristics of the play that would have put it on a film of greatness?

That's only of you're confident in BAL. There are many scenarios where KC gets the 2 seed and Ravens lose to us/Miami/Cleveland/etc. I'd still put a 1 out of 3 shot that AFC championship is in KC this year. Most likely is Bal, followed by KC, then i'd put BUF/MIA even odds but slightly behind KC.

It is misleading. There was no lane that would have got him a touchdown. The blockers were too far ahead, and the blockers are O line blockers, not punt team blockers. Safeties were also in play, just not in frame. With the speed we had out there (relatively) there was no way he was getting through. It's an incredibly low probability play that we covered well.

10-6 brings more teams into the mix. We have a decent chance, and could be higher after this week. It's not a sure thing by any means though. There is a path where 10-6 could be locked into a slot by the end of next week though.

Disagree. We outplayed them on offense and defense. We managed to lose the turnover battle by 3 and still won. The team showed up to play against a team that was playing with a ton of emotion.

8-9 still had a path to a wild card spot. Pretty much every game had to go a certain way over the next 3 weeks, but possible. I guess, in TBD terms it was a "somewhat probable" chance to making the playoffs.

You commit to scoring or commit to burning clock. Against this team, each play where the clock kept running increased our chances of winning. If we scored quick, we had to make a 2 point still.

Still a bit over a coin flip