pennstate10
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Posts posted by pennstate10
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Given our cap situation, I don’t see signing any new top tier FA.
If the money is right, my initial priorities would be
1. DQ Jones
2. AJ Epenesa
3. Taylor Rapp or Gilman at S
Thats it. I’d pick up 1-2 WR in rinds 1-3, and then another WR in the second round of FA post draft and June 1
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9 hours ago, julian said:
Yeah… what a complete donkey show at OBD, people need to be fired. WHY ????? WHY ????? , it should be us, not them. This sucks
OK, let’s think this through.
Bradshaw, Brady, Mahomes, and Montana.
These are the best QBs of the superbowl era.
Anyone disagree?
Whats the common theme in their draft positions?
Nothing !! Not a f,,,ing thing!
Drafting QBs is a crapshoot. For every example like this, there is an example of trading three 1s and a 2 for Robert Griffin. Or Sam Darnold.
KC gambled and won. Good for them. Put it to rest.
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2 hours ago, beebe said:
The Chiefs played a lot more man coverage vs the 49ers after Brock Purdy was tearing apart their zone through 1.5 quarters.
The Chiefs-Bills playoff game, Buffalo's halves weren't terribly different. Buffalo had only four drives in each half. So it was a very low possession game. KC's defense got off the field once more in the 2nd half than first half and made the Bills work a little harder on offense, especially on the final drive. Chris Jones usually is at his absolute best when it matters most.
If Buffalo didn't extend the drive on the first possession after facing 3rd-and-17, the halves would have been closer on a per-play basis, not on the actual scoreboard.
Buffalo 1st half:
14 plays, 60 yards
11 plays, 75 yards
5 plays, 15 yards
12 plays, 75 yards
Buffalo 2nd half:
15 plays, 75 yards
3 plays, 5 yards
3 plays, -2 yards
16 plays, 54 yards
I’d never looked at that drive chart
5 drives of 54-75 yds and no turnovers. Should be good for 3 TD and 2 FG.
But Bills had no short field easy scoring drives.
Bills have been missing the aggressive D that gives you short fields in playoff games.
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11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
There is a long distance between not treating boundary WR like it's the clear #1 need and "ignoring" it.
I know that some people look at the draft.........decide what the order they think the players will fall and which needs will be filled.........and THEN figure out how they want to address free agency based on that.
That's not the order the system works in though.
The reality is that the Bills could pass on signing one of the WR's that are available in FA...........and then get to the draft and 6 WR's go before their pick and the next boundary WR on their board has a late second round grade. That's kinda' like what happened last year. Kincaid was the pivot and he's nice but what they pivoted from is still what they need.
I'd rather have a high ceiling veteran free agent in place and then have a top WR option end up at pick #28 than to risk not getting one at all because I wanted to try to patch holes on defense first.
A quality WR2 is going to get a $12-15 million per year contract. You could push some of that into the future, but then 2025-26 become worse cap years.
I don’t think Bills have cap space to sign a quality WR2, and other minor FA pickups or resigning (DL, S).
Bills could sign a lesser quality FA WR, which is what I think they do.
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2 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
I think:
- Cam Lewis is back to complete for the FS job
- Poona Ford is back on a slight pay bump from last season, will actually be on the active roster, starter if Jones does not return
- Daquan Jones is back if he will take a deal that reflects a player in his early 30’s coming off a season mostly lost to injury.
- Ty Dodson tests the market, ultimately returns on a 1 year deal
- TM44 returns on a 1 year deal
- Dane Jackson returns
- Shaq Lawson returns in August
- AJE leaves to start elsewhere
- Floyd leaves to get paid elsewhere
- Hyde ‘retires’
TM doesn’t play on defense and his ST play doesn’t even warrant the vet minimum.
It drives me nuts that we have older, “elite” ST players but don’t have close to elite ST play. Have younger players play ST.
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4 hours ago, BBFL said:
He was at the OLB position at Maryland so there’s that history he has. Anyone can shine or disappear in the NFL. But I take their word for it as since I’ve worked with those guys they’ve been spot on about everyone who was overhyped and wouldn’t pan out:Hackenberg, Gross Matos, Austin Johnson, Odafeh Oweh(sp?), the DT the Falcons recently drafted just to name a few.
I know you can’t take a fans perspective as the be all end all but 2 of them played football collegiately at Penn State… One still close friends with Leonard Humphries if you remember that name… He’s told me that Lenny says he is still bummed out that he never got to play for the dynasty Bills 😂
I don’t think either Chop Robinson or Adissa Issac are first round talents. Both round 2-3 guys.
Abdul Carter is moving to DE this coming year. HE is a first round edge player.
Re: WR. If Franklin is there at 28, he’s a steal. Someone mentioned a similar skill set to Desean Jackson. I think this is mostly correct. Both smooth gliders. But Franklin doesn’t have Jackson short area quickness.
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6 hours ago, Buddy Hix said:
Groot is a good run defender and below average pass rusher…solid overall but not a guy I would want extended.
Just sucks that Beane hasn’t hit on a 1st rounder since Josh.
Dalton K . has entered the chat
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4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
My source told me there have been no substantive contract discussions with DQ since his injury. The team is going to let the DT market play out, as they should. Perhaps Beane has finally learned, out of necessity, that you can't waste money on loyalty to players. He's wasted money on pay cuts to players like Butler, Hines, and Settle, instead of just letting them go and realizing the most possible savings. It's time for him to get ruthless and let players discover on their own that they don't have a market. For a similar reason I want them to cut Tre, not offer him a pay cut. It's a ruthless move but the right one for the future.
Your source may well be correct, but most of Bill reporters and NFL observers state that Jones should be a top priority for Bills to resign.
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23 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I would like to have Daquan Jones back but I think he probably signs with the Chicago Bears right away in free agency.
I was told by a reliable source that he packed up his entire household in Buffalo after the season and moved everything to Nashville............he could have waited on that if he thought he might have to stay in Buffalo.
If your source is correct, I’d guess that Jones has a nice house in Nashville, where he played for 8 years. Not impossible to imagine that he agreed with family to live in Bflo during the season and then go back to a home in Nashville. I’ve never lived in Nashville but I’d guess that winters there are more pleasant than Bflo.-
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15 hours ago, DJB said:
So, I'm going to double down, and say that not only is this graph useless, the entire premise of "clutch" QB is not really useful.
Lets consider football vs baseball. Football is a team game. Baseball is a series of 1 on 1 (pitcher vs batter) competitions.
So, yes, baseball may have "clutch" players. But, as a team game, football has clutch TEAMS, not QBs.
The current KC Chiefs and the 2000-2020 Pats were clutch TEAMS. The Bills, sad to say, are not currently a clutch TEAM. They may be in the future, but they are not now.
To consider how silly it is to talk about a clutch QB, lets think about SB XXV. If Norwood hits a field goal (which, basically, was the same as flipping a coin), then Kelly is suddenly a "clutch" QB who guided his team to a last minute SB victory. But Kelly has nothing whatsoever to do with Norwoods kick. Hes watching on the sidelines, just like the rest of us.
Or as discussed above, if McD defense performs better in 13 sec in 2021, then Josh is suddenly a better, more clutch QB. Really? Or if Diggs catches a long ball in 2023, Josh is suddenly a better QB. It makes far more sense to talk about clutch TEAMS, not players.
The facts are that Allen is an excellent QB, who typically gives his team a chance to win. So is Mahomes. Yet this graph suggests that Josh is unicorn good, while Mahomes is well below average. One of the 3 very worst QBs in the league, per this graph.
Does no one else have a problem with this? The chart is simply garbage, but because good old Kurt has GraphPad prism to make fancy charts, this is all of a sudden the gospel truth.
SMH
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
It's calculated by taking the win probability of a particular down wrt historical averages (similar to EPA) vs the difference positive or negative of the play's result. It's not predictive nor is it meant to be as there are better metrics for that.
Why would you use any measurement if it doesn’t help you analyze a decision? Thats pretty clearly what op was saying. Using this great measurement, he concludes that Josh Allen is the greatest thing since sliced bread. While Mahomes is garbage.
I’m a huge Allen fan, and think Mahomes is a whiner. But facts are facts, and this measurement is useless.
28 minutes ago, Chaos said:The general rule is that fans on this forum consider anything they don't understand "useless". Which from the sole perspective of those that don't understand things is perfectly true.
It drives me nuts that some folks think they’ve discovered a new science named “analytics “. Which is simply probability and statistics rebranded.
and most of the analytics I see fail to validate their tools. The first post in this thread is a good example.
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37 minutes ago, beebe said:
For this season, it is fact-based to say that Mahomes wasn't overly clutch, from a purely results-based standpoint. The Chiefs had a chance to score late vs the Lions, Eagles, Packers and Bills and came up short in all. Four losses. His only successful "clutch" performance came in the Super Bowl.
The context behind the misses is:
vs Lions - Mahomes threw a perfect pass to Toney which would have set up the game-winning field goal, but Toney dropped it.
vs Eagles - Mahomes threw what would have been a likely game-winning TD pass to MVS, but he dropped it at the goal line.
vs Packers - Mahomes threw what could have been a game-tying TD (2 pter needed) but refs missed blatant PI on pass to MVS at the goal line.
vs Bills - Mahomes threw what could have been a game-winning TD pass to Kelce (who then lateraled to Toney), but Toney was ruled Offside.
My point still stands.
Any time someone comes up with a new metric, ie “Win probability added per dropback”, you should ask yourself, how is this calculated? And more importantly, has this been shown to be predictive on an independent data set?
Until I see evidence that this measurement is truly predictive, I’ll consider it useless.
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3 hours ago, DJB said:
Lies damn lies and statistics.
Any “clutch” metric that places Mahomes in the bottom 20%tile is severely flawed.
This should be obvious.
Just because someone makes a chart and puts it on Twitter doesn’t mean it’s useful.
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14 hours ago, BuffaloButt said:
Bills vs Eagles 2.0 game.
In college they always let the other team start with the ball. It's the smart way to play it, always!!
49ers definitely made the wrong call.
Bills Eagles not. So clear.
Rules in regular season are different, and Bills had the win in hand if Davis turned the right way.
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3 hours ago, blacklabel said:
My favorite play of his. It was an absolute laser beam that nearly went through Jake's hands. I mean, the ball carries the guys hands from one side of his body to the other. All the mustard on that one. Right behind that one is the moon ball he launched against Jacksonville his rookie year. Speaking of moon balls, I'm still upset Stef dropped that monster against KC. Josh launched it from his own 12, it reached Stef at the Chiefs 25. Ridonkulous.
I wonder if the length of that throw affected Diggs timing and eye hand coordination.
im sure Diggs has lot of practice timing and catching 40-50 yd throws.
But how much experience does anyone have at catching 65 yd throws?
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7 hours ago, Roundybout said:
You want him to self-flagellate or something?Wait a second here. This is a family friendly board. None of your porn antics here.
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39 minutes ago, Blank Stare said:
Hate this. Butler is a good coach.
Ahh, not so sure Butler is a good coach.
He was DB coach at PSU, hired partly on the recommendation of Bill OBriens strength coach.
Then promoted to DC because OB was too lazy to do a search.
Failed miserably as a DC and would throw players under the bus.
Then went to Texans with OB but fired as his unit performed poorly.
Then hired by his high school buddy McDermott.
Seems to me the guys floats by on his buddies coattails.
And before someone chimes in that he did a great job coaching up Tre, Hyde, and Poyer—they were all on team for at least one season before Butler started.
The only DB to develop under Butler was Taron Johnson.
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6 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Josh made the right read and throw.
- Oh jeez, not this ish again…
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5 hours ago, Einstein said:
Ask Josh Allen that same question and no version of “I don’t know” or money stuff comes out of his mouth.
Zero. Zip. Nada
It would simply be “Absolutely and I can’t wait”, or some version of that.
And no it wasn’t a standard, nothing, Belichick type answer. Do you know what Belichick said just 3 days before he was fired? He said he plans to be the coach the next year. Because THAT is the type of answer you’re supposed to give.
To be clear, there is absolutely zero chance that Josh is traded or released this offseason.
Zero. Zip. Nada.
is it possible that Diggs gets released or traded? Maybe. Or at least that’s what the internet says.
So these aren’t equal situations.
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3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:
Easily a horrible trade and possibly the worst in Buffalo’s history.
Ahh, I’m not sure that touches the Lamonica trade.
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8 hours ago, Warcodered said:
Why does Brady look 2-4 inches taller than Josh in this clip?
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4 hours ago, Pete said:
any casual football fan that watches most teams can easily see the Bills WRs drop more passes than any other team.
Other teams catch everything against us, making unbelievable catches. We drop easy TDs.
Other kickers hit 50+ yarders in the rain when the game is on the line. Bass gets the yips on extra points.
Buffalo is so good that they make mistake after mistake, and still win. If they ever tightened up, and mastered basics, the Bills would be a Dynasty with Josh
Actually Chiefs receivers dropped quite a few throughout the season.
The reversed that trend in the divisional game and had zero drops against the Bills.
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I like your top 10, but I’m pretty sure Penix ends up pushing one of those guys out. There’s always at least one QB who surprises and gets picked top 10.
I like the Bills picks, provided Bullick runs a 4.5 or better. I’m not sure he’s got adequate straight line speed.
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14 hours ago, Drew21PA said:
DQ for sure - him Milano and TB43 shores that middle up for YEARS to come with Big Ed there as well
Agree that Jones is the most important guy on this list.
But I think he has 2 good years left at most.
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Bills’ player grades for 2023 from the Athletic and PFF.
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Just to give some perspective on these "grades".
Which I put in quotes because there is a fair degree of subjectivity here. Its not like a multiple choice test where there are clear right and wrong answers. I think we all need to take these grades with a huge grain of salt.
The Athletic grades are entirely from Joe Buscaglia, a very good writer for The Athletic.
The PFF grades, as I understand things, are based upon numerous different evaluators, with some evaluators being better than others.
I'm not saying one set is better than the other. But from my observations, I think that Buscaglia's grades match what I see better than do PFF.
Dodson being an example. Per PFF, he was markedly better than Bernard, and one of the best LB in the entire NFL. Per Buscaglia, Bernard was clearly the better player.