DabillsDaBillsDaBills
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Posts posted by DabillsDaBillsDaBills
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I'm going with the Bills this week.
Prime-time home game, Dolphins are spiralling, and Josh historically owns the Dolphins.
We're 12.5 point favorites, next largest spread is only 7.5.
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Bills 31
JETE 21
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3 hours ago, Success said:
On the 2-point conversion point: clearly, we need more creative play designs there.
That was really disappointing to me. Those looked like regular plays that we run in low-leverage situations. Collinsworth was even saying on that last one how he expected the Bills to pull out something that teams practice every day for that situation & that was more unexpected, but it ended up just being an out to Coleman.
It's hard to gauge Brady as an OC in general, just because he has Allen and Allen makes just about everything work. But Brady needs to work on those 2-point situations, imo.
Going back to the AFCCG we've now failed 5 consecutive 2 point conversions. Pretty insane with Josh Allen as QB
We really need to figure something out on short yardage, have to have it, type plays
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10 minutes ago, wjag said:
This is a head scratcher. So new kicker, new punter and new place kick holder by week two????
Did the punter get hurt? Seemed like he was booming it during the game.. Didn't notice any issues with the punter or his punting...
You must've missed his 28 yard punt in the 4th Q.
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4 hours ago, Jauronimo said:
We left early. I would typically stay until the end of any game but when my dad asked if we were good with beating the traffic it was hard to say no. We were in the lot at noon, its 40-25, the Bills had just punted it back to the Ravens, Henry is closing in on 200 yards and the Bills have shown no indication that they can even slow the Ravens down. Didn't feel like the time to ask him to double our drive time back to the hotel for a less than 1% chance of winning.
If a bunch of guys who watched from their couch say this makes me a bad fan I guess I'll have to own it.
I left the same time you did, for the same reason. My dad (getting up there in years) wanted to leave after the Henry TD made it 40-25 so that we could beat the traffic on our drive back to Rochester. I convinced him to stick out 1 more drive and to stay if the Bills scored, but then we punted with 9 minutes left in the game. Couldn't justify sticking this one out when my dad was already exhausted from the long day and it felt like we had 1% chance of winning.
It's nothing short of miraculous that our DEF forced two 3 and outs and a fumble after that. We had only forced 1 punt (and no turnovers) on the Ravens first 9 drives.
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43 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:
I'm just curious. After the TD by Cook, it was 27-19. Why go for 2 point conversion there ?
Why not just kick the extra point and have the score be 27-20 ? Down by just 1 TD
Anybody know what McDermott was thinking ?
We only went for 2 after the Baltimore penalty on the PAT.
They're looking at expected points added by the decision to go for PAT or 2.
Kicking PAT: 95% success rate * 1 point = 0.95 expected points
2 pt conversion from the 2 yard line: 40% success rate * 2 points = 0.8 expected points
2 pt conversion from the 1 yard line: 60% success rate * 2 points = 1.2 expected points
You can tinker with the success rates, but that's the basic idea.
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33 minutes ago, boyst said:
I saw this tweet earlier and decided to check out the hot dog prices at the game last night.
The vendor in my section had a regular hot dog for $7, a footlong for $10, and a Buffalo footlong for $12.
I'm guessing most stadiums don't offer a footlong option
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7 minutes ago, dorquemada said:
Plus the whole video analytics to determine if the ball was past the line, but still letting the smooth brain refs place the ball is exactly backwards. Place the ball with computer vision then bring out the chain gang.
It's a matter of time before we're doing all officiating that way, and just let the refs announce the calls
The new tech doesn't tell refs where to spot the ball. All it does is once the ball is spotted it tells them if it's a first down or not
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I think this is a fascinating stat, and I'm trying to think of ideas why this happened.
The best I can come up with:
1) Refs have improved over time and don't favor the home team as much as they used to
2) Home games feature a lot more visiting/neutral fans than they used to
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Ravens 34
Bills 21
The Ravens tend to start out very strong in week 1 under Harbaugh, whereas the Bills are more of a mixed bag under McD.
Lamar and the Ravens will come out with that extra bit of motivation due to their view that Lamar was snubbed for MVP and as revenge for the playoff loss.
I think our new look defense will take a few weeks to round into form.
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Our offense improved when we let Davis walk for nothing. Why would we bring him back, even to the Practice Squad?
He was responsible for half a dozen INTs in 2023 with lazy routes, drops, and miscommunications.
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3 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:
We haven’t had a postseason since 2019 where the whole defense was healthy. In each season ending loss we had a defensive starter out. We need our team intact. We actually have a great defense when they’re all out there.
The 2020 team was remarkably healthy. I don't think we had a single starter out for the Chiefs game, although Beasley was hampered pretty badly.
For OP i'll go under and over.
Milano doesn't really accumulate stats, even when healthy. For his 8 year career he has 10 INTs, 3 forced fumbles, 11 fumble recoveries, and 10.5 sacks.
Milano is on the wrong side of 30 years old and missed 10+ games each of the last 2 seasons due to injuries.
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1 minute ago, corta765 said:
Yep.
I actually should’ve added Rodgers and the Packers here. If you told me after 2010 they’d never be back I wouldn’t have believed it.
Brees and the Saints as well, although they didn't have quite the sustained regular season success as these other teams.
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4 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:
Micah disappears late in games and in the playoffs. Way too much money. Green Bay overpaid
1 sack in 4 playoff games.
2x 1sts and a good starter in Clark is probably around fair value for a trade, but that contract is absurd. Garrett signed for 4 years 160 mil earlier this offseason and I think he's the better player
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23 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
Why do people like you cherry pick your stats ? So you conveniently leave off the 2 time MVP the Bills beat TWICE ? Lmfao
The whole point of this thread is looking at how we've done as a 2 seed vs a 7 seed when under the old playoff format a 2 seed would've gotten a bye.
That was the list of games that wouldn't have occurred under the old format.
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9 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
Mediocre teams don’t generally make the playoffs. Every team the Bills have beaten has double digit wins and more often than not earned their spot in the post-season. Why take that away from them? They play who they are supposed to play.
The 2020 Colts might be the best 7 seed to make the playoffs in this new format. 11-5 with a top 10 offense and defense.
2022 Dolphins were bad. 9-8 with a 3rd string QB and depleted O-line
2023 Steelers were mediocre. 10-7 but no TJ Watt
2024 Broncos were mediocre. 10-7 with a rookie QB
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8 hours ago, eball said:
Great, another thinly veiled thread to trash McDermott.
Such an ignorant take, but unfortunately all too common among the “Super Bowl or failure” crowd. There’s really only one playoff game under McD in which the Bills came out flat (Cinci), and against KC they simply haven’t gotten the same breaks as their opponent.
The team was pretty flat in the first KC loss, outscored 38-6 from the start of the 2nd Q until garbage time.
I have to disagree with the idea that we haven't gotten lucky breaks in these games.
1st KC loss they muffed a punt that we recovered at the 3 yard line and scored a TD on the next play.
Bengals loss had a couple plays where Josh was somewhere between an incomplete forward pass and losing a fumble. Refs called both an incomplete pass after reviews. Think we caught a break with the Chase TD being overturned as well.
3rd KC loss the first play of the game Diggs fumbled, but Kincaid managed to bat the ball out of bounds. After the Damar Hamlin make-a-wish fake punt KC was inches away from scoring a TD, but we forced a fumble inside the 1 yard line that went out the endzone.
4th KC loss the Chiefs dropped multiple easy INTs. Mahomes gifted us with a turnover after he fumbled a good snap. Bills fumbled 4 times and we recovered all 4 of them.
If anything we've been extremely lucky with the fluky bounces in these games.
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16 minutes ago, Billl said:
It’s not an Andy vs McDermott issue, though. The Chiefs score more against the Bills than they do against other teams in the postseason because they have to in order to win. If the Bills scored fewer points, so would the Chiefs. Since Mahomes has been the QB, this is what has happened in his postseason wins:
2019:
Chiefs give up 20 and score 31
Chiefs give up 24 and score 35
Chiefs give up 31 and score 51
2020:
Chiefs give up 17 and score 22
Chiefs give up 24 and score 38
2021:
Chiefs give 21 and score 42
Chiefs give up 36 and score 42
2022:
Chiefs give up 20 and score 23
Chiefs give up 20 and score 27
Chiefs give up 35 and score 38
2023:
Chiefs give up 7 and score 26
Chiefs give up 10 and score 17
Chiefs give up 24 and score 27
2024:
Chiefs give up 14 and score 23
Chiefs give up 29 and score 32
There number of points the Chiefs score in the postseason is incredibly correlated to how many points they need to score. When the Chiefs beat the Ravens 17-10 2 years ago, it wasn’t that the Ravens shut the Chiefs down. The Chiefs started out the game TD, TD, and then went into a shell because Baltimore couldn’t score. They can’t play that way against Josh and the Bills because they can put up so many points. Andy and Mahomes have to hit the throttle in those games. If Allen were to get injured prior to a playoff game against Kansas City this year, the Chiefs aren’t going to gameplan to put up 40 points. They’re going to try to get on top early and win a 24-13 type game while not giving Buffalo a short field due to turnovers.
I'm not really buying the idea that the Chiefs only score exactly as many points as they need to win and then go into a conservative shell. Even if that were true at some point I don't think they'd do that ever again after blowing a 21-3 lead to the Bengals in the AFCCG.
I think they're a streaky offense that tends to run hotter for longer against the Bills than anyone else in the playoffs.
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1 hour ago, Bruffalo said:
He also made the third most total XP and had the 17th best XP kicking percentage. So he had a very average season.
I don't know what the agenda is here or why you'd try to use raw misses without also pointing out the number of makes and attempts.He's been below average the last 2 seasons:
Year FG % Ranking PAT 2020 82.4 18th 96.6 2021 87.5 13th 100 2022 87.1 12th 96 2023 82.8 24th 98 2024 82.8 21st 92.2 For rankings i'm only counting kickers with 10+ starts in that season.
And he's been awful in the postseason with 78.3% FG and 91.7% PAT.
Unfortunately we gave him a pretty large contract (for a kicker) after his 3rd season, only for him to regress badly in years 4 and 5.
I thought he had kicked his way out of the yips with that 61 yarder vs Dolphins last year, but his pre-season performance has me worried.
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7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
Had the Bills been able to score a TD on that last drive against KC (or kick a field goal and win in OT), the Jordan Phillips play to end the drive and force a field goal on KC's last offensive drive would be considered one of the most clutch defensive plays in Bills playoffs history. I love me some Jordan Phillips so give me his 3 good games before he gets hurt!
I think we need to pump the brakes a little bit on that play.
Getting a sack to "hold" the other team to a lead-taking long FG drive with a few minutes left in the game is NOT an all-time play.
An all-time clutch play would've been forcing a turnover for a TD (like Taron Johnson). Or even just a sack to force a punt.
Milano had a more important sack earlier in that game that knocked KC out of FG range and forced a punt
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1 hour ago, MJS said:
So... where's the other $600 million that was spent? Those extensions only add up to $637 million.
He's a punter not a mathematician!
Seriously though whoever made that graphic should be fired
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9 minutes ago, Dr. K said:
I liked the anecdote McDermott told about the coach throwing the chair through the window to motivate the players before the game . . . and then, next week, he had nothing.
That's a crucial difference, I think, between steady leadership and what I'd call "performative" leadership. A lot of people are attracted to the "throw chairs through windows" leaders, but IMHO that is fool's gold. It may work for a game, or even for a season, but it's not a consistent winning strategy, as anybody who has had such a boss can tell you.
McD has had incredible regular season success with this approach, but I wonder if he SHOULD throw a chair through a window for playoff games.
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No idea how Stafford made it into the top tier.
There's a pretty large gap after Allen/Mahomes/Jackson/Burrow. Whatever order you want to put those guys in, they are a clear cut above the rest of the league.
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32 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:
So every other HOF QB got there how? Because McD wasn’t there for them.
Josh’s off season introspection early in his career was more attributable to Daboll and Jordan Palmer. I don’t believe McD had much to do with that at all other than to give it his blessing
It's crazy to me that people on here are giving McD so much credit for Josh progressing.
McD is a head coach that thought Nathan Peterman was an NFL caliber starting QB. Multiple times.
He was comfortable going into the 2018 season with a QB depth chart of:
1) Peterman
2) Allen
And we're acting like McD is some kind of QB whisperer?
I'd go so far to say that Allen's success was despite McD, not because of him.
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I think this is a big game for the TE’s
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Dropson Knox was the only Bill that had a bad game last week.
Couple of awful drops and he embarrassed himself looking for a flag when there was very little contact.