pennstate10
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Posts posted by pennstate10
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Oh, it's true. I've posted a breakdown of QB drafted through the first 5 rounds using hard numeric criteria. Search if you like. Mid - Jan "QB Draft Results" or something like that.
Someone else did it by "TLAR" (that looks about right) and achieved similar results.
I didn't break out the top 2 picks in that one, just the top 5, so I'll do that here:
1998-2016 top 5 rounds
Criteria: Completion %; YPA; TD/INT (chosen because they correlate to winning). Same criteria used all 5 rounds
Pick #1,2: 19 QB. Yes: 11/19, 58%. Maybe: 3/18, 16%. Yes + Maybe = 75%
Yes: Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Luck, Griffin (inj), Bradford(inj), Stafford,Alex Smith,Palmer, P. Manning (11)
Maybe (No by criteria, but most people would say Y): Newton, Eli Manning, McNabb (3)
No: Russell, Carr, Vick, Couch, Leaf (5)
Pick 1-5 50%
Pick 6-32 19%
2nd round: 20%
3rd round: 15%
4th round: 10%
5th round: no one really (AJ McCarron and Craig Nall, neither played more than 7 games)
You can debate names - maybe you score Newton and E. Manning "yes" and RGIII and Bradford "no" - doesn't change the conclusion.
Ahhh, if we're talking about FRANCHISE QB in the first 2 picks, I think your definition may be a bit lenient. A Franchise QB should win championships.
How many of your"YES" have taken their team to a conference champ game? Not even won the game, just played in it.
Maybe 1? P. Manning?
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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
The top 2 picks of the draft are where the odds of getting a franchise QB are highest.
This statement may or may not be true. I'd have to see the numbers to really assess it.
But I know this is true.
Since the year 2000, 1 (one) SuperBowl has been won by a QB who was a top 2 pick (Peyton Manning, Colts, 2007).
In that same time, three SuperBowls have been won by a top 5 pick QB.
Since 2000, 21 QBs have been selected in the top 5. Only one of them (Eli Manning, 2004) has won a Super Bowl.
These are simply facts. Look at them however you'd like.
Not sure that we need a top 5 pick.
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5 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:
Refuted by people who think Brady and Wilson and Brees were top prospects going into the draft. All wrong.
as you are.
Btw you BEEBE May work with Reich in Indy? Relationshiiiiips.
tell ou what champ. Beside not to debate me. We don’t know each other but something about you should know...
i dont start a battle unless it’s already won on my end.
thats a free one sport.
In the 2nd round. Doesn’t qualify.
Gotcha.
2nd round draft picks dont count.
Not that I think Kiper is a great talent evaluator, but he has cultivated very good sources over the past 30 years.
Brees was the 2nd rated QB On Kipers big board in 2001.
Carry on...
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8 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:
2 out of your 3 were not considered Top Prospects going into the draft.
do you see what I’m saying?
Okay going to try one more time.
i am excluding QBs who are “the man” for their team now because they were not considered generally to be TOP PROSPECTS going into the draft.
how do I put this...don’t look at what happened. Look at what was.
the only way to get Cam Newton was to be the worst team in the league the prior season or trade with Carolina. Only way.
newton was the Top Prospect. You couldn’t wait for him to slide or anything else.
if you tell me you don’t want to trade up for a QB this season. The only way you are getting the TOP RATED College QBs in 2019 is being bad or trading
being bad or trading.
the bills will not be 9-7 in 2018 and simply have the top QB Prospect fall to them.
Actually, Brees and Rodgers were both considered top QB prospects. Brees was the 2nd QB chosen.
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3 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:
I feel this gets lost in the debate over Drafting QBs.
i only see it two ways into getting the top QB Talent (I should preface...agreed upon QB talent seeing as Manuel was the first QB taken, but no one believed in that class and we even traded down.)
You either have to...
1.) Suffer by being an awful team the season before.
or
2.) Suffer by sacrificing current players and draft capital to trade up in the draft.
So, this is a classic example of a false dichotomy. Stating there are only two possible choices. In reality, there is door #3. Select an outstanding QB in the late first round or later.
You say this never happens?
Consider the 3 best QBs in the game today. Brady, Brees, Rodgers. 6th rnd 2nd rnd, and 24th overall.
Does it take a bit of luck to hit on these guys? Sure. But its far from the impossibility that the OP posed.
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Ruh Roh
I was a huge McDermott fan until this.
He fires Byrd, who coached the most successful group for the Bills team, and hires his high school pal.
Butler was not a good coach at PSU.
PSU defense regressed when he was DC. Ironically, he was also high school buds with OB, who hired him first as DB coach, then as DC.
Butler was constantly blaming PSU players for poor defensive efforts rather than taking responsibility. I hope he's improved, but dont think he has.
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Unfortunately, your initial premise is 100% wrong.
Kelly was drafted 14th, after the Bills finished 4-5. Pretty close to an 8-8 record.
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So, no doubt the pats are really good.
But I have never, in any sport, seen a team benefit more from officiating than the pats.
The fumble recovery by Mack should have been a TD.
He started running after recovering and was blown dead. But the wasn't touched by pats after recovery.
Should have been been a TD.
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2 hours ago, cba fan said:
No Vikings win will not be compared much to Music City Miracle,(even though they are calling it Minnesota Miracle) as it does not have any controversy.
Technically the Viking game did not end on that TD pass.....they had to run one more play. The PAT.
Just like an untimed down after penalty or whatever to end a game that results in the winning FG or TD. That should not be considered the last play of the game if a PAT is involved. It still could be winning play but not last play.
EX: the Pats Bills "just give it to em" game. They had an untimed down with no time on clock after PI in end zone and Bledsoe threw a TD to Coates for the game winner, however, they had to run the PAT and did so for 2 pts. That was the final play.
It is interesting you bring up Music City Miracle. How would it have gone down today??? hmmmm
Riveron using the "perponderance of evidence policy" like he did in regular season 2017-18 should have overturned that today.
Unless he returned to "100% conclusive policy" in playoffs like he did this year in playoffs, then it would have stood.
coin flip
If by "game" you mean a contest between two teams....
Yes, the game ended on the TD pass.
The PAT was a silly formality. By rule, there was no way possible that the Saints coudl have won on the PAT kick. Therefore, the contest was over after the Vikings scored onthe TD pass.
6 minutes ago, KD in CA said:That one was worse since the refs ignored the OPI.
Cowboys were the Pats* of that era.
That wasnt offensive PI Both players stopped and were going for the ball.
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On 1/7/2018 at 5:12 PM, Fadingpain said:
My lasting memory of Tyrod will be him dropped back in the pocket, looking downfield, the pass protection clock ticking...and just nothing happening.
Tyrod has real trouble "seeing" a picture downfield that triggers his brain to tell him it's time to throw the ball.
He just can't do it regularly enough.
Youre referring to what is known as a "OODA Loop". A friend of mine who was once a fighter pilot explained this to me. Stands for "Observe, Orient, Decide, Act".
Here is a decent explanation:
https://www.tacticalresponse.com/blogs/library/18649427-boyd-s-o-o-d-a-loop-and-how-we-use-it
TT seems like a good guy. And I love the way he can drift out of the pocket, and effortlessly gain 12 yds at times. But I dont think he's a quick thinker. Thats not saying he's unintelligent, but rather not quick at processing and acting on information. According to my friend, during training, guys OODA loops coudl improve. But they all had an inherent ceiling. I think TT has hit his, so I'm looking for a change.
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Ahh..., the young'uns here.
This is the greatest 5 INT game ever.
Bills intercept a HOF QB 5 times, including three (3) pick 6's. Jets QB threw EIGHT (8) TD passes in that game.
Problem was 3 of those TDs were for the Bills.
Only game the Bills won that year....
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/196809290buf.htm
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2 minutes ago, sullim4 said:
But he voluntarily pulled the ball back - so fwd progress shouldn't apply, right? That only applies to breaking the plane of the end zone.
BS call.
If he ran across the first down marker, and the retreated, and then was tackled, no one would say he gained a first down.
He voluntarily pulled the ball back, then was tackled same thing. BS call.
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1 hour ago, ColdFront_USAF said:
There's an article somewhere out there that explains it in good detail. Basically there's so much scar tissue in that arm that operating again would be nearly impossible, making another arm injury career ending for him. Something to do with resistant viruses causing severe infection.
I still say if if he ever uses it as a weapon again like that it gets taken away, and whatever happens to his arm after that is on him for abusing the bionic arm. But that won't happen, because he is both a Patriot and a superstar player. NFL needs players like that because the game is a lot more exciting with guys like him playing.
This is where I disagree. He's proven beyond a doubt that he uses that arm brace as a weapon. He's lost the argument that he needs the brace for protection. Its getting like pro wrestling. Are our guys permitted to carry clubs onto the field with them? How about all the Bills players come out with protective arm braces and use them to throw forearm shivers. A lot easier when you've got metal, isnt it?
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Can the Bills request NFL to not allow body armor?
Serious question.
I understand the need for padding and player protection.
But Gronkowski clearly used his forearm "protection" as a weapon against 27.
And knocked him out of the game.
If I'm the Bills, I tell NFL I dont want Gronkowski bringing a club onto the field to use agaisnt my guys.
And I make it very public. At worst you get into his head.
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9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:
He only has a couple what they label as DROPS
He has 10 drops.
Highest in the NFL.
More than a couple.
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23 minutes ago, Yeezus said:
Mcdermott has shown he doesn't make very smart in game decisions
nothing new here.
I think this is a pretty silly comment.
1). I doubt McD chooses the special team hands team. That responsibility falls to the special team coach..
2). I really doubt this is an "in game" decision by anyone. This is a professional team. They practice these plays, and they know who will be playing. I'm pretty sure McD isn't prowling the sidelines saying "you, you, and you, get out there for the onsides kick"
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2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:
Aiken said he was trying to break press coverage. Watch the video.
Hmmmm...like I used to say to my kids "God knows when you're lying"
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Reading a bit more of this thread, I can see where it s heading.
The NFL will give Bills a severe "talking to" before the Pats game. Saying that if anyone sneezes on Gronkowski, they're getting a flag and full year suspension.
If I'm the Bills, I ask why this guy is allowed to carry a weapon (arm club) onto the field. It is CLEARLY used as a weapon.
Bills should tell the NFL that Gronkowski has lost the privilege of wearing an arm brace. His arm CLEARLY isnt that fragile--he just showed that.
I'm completely serious here. Bills should enter that request, and make it public, so NFL is forced to answer the request.
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After seeing that clip, NFL should prohibit Gronkowski from wearing that arm brace.
He used it as a weapon.
If he breaks his arm again, thats his problem.
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2 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:
He wanted an intentional grounding called he didn't get it
It was clearly intentional grounding.
1) Brady was in tackle box
2) Ball didnt go past the LOS.
3) No pat were within 10 feet of the ball. Romo said there were receivers in the area, but he was wrong.
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Goodell should suspend Gronkowski for 2 games more than White misses due to concussion.
Pretty straightforward.
Maybe that will wake people up.
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5 hours ago, T-Bomb said:
Is he the only coach who is "allowed" to do this without losing his players or creating shouts of racism from twitter?
What would happen if McDermott didn't allow team celebrations? Would he be considered a racist coach?
Just want to make sure I have this straight.
A white guy and a black guy are celebrating a TD, and thats racist?
Hmmm.....Aristotelian logic at its finest....
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After 8 pages, I'm astounded that people dont understand the concept of arm strength.
Arm strength IS ball velocity. Period.
I'm 60 yrs old. My name aint Rico, but I can throw a football 50 yds. Its a rainbow. A classic 50-50 ball. That ISNT arm strength.
Arm strength is throwing a ball 20-25 yd on a rope. It gets there before the DB can react. Thats arm strength.
Favre, Brady, Stafford have arm strength. Watch their games, watch the 20 yd outs.
Next point is accuracy. Watch Drew Brees. He is the most accurate passer I've ever seen. Look at the youtube.
The last issue is recognition, and knowing when to throw.
An acquaintance of mine was a D1 college coach. He pointed out to me that a good QB had to have a good OODA loop.
Explanation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop
Ive watched TT the last 3 years. He didnt have a quick OODA loop when he started, and it hasnt improved.
Time to check the next guy.
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It's a Good Year For QB's Because There Are a Lot, Not Because They Are Great
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Based on the above list, the 2014 QB class was rated higher than this years.
With Peterman and macaron both above Rudolph.
Point being.
Dont believe the hype. This is not a one in a lifetime QB class. Its an average, maybe slightly above average class. Don't mortgage the future to draft the 3rd, 4th or 5th best QB in this class.