DabillsDaBillsDaBills
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Posts posted by DabillsDaBillsDaBills
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To break it down a bit
If we finish 6-0 down the stretch we have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs
5-1 puts us around 95%. It depends on who the loss is to. A loss to the Dolphins hurts a lot more than a loss to the Eagles or Cowboys
4-2 is close to a coin flip. It's going to vary a lot based on where we lose.
3-3 has a few possibilities, but it's highly unlikely we make it. Maybe a 1% chance
2-4 we're talking 1 in a million. Miami loses out and NYJ/NE don't make it to 8 wins. Bills win the division at 8-9
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7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
It’s going to be Allen. You can see the groundwork being laid.Yep McD is down to only 2 options. Blame the GM for not assembling a strong enough roster (I don't see that working at all, Beane is widely viewed as one of the best GM's in the business). Or blame the franchise QB for turning it over too much / losing his mojo.
I don't think either option will work, but he has a better chance of pinning blame on Josh.
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6 minutes ago, Estro said:
I'm still trying to figure out what "subculture" is. Anyone care to expand.....
It seems to imply that the teams overall culture is fine, but that the offense specifically has a culture problem.
McD's comments here just scream CYA to me. He's trying to setup the next scapegoat now that there isn't a coordinator to blame.
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Jets 22
Bills 13
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34 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
Simple question, want to check the headspace here
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I think the turnover narrative is way over-blown. Josh has about 6 BAD turnovers this year (fumbles vs Jets and Denver, INT vs Pats, Jets, Broncos, Bengals).
The rest are a combination of game scenario and bad luck.
"Arm punts" on 3rd and long from our side of the field and taking a deep shot. Losing a fumble on a hook and ladder vs Patriots on a last second desperation play. Davis letting a perfect throw go right through his hands. Tipped throws at the LOS. DB's making great catches and our WR's not breaking up 50/50 throws (some overlap here with arm punts).
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7 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:
6-3 loss to the Browns.
Memorable because I believe Jauron got fired after that one.
I also recall a game against the Jags, Leftwich was the QB. Jags completed (4) 4th Downs on the final drive, including a 4th and 20 something. Won it with a TD on the final 4th down as time expired. That was a kick in the crotch
Interestingly enough the next week after the 6-3 "game" we beat the Jets 16-13 in OT. The OT featured a 3 and out by the Jets, then Fitz threw an INT, then Sanchez threw an INT, then the Bills drove down for the winning FG. One of the few "neither team wants to win" type games that I can remember the Bills coming out on top.
Jauron lasted a few more weeks after that. He was fired in week 10 after losing to the Titans 41-17. That Titans game featured TO staring down Trent Edwards after Trent air-mailed a throw when he was wide open, and Trent throwing TWO pick 6's in the final 3 minutes. Bud Adams flipped off the Bills as we were leaving the field. Apparently that was the straw that broke the camels back for Ralph and he immediately fired Jauron.
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Just now, vanislebills44 said:
every time josh checks it down and doesn't force a throw into tight coverage he should get atleast an attaboy
McDermott: Best I can do is an angry glare
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4 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:
I get the sentiment here and certainly there's a lot to criticize when it comes to McD, but I don't get the fans asking to see "accountability" as if the man is supposed to... what? Is he supposed to fire himself?
Just because a HC isn't immediately let go doesn't mean he's not being held accountable. I think sports fans are too quick to think of a coach being fired as the only acceptable response when a coach f's up.
But just for some perspective, Andy Reid had some brutal playoff losses in Kansas City before Mahomes came along (to say nothing of his consecutive NFC championship game losses in Philly). Now he's paired with an elite QB and is leading the new NFL dynasty. The majority opinion after KC's 2015 divisional loss to the Patriots was "same old Andy Reid chokes in the postseason, he'll never win it all." If he was "held accountable" after that game and fired, is KC where they're at right now?
I think Terry is in a tough position. McDermott and Beane have given Buffalo sports the most consistent success we've seen in over twenty years. Now I firmly believe Josh Allen deserve the bulk of the credit for that, but if we're holding McDermott responsible for the brutal losses, we also have to give him some credit for the success as well.
Just trying to play some devil's advocate.
I find the Andy Reid comparisons interesting.
1) Reid had more playoff success in Philly than McD has in Buffalo. While McNabb was no slouch, it's clear that Allen is the better QB.
2) Philly fired Reid, the most successful HC in team history, before they won a SB
3) Philly only won a SB after firing Reid
4) Philly fired that SB winning coach, Pederson, 3 years later. They made the SB again with the next HC 2 years later
If Reid needed Mahomes to get over the playoff hump to win a SB, what does McD need?
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18 minutes ago, Airseven said:
An exception for Mahomes. Common for Allen.Allen looks to be a bit of a stat compiler. Numbers look good but he remains inefficient on the whole. He’s had two quality starts this season and the rest somewhere between middling-struggling.
Take a look at Mahomes game log this year and let me know what you think. I see 2 great games, 2 tire-fire games, and the rest are pretty mid. Is he a stat compiler too ?
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9 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:
What’s crazy his stats are nearly identical last year in his 6 starts. Dude is quiet quitting
I think playing his best half of the season, with a high ankle sprain and broken shoulder, is the opposite of quiet quitting.
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McD was the driving force behind the decision
Beane/Pegula signed off on it
Players actions played a part in McD's decisionn
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15 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:
They aren’t rhetorical. I genuinely wanted an answer, and the answer I got was basically “hindsight is 20/20”. Just because the outcome wasn’t what we wanted doesn't make it a bad call.
I'm curious if calling back to back all out blitzes normally results in giving up a big gain on the 2nd play. My guess is that it would, but i have no data to back that up
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7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Pine Tar Gate?
I noticed that guys hand during the game last night, but just thought it was a massive scab from a cut. Is pine tar actually illegal in the NFL ? With all the stick 'em they allow on gloves you'd think they wouldn't care.
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1 hour ago, Philp8980 said:
What happened to completing the process of a catch? And survi ing the ground? Does that only apply when the player is going out of bounds? Still don't know what a catch is in 2023.
A player who makes a catch may advance the ball. A forward pass is complete (by the offense) or intercepted (by the defense) in the field of play, at the sideline, or in the end zone if a player, who is inbounds:
a. secures control of the ball in his hands or arms prior to the ball touching the ground; and
b. touches the ground inbounds with both feet or with any part of his body other than his hands; and
c. after (a) and (b) have been fulfilled, performs any act common to the game (e.g., tuck the ball away, extend it forward, take an additional step, turn upfield, or avoid or ward off an opponent), or he maintains control of the ball long enough to do so.
2.) If a player, who satisfied (a) and (b), but has not satisfied (c), contacts the ground and loses control of the ball, it is an incomplete pass if the ball hits the ground before he regains control, or if he regains control out of bounds
Was he considered down by contact before the ball was ripped out so he didn't need to meet 'c' ? I don't really know. I think if the ball popped out like that, without a defender touching him, it would've been an incompletion.
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16 minutes ago, Einstein said:
He really does.
There is zero evidence of the fire he used to have.
I've scoffed at the idea that Josh is 'checked out' or whatever, but I thought his lack of enthusiasm after the go-ahead TD with 1:55 left was extremely telling.
Maybe he was trying to not show any emotion after the taunting penalty last week. Maybe during the 2 minute warning McD told the offense to not score on the first play and to burn more time off the clock. Maybe he's shell-shocked from the number of times he's scored a late go-ahead TD and still lost.
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I guess Josh's offseason made Cook fumble the first play from scrimmage.
And for Gabe Davis to turn a 1st down from the DEN 15 into an INT.
And for Kincaid to turn a 3rd down conversion into a punt.
Murray had a bad drop too, although that play looked like it was only going to gain a few yards.
The 2nd INT and the botched handoff with Cook were bad, but Josh had a pretty good game overall.
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I can't see this team making the playoffs even with a win next week.
We're up to 6 straight games of the offense sputtering. The DEF has been mostly bad as well even if it's forgivable given the injury situation. This is no longer a blip. This is who the Bills are this season.
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12 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:
The loss is mostly on the offence for sure.
But once AGAIN, the defence can’t make a clutch stop.
0-4 this year now in these opportunities . Haven’t made a clutch stop with under 5 minutes to go once this year.
Lets try to keep name calling out of this by the way eh👍
Special teams was ass tonight too. 12 men on the FG is an obvious blunder, but Sam Martin was averaging 44 yards on punts with no hang time to the center of the field. Big return allowed on a short kickoff too
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Don't get me wrong, the players made a LOT of mistakes tonight, but 12 men on the field there is a fireable mistake.
We had used back to back timeouts after Broncos kneeldowns and McD had ~5 minutes of real time to figure out what to do. The decision was to have 12 men on the field.
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15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
Now show how many teams won scoring 18 points or less. In most of those losing efforts where the D gave up 24+ points they had the same thing in common... the offense was not scoring and turning over the football. A defense can only do so much when the offense keeps putting them back on the field.
I don't care about the clock. The clock changes to be normal ToP with just one 5 minute drive by the offense instead of turning the football over after 14 seconds. Our offense gave them two extra possessions. Again, the defense stopped the Bengals 6 times. They scored 3 points the entire second half. Our offense did nothing until mid 4th quarter. The game wasn't even close before last min offense. The offense was the problem this game not the defense.
Now I am done with you because we are just going in circles and you haven't retorted anything.
13 times this season a team has won scoring 18 points or fewer. Note I'm using 'team' and not 'offense' so I'm not counting a game like the Jets vs Bills in week 1 where the Jets O scored 16 and had a special teams TD push it to 22.
Our offensive output would give us a 10% chance of winning while our defensive effort would give 5% based on the NFL averages this season.
Neither side of the ball played well enough to deserve a win, but slight edge to the Offense for being just a little bit better than the Defense. ST was bad too
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6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
The offense could have overcome 24 points by scoring on ANY of the 6 drives they were given. Thats nowhere near having to "play a perfect game." If you can't score once out of 6 drives then that's the problem. That same one drive takes 5 mins and suddenly the ToP is only two minutes difference. You know jack all about football. That is not a lot for an offense to overcome at all. Not even sure why you are including "that featured 4 timeouts (1 injury, 1 Bills TO, 1 Bengals TO, and the 2 minute warning)." because that doesn't add to ToP on the game clock. If anything it gives our D a rest so its a good thing. Our offense sure didn't give em any rest.
Complete list of games this season where a defense allowed 24+ points and forced 0 turnovers in a win:
Week 1:
Dolphins 36 Chargers 34
Week 2:
Giants 31 Cardinals 28
Titans 27 Chargers 24 (OT)
Falcons 25 Packers 24
Week 3:
Seahawks 37 Panthers 27
Week 4:
Eagles 34 Commanders 31
6 times out of 136 games and not once since week 4. I guess my initial estimate of the DEF giving us a 10-20% chance of winning was too generous.
As for the bolded section, that's exactly the reason I included it. The Bengals shortest drive was short because of timeouts, not because the DEF got a quick stop. I thought spelling that out would be redundant and an insult to other poster's intelligence. My apologies for misestimating you.
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19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
Why is 24 points too much for our offense to overcome?
Our TOP was bad because on our 3 punts, we ran 10 plays. Our INT was on 2 plays.
If it takes only 24 points on defense to give us a 10-20% chance of winning?
The shortest Bengals possession was a 1:52 TD drive that featured 4 timeouts (1 injury, 1 Bills TO, 1 Bengals TO, and the 2 minute warning). Our offense did have 2x 3 and outs and a quick turnover, but they would have to play a perfect game to have TOP be close to even.
24 points, 400 yards, 0 turnovers, 1 sack, and 36 minutes TOP is a lousy defensive game. It's not impossible to win in those circumstances, but it's a lot for an offense to overcome.
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15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
It doesn't matter if they gave up back to back drives. Its the same points if its back to back or 1 score in 2 different quarters. It's over the course of the whole game. The offense had 6 drives they could have scored on where the defense held them to no points and they did diddly with it other than 3 and out or turn the ball over. We turned the ball over twice to an elite offense and the rag tag defense still held them to 24 points.
As for the rest... ifs ifs ifs. None of it happened so it doesn't count. How about the tripping that would have given us a first down and 15 more yards. We could have went on to score, you don't know. It's all ifs.
You can say all you want. The fact is the offense scored 18 points and the defense allowed 24. If you expect a rag tag defense to hold an elite team under 18 points, you are out of your mind.
There's more to a game than just points. Do you think the Bills DEF (24 points allowed) played better than the Jets DEF (27 points allowed) this week ?
Turnovers, TOP, and Yards all matter and our defense was absolutely gashed the entire game without forcing a turnover.
Looking at points allowed, turnovers forced, TOP, and yards allowed the DEF gave us maybe a 10-20% chance of winning the game. I'd put the offense around the same percentile.
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Around the NFL, Week 12 of 18
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
It's supposed to help with concussions/head injuries
https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/3819893-what-are-nfl-players-wearing-on-their-necks/