Maine-iac

The single biggest difference is that Nacua isn't playing an X WR role. For the most part he's facing a different set of defenders than an X WR would face and in general he's catching much shorter throws as evidenced by the fact that Coleman averaged 7 more yards than him in ADOT. Nacua isn't the decoy he's the guy benefiting from it. Coleman still averaged more YAC than Nacua. There's plenty of reasons to be encouraged by Coleman but given the position we have him playing and how we use that position he's probably not going to see 120 targets and his catch rate even with a good year will probably be 55 to 60 percent. If he learns a few Gabe Davis routes and Brady finds some use for his YAC ability and mixes him in a little more it's not out of the question he could have 800 or 900 yards and 6 plus TD's next year. Given our running game and Shakir and Kincaid taking over the higher volume stuff that would be decent production from the guy who's probably your 3rd or 4th option.

Actually Mike Gillislee who followed him up had a couple of really good seasons playing behind Shady.

Reminds me we had Kevin Johnson here for a year. Former first round pick. I don't remember him much. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.

Chris Spielman had one good season here.

At 6'1" and 200 pounds all of his measurables, if they are right, are pretty damn good. A sub 4.5 forty, a 1.55 ten yard split, a 39.5 vertical, and a 6.88 3 cone will get you some looks. It's probably the reason he's still kicking around the league. I honestly had no idea who he was but he can run and jump pretty damn well.

Certainly not saying he is wrong. Just that anyone would make a judgement based off 1 season. Smith may well be right but I think even Smith would admit you can't write the whole book based off 1 season. Smith used downfield statistics that painted a bad picture but failed to say that the throws have as much to do with production as the pass catcher. He did mention 10 to 19 yard throw production but said little about it even though Coleman did very well in that category. Overall I think there's nothing "wrong" with Smith's critique but question both the expectations of people and Smith and in Smith's case it's funny to hear him semi call someone out after 1 season given his own rookie season. I don't (and never did) expect Coleman to be a 100 catch or 1,500 yard guy. I don't think that's what he was drafted to do. I don't think that's what our front office or coaching staff was looking for. He will however be criticized because he's not that.

Funny they use a Steve Smith video ........... I'm trying to remember Smith's rookie season ..... LOL.

To Coleman's credit if you look at his under center or play action receiving numbers they really pop. Catching close to 70 percent of his passes. He also has great numbers on 1st and 2nd down. Averaging 27 yards per reception on 1st downs and almost 16 on second. Shotgun and 3rd down are not his thing. My 2 second analysis would be if the defense thinks we might run the ball he is far more effective than known passing downs. They need to work in more of the higher percentage stuff (slants and screens) which he can do, to go along with the big boy, jump ball stuff they force to him. I also think a lot of the end zone jump balls they throw to him are pretty badly thrown and there's a lot of room for improvement in getting him the ball. Is he going to break out and be some kind of star even in perfect conditions? I'm not going to try and sell that but everyone seems to love Pickens and he had 900 yards and 3 TD's last year. I think Coleman can do something in that realm. Could we use a speed guy to change things up. Absolutely I'd agree with that but who are you signing, who are you sitting, and which plays would they be on the field? I'm guessing the "speed" guy wouldn't be on the field that often.

I can't argue with that. Honestly when Mooney was available a season ago he was one of the guys I would have loved to see us sign. With the focus on running the ball and the amount of shell coverage we face I suspect the team just doesn't focus on trying to run guys past the defense because it's probably rarely going to happen.

I'm just curious what people are expecting out of an X WR in this offense? Everyone expecting/wanting a 150 target, 30 million dollar a year, super star #1 WR I just don't think it's happening. Seems like the team wants big guys who can block on a cost controlled contract. In a perfect world they'd turn into AJ Brown but they'd probably settle for Mack Hollins. I know that hurts all the stat loving fantasy football guys but I'm guessing we'll still end up top ten in scoring.

If you take the top ten WR's in targeted air yards for 2023 (Davis was 4th) and look at completion percentage Davis was 5th out of those top ten. He was actually ahead of DK Metcalf for catch percentage at 55.56 and just behind Mike Evans who was at 58.09. Most WR's averaging 14 plus yards for ADOT have a catch percentage from the mid 50s to low 60s. His drop percentage for 2023 was actually the lowest of his career for us and he had zero drops for the Jags last year but also his lowest ADOT as well.

Davis was hurt and Sherfield ended up starting in our playoff game vs KC

He does run hot and cold but given how close the last two Chiefs playoff encounters have been I have to wonder if someone as seemingly inconsequential as Davis might have made a difference if he was on the field. He's a deep threat WR. A guy you throw to when they are trying to stop the run or short passing game. We were trying to throw him the ball 90 times a year when we had no run or short passing game to speak of. I'd rather have him as a back up than Sherfield or some of the other dubs we've had.

Gabe gets a bad rap because everyone wanted him to be AJ Brown when in reality he's Mack Hollins if you threw at him 90 times a season and no one throws at Hollins 90 times a season so Hollins still looks like a hero.

Shakir is our starter in the slot. Shakir goes in motion and ends up outside sometimes. In this offense he's not going to replace a 6'2" 220lb X WR outside but he could take snaps out there. He's roughly the same size as Diggs was but almost all his snaps are slot for us. Moore will most likely do Shakir things and it's good to have him we need that.

Moore is not an X WR my guess is he's going to play slot.

It is true (not sure of the percentage) that Allen would force a lot of throws to Gabe and according to PFR he had about 6 picks a year throwing to Davis. The difference now would be that we are more focused on taking the profit most plays and moving the chains. Allen didn't have that option for several years after Beasley left. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviGa01.htm#all_adv_receiving_and_rushing

They drafted Bech and Thornton and already have Meyers on the roster. Not saying they wouldn't take a swing on Davis but considering they have Bowers at TE they have pass catchers on the roster now. I personally think Davis would be better suited here now then when the offense was so WR centric. Our outside pass catchers really are there to block and win outside when teams come out of shell coverage. Given that injuries happen I could see him being the next guy up after Palmer and Coleman. Shakir, Kincaid, and the RB's would get the bulk of the targets and Davis (if he's out there) would get the posts, sails, and deep shots.

Dunning Kruger effect ........ I'm not an NFL GM but I must be smarter than one. Just ask me I'll tell you.

Which is why we then send Cook or Johnson down the sideline for a big pass because teams are trying to clog up the middle and it was very successful. We got roughly 70 catches, 700 yards, and 6 or 7 TD's receiving from our backs. If we could get Keon to even a Gabe Davis level with his route running it will punish teams who try to switch to single high or cover zero along with our myriad of RB pass catching options. The thing we don't have a counter for is Shakir getting hurt. I'd like to see a Shakir understudy that looks like he could effectively sub in and play slot.

Love it.

But are they "speedsters"?

So we put up points more points last year without Diggs than we did in every year he was here except for one? We also had more 20 yard passing plays than every year but one and more 40 yard passing plays than every year but one. We had less turnovers in more games and less sacks in more games. What is it that we can't do without better WR's?

The results were devastating. Record number of points. Less sacks, less turnovers, more TD's on offense. Clearly we've learned nothing from it.

Tied for 6th in 20 yard passes and 5th in 40 yard passes. Guess not every pass was a 4 yard out to Kincaid.