Billsflyer12
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Posts posted by Billsflyer12
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8 hours ago, T master said:
So is this to be taken as you are one that wants the Bills to move on from McD's success & just start over with a entire new coaching staff ?
The reason why i ask is because remember what happened when the Pegs brought in Rex a fairly successful coach and he changed the number 1 - 4/3 D to a 3/4 and destroyed the team chemistry .
I may be wrong but i would rather have a continually successful team & the stability than the change because if you are in the hunt you always have a shot .
But if you’re on the outside looking in theres never going to be a chance .
For starters the only perspective that matters on this is the Pegulas, and they have clearly made their feelings on this topic clear. They want “sustained success” and as a business family that brings consistent profits. For small market Buffalo this is probably a huge deal for team stability, viability and likely played huge roll in getting the new stadium.
You have a fair perspective and one many if not most currently have about McD. I’ve asked before on here if fans would rather have 5 years of playoffs and 1 SB win or 10 straight years of playoffs and no SB win. Sounds like you along with many other great Bills fans would rather have stability and constant long term winning, even if that means no SB win.
For me and some other fans it’s really about winning a SB, even if the winning may be on a shorter cycle. For fans like us the pain of 4 straight Super Bowl losses is 1000% worse than the drought. So with our perspective the scrutiny of the GM, Coach and QB will feel more intense and urgent.
McD is a very good coach, and is likely and very good man. This is not personal. Nevertheless, I would never bet any sum of money on McD to even make a SB appearance let alone winning one. There is a lot of historical data, performance stats and current trends saying for that to be the case. I and others have posted all this information before, I won’t do it again. Does this mean he can’t? No, of course he certainly can. Yet, he would literally be the 1st or be one of extremely few in NFL history to win a SB based on many of these stats and trends.
To answer your question specifically, I wish we had a different coach and I would have likely fired him after 13 seconds. I don’t want to waste Josh Allens prime knowing almost all the data says he won’t be the coach to actually win the Super Bowl with the Bills. But, I acknowledge to my ultimate frustration that what I feels means absolutely nothing. So me and my family will be there every Sunday this fall watching and still hoping that McD proves me and the data wrong.
Sorry for long post, wishing you and everyone on the board good health and a great life.
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4 hours ago, T master said:
I guess you would have to lump all of those coaches that have won a Super Bowl & average out how many years it took each of them to get to the big game and win it . That being said i'm not positive that that thinking would be correct way to figure it out .
But with that being said i hope McD is here until he doesn't want to be here because then there would be a stability like the Steelers have had for years to come & the Bills would be contenders every year .
Some say he needs to be gotten rid of right now that to me is foolish to go back to what the Bills were doing before he came here & turned the ship around . One thing they seem to forget is that in the grand scheme of things he's still a very young HC & seems to learn from his mistakes so i'm hoping it won't take long for the learning process to bring the Bills a Lombardy !!
GO BILLS !!!
It’s been posted before in a number of threads, John Madden in 1974 is the only head coach to make his 1st Super Bowl appearance after his 7th year. John did it in his 8th season. Tom Landry made his 1st Championship game appearance in his 7th year. So other then the 2 all head coaches have made their 1st Super Bowl appearance in less time then McD has coached the Bills.
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18 minutes ago, boater said:
Post of the week.
So tired of the fans who want to fire Beane and McDermott if they fail to deliver the Lombardi. Have they no memory of the drought?
I do have a memory, one of losing 4 straight Super Bowls which pain exceeds by a lot the drought.
When you tell people you are a Bills fan now, losing 4 straight Super Bowls is ALWAYS mentioned by them, never the drought. My pain, the stain on our team and city doesn’t end till they win a Super Bowl. Being just a playoff team every year and flaming does nothing for many and the Bills historically.
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27 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:
You make pronouncements that you pass off as facts. They are not. The data can be interpreted in different ways. I began my post with the preamble of "statistical gymnastics" because there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Stats are just numbers. You can use them to tell nearly any story you want.
But here's the statistical story I believe: stability pays off. Over the past 50 years, the average Steeler coach lasted for about 17 years. Their three coaches won 6 Lombardi's.In the same period, our average HC lasted about 2.8 years. Our endless parade of coaches have never won a Lombardi. Being decisive - often considered a good trait in many situations - and quickly pulling plugs is not a smart strategy to take with HCs. Patience and perseverance pay off.
The average team has a 3% of winning the Super Bowl. Good GMs and HCs can increase their probability to maybe 10%. It took Beane and McD two, or three years to reach that level. They've been at that level for maybe 3, maybe 4, years now. From a mathematical perspective, it's not time to panic. You don't fire the coach that brought you from 0-1% to 10% just because he hasn't hit on his 1-in-10 shot yet.
There is no one path to the Super Bowl. Of those Steeler coaches, Cowher won in his 14th season. Tomlin won in his 2nd. They both contributed in their own way to Pittsburgh's enviable haul of six trophies.
Chuck Koll won his 1st Super Bowl in his 6th season. Cowher made his 1st Super Bowl in his 4th season. Tomlin won his 1st in his 2nd season.
Point being all the Super Bowl winning Steeler coaches had at least a Super Bowl appearance by their 6th season.
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42 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
As long as it took Brady to show up. And Reid took as long as Mahomes to show up. There’s a correlation in there somewhere. Just can’t put my finger on it. 🤔
And somehow McDermott cant even make an SB appearance with one of those level QBs.
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On 6/27/2023 at 1:45 PM, reddogblitz said:
Took Tom Landry 11 years.
Tom Landry made his 1st NFL Championship Game appearance(pre Super Bowl) in Season 7.
John Madden is only coach to ever make his 1st Super Bowl appearance beyond season 7. He did it in Season 8.
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Trying to get home from Denver with my son for a camp day. Not being a STH and with ticking issues should I even bother?
Miss the days where we just took shuttle bus and walked in almost everyday.
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35 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
Agree, but I see it more as a business decision.
In the 1st new stadium behind-the-scenes video they just posted, they said "the best thing the Buffalo Bills can do to enhance economic vitality in our community is win football games."
As fans, we don't want to hear it, but that does NOT mean winning a Super Bowl. It simply means being a winning team, a playoff team, a consistent contender, just a damn likeable team.
Terry knows that the McBeane team is a winning team and he will draw that out for as long as possible to ensure economic vitality.
This ^^^^^
We as fans, at least most just want a Super Bowl, especially ones that lived and agonized through 4 straight Super Bowl loses. We want that embarrassment gone for us, our team and most importantly our city.Terry is a business guy 1st, as is almost all owners, and business people in this country. 12 years straight of playoffs and no Super Bowl is way more profitable and better ROI, especially in Buffalo then loading up to win 1 Super Bowl.
All the data about McD showing he is likely never make let alone win a Super Bowl does not matter, as infuriating as it is to me and so many. Terry doesn’t care. I mean if they happen to win one along the way great, but “sustained success” means sustained profits for as long as possible. McD may not be good for winning Super Bowl, but he for sure is good for business. As long as that is true, all we can do is hope and pray he overcomes all the historical data, current trends, and likely luck to actually be the outlier and actually win the Super Bowl.
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12 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
Really solid data backing up your viewpoint.
I happen to agree with you.
Also, I would like to add some unscientific data to the equation. Just do an eyeball test and ask yourself why do you think McD is the man? Just look at his playoff history. The Texans loss. The Jags loss. The 13 second heart ripping disaster. The Cinci embarrassment.
Certainly, again not personal. I like the man, and he is a good coach.Bills defense in last 3 playoff losses:
CIN: 27 pts, 412 yards, 30 1st downs, 60% allowed on 3rd/4th down
KC: 42 pts, 552 yards, 30 1st downs, 64% allowed 3rd/4th down
KC: 38 pts, 439 yards, 29 1st downs, 64% on 3rd/4th downs
0 Turnovers forced and 4 total sacks
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7 hours ago, The Wiz said:
Active coach at least. I would assume it's true also.
Not that crazy if you think someone that has been coaching for 6 years though.
There are plenty other who have coached for less time that are on that list as well.
That doesn't make them bad coaches, just haven't been in the league as long.
1). John Madden is the only coach of the 73 Super Bowl coaches in the history of the NFL to have gone longer than McD without making a Super Bowl appearance. Madden did it in Season 8.2). Only 11 coaches won their 1st Super Bowl season 7 or later, only 3 (Tom Landry, John Madden, Bill Cowher) did so with their 1st team as Head Coach.
3). In fact of the 35 different Super Bowl winning head coaches, 29 of them won their 1st championship within the first 5 seasons.
4). No team has ever started the same QB under the same head coach for more than 5 years and seen that duo win its 1st championship.
These historical stats, along with the current trend from last 5 Super Bowls of only 1 defensive coach (Belichick last SB in 2018 season) being defensive get me to the conclusion that McD even making, let alone winning a Super Bowl is extreme long shot.
Yes he could be the exception to all this information, but no one would bet those odds.
Furthermore, it’s not personal for me. I’m pretty sure he is a great man and I know he is a really good head coach. That just doesn’t change the facts, data, and historical trends that tell me he is not likely to get to the ultimate prize with the Bills. I sincerely hope he proves all this information and me wrong.
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28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
To be considered yearly Super Bowl contenders wouldn't you have to be contending yearly for a Super Bowl?
Was thinking the exact same thing.
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1 hour ago, Radar said:
I've been around since the AFL days. Drought actually makes me enjoy this team more. Those Super Bowl losses were tough but I still got to watch a great team. I like football for the game . I would rather have consistent winner year to year than just one year run to the championship. Point is is the championship all we want. Of course we want a ring but all is not lost if we don't get it either.
Would you rather have the Bills get to playoffs 5 straight years and win 1 Super Bowl or get to playoffs 10 straight years and win 0 Super Bowls?
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1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:
Dungy has a ring.
He won it with his 2nd team. John Madden in 1976 the only coach of 66 different ones to make his 1st Super Bowl appearance after season 7 with their 1st team.
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7 hours ago, Augie said:
Firing a coach after a 14-4 season, in that example, is a short leash. Most teams and fan bases would sign up for 14-4 all day long.
John Fox was replaced in Denver after 3 seasons of 13-3, 13-3, 12-4. He had a .719 winning % as Bronco head coach overall, but was 3-4 in playoffs and was fired.
Gary Kubrick came in the very next season in 2015 and Broncos won the Super Bowl.-
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8 hours ago, Gregg said:
Look at Elway as an example. He didn't win a Super Bowl for the longest time (although he did get to and lose 3 of them) but the Broncos managed to build a team around him nearing the end of his career which allowed him to win 2 Super Bowls. The Bills have time to win with Allen, but I am not sure that McDermott will be the coach when they finally win a Super Bowl with him.
A better Bronco example, John Fox. 13-3, 13-3, 12-4, fired. Very next season Gary Kubrick got them across the finish line winning 2015 Super Bowl.
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31 minutes ago, folz said:
I don't think that it is standard to fire a coach who just completed a three-year run of 13-3, 11-6, and 13-3 seasons. Would love to see an example of a coach who was fired immediately after a three-year run like that (my guess is that they are very few and far between
There are lots of coaches in many leagues who were fired after good seasons and great track records.
- Milwaukee Bucks just fired their coach who won them a Championship after getting them the #1 seed in this year playoffs but losing 1st rd.
- Bayern Munich fired their coach mid season while in 1st place while in a 11 years straight of league Championships streak
- Eagles have fired 2 coaches in the past 10 years that both had accomplished more then McD
- Marty Schottenheimer (who many compare McD with) was fired after a 14-4 record but poor playoff performance
- HOF coach Tony Dungy was fired from Bucs after making playoffs
- Bruce Boudreau was fired right after winning the Presidents Trophy in NHL
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11 minutes ago, Buckets said:
Then why fire the guy you have if you don't have a guy in mind that would do better?
Because you never know for 100% sure the new guy will be better, that can’t be the standard for change. It isn’t in people’s own lives, nor should it be in sports.
If a coach is unsuccessful, or some some cases successful but as reached the peak of their ability then an organization may and should look for a new path.
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1 hour ago, ChicagoRic said:
Who is your replacement? Who will absolutely, positively, 100%, be that "better" choice you are clamoring for?
I keep on hearing "McDermott is the problem."
Who is the solution? Someone actually available to be hired.
So NO coach can now be fired unless the team has a replacement already that is “absolutely, positively, 100% be better?”
When has that been the standard in any sport? No coach would EVER be fired if you have to have the “absolutely, positively, 100% be better“ guarantee because you could never guarantee that.
Their are reasonable arguments one could make for McDermott not to be fired, the “absolutely, positively, 100% be better“ one is so stupid and definitely not one of them.
- Rex Ryan who was .500 with Bills and had been to 2 AFC Championship Games with Jets. Was a certain DC from Panthers with no HC experience a “absolutely, positively, 100% better” choice?- 10 Super Bowl winning coaches have later been fired. Their replacements guaranteed to be better?
- Of the 11 coaches who won their 1st Super Bowl in season 7 or later (where McD is now) did so after being fired from previous team. Having already been fired were they guaranteed to be better the who they replaced?
- 3 NBA coaches were fired in last month who had won recent NBA Championships.-
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27 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:
Forty-four Head Coaches have coached 9 or more NFL playoff games.
They are:
Coach W L %
Vince Lombardi 9 1 .900
Tom Flores 8 3 .727
Bill Walsh 10 4 .714
Joe Gibbs 17 7 .708
Bill Belichick 31 13 .705
Sean McVay 7 3 .700
Jimmy Johnson 9 4 .692
Chuck Knoll 16 8 .667
George Seifert 10 5 .667
George Halas 6 3 .667
Bruce Arians 6 3 .667
Kyle Shanahan 6 3 .667
Tom Coughlin 12 7 .632
Andy Reid 22 16 .579
Bill Parcells 11 8 .579
Marv Levy 11 8 .579
Bill Cowher 12 9 .571
Mike Shanahan 8 6 .571
Tom Landry 20 16 .556
Jon Gruden 5 4 .556
Dan Reeves 11 9 .550
John Harbaugh 11 9 .550
Dick Vermeil 6 5 .545
Mike Holmgren 13 11 .542
John Fox 8 7 .533
Sean Payton 9 8 .529
Don Shula 19 17 .528
Mike McCarthy 11 10 .524
Pete Carroll 11 11 .500
Mike Ditka 6 6 .500
Tony Dungy 9 10 .474
Mike Tomlin 8 9 .471
Bud Grant 10 12 .455
Jeff Fisher 5 6 .455
Sean McDermott 4 5 .444
John Robinson 4 6 .400
Chuck Knox 7 11 .389
Paul Brown 4 8 .333
Dennis Green 4 8 .333
Don Coryell 3 6 .333
Marty Schottenheimer 5 13 .278
George Allen 2 7 .222
Steve Owen 2 8 .200Here are all the Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl followed by the number of seasons they coached when they won their first (or only) one:
Andy Reid 21
Bill Cowher 14
Tom Coughlin 12
Tony Dungy 11
Dick Vermeil 10
Pete Carroll 9
John Madden 8
Gary Kubiak 8
Bruce Arians 8
Bill Belichick 7
Don Shula 7
Tom Landry 6
Chuck Knoll 6
Mike Holmgren 5
John Harbaugh 5
Mike Shanahan 5
Sean McVay 5
Jon Gruden 5
Mike McCarthy 5
Bill Parcells 4
Jimmy Johnson 4
Sean Payton 4
Tom Flores 2
Brian Billick 2
Doug Pederson 2
Bill Walsh 3
Joe Gibbs 2
Mike Tomlin 2
Barry Switzer 2
George Seifert 1
Sean McDermott is entering his 7th season as an NFL Head Coach
Of the 11 coaches who won their 1st Super Bowl season 7 or later, only 2 (Cowher, Madden) did so with their 1st team as Head Coach.
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9 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:
That's an interesting stat, not 1 HC l/QB combo after 6 years...wow
No coach/qb combo in NFL history won their 1st Super Bowl together after year 5 together, is the actual stat. I just looked it up again to be sure.
Article a few years old but the stat still holds true currently.
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33 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
The NBA isn't the NFL, but there's still something about what happened in the NBA playoffs this year: the two longest-tenured coaches in the league squared off in the finals.
Continuity matters. Having a consistent plan matters. Even if the Bills fail to advance this year (and based on prior years, "advance" really means "makes the Super Bowl"), it would be a mistake to fire Beane and/or McDermott. But history suggests that would probably be the outcome, since coaches typically don't get multiple chances to make that next step forward.
The NBA had 3 head coaches fired in the last month that had won Championships. Bayern Munich, current 11 years in row winning league fired their coach mid season when they were again in 1st place.
BTW history suggests the opposite of continuity in the NFL to win Super Bowl. No coach/QB combo has won a Super Bowl after 6th year together. In an offensive league, where offensive head coaches reach finals and win Super Bowls McD would literally be bucking current environment and historical data.
Could he win Super Bowl with Bills, sure he could. History and data says he won’t. Seems many here are fine with good coach, with good record who flames out in playoffs.
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I’m beginning to see a trend now for people defending McDermott to just say, “well who are you going to replace him with?”
So as long as one can’t definitively provide a name that will guaranteed be better then McD he can just have his job forever?
Not sure why NFL coaches have such a different standard than NFL players and coaches in other major sports leagues around the world.
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How come no one has mentioned the Alabama ILB, projected mid 3rd and still available.
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Disney made 28 billion in yearly profit in 2022. Yet, they are far from alone in big corporations making billions in profits yet are laying off employees.
Make billions, yet what more, the American Way!!!
How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Billsflyer12
I can appreciate you thoughts on this topic, and you not alone in your thinking. Yet, its not just one piece of historical data, it’s a lot of pieces. These pieces aren't just little ones taken out of context and twisted for a narrative. They are simple, large pieces of information many of which have almost 60 years of longevity.
No piece of data or statistics is 100% certain of a specific outcome, there is always variables, exceptions and outliers. They are tools that help us make predictions on the probability or likelihood of events happening or not. The many pieces of data, along with the on field results make the probability of SB appearance and victory by McD extremely small. Can he overcome these very small odds, yes. I and many others no longer wish to bet the prime of Josh Allen’s window thinking McD will overcome his shortfalls as a coach and the history that says he is unlikely to get the biggest prize.
As I’ve said, I hope he proves me and the data wrong. Thanks you the debate, hope you are well.